Topic: REAL market traders... are they here...? - page 3. (Read 3420 times)

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.

"The govt"?

Which government is "the" government? Which jurisdiction?

That's a bold statement without anything to back it up.

Very little is known about the inner workings of intuition and interpretable dreams.

To write them off as "emotions" while treating TA as an actual science (and not just a craft) is pretty presumptive.

Most traders lose. The more they trade, the more likely they are to lose. I have theories about why, but they are not important. It's just the way it is. That said, I have encouraged people to trade my whole life and still do. A few win. It's like most Hollywood starlets end up waiting tables. But if they didn't go there would be no Hollywood. 

Don't kid yourselves though, the odds are hugely against you. What bitcoin has to offer is a parabolic rise IF it plays out that way. My position is to not fuck it up trying to pick up nickels in front of a freight train. Get in, sit down, shut up, and hold on.

Two cents from an old man.

The govt will never allow a currency that they have no control over.

"So you think technical analysis is the equivalent as astrology, dreams and hunches?"

Love this :-)

Thanks for the reply.

And you "profi" guys do "day trading" (i think its called that way) with bitcoins, using the volatility for your gains? Do you do it with all of your coins, or only some of them?

What do you think about the gov. regulation/ban. Stupid people are ranting about how wonderfull will the year 2014 be, but they fail to realize that until now, bitcoin didnt face any threat from any gov. because it was a stupid small market nobody cared of... Thats changed now, and still this "dream investing" "people" are bullish in the year 2014, totally ignoring the gov. factor, saying bitcoin can NOT be destroyed... well you know, it can be destoreyd pretty easy... (gov. bans businnes from accepting bitcoin, the price crashes and stays there...).

what your take on this issue?

Hunches and dreams = emotions.  

They just don't know how to use it, so they dismiss it.

troll

in my humble opinion, in order of reliability:

dreams, hunches, astrology, technical analysis

from high to low.

For Bitcoin, yes to varying degrees.

Astrology obviously is pseudoscience but hunches and dreams probably have a more valid foundation based on human intuition and subconcious thought processes.

Elliot Wave theory and other TA is based on observation of market trends in things other than Bitcoin.

So you think technical analysis is equivalent to astrology, dreams and hunches?

Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...

So you think technical analysis is equivalent to astrology, dreams and hunches?

I buy and sell goods and services all the time for both cash and bitcoin.  Doesn't that mean I trade in "real" markets? (Not that I agree that Bitcoin markets are unreal, but I'm trying to play along).

If that doesn't count, why does commodity trading before Christ count?

By real, he means a trader in markets that have a long, established history of more than the 4 years that btc has.  Stocks have been traded since the 1700's.  Technically commodities like gold and iron etc. have been traded since before christ lived.

Not that anyone cares, but I have traded stocks since 1995.

Well, yes. I have about 20 years experience trading. Predominantly futures and derivatives, commodities, currencies, interest rates, energies, etc. I was an institutional/retail broker for about 8 years and owned my own firm for most of those. Now I am a hedging consultant and prop trader, which is nearly the same thing just don't do brokerage anymore because I don't like most people when they become clients. When they are just people I like them more.

I actually wrote a book on it, you can borrow it free if you have amazon prime

http://amzn.com/B0091XN1KS

Anyway my take on bitcoin is the exchanges are fubar so I won't trade it there yet. MTGox looks ok but then not really, BTCe is a disaster waiting to happen- they might be 100% legit and stay that way but who the hell are they and who gets your money back if they fly by night? US exchanges have slipped a notch since Corzine and PFG debacles but I can still sleep at night with my money at the CME. None of these exchanges are transparent or accessible enough to warrant the risk afaic. Not disparaging them, I don't know, just scares the hell out of me.

So, it's a buy and hold market for me. I may put small amount into coinbase to buy altcoins on spec. But larg bitcoin investment is strictly through escrow/localbitcoin face to face with my gun. And then I am camping on them. I'm very bullish, long term. I'd like to trade the action because the swings are great, and the trend is steady considering the volatility. But its not worth the risk of disappearing account to me. Just going to hold and trade commodities at the merc to grind out in the meanwhile.

Hope that helps...