Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! - page 64. (Read 85774 times)

In Bitcoin, a much larger amount of money is in on the long game rather than the short game.  Depending on what percent of float you think is newly mined coins being dumped, miners that stop selling for 80 days could do pretty insane things to price.  We already know the majority of hodlers aren't going to be selling a dime till post-halving, so with hodlers and miners not selling at the same time, your short term TA based on old markets can get destroyed.  It might just gradually float all the way up to $550-600 before we see the big volume come of people trying to sell thinking they can buy back lower.  But...maybe they will all die to a coordinated short squeeze instead.

He who refused to buy Bitcoin at $435, cos it was 'overextended', has just done the unthinkable and taken a long position, against all his better judgements:




This should be the last leg up before punishment time.

My TA 101 Skills are telling me that this time Bitcoin must surely be overextended (but everyone seen how that worked out last couple of times):




But since I already been run over twice attempting to stand in the path of the bull, I don't suppose there is any reason why Bitcoin couldn't run over the last of the shorters here and stop em all out (and then correcting like a bitch), so here is the long scenario. BTC breaks $454 on Finex, then she going up to around $470:




At this point in time, I don't think I shall be looking to trade either of those outcomes should they materialise. Getting stopped for a 3rd time trying short the same move, would be brutal and opting to go long, and then getting wiped out as Bitcoin corrects like a bitch, would be utterly fucking demoralising. My confidence has already been shaken and I can't risk picking up any further injury here.

Not saying this will happen over 1 day period.

But I think the halving should be viewed coming in less of a immediate price reaction. You should peoples reactions coming after a week or so from then on out I feel.

Unless theres a ton of buy orders all across on all exchanges then I dont know.

"They" are unable to force the market down.  If  they really wanted to waste money trying, they might be able to drop it to 435-440, but it would be completely pointless when they would lose more than they gain in an attempt to buy lower, which is why it will not happen.  It's already found far too solid of a floor after it's recent rise as well.  There is nothing to "pull back" to.

Primarily, I am looking for a pullback down to trendline, and for bullish resolution of that pullback, then I will go long Bitcoin.

I may attempt a short on that, I may not.

But you shouldn't be so down on the shorters. It was after all shorters covering their positions  that helped fuel this rather weak pump. I would say that all the weak hand shorters have been flushed out and if there isn't enough organic interest coming into Bitcoin at this point in time (and going by the shit volume, I would say that there isn't), then back down we go to wipe the floor with all the margin longs which have been piling up in eager anticipation of $10K Bitcoin.

This is how 'they' work this rigged p.o.s market, and I was a fool for standing in the way of them basing my counter trend trades on a whole bunch of technical indicators and market reversal patterns. If strong enough hands can make more money pushing this market up, then they gonna push it up regardless.

As it stand, all the shorters may have been cleaned out, but every n00b and his dog thinks BTC is about to break out and shoot up to $1K or wotever, so too dangerous to take a trade right now....one more unconvincing pop up above the recent high, with even more margin longs piling up for not very much more upside, and I may reconsider a short.

BFX USD swaps (margin longs) are almost up against record highs. The two previous highs were around $32 Million, and occured on July 17th, 2014, and then again on August 4th, 2015. Go take a look at bitcoinwisdom and tell me how all those margin long traders fared.

Mat, have you lost your fucking mind?  It's a bull market, you got raped shorting, now you're trying to find a new entry point to short? LOL

Why not do what any logical human would do and attempt to find a long point instead?  If you really want to donate free money to me, I guess go ahead and short so I can squeeze you.

I finally discovered your critical malfunction.  You're so angry that the BTC market has taken money from you in bad trades, you now want it to die and all your trades are based on hoping Bitcoin will die when it's just not going to.  The MatTheCat rage trading strategy.

The next source of MatTheCat fail:

Low liquidity, low volume ETF that has gotten drunk, has a huge premium on it, and has gotten way ahead of itself.

OkCoin Futures is where all the big Chinese miners hedge.

With that said, the Vol Impetus on this ETF looks a bit healthier (in relative terms) on that rise than on the BTC exchanges themselves. Also notice that the buying pressure in Bitcoin has come mostly during North American trading hours....perhaps this ETF fund was doing the buying, when nobody else was selling? Roach made a very good point a few posts above, about Miners hoarding BTC, in order to dump them post-halving, at presumably much higher prices. This may 'legitimise' the recent rise on record low volume (for a pump this year). rptielia will tell you otherwise, but rising price on low/decreasing volume is generally bearish as hell.

Mat, what is your stance on this?

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GBTC#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}

These charts are not accurately aligned, but I think with a bit of scrutiny, most people here will be able to see the contrarian indicator at work. The time to go short BTC, is not when BTC swaps (for margin short positions) are relatively high, but when they have crashed down to lows, like they have just done recently.



Update:





From looking closely at BFX swaps data.....time to short, is when BFX swaps is (counter intutively) at extreme lows....and the time to go long, is (again counter intutively) when BFX swaps are at extreme highs.... When the swap totals are in between, you are looking for signs of a battle being waged, which in the first instance, Shorts must have lost and gotten slaughtered, before regrouping to attack the bull once again (but always in much lower numbers the the amount that the bull slaughtered previoulsy).


What you are probably wanting to see here, now that BTC has had it's Short Squeeze driven break out, is spot continue to rise, as shorts also rise, but the bull is running out of steam and technically weak, whilst the shorts are waking up.......

Yep...sounds perfectly plausible to me.

It likely means miners stopped selling, so welcome to 90 days of enormous supply crunch.  The volume will be turned on when we reach a level where some random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving, which is not going to be below $500 by anyone's standards.  Then the long, drawn out game starts of people trying to sell high, buy lower, or short, with others trying to squeeze or lock out sellers and forcing them to buy back in.  Then we get the volatility that can do just about anything except go below the first double bottom after volume kicks in...another asymmetric trade.

Of course there is going to be swings and corrections, but you're not playing right.  You need to have an open mind to the opposite side of the trade to make an accurate decision.  It is easy to get focused on 'the chart shows this, so it MUST be going to happen this way'.

No, it just means it's going to go up and if you aren't already in, you're gonna get left behind, standing there with your dick in your hand.

So let me get this straight.

Because of this 'asymmetric trading', Bitcoin is going to go up and up and up, and just keep going up, and never look back down until the halving?

erm....right.

 

Do you know what the word asymmetric trade means?  It means whoever goes long right now, even if it did drop back to 420 by some miracle (not likely), they wouldn't lose a dime because you can easily just hold the long until halving rise is over and still be in mega profit.  That is who you are trading against and why you lost.

Whatever.

I stated in this thread at $439, that I suspected $450 was going to hit, but I wasn't going to trade it cos there was now too much risk involved. If I didn't take my long then, I absolutely cannot take a long now at $445...(I also recommended that other people take this trade, cso the ones I call but dont take have a tendency of coming in...the fucking silly twat that I am)

Fact is, I opted to be a bear, in the face of the bull, and I have been run over. Naturally, I will not be alone in this. Now, there will be many in my shoes, who will be tempted to FOMO buy right here, or on the break of the $447 high, and what do you think these FOMO buyers are going to do when 'they' decide it's time to dump Bitcoin back down a level or two? FOMO buyers here, who will buying up whale BTC in upper $440s, will be panic sellers when they should be buyers down in low $430/$420s, where the whales will buy back all the BTC that they sold $20+ up the market.

Conspicuous wall activity more often than not, is indicative of whale shenanigans, other than the organic mood of the market.

Mat are you trying to lose money?  This isn't a fake wall on Cornbase.  It will not be pulled.  The new floor is $440.  It doesn't matter what all this jibberish you're talking is when people can just decide what levels to support.  Shorters already paid for this price increase for us, now we're staging to break the triple top from months ago.