Those dumps are getting smaller, volume decreasing...
Can't be too long until we're bottoming out. Then maybe a final little capitulation dump, and we are where we were in 2019, just at least 10 times higher.
2023 might get unexpectedly interesting, in a positive way
Wow...
some peeps already skipping ahead to 2023..
jeezus fuggin crist....
I mean... I am not really that much of one to focusing on the various difficulties to predict short-term doldrums.. but presuming away 2022 as if it were going to be too boring seems a kind of fallacy of assigning too much certainty to the short-to-medium term as well, no?
It's like presuming too much about nothing interesting to happen in 2022... and seems to me still that so much interesting can happen in 2022.. even if it ends up being boring, the potentiality (and even likelihood for interesting) is still there (until it is not).. ..
I will actually assert that in some sense, there is some interesting aspects to our current dip that has so far reached 39% in regards to whether more weak hands can be shaken out and how long this can last. Will we have a break to the upside or to the downside... interesting.. interesting... interesting.. and another thing, can we retain sideways for the remainder of the calendar year (sure seems reasonably possible), but how long can we retain sideways into 2022.. can it even last a whole month, or are we going to get a quarter out of sideways... Can you guys even imagine a whole fucking quarter of sideways with the level of tension that we seem to have currently? I have a lot of doubts that sideways is really sustainable at these prices (let's say between $38k and $55k) for that long, but hey what do I know?
Noooo
I don't say 2022 will be negative or boring at all, but as cycles are getting delayed (ATH wise), and hodlers are bravely accumulating at dips, many bearish hands in china and the east were already shaken out, the reasoning of (projected) gains in 2023, when everybody and his pet is expecting a bear market, would not be
that unrealistic.
If we ATH 2022 again, the correction may go way less deep than expected (with -80% as a reference), followed by gradually rising in 2023. We didn't have that before, so it's likely to happen, since king daddy doesn't care...
EDIT: Call my way of approach something like "unprobabilistic mode" or else, IDC
OK... Fair enough regarding the unprobablistic way of characterizing your own framing of the matter, but still when we talk about a variety of possible unprobablistic scenarios it's like just throwing anything out there, and should we really be preparing our minds in those kinds of directions, even if our BTC portfolio preparations might not match our psychology.
Or wouldn't it be true that if you keep thinking in those kinds of
(what I believe to be both unprobabalistic and negative) ways, subsequently your mind may well end up influencing your financial preparations?
Just does not sound healthy to me.. and surely, to go from the attempts to assert less probable scenarios into the assertion of way out there scenarios.
In other words, it seems way more reasonable to me to consider that if our most-likely scenario would have been to have been having the peaking out of the BTC price in this quarter, but if it does not happen, then we may well go to the 1st quarter of 2022 or the second quarter or the third quarter, and so it hardly makes any sense to skip those more likely scenarios of having some kind of delayed peak rather than completely snapping out of the matter and go along with the fact that "everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market." Since when did it matter that everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market. I am sure the same was true in 2013 with the silk road baloney and then all of a sudden. BBBBAaaaaaammmmm. similarly with the various fork wars in 2017 and the various tragedies and Armageddons.. that was not exactly smooth, and then BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.
I just don't buy it.... yeah of course, you are even conceding that we might not have any kind of extended draw down, but why do we even need anything like that to take place? We had 56% and we had 39%.. so why would there be any kind of need for more, even if everyone is thinking that we might need more... blah blah blah.
I am not attached to any kind of have to happen sort of blow off top is coming, but there aren't really any meaningful and significants\ signs that it is not, except for some bit of delay and a few pull backs along the way.. sure the pull backs do not look exactly like earlier pull backs, but so what? They don't need to look exactly the same. They are still in the same ballpark as similar enough to earlier kinds of periods of pullbacks, and all we really have so far is delay..
Sure, I will admit that throughout almost the whole of 2018, until that November collapse, I did hang onto the idea that there could be a 2013-like double top, so in that sense I was wrong about the "could be" and/or that the 2017 bull run had actually ended in December 2017.. but still even that was another more than 6x price increase (from the august/september foundation) that had already been a more than 10x increase from our $250-ish 2015 starting point.
So even if we take $4,200 for our 2019 starting point and we get a bit more than 2x to get us to the $10k September 2020 starting point, we ONLY have a 7x increase and some pretty decent sized corrections along the way to say the 56% from May/June/July and our current 39% one that has not yet been resolved regarding whether it is over.. I don't buy that those lame-ass whimpy theories are very likely to play out.. even if they surely are in the cards so I am not saying that the whimpy-ass theories are not possible.. but I am saying: I don't buy it.. I don't buy it... .. because it just seems to be hanging onto negative scenarios for the mere sake of it.. when things are still looking pretty damned good in terms of a set up for another exponential top.. I mean one of the great things about exponential tops remains the fact that shorts keep forming to believe that it is over.. at $5k then at $8k then at $10k and so on and so on... and sure you can say that we already had that in the ride up to $65k (the first time around) and our second visit to $69k. .but I am not going to buy it.. not yet.. I am not going to appreciate that you are describing any kind of likely scenario.. even if it ends up happening.. I will say that you had merely been lucky with that nonsense whimpy ass description that bitcoin was going to be lame through 2022... and wait til 2023..
Call me a bulltard if you like
(and I don't even think that I am really that stuck on bullish ideations), but even with your explanation, clarification and characterizing of your thoughts on the matter, the "nothing is gonna happen until 2023" way of thinking about the real and likely dynamics of our lillie fiend makes wwwwweeeeeee little senses to yours truly.