Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 32. (Read 85774 times)

Ok....so bidding is done by now. Finished 2 hours ago......First sign of dumpage came about 4 hours ago....

....yep..big dumps in BTC are even harder to predict (at least the start of them), than the pumps......such is the nature of such a controlled and manufactured market.

I expect plenty shorts who will be ultimately 'proven right', will get their ball's squeezed here before the big dump finally comes.....which is why I am staying the fk out of it.

I will temper my statement by saying, bids are open from 24 hours for australian auction (from this morning, to tomorrow midnight australian time..)

So the big dump may not come until later this week...

Yep..I read your post somewhere.....forgot where though.

I already called this a few pages back, yes it is an auction pump, screw over bidders, maintain control of the BTC market.

Interesting that post the Australian auction, we just had a 3K Mkt dump on the most volumous, and by now probably the most liquid USD exchange, Bitfinex. Whoever dumped these coins, didn't give a fuck that they would be dropping spot by $30. Perhaps they see any price up in this range as a raging glittering profit? Perhaps they are cracking open the champagne right now...or perhaps they are readying their next market dump of Bitcoin?

Whatever the case, when u start to see these huge price insensitive Market Dumps in Bitcoin, it is usually a very ominous sign. In the past, these dumps were generally initiated on Bitstamp, cos Stamp was the 'best banked' exchange, the most liquid, and the most trusted. But Stamp has lost it's mantle these days to Finex, and Finex may show itself in the future, to be the 'cash out exchange'.

Not looking to take any short trade at this point in time, as whether Bitcoin takes a big dump, pretty much depends on the will of just a few whales and what their plans for BTC are, the time for the little guy to start eyeing up short trades is when the bearish momentum is underway, and all the FOMO buyers, slowly but surely, turn into panic sellers.

Perhaps this wasn't a 'Halving Pump' at all, but another BTC auction pump much like those we have seen in the past, whereby it was in somebodies interests, to get Bitcoin ramped in the run up to this auction?

No..I amn't shorting cos of the auction. Bitcoin needn't just turn on a sixpence and tank just cos the auction. If anything, I strongly suspect one final FOMO burst, up to around $800, and then they will let the dumping commence.

So not doing anything right now...except paper trading and not posting them on here....cos doing so, seems to be a jinx.

5 straight wins on the bounce, (or 4, and one damn good call, for which the entry didn't trigger)

Betting actual money also seems to be a jinx:



IMPT 1 19/06/2016
Long
https://www.tradingview.com/x/P2TnomPw/

Result: Win

Summary.
Strong sell off and bounce. Target was aiming for notch. Poor risk reward ratio, as had to risk to the lows, which were a long way down, and came within an inch of being stopped out, Target was hit on what seems like a total FU move.


IMPT 2 19/06/2016
Long
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sT7Mgjba/

Result: Win
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vKzfyf3M/

Summary. Higher highs, and higher lows, PoC target, simple as that. Ended popping quite a bit higher.



IMPT 3 19/06/2016
Long
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RD0e0bLW/ (Davometer, basically)

Result: Win

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jUdEXngr/

Took ‘profits’ (lol :-< ) a ball hair way from target, cos that is what I am gonna do everytime, if I see spot like 2% away from my target.



IMPT 4 20/06/2016
Short

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GyBiqwlN/

Seemed like a good spot for a correction. Gap Retrace Entry, Minor PoC target. In reality...(if I were playing with real funds....that trade is just begging to get FU'd, I think)

Update:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QqWz8RTU/


Result: Win
https://www.tradingview.com/x/g4xvD38F/

Good chance that I would have pulled this on pullback from minor 61.8% tag had this been a real trade.


Missed Trade 1:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2vGm5IU9/

Went for the 50% instead of the Gap Entry on this Hoag trade. Silly Boy. Will see what happens with it, but looking very good so far.

Result
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yaadtlni/

Missed the trade entry by a ball hair, but aimed way too high…..had target been underside of
PoC, then target would have been hit. As it happen, spot came right back and actually triggered my entry and may now go on to work, but lets face it, had profits not been taken, this trade would have been scratched.



Conclusion. I can do this shit pretty well, as long as I don't bet real money, and/or put my reputation on the line by posting trades in advance, and that tells me that my analytical process, is hugely affected by emotions. Emotional response to losing money, and emotional reponse to wanting to get one right fkn up the r0ach.

@mat: are you shorting because of today's auction now?

I'm waiting for correction mostly because of the auction.

On the other hand, I'm watching this, and it looks like it's breaking up. Perhaps fake out before the correction?

It would be a fair comment to make, that there tends to be a bit of a sell off, in the wake of a seized Bitcoin auction. Tomorrow, is the auction of BTC that have been seized by Australian Police.

Haven't taken this...was looking for entry on retrace to $744, which didn't quite materialise, and I was busy blabbing away in a chatroom, and not paying attention to LTF charts for break down:





Guaranteed to win, cos I aint in it.



Update: Thank fuck I never took this....that would be damn annoying. Sell signals were followed by a Sell Off, but target was not hit:



Now keeping an eye on BTC for further signs of both bullish and bearish resolution.

Personally, I am disappoint. Didn't dump far enough to bother buying for me.

I guess that's better than what you were doing.

Expecting Nothing, and Doing Nothing atm:

is this an asymmetric trade again?

Yeah, except the plan with catching the knife. I waited and then had to go to sleep at 3 am (my time), so I moved my bids
to the worst scenario area, and - obviously - missed the local bottom, because I slept one hour too long.
But if this is to pump further, it should be range bound for a couple of days.

Original margin entry was $440

Damn well played sir.

Ur Fiat is not up anything, until your capital is denominated in Fiat....been there done it before with Bitcoin, sitting staring at massive gains, only to see them turn to dust, and then less than dust, in a very short period of time.

This pump is being totally engineered, and the only folks guaranteed to win, are those who are doing the pumping, and who will then ultimately decide when the dumping starts. The rest of us just need to pick our profit taking targets and live with them, which is a very hard thing to do....Sell at $800, make a huge profit on trade, then watch Bitcoin hit $900...what are most people gonna do? This is why in the end, the majority lose in markets. Markets have to be this way, otherwise there wouldn't be any profit taking potential to attract people to markets in the first place.


btw.....Big confiscated BTC auction coming up on 20th June, (Australian time, so that will be more like evening of 19th for those living in US).....last big BTC auction was back in early November 2015, 'funnily enough'.

Hold it for 6 months and don't sell under 10x and see if that works.