Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4336. (Read 26713056 times)

While I agree with the comprehensive conclusion of TA ("chaotic mess"), shouldn't this news be bullish (if it's for real)?

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

Whatever it God damn takes. Happy Xmas boys.

https://i.ibb.co/HTDM0Kf/CD252054-97-FD-4-BB1-B739-A272-F493-EF39.webp"

(theymos limit on images per page so had to link)

Send it to $70,000

Sometimes a bit more work than initially intended...

It's not like a bot is coming up with all of the ideas contained therein.

This is getting ridiculous! Arrie is bringing the price down by posting his red dildos and cats. We need more gay xmas cards:



 

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

I took significant, life changing (to an extent) fiat out & now I don’t regret it at all. If we go much, much lower I will hoover up cheap coins. If we don’t then whatever, I am set for life now. Totally chilled until the next halvening & beyond.

 

Merited a long post…. For effort and writing work….

Everyone earns something while working 

Moar pain!!! I'm not selling, we're not selling brethren! Bring it on bears, is it all you've got? 

Looks more like a red buttplug (on a handy stick for sitting on)

I gave it up already. It stops when it stops.
Wishful thinking didn't work for me, so probably the $44.5k will never get hit  

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

Agree.
And... so far i've seen worse things before.

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).