The main trade-off in trading seems to lie between early/chance for high profit/low certainty vs. later/lower profit chance/higher certainty. The trick is finding the right balance for your own risk appetite, time you can/want to spend, and, well, preservation of your nerves.
With the benefit of hindsight, my long term bias was always bullish, in that I always imagined that Bitcoin would get up to aroudn $800 in the fullness of time and therefore, I should have only been considering long position trades. With that said, I did get long at $370 on the so called Mike Hearn dump.....Since nobody really knew how much further Bitcoin would dump, I set my stop down beneath 'the bottom' at $360, which then got triggered and I returned to my PC to find that I had just taken a hefty hit, with BTC trading back up at my buy in level, which drove me fkn beserk....this shit totally shreds the nerves......the answer to which would be to trade with an amount of money that doesn't matter to me, which in my case, would be trading with a pointless amount.
i was guessing since we were at 4xx level that the pump will make the price jump up to 8xx-9xx without touching 1k, than a consolidation around 8xx for some weeks/months
Only issue I have with that, is your optimism about the consolidation.
Give me one example, of any market, ever, that moved parabolically higher, and then just kind of consolidated around the very heights of its move?
Do you think this ramp is all just natural organic demand, or is it a full on manufactured pump? If it is a manufactured pump, do you think the pumpers are ramping Bitcoin to make all the little Johnny Bitcoiners rich, or are they doing it to enrich themselves, which by necessaity, means they are going to dump.
Same game over and over again, no matter what the market. Smart Money buys at the bottom, and puts in the floor. They then lift the market up, and then start to ramp, at which point, the smart money starts selling to the public up top, and most crucially, stops supporting the market, which means once the public FOMO fades away, the market crashes.
Of course no one ran to Bitcoin before, because Bitcoin wasn't invented yet.
You knew what happend the last time the economy crashed? Some genius or geniuses invented Bitcoin as a solution.
Gold never solved the problem, maybe Bitcoin won't solve it either, but it is a new option, and it's better than gold. If even a fraction of the people that normally flee to gold realize this, Bitcoin will skyrocket.
Why not take a leap of faith and invest 2-5% of your wealth in Bitcoin just in case? What's the worst that can happen? Is losing 2-5% of your wealth going to ruin you? If it takes of you might end up 10 times as rich.
It's an assymetrical trade if I ever saw one. If you win, you win so big it will change your life, if you lose, meh, you just lost some pocket change, who cares.
Power grids can go down (look at Venezuala for current example of economic collapse), which amongst other things, means no internet.
Mining farms can be shut down, or in the case of war, destroyed.
The only thing that Bitcoin has in common with gold, is that very few hands, control far too much of the stuff.