Thanks for the analysis. So the "prediction" model is based on the "numbers" that happened in the past, and assuming based on the previous tread.
Are you going to improve the model using more factors such as reward halving, development in blockchain discussion, and the rise of ethereum, and so on...?
Are you going to improve the model using more factors such as reward halving, development in blockchain discussion, and the rise of ethereum, and so on...?
The 'reward halving' is something that I have in the back of mind, but not something I can factor into TA. Like the rest of the things you mention, these things are fundamental events mostly for consumption by the chattering classes, to give em something to get excited and/or fearful about, give them some handle to justify their positions. For all we know, we may have had the 'Halving' in Nov 2015. $400 BTC after the halving, would still allow Bitcoin to be profitable to mine. I shall let TA tell me when/if 'The Halving' is coming.
What I am using in the above TA, is Fib retracements, Harmonics, momentum divergences, and Market Structure. Collect all that data together, then decide whether the balance of probability lies with a bearish outcome, or a bullish outcome, and then to what extent.
?