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Topic: REAL market traders... are they here...? - page 3. (Read 3422 times)

newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 09:04:16 PM
#28

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.

Agreed.  I think the statistic is that 95 or 98% of people who try trading lose and fail at trading.  More trading = more losses or at least less profits. 

Its because those 98% can't overcome human emotion of fear and greed/excitement when trading.  They become fearful when prices drop and trades go against them so they sell.  They get excited or greedy when prices go up or when they have profits and they buy or they hold when they should be selling and taking profits.  Its the old buy high, sell low.

They can't follow the old Warren Buffet mantra, "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."  In other words buy low, sell high.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 08:57:00 PM
#27
The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?

I live in the USA so I'm referring the US federal govt.  The only one that has the authority to issue currency in the US.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 08:53:57 PM
#26
Hunches and dreams = emotions.  

That's a bold statement without anything to back it up.

Very little is known about the inner workings of intuition and interpretable dreams.

To write them off as "emotions" while treating TA as an actual science (and not just a craft) is pretty presumptive.

TA is simply reading a visual representation (aka chart) of prices in daily, weekly, hourly etc. increments.  Those are real things that have actually happened in real life.  TA does not claim to predict exactly future price movements.  It merely provides the trader with an educated framework with which to increase the probability of profitable trades.  It also allows a trader to identify entry and exit points with limited downside and defined exit levels should a trade move against him.  It also identifies previous support and resistance levels.

I don't know what your knowlege of TA is or who told it was a "science" like biology or physics but its not.  No one who uses it should claim it to be.  Its simply chart reading.

And do you not believe that hunches or intuition and dreams are not influenced by human emotions such as fear and greed or excitement?
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
December 30, 2013, 08:50:09 PM
#25
I trade in Spread Betting of Forex, Index and so on.
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
December 30, 2013, 08:48:52 PM
#24

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.

Post of the year.
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
December 30, 2013, 08:47:36 PM
#23
The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?
member
Activity: 182
Merit: 10
December 30, 2013, 08:46:51 PM
#22

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 08:41:16 PM
#21
"So you think technical analysis is the equivalent as astrology, dreams and hunches?"

Love this :-)

Thanks for the reply.

And you "profi" guys do "day trading" (i think its called that way) with bitcoins, using the volatility for your gains? Do you do it with all of your coins, or only some of them?

What do you think about the gov. regulation/ban. Stupid people are ranting about how wonderfull will the year 2014 be, but they fail to realize that until now, bitcoin didnt face any threat from any gov. because it was a stupid small market nobody cared of... Thats changed now, and still this "dream investing" "people" are bullish in the year 2014, totally ignoring the gov. factor, saying bitcoin can NOT be destroyed... well you know, it can be destoreyd pretty easy... (gov. bans businnes from accepting bitcoin, the price crashes and stays there...).

what your take on this issue?


I don't trade bitcoins.  I used to day trade stocks a long time ago, but i don't anymore.  I invest in stocks now.

Govt regulation can be a good and bad thing.  They can be good b/c they can legitimize something new like bitcoin or they can outright ban something.  As for people who think bitcoin will replace govt issued fiat money anytime in the near future (meaning in the next 50 years) they are delusional.  The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
December 30, 2013, 08:38:30 PM
#20
Hunches and dreams = emotions.  

That's a bold statement without anything to back it up.

Very little is known about the inner workings of intuition and interpretable dreams.

To write them off as "emotions" while treating TA as an actual science (and not just a craft) is pretty presumptive.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 08:34:38 PM
#19

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

troll


They just don't know how to use it, so they dismiss it.

good point.  people ridicule what they don't understand.
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
December 30, 2013, 08:31:22 PM
#18

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

troll


They just don't know how to use it, so they dismiss it.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 08:29:21 PM
#17

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

troll
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 08:27:09 PM
#16

For Bitcoin, yes to varying degrees.

Astrology obviously is pseudoscience but hunches and dreams probably have a more valid foundation based on human intuition and subconcious thought processes.

Elliot Wave theory and other TA is based on observation of market trends in things other than Bitcoin.

Hunches and dreams = emotions.  Investing/trading on emotions is like burning money.  Don't even get me started on astrology.  Might as well trade according to your horoscope in your local paper.

Anything that has prices that can be charted can be analyzed according to TA.  Btc has prices can be charted.  Ergo TA can be used on btc.
sr. member
Activity: 742
Merit: 250
December 30, 2013, 08:25:45 PM
#15
"So you think technical analysis is the equivalent as astrology, dreams and hunches?"

Love this :-)

Thanks for the reply.

And you "profi" guys do "day trading" (i think its called that way) with bitcoins, using the volatility for your gains? Do you do it with all of your coins, or only some of them?

What do you think about the gov. regulation/ban. Stupid people are ranting about how wonderfull will the year 2014 be, but they fail to realize that until now, bitcoin didnt face any threat from any gov. because it was a stupid small market nobody cared of... Thats changed now, and still this "dream investing" "people" are bullish in the year 2014, totally ignoring the gov. factor, saying bitcoin can NOT be destroyed... well you know, it can be destoreyd pretty easy... (gov. bans businnes from accepting bitcoin, the price crashes and stays there...).

what your take on this issue?

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
December 30, 2013, 08:20:53 PM
#14
I'm sure there are many here who have varying amounts of experience working for brokerages and other investment firms.

Does that make them more real than the kind of amateur who predicts a bear market based on astrology, technical analysis, dreams or hunches? I don't think so.

One of the biggest mistakes that noobs make is to assume that what works with stocks, forex and commodities will work with Bitcoin. History has repeatedly dis-proven that.

So you think technical analysis is equivalent to astrology, dreams and hunches?


in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 08:20:38 PM
#13

Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...

This is *exactly* why i don't trade btc.  I hear way too many horror stories about people not being able to get their money out of btc exchanges, not getting good fills on their buy or sell orders or getting screwed somehow.  i just watch the btc charts and post on these forums out of curiosity.  I'll stick to trading stocks for the time being.  There's enough money to be made there that I don't need to risk my money at some fly by night btc exchange that is based in Bulgaria or some shady country like that.

And Mt. Gox was originally a Magic the Gathering trading site???  no thanks.
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
December 30, 2013, 08:19:43 PM
#12
I'm sure there are many here who have varying amounts of experience working for brokerages and other investment firms.

Does that make them more real than the kind of amateur who predicts a bear market based on astrology, technical analysis, dreams or hunches? I don't think so.

One of the biggest mistakes that noobs make is to assume that what works with stocks, forex and commodities will work with Bitcoin. History has repeatedly dis-proven that.

So you think technical analysis is equivalent to astrology, dreams and hunches?


For Bitcoin, yes to varying degrees.

Astrology obviously is pseudoscience but hunches and dreams probably have a more valid foundation based on human intuition and subconcious thought processes.

Elliot Wave theory and other TA is based on observation of market trends in things other than Bitcoin.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 30, 2013, 08:14:46 PM
#11

I buy and sell goods and services all the time for both cash and bitcoin.  Doesn't that mean I trade in "real" markets? (Not that I agree that Bitcoin markets are unreal, but I'm trying to play along).

If that doesn't count, why does commodity trading before Christ count?

Real was a poor choice of words on the OPs part.  You know what he meant.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
December 30, 2013, 08:06:51 PM
#10
Wait, I trade in the bitcoin market, so I am a "market trader". But because I don't trade paper promises for other paper promises, I'm not "real".  So am I imaginary?

By real, he means a trader in markets that have a long, established history of more than the 4 years that btc has.  Stocks have been traded since the 1700's.  Technically commodities like gold and iron etc. have been traded since before christ lived.

Not that anyone cares, but I have traded stocks since 1995.

I buy and sell goods and services all the time for both cash and bitcoin.  Doesn't that mean I trade in "real" markets? (Not that I agree that Bitcoin markets are unreal, but I'm trying to play along).

If that doesn't count, why does commodity trading before Christ count?
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
December 30, 2013, 08:02:06 PM
#9
Are there (on this forum) some REAL market traders. That means people who already had experience trading stocks, bonds, commodities, equities or i dont know what more, simple real life trade experience (preferably longer and preferably succesful)? Did someone for example worked as broker or on some exchange... etc. etc.

Is there any such fellow? Whats his take on bitcoin? What statistic research/test calculations and in what software (SPSS?) did you done.
whats your take on bitcoin...? (or do you know someone like this in your real life, whats his personal opinion on bitcoin)?

Please reply only people who fit the description above, i dont want (in this this thread) reaction of "so called bitcoin traders, that just FEEL (!) (:-O! :-D! ?) that price will go up and up and up" :-).


Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...

This is my new Holder's Manifesto, going to pull it out any time some muppet starts going on about how buying and holding is foolish versus trading.
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