Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 63. (Read 85774 times)

These two patterns are ones I've found very interesting - I'm not a chart guy but the wedge pattern pattern is too perfect and the fact that the current rise correlates very well with the closure of the wedge, to me, seems very bullish. The fact that this multi-month wedge resulted from an initial run-up in price suggested that the wedge, when it finally broke, would break up and not down.

Also looking at the longer-term resistance line from the ATH on a log chart, it lines up extremely well with many of the peaks within the wedge pattern, finally breaking above at the same breakout point we see from 420-470. Not sure what, if anything, this implies but it all seems very bullish to me and the recent price action has supported my thoughts on it. Went long an additional coin on the 15th just to add to my stash, but I'm a holder and not a trader so I don't intend to sell any of my coins anytime soon.

EDIT: I'm clearly retarded and don't know how to post images directly

You're still using invalid TA.  The price was around $420 and there was a coordinated shakeout that dropped price to $408 or whatever with the goal of triggering some stoploss to buy lower.  This was the beginning of the halving rise bull run.  You keep pulling up TA from like 6 months ago trying to link that to now, which is completely useless and you'll continue to lose yourself money if you try to trade that ancient TA.

The fundamentals are vastly different now due to block size halving very soon, and there was also a very strong floor at $420 before the coordinated shakeout which instantly rebounded.  When I see you posting charts from half a year ago when the price was $380, it's like looking at some student's first attempt at charting in freshmen year at college because that data is worthless.  There are times when you cannot build valid charts because the data doesn't exist yet, and this is one of them.

Yep...cos I don't really believe in Bitcoin at the end of the day.

I bought gold and silver years ago, watched them double in value, and then watched the gains get totally wiped out, and then some. But I am still holding the entire lot. Obviously, with them being physical metals that I hold in my hand, I just can't buy/sell at the click of a button, and that helps with the perpetual holding, but, I believe in them. I believe that these coins have intrinsic value, and always will do.

Because you have literally the weakest hands on earth, even for a fidgety day trader.

Rule 1)  Never buy anything that you can't hold for at least a week if something goes wrong

Rule 2)  Never buy anything without envisioning an entry and exit point date, and realistic low-ball price estimate of start and finish of those dates (which you never seem to do and just play it by 4hr charts constantly panicing)

*If you're already in the black, you can use Bitcoin as a store of value and disregard rule #2 since the alternative stores of value aren't very good anyway.

I dunno...

Whenever I have put concrete faith in Bitcoin in the past, I have ended up getting slapped in the face by whale dick.

It can also help to refrain from using leverage. You will be able to hold onto your positions longer because at a given point in time the price is likely to become both higher and lower.

I absolutely agree with your point. That is why I took a position before the ending of the very big triangle. From a day-trading point of view, it sucks to enter after such a violent rise(with low volume). On the other hand, the triangle broke to the upside.

But it gives high confidence in your decisions and also in the strength of your hands if you have a concrete perspective for bitcoin in the near future. I expect bitcoin to be in the next years in a price region of 3-8k$. (The halvening is a part of the puzzle, that makes these regions available) This makes it easier to hold even if the market turns to the downside of a trade. (and ease of mind)

Yep...If you hit the trend at or near the bottom, then it is much more plain sailing.....BTC tanks $10-$15 bucks and takes out a few late entrants Stop Levels? Meh, see how the charts are looking in a few hours, or a day or two and then decide on your actions.

If however, you are on the wrong end of the trade from the bottom, or near the bottom, and you get run over a couple of times, then look to join the party at what might be a very risky, late stage of the game, then aside from being confused and disorientated, you are from a trading point of view, in a very vulnerable position. When BTC started to correct and take out the weak stops, I had to abandon my trade plan and exit at scratch. The mental torment of shorting the rise and losing, then going long on the rise, just before a brutal correction, would have finished me.  

And others are still in the game since 419$..

Where can I get a look at Coinbase trading, in detail, and most importantly, Coinbase Volume?

At 20:12 today, on both Finex and Bitstamp, some entity fired off a 2.5K BTC market orders, thus triggering this pump. This is a clear sign of coordinated market engineering, by some entity with very, very, deep pockets.

I of course, scratched my trade when Bitcoin came back down to my entry point, as having already been run over trying to short the rise, I really would not have been able to tolerate any heat with Bitcoin reversing back over me.

It has not escaped my attention either, that the minute I started this thread, was the very minute I hit a fucking abysmal run of form. Perhaps I am jinxing myself, or perhaps the very act of posting my market thoughts, and especially my trades publically, is altering my mental internals somehow, and causing me to fuck up? My confidence is shattered, this is brain damage of the highest order, and I aint even making money. I am either losing, or not making, when I wouldashouldacoulda.

If this just goes apeshit right now, then I will be the one who misses the Halving pump of 2016, cos I just can't touch this now.

Coinbase volume is over stamps today i wouldnt call that tiny.  And look other exchanges are chasing its price.

You think the tiny little itty bitty volume on Coinbase is leading Bitcoin?

(leading doesn't mean 'highest price'. leading means which exchange's activity determines direction)

Coinbase is leading the rally though, this rise is being fueled by more than just manipulators.

If I were fortunate enough to have been riding this bull up from $420 (cos that in my view was 'the start' of this move, I would be taking all my chips off the table right about now).

Much of the upside volume on this move wasn't actually bulls rampantly buying, but bears covering their shorts. I was one of them. As you will be able to see from this chart:

https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc

around 6K of BTC swaps were wiped out on the rise on Finex alone (I shudder to think about all the poor suckers on OKCoin Futures), and the BTC swaps are now putting in a double bottom. It may seen counter intuitive that the amount of short positions should crater prior to a big correction (i.e. cratering shorts were what was powering the rise), but this is how it works, and this is how 'they' take money out the market. If you were able to overlay the BTC swaps and the BTC spot price, you would see how BTC spot rose, whilst BTC swaps cratered.

Here is another chart:

https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd

That is the amount of USD swaps taken out for BTC long positions. As you can see, it has hit a peak, and put in a double top. As counter intuitive as it may seem, when the volume of USD swaps (for long positions) is at it's highest point, is generally when Bitcoin is due for some brutal downside. Again, this is how 'they' take money from the market, and why 'the majority', always lose.


'They' drive Bitcoin towards the easiest to reach, or most lucrative liquidity pools, each and everytime, and I say that there aint too many more cherries up above within easy touching distance, so I expect a strong correction is incoming, which will wipe a lot of USD swaps off the slate, and will see a big pile up of shorts positions, ready to be wiped out on 'the bounce', and then again on the next pump.

I've been buying the dips for a while now, unloaded some twice ~$450 when my fav indicator RSI showed overbought, and replaced with a good profit, most of which I reinvested.
This time I think will go thru the 450/500 band, probably overshoot on some fomo buying and short covering maybe as far as $550/600 where, depending on circs, I'll be looking to sell into any further strength with one eye on daily 10 period RSI >80 to confirm.
I'll stop everything out at $340, still overall profit; if we get back down there something major will be wrong.

If this trade works, then Bitcoin probably going down, and this is looking like a much more solid trade than the one above which I look certain to leave at scratch.

After the absolute nightmare I have had shorting this rise, I simply cannot tolerate any further failed trades on this BTC move. Psychological damage would far outweigh the financial damage and also any financial gains that may be gotten from toughing out any corrections. Stop has been moved to break even on this trade. I refuse to lose here.

Perhaps there is wisdom to the words of 'Roach', when in the 'MatTheCat Reverse Indicator' thread which he kindly started in my honour, he stated "ooh...look out bulls, MatTheCat is long. A MatTheCat long is the epitomy of 'weak hands'? I shall analyse outcomes and behaviour patterns here closely.

I finally talked Mat out of being an idiot.  I don't think I've ever actually lost money on Bitcoin, so next time you get some kind of "i think I've outsmarted the market, hair brain scheme", just ask me first.

500+ should be first target with some dips in between  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/k5Sf1lp5-It-s-about-time/