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Topic: We are headed to $50 - page 6. (Read 9260 times)

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
World Class Cryptonaire
February 24, 2015, 01:18:16 AM
#31
Not a chance. Capitulation has happened, and 160 was it. If you keep waiting for 50, you will end up not getting into and missing the rally.

You may well be right.  Capitulation of a sorts did happen, just like in April 2014.  It remains to be seen whether it was the final capitulation.

I'm already well in.  I'm only planning to buy more if it gets to $50-80.


It may be beneficial for you to utilize dollar cost averaging. Some would argue that it's the only way to beat the market long term.
legendary
Activity: 1040
Merit: 1001
February 24, 2015, 01:06:54 AM
#30
Not a chance. Capitulation has happened, and 160 was it. If you keep waiting for 50, you will end up not getting into and missing the rally.

You may well be right.  Capitulation of a sorts did happen, just like in April 2014.  It remains to be seen whether it was the final capitulation.

I'm already well in.  I'm only planning to buy more if it gets to $50-80.
legendary
Activity: 1040
Merit: 1001
February 24, 2015, 01:01:30 AM
#29
Aren't you ignoring the 2013 peak, 266 usd, which did crash to a bit below 40 before the runup to 1160?

No, but that is a good question.  The bubble that reached 1160 is best thought of as a continuation of the bubbled that reached 260.  In between, there was very little pain.  Certainly nothing like what we've seen over the last 14 months.  The only thing comparable to the current bear market was the aftermath of the bubble to 32.  Hence, there have been exactly TWO meaningful bubble cycles in Bitcoin's history:

0--->32
2--->1160

Yes, there have been smaller rallies along the way, but based on the division of the price history around these protracted bear markets, the above categorization is the only one that makes sense.
hero member
Activity: 521
Merit: 500
February 23, 2015, 07:47:25 PM
#28
Not a chance. Capitulation has happened, and 160 was it. If you keep waiting for 50, you will end up not getting into and missing the rally.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
February 23, 2015, 06:50:04 PM
#27
Bitcoin hasn´t seemed to be on the verge of the next collapse for a whopping month now so maybe last month´s bottom was it. If by some miracle it gets to say 350 and holds that level for a few weeks I´ll probably start getting bullish.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 104
February 23, 2015, 06:37:56 PM
#26
Think the OP's being very pessimistic. Can't see the price going down that much, if it goes anywhere near $50 I'll be able to reach my goal of over thousand btc Wink

Thats what people said when the price was at 500 , for it being at 300.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1000
Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin
February 23, 2015, 10:24:01 AM
#25
I've been thinking a lot about the current state of affairs, and the picture has started to become clear.  This bear market is as painful (and in many ways more painful) as the 2011-2012 bear market.  That suggests that the "level" of the current bear market within the cycle corresponds to that previous bear market.

That means that the corresponding bull markets are:

$0 ---> $32
$2 ---> $1160

In order for a bull market to be born, the price has to revisit very close to the bull market peak one cycle back.  That's the only way the weak hands will be shaken out.  We've had a lot of weak hands who still think every $20 upswing is the start of a new bubble, who think making money in Bitcoin is easy, and who still have "faith" in the price without knowing the first thing about the technology.  They need to be shaken out because they're weak hands; they're dumb money.  Only when they're replaced by stronger hands who think long term and know better Bitcoin's place in the future world will the new bull market be born.  

In other words, the price has to get close to $32.  And by that, I don't mean "close" in linear terms, but rather, in log terms, so there's more room for error.  I think the final low will be something more like $50-$80.  

I'm going to be buying hand-over-fist at those levels from the weak hands who will panic sell.

Also, based on some fractal similarity I'm seeing--which I will divulge later after the new bull starts--the next bull will be powerful, as powerful on a log scale as the prior two full cycles combined.  When the dumb money panics, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.


nah, i see why you think it will happen, but ure wrong imo.
Just take a look at litecoin, 50k $ each day for mined coins, and price is still the same, and the coin is useless, if ure in doubt just take a look at this corpse (litecoin.org)


but still some people buy it because theres alot of money around the crypto (mainy from bitcoin bubble), and that same money wont allow double digits to happen, 100-ish , maybe but 50$ not a chance.

cheers
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1017
February 23, 2015, 09:43:04 AM
#24
50$ ?  not gonna happen..  I have a buy order @ 200  Grin
uki
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
cryptojunk bag holder
February 23, 2015, 09:40:02 AM
#23
I would be bearish unless it breakout 260$, surely, in the short time.
we may as well observe more of the sideways trend, until some bigger correction in the stock market occurs (May?, before summer?).
then probably, there will be some unallocated money looking for more gains, and BTC maybe one of the candidates.
So, ladies and gents, it is the accumulation time!
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
February 23, 2015, 09:32:20 AM
#22
I would be bearish unless it breakout 260$, surely, in the short time.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
February 23, 2015, 09:10:58 AM
#21
I think the price can't go to $50. Too many people will hop to buy in. But I think price do need to decline quite a lot. People are still waiting for a major decline to hop in. And only after a shakeout we can go up much more. Not a lot of people are willing to buy at these prices anymore.
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
February 23, 2015, 08:53:35 AM
#20
Think the OP's being very pessimistic. Can't see the price going down that much, if it goes anywhere near $50 I'll be able to reach my goal of over thousand btc Wink
uki
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
cryptojunk bag holder
February 23, 2015, 08:46:56 AM
#19
Very much in line with what OP posted is the guide on how to interpret the price of BTC.
It's not mine, but I fully agree with the author, as he pretty much nails it:

400-500: small risk
300-400: safe area
200-300: time to buy
100-200: why the hell are you not buying
50-100: you are mentally insane not to buy
0-50: you want to be poor on purpose

hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
1BkEzspSxp2zzHiZTtUZJ6TjEb1hERFdRr
February 23, 2015, 08:41:23 AM
#18
Fingers crossed. I would buy some more all way down and be happy about cause even this price now around 250$ is cheap as hell.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1427
February 23, 2015, 08:24:31 AM
#17
This thread should get a sticky and a golden medal for being todays most hilarious thread  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1070
February 23, 2015, 08:17:01 AM
#16
you missed a zero, there is better chance we are headed to 500 than 50
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1005
New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit
February 23, 2015, 06:15:35 AM
#15
$50 @ when?    Shocked

2017? or 2020?    Huh

I am guessing around 2200. When we have superior technology that bitcoin.

Or it could be rare, put in a museum, with 99.999% of the coins lost. Valued at $1 million per satoshi.


uki
legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1000
cryptojunk bag holder
February 23, 2015, 05:20:06 AM
#14
Aren't you ignoring the 2013 peak, 266 usd, which did crash to a bit below 40 before the runup to 1160?
that is actually a good point. Talking about big scheme of things, one usually did not mention granularity and such "quick" events may be filtered out.
So if we apply the analysis from the OP to the levels you mentioned, revisiting somewhere around $200 should theoretically end the correction.
legendary
Activity: 1615
Merit: 1000
February 23, 2015, 04:44:36 AM
#13
Aren't you ignoring the 2013 peak, 266 usd, which did crash to a bit below 40 before the runup to 1160?
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
February 23, 2015, 03:35:01 AM
#12
Show us the "proof", until then I call the OP a FUDster.
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