Market is seasonal | Bitcointalksearch.org

Jody.Drummer

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Quote from: JoyMarsha on June 01, 2023, 05:51:59 PM

Quote from: JamesBorn on April 10, 2023, 11:47:13 PM

I see that there is no complete expert trader, at a point everyone experience loss both robots. That's means the market is kind of seasonal, it can favor you today and hit you tomorrow.

The sooner people understood that "there is no expert trader," the better. I wonder how a trader develops the notion that he would make more gains than losses in a market over which he has no influence over.
The crypto market is like that for short-term investors; you might win and lose. However, long-term investors are on the side of profits during market booms(always preferred over short-term).

Obviously long term investing is something that is more risky than short term or trading. But back to the coin where we invest, if we invest in the wrong coin, it will still make us lose even though we are doing it in the long term. We have to really invest in the best coins, and bitcoin is a very good coin for long term investment.
Indeed, it takes a long time for us to get the maximum profit, but it is worth what we get later. In contrast to trading, even though we can get profits in a short time, the risks also go hand in hand.

molsewid

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on May 28, 2023, 09:37:28 AM

Quote from: JamesBorn on April 10, 2023, 11:47:13 PM

(.....)
I see that there is no complete expert trader, at a point everyone experience loss both robots. That's means the market is kind of seasonal, it can favor you today and hit you tomorrow.

That's how trading works, even how expert you are or how experienced you are in trading, you can't always be profitable or always a 100% guaranteed winner.
That's why there are a lot of personalities or influencers on the different social media that are only showing their winners to get the attention of some people.

Overall, you must always think long term and how you preserve your capital.

Yes, I prefer long trade instead of day trading so that I can have plenty of time in other things that worth to be work with. Even in long term trading we should check the charts first to make sure that we are dealing with a good coin that could be a beneficial for us in the long run and long time. We should learn to make DCA as well when starting to trade for long term even for day trade it is still okay because market is volatile.

JoyMarsha

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Quote from: JamesBorn on April 10, 2023, 11:47:13 PM

I see that there is no complete expert trader, at a point everyone experience loss both robots. That's means the market is kind of seasonal, it can favor you today and hit you tomorrow.

The sooner people understood that "there is no expert trader," the better. I wonder how a trader develops the notion that he would make more gains than losses in a market over which he has no influence over.
The crypto market is like that for short-term investors; you might win and lose. However, long-term investors are on the side of profits during market booms(always preferred over short-term).

tygeade

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Quote from: Doan9269 on May 31, 2023, 07:42:37 AM

I'd like the fact that we can understand that the cryptocurrency market is seasonal which means there are peak and off times that we are expected to invest or not to invest in the market base on what we can study or discover about cryptocurrency, but in cryptocurrency, we don't depends on all the occasional experience to have their own seasonal experience eince cryptocurrency is a different entire system from the traditional economy and system

I do think that it would be something special for a lot of people who understands what's going on. But at the same time it could be very well used for trap as well. Like for example we all know that 2024 will be halving, so that means the price will go up a bit more compared to right now, probably somewhere 35-40 range, and then from 2024 halving to a year later, for a full year it will try to beat the ATH price and go higher.

That is how it has been for a long time and we are expecting that to happen all over again. Will it? I have no idea about, maybe it would happen or maybe it won't happen and I have no idea which one will be, everyone thinks it will, but what if it's a trap? What if it goes up in 2024 and down at 2025? We really do not know and it could be anything.

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Quote from: huu78 on May 30, 2023, 03:01:16 AM

Quote from: JamesBorn on April 10, 2023, 11:47:13 PM

Last month my trade was great, I make some dooh but this month is cashloss experiment. I don't really understand the mystical magic behind the technological process of this trading as if someone or something is regulating the system. The system dash you small cash this week and collect big cash from you next week. Is not sweet to bear big loss than gain, and this things happens anytime the market looks like bitcoin wants to boom.

I see that there is no complete expert trader, at a point everyone experience loss both robots. That's means the market is kind of seasonal, it can favor you today and hit you tomorrow.

many markets can be seasonal, meaning that their demand and activity levels fluctuate throughout the year based on various factors such as weather, holidays, and cultural events. Seasonality is a common characteristic of industries like tourism, agriculture, retail, and entertainment, among others

I'd like the fact that we can understand that the cryptocurrency market is seasonal which means there are peak and off times that we are expected to invest or not to invest in the market base on what we can study or discover about cryptocurrency, but in cryptocurrency, we don't depends on all the occasional experience to have their own seasonal experience eince cryptocurrency is a different entire system from the traditional economy and system

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Quote from: justdimin on May 31, 2023, 04:06:39 AM

Quote from: beerlover on May 29, 2023, 11:35:32 AM

I think experts become experts by studying and experience. If you study how to be a great trader and if you keep on trading, then you are going to end up with something good eventually, there is no other way around it, that's how people become rich.

However, if you want to find a quick way to get rich, no matter how much time you spend, you will not become rich because that's not how it works. It should be remembered that bitcoin is volatile and there are so many ways to make money if you are a trader, but if you want to do it well then you need to spend some time on it if you want to make some money. I understand that there are a lot of people who will, but I am worried about all the people who won't be understanding this concept and just think bitcoin is a way to get rich quick.

I agree that it requires countless hours studying and trading in order to become good, too many people hope to see some other person do all of it for them and end up with a good return, but the reality is that it is not going to happen and you are going to end up losing it if you are not careful.

I think checking what others are doing and what you should be doing based on what they are doing is as wrong as it gets and you should be avoiding that if possible. Too many people are acting as if they are going to end up with a problem and we all know that they are not going to do that at all. I think the best thing to do would be having some sort of personal approach and just work hard to become like the people who you wanted to follow, you can do it, everyone can, it just requires hard work that's it.

And this is a truth. Not positive thinking to boost you up. Trading is a long game. Longer than you first imagine having a lambo in our first month. That's a false expectation. To have the luxury you must pay the price and that is where the long hours in front of the screen, backtesting, reading price, journaling, chasing your own dark side, risk management, capital preservation, risk. It will take years to fully grasp the concept of your trading. You must have your OWN trading plan. Not relying too much on a signal service. When beginners see the real thing, they see it as how hard it is. Only strong ones perceiver and go with goals and their vision. Trading will require and demand a lot of yourself. So are you willing to pay the price?

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Quote from: beerlover on May 29, 2023, 11:35:32 AM

I think experts become experts by studying and experience. If you study how to be a great trader and if you keep on trading, then you are going to end up with something good eventually, there is no other way around it, that's how people become rich.

However, if you want to find a quick way to get rich, no matter how much time you spend, you will not become rich because that's not how it works. It should be remembered that bitcoin is volatile and there are so many ways to make money if you are a trader, but if you want to do it well then you need to spend some time on it if you want to make some money. I understand that there are a lot of people who will, but I am worried about all the people who won't be understanding this concept and just think bitcoin is a way to get rich quick.

I agree that it requires countless hours studying and trading in order to become good, too many people hope to see some other person do all of it for them and end up with a good return, but the reality is that it is not going to happen and you are going to end up losing it if you are not careful.

I think checking what others are doing and what you should be doing based on what they are doing is as wrong as it gets and you should be avoiding that if possible. Too many people are acting as if they are going to end up with a problem and we all know that they are not going to do that at all. I think the best thing to do would be having some sort of personal approach and just work hard to become like the people who you wanted to follow, you can do it, everyone can, it just requires hard work that's it.

jeraldskie11

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Quote from: awik p on May 29, 2023, 09:43:55 PM

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on May 29, 2023, 06:33:23 PM

Quote from: rozak on May 28, 2023, 08:12:11 AM

Quote from: TheGreatPython on May 28, 2023, 07:59:39 AM

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on May 26, 2023, 12:04:04 AM

It's normal for a trader to experience losses because no one can predict the market and even profitable traders agree that. But there are many traders who win a lot in a bullish market rather bearish. Here in crypto, if the market is bullish you can possibly earn multiple of your capital and can be up to 50x or 100x, it happened in year 2021. A lot of traders even newbie traders are getting rich because most of their strat are working since the market direction was always going up. But when bearish came up they disappear.
Aside from that, I only base on my analysis in the chart, I won't say Bitcoin is seasonal.

In the sense that it has bearish and bullish trends that occur at different times in different years, we can call Bitcoin seasonal. Maybe it doesn't have a fixed season when it goes up or goes down, but since it is volatile and it is always likely to go down when it's up and go up when it's down, we can clearly say that the price of Bitcoin is seasonal.

It obviously is normal to incur losses when you are trading or doing any kind of business, nothing can provide you with constant profits and you will surely have to face some hard times during the course of whatever you are doing.

what happens to Bitcoin is unpredictable. Even if it's called bear season or bull season, we can only make trading predictions and investment plans based on what's happening in the market.
simply those who invest in the market will buy when the market is in bear season. and sell it during the bull season. but that is not a guarantee someone will benefit. because seasonal periods as you said can never be predicted.

That's right, price of Bitcoin is unpredictable because if you do you would be rich now. We can only anticipate for long whenever the price goes back to the demand zone and anticipate for short whenever the price goes back to supply zone. Since we can't predict the next move of market, that doesn't mean we can't determine if it's now bullish or bearish. We have tools and knowledge to analyze the market if it really bearish or bullish, by doing that you can increase the chance that the market is really bearish or bullish.

all analyzes are based solely on the opportunities of each person's analysis, so it would be natural if there were differences in analysis, and no one knows which analysis is correct, therefore sticking to personal analysis will be better. actually trading is only risk management, so it is very possible for us to experience losses, but what percentage of losses must we set according to our analysis. that way we have to find a way to get a bigger percentage of profits

I concur that we have different analysis in the market, but I'm sure that some of us have the same strategy because we ourselves can't make it on our own. We can enhanced the strategy that we get from others base on the data we got in our backtesting. And ofcourse we have to stick to our strategy especially if this has higher win rate.
Aside from that, I might not agree that trading is only risk management because it will only helps us to make our funds increase it's longevity. So with a low win rate strategy, still couldn't make you profitable.

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Quote from: JamesBorn on April 10, 2023, 11:47:13 PM

Last month my trade was great, I make some dooh but this month is cashloss experiment. I don't really understand the mystical magic behind the technological process of this trading as if someone or something is regulating the system. The system dash you small cash this week and collect big cash from you next week. Is not sweet to bear big loss than gain, and this things happens anytime the market looks like bitcoin wants to boom.

I see that there is no complete expert trader, at a point everyone experience loss both robots. That's means the market is kind of seasonal, it can favor you today and hit you tomorrow.

many markets can be seasonal, meaning that their demand and activity levels fluctuate throughout the year based on various factors such as weather, holidays, and cultural events. Seasonality is a common characteristic of industries like tourism, agriculture, retail, and entertainment, among others

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Quote from: jeraldskie11 on May 29, 2023, 06:33:23 PM

Quote from: rozak on May 28, 2023, 08:12:11 AM

Quote from: TheGreatPython on May 28, 2023, 07:59:39 AM

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on May 26, 2023, 12:04:04 AM

It's normal for a trader to experience losses because no one can predict the market and even profitable traders agree that. But there are many traders who win a lot in a bullish market rather bearish. Here in crypto, if the market is bullish you can possibly earn multiple of your capital and can be up to 50x or 100x, it happened in year 2021. A lot of traders even newbie traders are getting rich because most of their strat are working since the market direction was always going up. But when bearish came up they disappear.
Aside from that, I only base on my analysis in the chart, I won't say Bitcoin is seasonal.

In the sense that it has bearish and bullish trends that occur at different times in different years, we can call Bitcoin seasonal. Maybe it doesn't have a fixed season when it goes up or goes down, but since it is volatile and it is always likely to go down when it's up and go up when it's down, we can clearly say that the price of Bitcoin is seasonal.

It obviously is normal to incur losses when you are trading or doing any kind of business, nothing can provide you with constant profits and you will surely have to face some hard times during the course of whatever you are doing.

what happens to Bitcoin is unpredictable. Even if it's called bear season or bull season, we can only make trading predictions and investment plans based on what's happening in the market.
simply those who invest in the market will buy when the market is in bear season. and sell it during the bull season. but that is not a guarantee someone will benefit. because seasonal periods as you said can never be predicted.

That's right, price of Bitcoin is unpredictable because if you do you would be rich now. We can only anticipate for long whenever the price goes back to the demand zone and anticipate for short whenever the price goes back to supply zone. Since we can't predict the next move of market, that doesn't mean we can't determine if it's now bullish or bearish. We have tools and knowledge to analyze the market if it really bearish or bullish, by doing that you can increase the chance that the market is really bearish or bullish.

all analyzes are based solely on the opportunities of each person's analysis, so it would be natural if there were differences in analysis, and no one knows which analysis is correct, therefore sticking to personal analysis will be better. actually trading is only risk management, so it is very possible for us to experience losses, but what percentage of losses must we set according to our analysis. that way we have to find a way to get a bigger percentage of profits

jossiel

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Quote from: beerlover on May 29, 2023, 11:35:32 AM

I think experts become experts by studying and experience. If you study how to be a great trader and if you keep on trading, then you are going to end up with something good eventually, there is no other way around it, that's how people become rich.

And these people studied very well the market and not just all about studying but even losing, they've tasted it for so many times. These successes in trading doesn't come off instantly, there has to be a strategy for the ones that we're seeing at the top.

Quote from: beerlover on May 29, 2023, 11:35:32 AM

However, if you want to find a quick way to get rich, no matter how much time you spend, you will not become rich because that's not how it works. It should be remembered that bitcoin is volatile and there are so many ways to make money if you are a trader, but if you want to do it well then you need to spend some time on it if you want to make some money. I understand that there are a lot of people who will, but I am worried about all the people who won't be understanding this concept and just think bitcoin is a way to get rich quick.

That is true.

Those that are thinking that they will become rich quickly, they'll end up with nothing and that's for sure. Because the mindset they have is the one that will pull them one.

They won't be satisfied with little gains and little progress. While the rich people that has gone through the traditional method, liked those little gains that they've made and from there, they've made strategies and understood that there will be time in the market that it's profitable and there will be that it won't be.

jeraldskie11

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Quote from: rozak on May 28, 2023, 08:12:11 AM

Quote from: TheGreatPython on May 28, 2023, 07:59:39 AM

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on May 26, 2023, 12:04:04 AM

It's normal for a trader to experience losses because no one can predict the market and even profitable traders agree that. But there are many traders who win a lot in a bullish market rather bearish. Here in crypto, if the market is bullish you can possibly earn multiple of your capital and can be up to 50x or 100x, it happened in year 2021. A lot of traders even newbie traders are getting rich because most of their strat are working since the market direction was always going up. But when bearish came up they disappear.
Aside from that, I only base on my analysis in the chart, I won't say Bitcoin is seasonal.

In the sense that it has bearish and bullish trends that occur at different times in different years, we can call Bitcoin seasonal. Maybe it doesn't have a fixed season when it goes up or goes down, but since it is volatile and it is always likely to go down when it's up and go up when it's down, we can clearly say that the price of Bitcoin is seasonal.

It obviously is normal to incur losses when you are trading or doing any kind of business, nothing can provide you with constant profits and you will surely have to face some hard times during the course of whatever you are doing.

what happens to Bitcoin is unpredictable. Even if it's called bear season or bull season, we can only make trading predictions and investment plans based on what's happening in the market.
simply those who invest in the market will buy when the market is in bear season. and sell it during the bull season. but that is not a guarantee someone will benefit. because seasonal periods as you said can never be predicted.

That's right, price of Bitcoin is unpredictable because if you do you would be rich now. We can only anticipate for long whenever the price goes back to the demand zone and anticipate for short whenever the price goes back to supply zone. Since we can't predict the next move of market, that doesn't mean we can't determine if it's now bullish or bearish. We have tools and knowledge to analyze the market if it really bearish or bullish, by doing that you can increase the chance that the market is really bearish or bullish.

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Quote from: bangjoe on May 26, 2023, 09:41:57 AM

When it comes to expert traders, I think there are, because basically people will get more skilled if they continue to explore their skills in their field, including trading, people who have a lot of experience from market waves will definitely become experts in their trading.
Experts don't mean it's impossible to lose and Experts don't mean you always win, it's just that experts usually lose less compared to the wins they get, because they can take advantage of the season and its opportunities in the market.
attention must be paid to thoroughness and sustainable income everyone also wants it but even if an expert benefits from trading in the world of crypto or stocks and or something else I think it's impossible.

I think experts become experts by studying and experience. If you study how to be a great trader and if you keep on trading, then you are going to end up with something good eventually, there is no other way around it, that's how people become rich.

However, if you want to find a quick way to get rich, no matter how much time you spend, you will not become rich because that's not how it works. It should be remembered that bitcoin is volatile and there are so many ways to make money if you are a trader, but if you want to do it well then you need to spend some time on it if you want to make some money. I understand that there are a lot of people who will, but I am worried about all the people who won't be understanding this concept and just think bitcoin is a way to get rich quick.

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: JamesBorn on April 10, 2023, 11:47:13 PM

(.....)
I see that there is no complete expert trader, at a point everyone experience loss both robots. That's means the market is kind of seasonal, it can favor you today and hit you tomorrow.

That's how trading works, even how expert you are or how experienced you are in trading, you can't always be profitable or always a 100% guaranteed winner.
That's why there are a lot of personalities or influencers on the different social media that are only showing their winners to get the attention of some people.

Overall, you must always think long term and how you preserve your capital.

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Quote from: TheGreatPython on May 28, 2023, 07:59:39 AM

Quote from: jeraldskie11 on May 26, 2023, 12:04:04 AM

It's normal for a trader to experience losses because no one can predict the market and even profitable traders agree that. But there are many traders who win a lot in a bullish market rather bearish. Here in crypto, if the market is bullish you can possibly earn multiple of your capital and can be up to 50x or 100x, it happened in year 2021. A lot of traders even newbie traders are getting rich because most of their strat are working since the market direction was always going up. But when bearish came up they disappear.
Aside from that, I only base on my analysis in the chart, I won't say Bitcoin is seasonal.

In the sense that it has bearish and bullish trends that occur at different times in different years, we can call Bitcoin seasonal. Maybe it doesn't have a fixed season when it goes up or goes down, but since it is volatile and it is always likely to go down when it's up and go up when it's down, we can clearly say that the price of Bitcoin is seasonal.

It obviously is normal to incur losses when you are trading or doing any kind of business, nothing can provide you with constant profits and you will surely have to face some hard times during the course of whatever you are doing.

what happens to Bitcoin is unpredictable. Even if it's called bear season or bull season, we can only make trading predictions and investment plans based on what's happening in the market.
simply those who invest in the market will buy when the market is in bear season. and sell it during the bull season. but that is not a guarantee someone will benefit. because seasonal periods as you said can never be predicted.

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Quote from: mk4 on April 11, 2023, 12:12:46 AM

"Seasonal" is probably a decent term to describe it, but it's simply the fact that certain/individual strategies won't work consistently forever/all the time. It's the same both with technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Adaptation and reflexivity is the key.

Yes market isn’t always the same or predictable. If you keep on following the same strategies and place trades then definitely no one can save you from getting losses. Moreover according to me no strategy works the second time. So yes if you love your hard earned money then you need to come up with new and innovative ideas. The most important factor in trading is that, trade with the market. Become adaptive to the market and trade in limit. That’s how you can save money and probably earn some profits.

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Quote from: jeraldskie11 on May 26, 2023, 12:04:04 AM

It's normal for a trader to experience losses because no one can predict the market and even profitable traders agree that. But there are many traders who win a lot in a bullish market rather bearish. Here in crypto, if the market is bullish you can possibly earn multiple of your capital and can be up to 50x or 100x, it happened in year 2021. A lot of traders even newbie traders are getting rich because most of their strat are working since the market direction was always going up. But when bearish came up they disappear.
Aside from that, I only base on my analysis in the chart, I won't say Bitcoin is seasonal.

In the sense that it has bearish and bullish trends that occur at different times in different years, we can call Bitcoin seasonal. Maybe it doesn't have a fixed season when it goes up or goes down, but since it is volatile and it is always likely to go down when it's up and go up when it's down, we can clearly say that the price of Bitcoin is seasonal.

It obviously is normal to incur losses when you are trading or doing any kind of business, nothing can provide you with constant profits and you will surely have to face some hard times during the course of whatever you are doing.

bangjoe

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Quote from: Blowon on May 03, 2023, 10:42:41 AM

Quote from: JamesBorn on April 10, 2023, 11:47:13 PM

I see that there is no complete expert trader, at a point everyone experience loss both robots. That's means the market is kind of seasonal, it can favor you today and hit you tomorrow.

because of that we have to be smart in looking for opportunities when to buy and when to make a profit by selling it. don't fight crypto flows, because all of that will go according to the existing trends and seasons. It's better to be really thorough and make consistent income patiently, than to be greedy in trading here.

When it comes to expert traders, I think there are, because basically people will get more skilled if they continue to explore their skills in their field, including trading, people who have a lot of experience from market waves will definitely become experts in their trading.
Experts don't mean it's impossible to lose and Experts don't mean you always win, it's just that experts usually lose less compared to the wins they get, because they can take advantage of the season and its opportunities in the market.
attention must be paid to thoroughness and sustainable income everyone also wants it but even if an expert benefits from trading in the world of crypto or stocks and or something else I think it's impossible.

irhact

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Quote from: erixter on May 26, 2023, 02:42:03 AM

The crypto market has historically shown some seasonal patterns, although it is important to note that these patterns are not guaranteed to repeat in the future. Several factors can influence the behavior of the crypto market, including investor sentiment, market trends, and regulatory changes. Additionally, some peoples argue that there are seasonal patterns based on investor behavior and market sentiment. The behavior of the cryptocurrencies market is influenced by a variety of factors beyond seasonal trends, including demand and supply disparities and the market's interest in the product.

I don't think the patterns will stop and if it wants to stop, it won't be happening now because we'll always have the bear and bull market which happens in between every four years cycle. Each cycle would have a different percentage return and that's where I think there'll be some difference. For example, the last bull market we had didn't have much gained generally compared to the bull market of 2017.

We didn't see the altcoins season we expected like the 2017 bull market that the altcoins season came and difference tokens in the market went pumping by gaining big from the flow of cash into the market. We had some altcoins pump in this bull market but it wasn't like 2017.

Inwestour

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Quote from: jeraldskie11 on May 26, 2023, 12:04:04 AM

It's normal for a trader to experience losses because no one can predict the market and even profitable traders agree that. But there are many traders who win a lot in a bullish market rather bearish. Here in crypto, if the market is bullish you can possibly earn multiple of your capital and can be up to 50x or 100x, it happened in year 2021. A lot of traders even newbie traders are getting rich because most of their strat are working since the market direction was always going up. But when bearish came up they disappear.
Aside from that, I only base on my analysis in the chart, I won't say Bitcoin is seasonal.

No matter how good a trader is, even in a bull market, making x50 or x100 in one season is a very big profit. Perhaps some people manage to do this, and it is also not so easy to do when it comes to a large trading deposit.

If you start with a small amount, then it is quite possible that you will allow yourself more risky operations with it and this will bring more profit, but if you start with significant capital, then you will be much more careful with it, and this of course can bring profit, but not like you wrote. For a large capital, even x5-x10 will be considered a very good profit.

Topic: Market is seasonal (Read 761 times)