Topic: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 28. (Read 6291 times)

I don't know why some members insist on comparing gambling to investing or trading. They are completely two different thing. Investment or trading is a business and it requires some knowledge and some skills while gambling is nothing but an entertainment activity and you should not expect making money from it.

The formula is simple. If you want to be 100% sure to win the lottery, you need to buy all the tickets.

That is definitely accurate math about the winning as an individual against the entire population that is participating in the contest. Well, if we can calculate the exact winning % like that then there are also insane formulas that can actually tell you what is the probability of hitting a winning number or exactly predicting the correct winning number with the proper formulas. I am not sure how much true it is but I have seen one YouTube video claiming that a mathematician was accurately able to predict the winning combination number using his maths and end up buying enough tickets to win that number. It was some sick maths that he would need to buy how many tickets from different locations of distribution channel. I think if you know the math then you can do anything with the lotteries.

Despite having similarities to the untrained eye, gambling and investing are two distinct fields. It is intellectually lazy to assume that everyone is merely using the facade of investment to feed their gambling compulsions. You seem to be misunderstood at the core.

While I am aware that individuals may have a propensity for gambling, to categorize everyone as naive and careless is to ignore the subtleties of economic behavior. Both economies and investment methods change throughout time. It would be a serious error to dismiss this growth as simply gambling.

Yes, not everyone can make a living from gambling, but isnt that true of all professions? A select handful do well. Shaming those who fail and blaming others for their failure smacks of conceit and oversimplification.

I think that most people who give that argument are hiding or even unaware themselves about the real reason behind their behavior: that they really want to gamble, or are already addicted, but it's not their fault, but environment's. That's called external locus of control and characteristic of childish/irresponsible people.

Most people shouldn't think about making a living out of gambling (only a few so called influencers manage to do that by diversifying their sources of income) and, in the case they did, they shouldn't remember that if anything goes wrong, as it is expected to be, fault will be theirs and not government's nor whoever else's.

ALL you said is true indeed, I think we had  a discussion on this board or in the gambling discussion board, about those who take gambling as an main and only source of income for livelihood, it is a very bad attitude and something that we all must discourage..

Gambling is not a bad thing to do as a side hustle or hobby, it should never be taken seriously, but unfortunately, many people in our societies today take gambling as their only source of livelihood, and when you try to find out why, they tell you the government have refused to create jobs, if government refuse to create jobs, what stops us as individuals from creating Jobs for ourselves, as well as for others?
It's a question I've always asked.

"More chances, more tickets"! In fact, it's a favorite among those who, shall we say, don't grasp the finer aspects of chance very well. You're correct to point out that there are a large number of tickets, which inevitably decreases each individual's odds. When you pause to consider it, it's fairly obvious. Sadly, not all of them do! For a great number of people, the entire lottery system is merely a means to request something

It was astute of you to observe that people's faith is diminishing. It's hilarious, and I don't mean that in a humorous manner, that the safety measures have caused more problems than they've solved. What about your friend's decision not to vote? Very intelligent, indeed. When an avian has the opportunity to become wealthy, is it not unusual for it to consider its options so thoroughly

You just said everything I hate about gambling and lotteries, in everything that people can make money from, many people are already doing the same and hoping for the same thing you are hoping for, how can you possibly win? Only if you can do things differently.

Gambling and Lotteries are too far away from making possibilities through them, but learning a skill and becoming hard working is far more reliable than anything else, I would rather learn a new skill than becoming a gambler because my dream won't be bases on luck and fantasy.

If you want your dream to reach you for real you must not depend on fantasy, Making it in life is not an easy goal, and if all you have is gambling you are on a path of fantasy and there is a 95% chance that it will remain a fantasy forever.

You can be a gambler and still have goals you can accomplish with hard-working and skills, Don't take gambling too seriously, instead try having fun out of them with few dollars at stake.

The example you give is too simple. In lotteries like Euromillions, the possible combinations are more than 2 million, 2.118.760. So if you buy one ticket, the probability of winning is 1/2.118.760, that is practically 0. And if you buy 2 or 10 tickets with different combinations, it is still practically 0.


That would be a waste of money. The euromillions gives out 50% of the prize money, so even if you hypothetically bought all the numbers to win, you would win half of what you would have spent buying tickets.

You are correct.
Buying more tickets certainly increases your chances of winning but it doesn't guarantee you will win. Just to give an example to explain this: let's assume there are 100 tickets. If you buy 1 ticket, your chance of winning is 1%. If you buy 10 tickets, your chance of winning will increase to 10%.
However, even if you buy 99 tickets, there is still a 1% chance you won't win.
What makes people believe that buying more ticket doesn't change anything is the fact that there are millions of sold tickets. You will need a fortune to have a reasonable chance of winning.

Mathematics does not lie, Buying more ticket with different number combination increase the chance of winning regardless it is minuscule or not.  And that is not a misunderstanding IMO, the only misunderstanding would be if the buyer thinks that if he buy 1000 ticket he will win which is non-factual since the probability is applied here.  Meaning even a person with 1 ticket can beat him because of the given probability.



I also agree, and only few people have the capability to analyze and see through the trick of the lottery.  Imagine if a person is aiming for a consolation prize of a thousand dollar, and keep on buying for 10 years everyday, he could have earn way more than what he aimed for and those who have critical thinking will only notice that.

^ That is the point and I think your observation about the surge in people purchasing lottery tickets, with the misconception that buying more tickets increases their chances of winning, underscores a common misunderstanding about probability. The idea that more tickets equate to a higher probability fails to account for the widespread distribution of tickets throughout the country, making the odds of winning quite challenging or pretty slim. This move, while intended to protect the privacy of winners, seems to have unintentionally contributed to a decline in public belief in the legitimacy of the lottery. It is interesting how people's perceptions can shift based on the way information is presented.
However, your decision not to participate in the lottery is a reflection of your critical thinking and reluctance to invest in something that lacks transparency and clear evidence of its fairness. Your stance on the matter is rooted in rationality and skepticism, which is commendable.

speaking of lotteries, in my country there are many lotteries and every day, but there is a lottery that pays a lot of money and the winner is announced every weekend, when there is no winner the value of the prize increases, so months usually go by without appearing a single winner and when there is a winner, they hide the winner's face, so I keep asking myself the following: how can I believe that someone really won this lottery in my country if I don't see the winners' faces? When I say that, people close to me keep telling me that they can't show the winner's face because he would be targeted by criminals, but that doesn't make any sense because in my country and even in many countries people are always posting everything they do, so nowadays everyone knows things

even the person who wins the lottery, their neighbors will find out about it, so there's no point in hiding it, but until today they continue to hide it and I don't believe in the lottery in my country and until last year I saw a lot of people buying a lot of lottery tickets , it was something unbelievable what I saw, people soon thought that when they bought a lot of tickets then their chances of winning a lot of money would be higher, but they didn't think that those tickets are being sold all over my country and there are a lot of people buying, as a consequence getting it right is not easy. but when they started not showing the winner's face, then people lost hope, people don't really believe that there is any winner

and this is the problem, lotteries are the worst thing people put money into, there is no guarantee that they will ever win, there is no proof that anyone really wins, there is no proof that it is not something manipulated, that's why I myself seeing that my country's lottery ticket costs 0.50$ I don't buy the ticket, I have no interest in playing the lottery, I see lotteries as something manipulated, at least I speak in the case of my country

Depends on what kind of lottery we are dealing with, here in my country there are so many lottery games that being drawn every single day.
Addiction may happen even if there is only 1 lottery game per day because addiction is not about how many available games out there but it is about how people deal with their mind.
Even if there is only 1 game per week, someone may become addicted to the lottery by spending too much money in single game.
I'm talking about lottery which is available in my country, a type of lottery in which people can buy thousands tickets per game as long as they have the money to buy.

You are right that mate lottery addictions is quite mild than addicting to the casino which is pretty bad cause we all know that in casino there are many easy ways to bet more than once in an hour so there are many possible outcome that you will Lost more in casino than lottery as we all know that in lottery we need to wait the specific time before we know the outcome of our bet so in short its better to play in lottery than in casino.

Yes, of course, I agree with that position, there are many people who have a lot of faith in lotteries and even if they have been playing all those years without stopping and without winning, they will continue playing because they have all their faith that one day they will have that touch of luckily it will favor them, I really admire those positions, because for me the probabbablides are very low for a person to win, however it is respectable and everyone has their culter regarding games, bets, lotteries, raffles, I saw Looking at it from a point of view more towards this of lotteries and raffles, some raffles that they do, are more likely to be won, for example here they do raffles diodne the biggest prize is a car of the year, apart from that they have prizes specials of around 150 motorcycles, and the price of the raffle ticket is 1000 dollars, and it is impressive, because the tickets are sold in eusti'n of 2 days, they are not sold complete, but they do pay, and the majority of People who buy them are from the USA.

It looks impressive because many have won these raffles and really those who give the highest prize keep that car of the year, here to this because many think that the people who do this raffle have a lot of friendship with the government, because they go to the capital to look for the cars of the moment and the only thing that arrives like this is the cars for government agents, so there is always something there that is money that is given to them so that they can continue doing this, some duicen do money laundering, others say No, but I do agree that they do this with the authorization of the governor so that the police and guards of the country let them pass, besides that this is a very lucrative business, the lottery is done on a triple basis and those who win the motorcycles is with the terminal, which seems impressive to me, so in this aspect the people who play have that probability that when they are in the USA they suddenly call them and tell them that they won the motorcycle, or the jackpot, these things happen here always.

It depends on your enjoyment of gambling games because many people like sports betting more than other gambling games and think they have more luck at sports betting, so they make sports betting their main gambling game. But people who bought lottery tickets a long time ago or even a few years ago will still buy them and will not move to other gambling games, even just to play slots, which are both luck-based gambling games.

This depends on their preference for the gambling game because if they see around them that many people are buying lottery tickets and someone has managed to win regardless of the number, it will make them want to try to get a win too. And environmental factors also influence a person to choose his gambling game and he will also follow what other people play. But if no one is gambling in his neighbourhood, he may find someone else and share his favourite game. When they talk, there will be curiosity about the gambling games they often play and it will make them want to try them even though they don't have sufficient knowledge about them.

Well, it's quite interesting to know your point of view, but buying lottery tickets, maybe playing slots in casinos, can mean the same thing, the odds are very scattered if you try to win, however I lean towards something, yes We need to do something with more proecision and use our knowledge in sports, I think that when we do sports betting there are more chances of winning for us as punters, at least in boxing, UFC, football I feel that I have a very good chance of winning when I predict the results, That is to say, to win or lose, the exact scores, well, I do appreciate that it is at another level of difficulty, but based on the sports activities, if we take them to the level of sports betting, if I am inclined, there are more chances of winning. In fact, many casino and betting players put sports betting as their first option because it is easier to win, or for some it is easier.

I say these things because most of the time when we have run into some friends, who know a lot about football, they are very aware of each game, of each movie made by the players, coaches, championships, the news is up to date. Many sports channels are up to date, in fact on the internet, on Instagram and social networks because they are kept very up to date, and by having so much information about a specific sport or match, predictions can be made that are probably very close to whatever is going to happen, then for me that means that the chances of winning in a sports bet are greater than winning in any casino game, as long as the bettor knows about the sport, otherwise if he bets for the sake of betting and by sheer luck, because it would no longer fall into the category, because it is simply gambling, which for me no longer makes any kind of sense, everything would go to another level, however, that point is what I want to highlight.

That means gambling games can make people keep coming back to gambling no matter what results they get. It was as if something was lacking in their everyday life if they went one day without gambling. And fortunately, buying lottery tickets is cheap so people can buy them every day and it doesn't seem to be a burden for them because they still keep hoping to hit the jackpot. And when someone wins the jackpot, they are even more excited to keep buying lottery tickets, especially if the winner is their neighbor. They will buy lottery tickets more and more often as if the time for them to become winners is approaching.

And it seems that the people who keep buying lottery tickets also have an income to keep buying lottery tickets and only focus on the lottery and not other gambling games. But what is expected when they become winners is that they can really change their lives because, at that time, they already have a lot of money to fulfill their needs without difficulty.

In addition to your input, It’s very hard to become addicted on lottery because there’s only few games available per day and placing bets on regular basis is very time consuming since you will need to go personally on a lottery outlet just to bet. Typically, lotter players only place bet during specific day per week except for those who reside near a lottery outlet.

Nevertheless, Lottery addiction is much more mild than the typical casino addiction because of the slow phase of the game. Buying bulk tickets is just more on a hobby instead of addiction because he can only place limited bets on every draw due to time constraints of the game.

I see no difference with playing gambling games, betting on sports and buying lottery tickets, the same way people are buying lottery tickets hoping to win the jackpot some day, even when they have done this for several years with no luck, same also we can find gamblers who have been playing slot, casino games, or betting on sports matches for several years without hitting any significant winning, and yet, they never give up, they keep trying, keep pushing and hoping that one day, luck will smile on them.

So that spirit of never giving is not something that is peculiar to lottery players alone, it is very common in the amongst gamblers, and I personally do not see any crime in that as long as the gambler or player have other dependable sources of income that helps support their gambling or lottery playing activities, as well helps keep the player and his or her family well and away from financial crises.