Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 36.

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on July 10, 2023, 11:32:24 PM

Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on July 10, 2023, 02:06:05 PM

We have alot of them here in Nigeria who are lotto data analyst their specialty is to analyzed the previous winning numbers, and from there, they are able to predict the number that will win in the present time, we locally call them Forecasters, and to be sincere with you, I've never believed that it is any where near possible to win lotto with such forecasting, many of them forecast lotto winning numbers, and yet, their win ratio is still very much lower than those who do not forecast..

Winning the lottery is purely based on luck and God by your side, analyzing previous winning data is merely a way to just pass time, that is make time run faster.

Well, I guess they'll do voodoo as well to make certain numbers jump. Mathematical analysts in Europe know that mathematical events are idependent, and so the fact that certain numbers have come up in the past does not make it more or less unlikely that they will come up this time. To give a simple example, heads 10 times does not make tails more likely the next time, however counter-intuitive that may seem.

So, yes, analysing previous numbers is not for predicting future numbers, but more of a hobby.

OK, yeah, I think "more of a hobby" is indeed a better way to describe it, or a better phrase to use Grin

.

I've always seen people who do this things as jobless, many of them will sit in the lotto shop from morning till night, doing nothing other than holding that big paper to their face all day.
And the most deceptive part is that, anytime, probably a number they predicted shows up in the winning numbers, they are over joyed, over confident that they know what they are doing, where as, it is just fate that brought that number in amongst the winning numbers.

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Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on July 10, 2023, 02:06:05 PM

We have alot of them here in Nigeria who are lotto data analyst their specialty is to analyzed the previous winning numbers, and from there, they are able to predict the number that will win in the present time, we locally call them Forecasters, and to be sincere with you, I've never believed that it is any where near possible to win lotto with such forecasting, many of them forecast lotto winning numbers, and yet, their win ratio is still very much lower than those who do not forecast..

Winning the lottery is purely based on luck and God by your side, analyzing previous winning data is merely a way to just pass time, that is make time run faster.

Well, I guess they'll do voodoo as well to make certain numbers jump. Mathematical analysts in Europe know that mathematical events are idependent, and so the fact that certain numbers have come up in the past does not make it more or less unlikely that they will come up this time. To give a simple example, heads 10 times does not make tails more likely the next time, however counter-intuitive that may seem.

So, yes, analysing previous numbers is not for predicting future numbers, but more of a hobby.

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Quote from: elevates on July 10, 2023, 08:35:03 AM

Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 11:25:32 AM

The thing is that the lottery or every other gambling is dependent on luck because the outcome is quite in two ways, I have a friend who played the American lottery some years ago, just one ticket and he win the prize right now he has relocated to the US for over 7 years now.

So the possibility of winning may be near zero, but if luck is on your side opsl may end up winning, but it's better to limit the number in other not to get addicted.

Your friend is one lucky guy! The problem with luck is that it is unpredictable, it is untrustworthy, and needs a lot of commitment to achieve your target. That commitment does not work for everyone in their lifetime. I have a few friends who used to predict the number by analyzing the data. Even that does not work! A few of my friends made good money while doing the data analysis. What I meant by data analysis is to work on those winning numbers and using a few technical and mathematical skills predict the winning number. As I said earlier, you need a lot of luck but sometimes skills do work.

We have alot of them here in Nigeria who are lotto data analyst their specialty is to analyzed the previous winning numbers, and from there, they are able to predict the number that will win in the present time, we locally call them Forecasters, and to be sincere with you, I've never believed that it is any where near possible to win lotto with such forecasting, many of them forecast lotto winning numbers, and yet, their win ratio is still very much lower than those who do not forecast..

Winning the lottery is purely based on luck and God by your side, analyzing previous winning data is merely a way to just pass time, that is make time run faster.

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Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 11:25:32 AM

The thing is that the lottery or every other gambling is dependent on luck because the outcome is quite in two ways, I have a friend who played the American lottery some years ago, just one ticket and he win the prize right now he has relocated to the US for over 7 years now.

One thing I have seen about lottery is that, it is mostly based on luck and for those that normally have luck in gambling could be the ones that will be making the profits and earning from lottery since it is not always about the kind of strategy we are using or how we intend to play the game. If you are always lucky in playing lottery as a gambler, I would always advise that we should keep doing what is givinh is the joy and making us to win everytime we play bet.

Quote

So the possibility of winning may be near zero, but if luck is on your side opsl may end up winning, but it's better to limit the number in other not to get addicted.

The possiblity of winning could be even 90 percentage and we cam keep losing because we don't have the capacity to determine the kind of results that we want as a player. Things can be uneasy with lottery that is why I don't dabble into it since I may not have what it takes for me to win it and there are many gamblers too that thinks going into lottery is one of the quickest waay for them to make money in gambling.

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Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 11:25:32 AM

The thing is that the lottery or every other gambling is dependent on luck because the outcome is quite in two ways, I have a friend who played the American lottery some years ago, just one ticket and he win the prize right now he has relocated to the US for over 7 years now.

So the possibility of winning may be near zero, but if luck is on your side opsl may end up winning, but it's better to limit the number in other not to get addicted.

Your friend is one lucky guy! The problem with luck is that it is unpredictable, it is untrustworthy, and needs a lot of commitment to achieve your target. That commitment does not work for everyone in their lifetime. I have a few friends who used to predict the number by analyzing the data. Even that does not work! A few of my friends made good money while doing the data analysis. What I meant by data analysis is to work on those winning numbers and using a few technical and mathematical skills predict the winning number. As I said earlier, you need a lot of luck but sometimes skills do work.

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Quote from: bettercrypto on July 10, 2023, 05:50:19 AM

Those who bet on the lottery are people who, even though they know it's impossible for them to win, they still depend on luck, what's always on their mind is, what if they get lucky this time. What they don't notice is that they have been doing that kind of thinking for a long time.

They also don't think that out of the millions of Filipinos who bet on the lottery, only one will win the jackpot. Or sometimes I don't even understand their mindset to be honest.

It depends on each player, I guess. I'm sure that many of them simply think that for a small payment every week/month they can have fun by imagining the dear life they would enjoy if they are very lucky. If these expenses are low, I share their opinion on lottery: why not? But I don't know to what extent it is common among Filipinos (because you talk about them) to buy a lot of tickets, more than what they can afford, and this is indeed unreasonable.

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 08, 2023, 08:59:48 AM

Quote from: Kelvinid on July 07, 2023, 03:10:12 PM

And despite the fact that people are aware of their chance of winning but seeing the huge prize, everything has changed as their mind is focused on winning and hoping to be the lucky person. As I can see here in my country, a lot of people are in the lineup buying tickets and this means that they put their future into lotteries. You really be encouraged to do this when hearing someone win millions and so jobless people got crazy about this.

Actually, I've heard in an interview that he keeps all the lottery tickets and it already filled the box but still, he never wins. He says it is possible he spends millions already but is still unlucky. And I know that many people have the same story as him.

The people who line up to buy lottery tickets think that buying the lottery and winning can improve their lives, so they are willing to stand in line to buy lottery tickets. Maybe we don't take it seriously but not for them because they have seen what happened to those who won those lottery tickets.

They don't think about how much money they have used to buy lottery tickets because they can buy them in large quantities cheaply. And they keep doing that until they win, and they do not know when they will get it.

Those who bet on the lottery are people who, even though they know it's impossible for them to win, they still depend on luck, what's always on their mind is, what if they get lucky this time. What they don't notice is that they have been doing that kind of thinking for a long time.

They also don't think that out of the millions of Filipinos who bet on the lottery, only one will win the jackpot. Or sometimes I don't even understand their mindset to be honest.

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Quote from: Wapfika on July 07, 2023, 02:15:38 PM

Assuming we are talking about online casino here, Most of the countries doesn’t apply taxes on online gambling that use cryptocurency unless the country is already regulating crypto so the user should voluntarily pay taxes on it’s gambling profit. You are right that casino doesn't charge tax automatically since it's based on the user country jurisdiction over gambling winning. There's no online casino that applies tax on all the profit made by users since there's no way for them to pay the taxes directly to the government of the players country.

It's only possible on IRL casino but it's very rare for the casino to charge tax out of winners profit.

I believe governments will be more than happy to take the taxes from players gambling online either using fiat or cryptocurrencies but the thing is that people don't disclose their winnings and wouldn't let the authorities know that they've been gambling and have managed to win a significant amount through it, because if they do so, they will be forced to pay their taxes as per the winnings, so most people from most countries don't do that.

There can be countries where laws are strict and authorities closely follow casinos and cryptocurrency activities of their citizens so that when they find a suspicious transaction in their bank account or other financial applications they can directly catch them and charge them a fine and the taxes as well.

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Quote from: BitcoinPanther on July 09, 2023, 03:20:02 PM

Quote from: Porfirii on July 08, 2023, 11:14:25 AM

I think that, although the example in the film is quite exaggerated, winning the lottery ruined more lives than we might think.

There had been list of lottery winner circulated on the internet where their winnings make their lives temporarily at its best but eventually ends up worst. It is really the problem with financial management and literacy since most of these instant millionaire failed to value their won wealth.

This site : https://www.lovemoney.com/galleries/64958/lottery-winners-who-won-millions-but-ended-up-with-nothing tells about list of lottery winners that wins millions but ended up with nothing. This could be a good read since it tells the reason behind the failure after the success.

If you wont be able to have plans about your money or winnings then you would really be ending up on being poor again after how many years or a certain period of time if you arent really that wise or same as you

said about financial literacy and management into it. Usually people who doesnt really have that educational background are the ones who would really be able to end up something like this.Im not really that
discriminating them but talking about reality which they do really lack up that awareness and education on which even on the simplest basic approach on how money should be handled out is something that
really needs that proper planning for you to sustain.

Some might be able to think up clearly and carefully despite on having no education but they do make use of their own common sense and awareness on how things should really be done.
There are people who are really that afraid on being poor once again once they do hit up jackpots and this is why some of them do put up on investment which it is really that a right call.

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Quote from: Porfirii on July 08, 2023, 11:14:25 AM

I think that, although the example in the film is quite exaggerated, winning the lottery ruined more lives than we might think.

There had been list of lottery winner circulated on the internet where their winnings make their lives temporarily at its best but eventually ends up worst. It is really the problem with financial management and literacy since most of these instant millionaire failed to value their won wealth.

This site : https://www.lovemoney.com/galleries/64958/lottery-winners-who-won-millions-but-ended-up-with-nothing tells about list of lottery winners that wins millions but ended up with nothing. This could be a good read since it tells the reason behind the failure after the success.

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Quote from: Porfirii on June 23, 2023, 11:22:41 AM

On the other hand, national lotteries are known to be "taxes on ignorance of mathematics", but if these revenues financed public expenses that revert to the common good: would you agree to pay systematically 1 USD more in your annual taxes as something that ensures the right to dream of a dear life of every taxpayer?

Doesn't seem necessary that this would be a government sponsored program. Having tax payer money sponsor a lottery type program wouldn't be great for optics when some would argue the prize pool of that lottery should be used for a public utility instead of going to a private citizens pocket.

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 08, 2023, 08:59:48 AM

They don't think about how much money they have used to buy lottery tickets because they can buy them in large quantities cheaply. And they keep doing that until they win, and they do not know when they will get it.

Because they think that with a price of $1 or a little more than that they can get a big profit but in the end this is what makes them trapped where they don't realise when for example they buy 2 lotteries per day at a price of $1 per lottery for one day it won't be a problem but when every day with false hopes as you said when they want a fortune where they try every day this is what makes them trapped again and again.

The longer it gets the more curious and try to buy more in the hope that they can get what they expect but again it's just false because there are only a few who make a big profit from this.

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Quote from: panjul07 on July 08, 2023, 10:21:16 AM

We cant generalize like this IMO, not all people who buy lottery have the same mindset about what they are doing.
Winning a lottery can change someone's life, no doubt about it but I do not think that changing life is the only reason why they buy lottery regularly.

It's true that we can't generalize like that but that's what happens to people who buy the lottery. They keep hoping to get a win by buying lottery tickets and that's why there are still many people who still buy lotto tickets in large quantities. We can only guess their goals from our side but don't know their real goals. But getting the prize from the lottery ticket is their goal.

Quote from: panjul07 on July 08, 2023, 10:21:16 AM

If we generalize it like that, so it should be also applied to all gamblers not only for lottery gamblers as basically all gamblers do not know when they will win regardless what games they are playing.
However, there are still some smart gamblers who know how to gamble responsibly who know how to spend their money wisely for their gambling habits.

Yes, maybe we can apply this to all gamblers who play gambling because we see many gamblers who still return to gambling, whether they have succeeded in getting a big win or are they still trying to win that gambling game. But what is clear is that many gamblers still want to win from gambling so they come back again. And I agree that there are still smart and wise gamblers who can use gambling properly so they don't lose a lot of money and only use gambling as entertainment.

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Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on July 08, 2023, 04:57:39 PM

Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 04:30:17 PM

Quote from: Hypnosis00 on July 08, 2023, 02:24:59 PM

Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 11:25:32 AM

-snip-

The over hope has affected a lot of those lottery hunters and this hope has been ditched multiple times but yet they don't give up and believe that at some point their luck win shine and the winning number will locate them in the long run and this has been the motivation.

But the certainty of winning is not there and at that one can't be sure of making any steady winning so gamblers should look away from that result and depend on luck.

If I must be sincere with you, I did tell you that I really do admire those guys who spend money, play the lotteries consistently for several years without winning a dime, and they still go on playing, that exactly is what I call true dedication..

But it's rather unfortunate though, that this same set of guys, might end up not showing the same level of dedication on their daily jobs, business, career or what ever be their legitimate and main source of income, and this is just the irony of the whole thing.

Not only with gambling, but I can see that in many fields lately: social media, video games, sports as a hobby... I agree with you that, if many of these people directed their dedication to something productive they would achieve great objectives.

The good thing is that, although some of you have reported cases where people ruined their finances playing lotteries, addiction to this game is very rare if we compare it with other activities or substances. In fact, the aim of this thread was to discuss about how unreasonable (and uncommon) is to raise the bet in lotteries, because reasonable players should settle for the mere possibility.

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Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 04:30:17 PM

Quote from: Hypnosis00 on July 08, 2023, 02:24:59 PM

Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 11:25:32 AM

The thing is that the lottery or every other gambling is dependent on luck because the outcome is quite in two ways, I have a friend who played the American lottery some years ago, just one ticket and he win the prize right now he has relocated to the US for over 7 years now.

So the possibility of winning may be near zero, but if luck is on your side obe may end up winning, but it's better to limit the number in other not to get addicted.

We can't really imagine how people got crazy doing this when the situation is not fair - near to zero chances? We are just putting our future into almost nothing and besides, we never know when we become lucky and get the jackpot prize. Maybe some gamblers have been doing this for several years but got no luck, yet they are still buying tickets and joining lotteries hoping that one day they become a millionaire. I'd never say it was a big mistake but believing that this would be the last option to improve our finances, that was a big mistake.

The over hope has affected a lot of those lottery hunters and this hope has been ditched multiple times but yet they don't give up and believe that at some point their luck win shine and the winning number will locate them in the long run and this has been the motivation.

But the certainty of winning is not there and at that one can't be sure of making any steady winning so gamblers should look away from that result and depend on luck.

If I must be sincere with you, I did tell you that I really do admire those guys who spend money, play the lotteries consistently for several years without winning a dime, and they still go on playing, that exactly is what I call true dedication..

But it's rather unfortunate though, that this same set of guys, might end up not showing the same level of dedication on their daily jobs, business, career or what ever be their legitimate and main source of income, and this is just the irony of the whole thing.

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Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 04:30:17 PM

Quote from: Hypnosis00 on July 08, 2023, 02:24:59 PM

Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 11:25:32 AM

The thing is that the lottery or every other gambling is dependent on luck because the outcome is quite in two ways, I have a friend who played the American lottery some years ago, just one ticket and he win the prize right now he has relocated to the US for over 7 years now.

So the possibility of winning may be near zero, but if luck is on your side obe may end up winning, but it's better to limit the number in other not to get addicted.

We can't really imagine how people got crazy doing this when the situation is not fair - near to zero chances? We are just putting our future into almost nothing and besides, we never know when we become lucky and get the jackpot prize. Maybe some gamblers have been doing this for several years but got no luck, yet they are still buying tickets and joining lotteries hoping that one day they become a millionaire. I'd never say it was a big mistake but believing that this would be the last option to improve our finances, that was a big mistake.

The over hope has affected a lot of those lottery hunters and this hope has been ditched multiple times but yet they don't give up and believe that at some point their luck win shine and the winning number will locate them in the long run and this has been the motivation.

But the certainty of winning is not there and at that one can't be sure of making any steady winning so gamblers should look away from that result and depend on luck.

Speaking of lottery on which this is really that a game or bet which do totally rely on how lucky you would be considering the odds of hitting or winning the jackpot is way too slim on which it cant really be that so

possible that you would be able to win up directly on just purchasing one or single ticket. Whenever bettors would really be having that kind of emotion when betting up on lottery then the main driving force would really be that amount which is something that would really be life changing. This is something that you would really be definitely be aiming for you to hit up and since the ticket prices arent really that expensive
then you wouldn't really mind most of the time about the cost and would really be still continuing on buying tickets and dont bother about the odds and chances for you to win bigtime.

We do all know that chances are slim but minding and focusing that much on the amount that you could potentially win, then it would completely wipe out that kind of emotion which it would really be able for you to
continue more.

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Quote from: Hypnosis00 on July 08, 2023, 02:24:59 PM

Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 11:25:32 AM

The thing is that the lottery or every other gambling is dependent on luck because the outcome is quite in two ways, I have a friend who played the American lottery some years ago, just one ticket and he win the prize right now he has relocated to the US for over 7 years now.

So the possibility of winning may be near zero, but if luck is on your side obe may end up winning, but it's better to limit the number in other not to get addicted.

We can't really imagine how people got crazy doing this when the situation is not fair - near to zero chances? We are just putting our future into almost nothing and besides, we never know when we become lucky and get the jackpot prize. Maybe some gamblers have been doing this for several years but got no luck, yet they are still buying tickets and joining lotteries hoping that one day they become a millionaire. I'd never say it was a big mistake but believing that this would be the last option to improve our finances, that was a big mistake.

The over hope has affected a lot of those lottery hunters and this hope has been ditched multiple times but yet they don't give up and believe that at some point their luck win shine and the winning number will locate them in the long run and this has been the motivation.

But the certainty of winning is not there and at that one can't be sure of making any steady winning so gamblers should look away from that result and depend on luck.

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on July 08, 2023, 08:59:48 AM

Quote from: Kelvinid on July 07, 2023, 03:10:12 PM

And despite the fact that people are aware of their chance of winning but seeing the huge prize, everything has changed as their mind is focused on winning and hoping to be the lucky person. As I can see here in my country, a lot of people are in the lineup buying tickets and this means that they put their future into lotteries. You really be encouraged to do this when hearing someone win millions and so jobless people got crazy about this.

Actually, I've heard in an interview that he keeps all the lottery tickets and it already filled the box but still, he never wins. He says it is possible he spends millions already but is still unlucky. And I know that many people have the same story as him.

The people who line up to buy lottery tickets think that buying the lottery and winning can improve their lives, so they are willing to stand in line to buy lottery tickets. Maybe we don't take it seriously but not for them because they have seen what happened to those who won those lottery tickets.

They don't think about how much money they have used to buy lottery tickets because they can buy them in large quantities cheaply. And they keep doing that until they win, and they do not know when they will get it.

They're playing "financial roulette," right? It's intriguing and confusing! Next, the lottery as a life-improver. It has merit! The few victors' dreams come true. Remember: The average person has a higher probability of being hit by lightning than winning the lotto. Dreamers persist - fascinating.

Ticket prices are relative. Lottery tickets are cheap, but quantity matters. Buy one, two, three, hundreds, thousands... it adds up! Counting sand grains. But a beach full? Different story. Winners inspire others, sustaining the cycle. Waiting how long? Will they buy many tickets? The impossible becomes possible?

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Quote from: Wiwo on July 08, 2023, 11:25:32 AM

The thing is that the lottery or every other gambling is dependent on luck because the outcome is quite in two ways, I have a friend who played the American lottery some years ago, just one ticket and he win the prize right now he has relocated to the US for over 7 years now.

So the possibility of winning may be near zero, but if luck is on your side obe may end up winning, but it's better to limit the number in other not to get addicted.

We can't really imagine how people got crazy doing this when the situation is not fair - near to zero chances? We are just putting our future into almost nothing and besides, we never know when we become lucky and get the jackpot prize. Maybe some gamblers have been doing this for several years but got no luck, yet they are still buying tickets and joining lotteries hoping that one day they become a millionaire. I'd never say it was a big mistake but believing that this would be the last option to improve our finances, that was a big mistake.

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The thing is that the lottery or every other gambling is dependent on luck because the outcome is quite in two ways, I have a friend who played the American lottery some years ago, just one ticket and he win the prize right now he has relocated to the US for over 7 years now.

So the possibility of winning may be near zero, but if luck is on your side opsl may end up winning, but it's better to limit the number in other not to get addicted.

Topic: Lotteries and possibility vs. probability - page 36. (Read 6269 times)