And we are a bit sad to realize that our giveaway for celebrating GazetaBitcoin's new couch, Bonbon L, is already over.
This is the worst part
Topic: LoyceV's Avatar for Rent [first 🦊🦊🦊3 YEARS🦊🦊🦊 (165 weeks) rented out] - page 22. (Read 32667 times)
February 01, 2023, 08:19:14 PM
And we are a bit sad to realize that our giveaway for celebrating GazetaBitcoin's new couch, Bonbon L, is already over.
This is the worst part
February 01, 2023, 08:10:35 PM
Maybe o_e_l_e_o will win our special BonBon L giveaway rewarding his bullish prediction. 0O
I've just took a look and I think that the last block number was 774505 and if I'm right then o_e_l_e_o may have won place #4.
However, let's wait for the official announcement.
After evaluating our predictions, we have a winner:
| Name | Number | Gap |
| _______________________ | ________________________ | ________________________ |
| The Sceptical Chymist | 769786 | 4.719 |
| TheBeardedBaby | 774167 | 338 |
| GazetaBitcoin | 774168 | 337 |
| CoinEraser | 774299 | 206 |
| LoyceV | 774396 | 109 |
| fillippone | 774454 | 51 |
| NeuroticFish | 774455 | 50 |
| icopress | 774500 | 5 |
| RickDeckard | 774501 | 4 |
| 1miau | 774510 | 5 |
| o_e_l_e_o | 774526 | 21 |
RickDeckard has won our giveaway, many congratulations to him, well done!
Here is his winner prediction. In my opinion, his win is 100% deserved, because RickDeckard's prediction has been very detailed.
Places 2 and 3 are a draw because icopress and 1miau both have a 5 point gap.
Now, we need a solution to determine a winner for the second place. My suggestion would be: predict the last Bitcoin Block mined in February 2023.
But icopress and a majority of our participants need to agree here.
Place 4 goes to o_e_l_e_o.
So, I would need 1 BTC Address from RickDeckard and o_e_l_e_o to send out your won BTC.
RickDeckard can PM GazetaBitcoin for the Bitcoin Romania card.
Many thanks to all participants once again!
And we are a bit sad to realize that our giveaway for celebrating GazetaBitcoin's new couch, Bonbon L, is already over.
February 01, 2023, 02:22:42 PM
Two hundred and second week paid.
Thanks again for your flawless timing! 
February 01, 2023, 02:20:01 PM
Two hundred and second week paid.
February 01, 2023, 06:39:55 AM
Maybe o_e_l_e_o will win our special BonBon L giveaway rewarding his bullish prediction. 0O
I've just took a look and I think that the last block number was 774505 and if I'm right then o_e_l_e_o may have won place #4.
However, let's wait for the official announcement.
January 28, 2023, 08:58:37 PM
Yet another update on the Bonbon L competition.
Yes, it's getting very interesting! Code:
Date Block Method1 Method2 Winner
25 Jan 773,608 774,482 774,493 Icopress
Only 2 days and 22h left, so I'll also prepare an update:
Time left until January 31, 2023, 23.59h:
2 days, 22 hours
On average, each day will be mined (1 Block per 10 minutes) 144 Blocks per day (6 Blocks per hour x 24 hours = 144 Blocks)
Calculation if we won't see any hashrate change:
2 days * 144 Blocks per day = 288 Blocks
22 hours * 6 Blocks per hour = 132 Blocks
=> 420 Blocks
=>
420 + 774.104 (current Block) = 774.524
Our last prediction from a few days ago:
Similar to fillippone's prediction, numbers were going up and are expected to go up even more.
Maybe o_e_l_e_o will win our special BonBon L giveaway rewarding his bullish prediction. 0O
January 25, 2023, 06:58:35 PM
Yet another update on the Bonbon L competition.
After a period of relative low hash rate (and signalling yours very truly as a winner), hashpower was on the rise again, and icopress is now the projected winner!
Code:
Date Block Method1 Method2 Winner
25 Jan 773,608 774,482 774,493 Icopress
After a period of relative low hash rate (and signalling yours very truly as a winner), hashpower was on the rise again, and icopress is now the projected winner!
January 25, 2023, 02:40:48 PM
Two hundred and first week paid.
Thanks again for your flawless timing! I can only blame the kids today for being late, but they're in bed now do life is quiet again. January 25, 2023, 02:20:00 PM
Two hundred and first week paid.
January 19, 2023, 09:11:39 PM
Weekly update on the Bonbon L competition.
Very unexpected to see Bitcoin jumping above 20k so quickly. But of course, I won't complain, I'm not a bear. 
Block numbers are increasing already and I'll also contribute my calculations based on current numbers and how it would look like if we'll find 1 Block each 10 min from now on:
Time left until January 31, 2023, 23.59h:
12 days
On average, each day will be mined (1 Block per 10 minutes) 144 Blocks per day (6 Blocks per hour x 24 hours = 144 Blocks)
Calculation if we won't see any hashrate change:
12 days * 144 Blocks per day = 1.728 Blocks
=>
1.728 + 772.748 (current Block) = 774.476
And keep in mind: if Bitcoin's price doesn't increase further, we'll get a similar Block number from our current 10-min calculation because most likely, the hashrate won't be changed much.
January 18, 2023, 02:43:20 PM
Two hundredth week paid.
Thanks again for your much better timing than mine 
I blame the kids, and cleaning the kitchen. But all good now I may even consider some of my favourite 38% tonight, I've been slacking in drinking this year 
January 18, 2023, 02:20:06 PM
Two hundredth week paid.
January 18, 2023, 01:17:02 PM
Weekly update on the Bonbon L competition.
We had a few gyrations on the projected winner: the week started with LoyceV, then hash power rose and Fillippone, then jumped immediately after the difficulty adjustment to o_e_l_e_o, to gradually ease toward 1miau, Icopress Rickdeckard, and Neuroticfish. Sadly, I never was elected winner after the difficulty adjustment.
Code:
Date Block Method1 Method2 Winner
18 Jan 772556 774461 774505 RickDeckard
We had a few gyrations on the projected winner: the week started with LoyceV, then hash power rose and Fillippone, then jumped immediately after the difficulty adjustment to o_e_l_e_o, to gradually ease toward 1miau, Icopress Rickdeckard, and Neuroticfish. Sadly, I never was elected winner after the difficulty adjustment.
January 11, 2023, 06:23:53 PM
A little update from the forecasting sheet:
Code:
Date Block Method1 Method2 Winner
11 Jan 23:20 771,502 774,386 774,435 Fillippone
January 11, 2023, 02:22:41 PM
One hundred and ninety-ninth week paid.
Thanks again for your flawless timing! I'm a tad late, kids weren't in bed yet. But now they are January 11, 2023, 02:20:00 PM
One hundred and ninety-ninth week paid.
January 10, 2023, 10:39:43 AM
I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).
+1Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win.
I updated the spreadsheet.
Now it should automatically check the blockchain state every hour, and update the sheet every 50 blocks.
I think it is enough granularity!
Thank you @babo for helping me with the scraping part.
you are welcome my friend
Unfortunately I don't have much free time
I always work a lot and when I'm free my son rightly wants to play with me
It's really complex and I don't know how to carve out time
when i have free time i like to help geniuses like @fillippone or @mendace ,if i can i do
January 10, 2023, 10:30:47 AM
I slightly updated my spreadsheet. And I am continuing to update this (I am cooking something for this), and now it reports the projected winner using my second model (which I think it's better Thant the first one).
+1Will be interesting to see how predictions will change.
Currently, LoyceV would win.
I updated the spreadsheet.
Now it should automatically check the blockchain state every hour, and update the sheet every 15 blocks.
I think it is enough granularity!
Thank you @babo for helping me with the scraping part.
January 10, 2023, 05:14:10 AM
Most likely these people doing these predictions are as clueless as we are here.
Currently, LoyceV would win.
Which one is it? 
January 09, 2023, 08:57:03 PM
Im happy for bitcoin to go back above 17k after a long time, but the miners are expecting a drop in the hashrate for 2023 according to 10 Bitcoin Mining Predictions for 2023, even binance has covered this topic recently.
In my opinion, such "hashrate predictions" are just "educated guesses" because so many variables need to be considered. Most likely these people doing these predictions are as clueless as we are here. We can analyze statistics from 2022, 2021 and so on but all these models are screwed when BTC will make big price changes in 2023.
So far, there's only one point we know: new generation miners are getting more efficient because tech is improving and new miners are delievering more hashpower/kwh. So, hashrate will go up.
All the noise in between is impossible to guess. Sure, Bitcoin is likely to increase in value over time but we don't know how much and when and sometimes, we'll even have a bear market.
In addition, your linked article estimated the hashrate to increase, but to slow down.
Quote
We will most likely see the hashrate growth slow down in 2023, as the poor mining economics of 2022 didn’t incentivize capacity expansion. The hashrate coming online in 2023 will mostly be delayed capacity expansion miners initially planned to add in 2022. This delayed capacity will come online during the first half of 2023. After that, the hashrate will stop growing and perhaps even contract, depending on the bitcoin price.
Maybe we can bookmark your linked article and review it in late December.
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