Pages:
Author

Topic: LoyceV's Avatar for Rent [first 🦊🦊🦊3 YEARS🦊🦊🦊 (165 weeks) rented out] - page 22. (Read 32529 times)

legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
Weekly update on the Bonbon L competition.
Very unexpected to see Bitcoin jumping above 20k so quickly. But of course, I won't complain, I'm not a bear.  Tongue
Block numbers are increasing already and I'll also contribute my calculations based on current numbers and how it would look like if we'll find 1 Block each 10 min from now on:

Time left until January 31, 2023, 23.59h:
12 days

On average, each day will be mined (1 Block per 10 minutes) 144 Blocks per day (6 Blocks per hour x 24 hours = 144 Blocks)

Calculation if we won't see any hashrate change:
12 days * 144 Blocks per day = 1.728 Blocks

=>

1.728 + 772.748 (current Block) = 774.476



And keep in mind: if Bitcoin's price doesn't increase further, we'll get a similar Block number from our current 10-min calculation because most likely, the hashrate won't be changed much.
legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
Two hundredth week paid.
Thanks again for your much better timing than mine Smiley I blame the kids, and cleaning the kitchen. But all good now Smiley I may even consider some of my favourite 38% tonight, I've been slacking in drinking this year Wink
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 3041
Vile Vixen and Miss Bitcointalk 2021-2023
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Weekly update on the Bonbon L competition.


Code:
Date   Block   Method1 Method2 Winner      
18 Jan 772556 774461 774505 RickDeckard



We had a few gyrations on the projected winner: the week started with LoyceV, then hash power rose and Fillippone, then jumped immediately after the difficulty adjustment to o_e_l_e_o, to gradually ease toward 1miau, Icopress Rickdeckard, and Neuroticfish. Sadly, I never was elected winner after the difficulty adjustment.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
A little update from the forecasting sheet:

Code:
Date	        Block	Method1 Method2	Winner
11 Jan 23:20 771,502 774,386 774,435 Fillippone






hero member
Activity: 1659
Merit: 687
LoyceV on the road. Or couch.
One hundred and ninety-ninth week paid.
Thanks again for your flawless timing! I'm a tad late, kids weren't in bed yet. But now they are Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 3041
Vile Vixen and Miss Bitcointalk 2021-2023
One hundred and ninety-ninth week paid.
legendary
Activity: 3640
Merit: 4224
I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).
+1
Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win.  Cheesy


I updated the spreadsheet.
Now it should automatically check the blockchain state every hour, and update the sheet every 50 blocks.
I think it is enough granularity!
Thank you @babo for helping me with the scraping part.

you are welcome my friend


Unfortunately I don't have much free time
I always work a lot and when I'm free my son rightly wants to play with me
It's really complex and I don't know how to carve out time

when i have free time i like to help geniuses like @fillippone or @mendace ,if i can i do Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).
+1
Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win.  Cheesy


I updated the spreadsheet.
Now it should automatically check the blockchain state every hour, and update the sheet every 15 blocks.
I think it is enough granularity!
Thank you @babo for helping me with the scraping part.
legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
Most likely these people doing these predictions are as clueless as we are here.  Cheesy
Currently, LoyceV would win.  Cheesy
Which one is it? Shocked
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
Im happy for bitcoin to go back above 17k after a long time, but the miners are expecting a drop in the hashrate for 2023 according to 10 Bitcoin Mining Predictions for 2023, even binance has covered this topic recently.
In my opinion, such "hashrate predictions" are just "educated guesses" because so many variables need to be considered. Most likely these people doing these predictions are as clueless as we are here.  Cheesy
We can analyze statistics from 2022, 2021 and so on but all these models are screwed when BTC will make big price changes in 2023.
So far, there's only one point we know: new generation miners are getting more efficient because tech is improving and new miners are delievering more hashpower/kwh. So, hashrate will go up.
All the noise in between is impossible to guess. Sure, Bitcoin is likely to increase in value over time but we don't know how much and when and sometimes, we'll even have a bear market.

In addition, your linked article estimated the hashrate to increase, but to slow down.
Quote
We will most likely see the hashrate growth slow down in 2023, as the poor mining economics of 2022 didn’t incentivize capacity expansion. The hashrate coming online in 2023 will mostly be delayed capacity expansion miners initially planned to add in 2022. This delayed capacity will come online during the first half of 2023. After that, the hashrate will stop growing and perhaps even contract, depending on the bitcoin price.

Maybe we can bookmark your linked article and review it in late December.  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 1050
Merit: 681

Looks like Bitcoin is getting ready for 2023. We are above 17k USD now, so if we can keep this level tomorrow, I expect more gains as people are getting a bullish sentiment for our new year (hopefully). If so, we could also see an increasing hashrate.
Maybe some miners are anticipating it already?


Im happy for bitcoin to go back above 17k after a long time, but the miners are expecting a drop in the hashrate for 2023 according to 10 Bitcoin Mining Predictions for 2023, even binance has covered this topic recently. But this will all change as soon as we go back above 20k.

Also, I dont know if we should give importance to FED meetings and rate hikes, 12th jan is our next cpi data release.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).
+1
Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win.  Cheesy


According to my computations. no rise in the Hash rate: actually the expected result has been quite stable lately.

Mempool space shows some +11% the estimated next difficulty change. I didn't recheck the calculations, but I am sure I didn't have this big numbers.
Looks like Bitcoin is getting ready for 2023. We are above 17k USD now, so if we can keep this level tomorrow, I expect more gains as people are getting a bullish sentiment for our new year (hopefully). If so, we could also see an increasing hashrate.
Maybe some miners are anticipating it already?

legendary
Activity: 3668
Merit: 6382
Looking for campaign manager? Contact icopress!
According to my computations. no rise in the Hash rate: actually the expected result has been quite stable lately.

Mempool space shows some +11% the estimated next difficulty change. I didn't recheck the calculations, but I am sure I didn't have this big numbers.
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Yeah, I reckon it was a "dick move" but in the end, sorry NeuroticFish, nothing personal.

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

No worries.
And you could have been done better. The hash rate is rising so fast I now expect we're both way off Cheesy

According to my computations. no rise in the Hash rate: actually the expected result has been quite stable lately.
legendary
Activity: 3668
Merit: 6382
Looking for campaign manager? Contact icopress!
Yeah, I reckon it was a "dick move" but in the end, sorry NeuroticFish, nothing personal.

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

No worries.
And you could have been done better. The hash rate is rising so fast I now expect we're both way off Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I've added your bullish prediction but since it's so bullish, I'm curious why it's even more bullish than my prediction.  Cheesy
Based on a very rough estimate of this difficulty period running around 11% faster than average (at the time I made my calculation), a random guess that the next difficulty period would run ~4-5% faster than average, and who knows about the one after that. But more because it gives me a wider range rather than squeezing in around the 774,450s - 774,500s, and avoids me doing the "someone else's guess +/- 1", which (no offense to the people who did that) is what you might call a "dick move". Tongue

Yeah, I reckon it was a "dick move" but in the end, sorry NeuroticFish, nothing personal.

I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18587
I've added your bullish prediction but since it's so bullish, I'm curious why it's even more bullish than my prediction.  Cheesy
Based on a very rough estimate of this difficulty period running around 11% faster than average (at the time I made my calculation), a random guess that the next difficulty period would run ~4-5% faster than average, and who knows about the one after that. But more because it gives me a wider range rather than squeezing in around the 774,450s - 774,500s, and avoids me doing the "someone else's guess +/- 1", which (no offense to the people who did that) is what you might call a "dick move". Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 6769
Currently not much available - see my websitelink
Aaaaaaand participation deadline is over.
Feel free to check if I made some errors in adding your predictions.  Lips sealed

Code:
Bitcointalk Account: o_e_l_e_o
Last Block of January 2023: 774,526
I've added your bullish prediction but since it's so bullish, I'm curious why it's even more bullish than my prediction.  Cheesy


Code:
Bitcointalk Account: fillippone
Last Block of January 2023: 774454

Everything is pretty standard right now.
Calculations have been pretty strightforard. You find everything in the attached spreadsheet.

Gazeta BonBon L Giveaway
Added as well and that's really a big effort in your spreadsheet.  Smiley Smiley
+1
It's truly a professional prediction.  Wink

I just added a strategic overview of other's forecast, in order to maximise chances (or try to).
Are you sure that it's bullish enough for our giveaway?  Wink

Edit: I've just checked you spreadsheet in detail and it's interesting that there's not a single prediction above 774450...
I really expect a huge BTC price increase, so will be interesting how it'll turn out.  Smiley



Good luck everyone! I'll leave some updates here from time to time to see how it's going.
May our giveaway honor GazetaBitcoin's couch Bonbon L,  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2114
Merit: 15144
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Code:
Bitcointalk Account: fillippone
Last Block of January 2023: 774454

Everything is pretty standard right now.
Calculations have been pretty strightforard. You find everything in the attached spreadsheet.

Gazeta BonBon L Giveaway

Forecsting is similar to 1 miau models, but I am sticking to forecasts.
I just added a strategic overview of other's forecast, in order to maximise chances (or try to).
Pages:
Jump to: