Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 105. (Read 647054 times)

I'm glad you brought up your own bad experience and it was this exact type of scenario that led me to create my own system to verify what MA was saying.  I got burned during the bottom in commodities/metals thinking it would fall further (as per MA) and the the USD would rocket higher as a safe haven.  I had even mentioned it to others who thankfully ignored my advice (I felt terrible).  After creating my own system I was then easily able to see the bottom in commodities and the temporary high in the USD but you can imagine how infuriating it is to figure this out after the fact.  The reality is that I realized it's just part of the journey toward becoming a good trader.  You always need to know when you're right/wrong at any given point and position in the markets with confidence (which is only gained through experience).  The problem is that MA still may be correct on his comments but the issue is the time frame.  If someone asks what's a good stock to buy and it goes parabolic one month then crashes the next they might be pissed at me.  Was it really a good buy?  Well it all depends on your timing.  If you're a day trader then it was probably a great buy, if not, then you might have been crushed.  This is what I mean, timing is everything.  Bitcoin is another example, is it a good buy or a bad one?  Answer is it depends on your trading style and like any investment timing is everything.  So getting back to MA's comment, the USD is still in an upward trend and it's possible (although unlikely according to my system) for the PM's/commodities to drop further but I've learned to never trade against the trend unless it's at an extreme (2016 commodity bottom was a great example of this because it was at the extreme of a downward trend indicating a likely reversal).  It's alot like racing through a movie to get to the ending but there can be an emotional roller coaster of ups and downs along the way before you get to the finale (only hoping you're right).  Most people don't have the stomach for this and I wouldn't suggest it's a good way to trade either.

Same thing with the other investments you mentioned above versus MA's comments.  The Euro will very likely die a long slow death with alot of short term rallies along the way to shake out both shorts and longs so it's key to know where you are on the trend.  The USD will also likely eventually fail after rising to an extreme height (again MA call) but again who knows the timing on this and how many rallies/declines will come before that final top.  Emerging markets may eventually get crushed from borrowing in USD but again who knows the timing on that either.  So from a macro standpoint MA is likely correct on these but from a trading perspective it's deadly to trade using that info alone, you'll get crushed or wimp out emotionally from taking heavy paper losses along the way.  From all the ones you mentioned, when looking at my system I would currently be long all the ones you mentioned (Emerging Markets, European Market, US Market) buying dips and selling peaks with stops on my trades.  The only one I would be shorting now is Turkey (currently only one in a downward trend).  China and India remain very strong upward trends as well.

Again I think there's alot of both good and bad to MA's stuff so just because some of it isn't good for trading I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.  His ECM has been right far too often, it defies your typical coin flip probability.  The timing on this stuff is extremely complex and honestly I really don't even watch news either because it's all completely biased with people giving explanations to fill the gap in hindsight (most of it absolute rubbish).  I will still be watching the ECM for major turning points going forward to see how we do in 2020.05 and listening to MA's macro comments because if something does take place shortly after then, yet again it will be worth my while to have given it a second look.  If nothing happens then again my system is still there to keep me well positioned in the game.

It wasn't pretty. I got out break even. But at least it was simple. If anything this single observation adds to my own pile of evidence supporting the view that it is almost impossible to predict market movement. Martin Armstrong tries to defeat this - quite unsuccessfully. The difference is that he cheats using various methods that create false evidence showing that he can do it. See:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51666429


I have also taken some losses lately. These were the result of my belief that there would be a divergence between Emerging markets, European markets and the US market. This belief comes from what Martin Armstrong has been preaching for years. All wrong. Even Turkey the Basket Case. Rallied. Even in USD terms recently. Not exciting, no new highs, but still quite the contrary to what Martin Armstrong is saying like

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-october-22-2018/
Emerging markets are in meltdown yet no-one wants to admit it.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up since 2018-10-22. Had you traded based on his statement at the time, you would have lost money. Period.

Then in a Socrates report:

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Tue. Jun. 11, 2019: MSCI EM $ (Global)
...
False reaction for now on this level.
...


This indicates that the reaction rally is false and should be shorted. WRONG. Kept rallying.

So NOT reading his stuff should save some people a lot of money. Or do the opposite of what he says like https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51490978


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

How did your simple to find Brazil short go?  Hopefully you got out on the day you posted this otherwise you could have taken a big loss

Martin Armstrong cloned himself

For those who haven't noticed:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51666429

Armstrong says that Socrates is a clone of himself. The link to his statement is at the end of the article.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

No you don't have an obligation to share anything and I apologize for being so persistent because I really believed we could finally get to the bottom of the reversals.  You refuse to share so I guess we will continue to flounder.  However I disagree that you are a person of high integrity.  Where was your integrity when you advocated that I should lie about being from the SEC to the Socrates customer support to get historical reversal data.  


Where was your qualms about violating the Socrates terms of service when you shared this data.  


I can respect that you don't want to share the data, but don't act like the reason you won't share the data is because of some moral code when you have clearly violated this 'integrity' on multiple occasions.

You insult me because I disagreed with you argument that,

"You can see the fatal consequences of this in Socrates. For example, currencies are a total disaster, as also confirmed by another poster earlier in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?"topic=1082909.msg51605753#msg51605753

The post you use as evidence states

 "I had the Pro membership of the EUR/USD until 2 weeks ago. Do you think that it gave a clear indication that the Euro would rise against the USD?
Now MA mentioned in one of his latest blogposts: "This conflict gave a boost to the Euro but the model had been calling for a rally into July after the elections which we have seen also in gold.""

I then gave the results of a bullish reversal that was elected on 6/7/19 which is as follows,

week 1: EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
Week 2: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
Week 3:  EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain

This "singular observation" is related to the question of "Do you think that it gave a clear indication that the Euro would rise against the USD?" which to me, it clearly did.  In future discussions please try to hold to your "high integrity" and refrain from using insults when evidence is used to refute your arguments.  Thank you.  You still have my email in your private messages, if you ever have a change of heart and decide to share your data.  Have a Happy Fourth of July!

....... And the beatings will continue until morale improves

I understand there's people here that want to prove this guy is an idiot at all costs but for me as trader I could care less if he's crazy, reckless, lying or whatever.  All I care about is if any of his stuff works at all and if so what can I use to make my trades more profitable.  I believe there are some good concepts in what he talks about but you need to be able to discern good from bad in order to use any of it. Having created my own system which does work I can tell you markets are definitely fractal and often self-referring so that much is true (from my experience anyway).  Same thing with cycles, they are extremely complex but they appear to not be entirely random (again from my experience).  No supercomputer(s) in the world has the ability to figure out all the events that lead up to a given outcome (we're talking butterfly flaps it's wings, nearly infinite possibilities).  The question is more whether or not there is some other timing at work that would allow you to predict future outcomes/events without knowing all the details of how you arrive there.  I personally haven't finished ruling that out and I think doing so would assume we already know everything there is about how it all works (obviously wrong too).  This issue I've seen when trading is that as you go down into smaller time frames noise (volatility, manipulations,  interference, etc) becomes far more pronounced and makes reading the markets far harder than it did before algos were in use and central banks were buying equities.   I suspect MA's original system (assuming it exists) would have much more effective back before this as well.  This noise in the markets causes alot more headfakes, false breakouts, etc so you have to be that much better at screening it all out which is why the larger time frames are much more accurate (again from my experience).

Now as I've stated, MA's public Socrates project I agree is not worth any further effort IMHO.  I have tried it and would never trade using it for any reason.  Everything I have seen folks comment on in this thread was based on this project only.  So from that standpoint I totally agree but over the years he's made some pretty stunning calls that appeared out of left field (he even called the Patriots loss to the Eagles prior to the game, WTF?).  Is he just randomly lucky that the math works and his prediction correct or is there something else there?  I would argue the probability is extremely low that is the case (it's like getting a hole-in-one, how many does a golfer get over a career?).  His day-to-day stuff I don't listen to anymore because it's far too fuzzy and confusing (and often wrong).  This issue I would bring up is what about his other work which was correct?  Claiming his other system is a myth is also pure speculation, is there any proof of this?  If not then I would suggest everyone to stick to straight facts of what you can actually prove because as you pointed out that is what we are really after.  Not attacking anyone but I think facts are very important when discussing topics like this.

I already expressed my thoughts about the MA and Socrates in post no 5709 on June 28

In several posts here other commentators were talking about Socrates being a system.

A trading system needs at least the following parts: 
-   1 A rule how to Enter into a position in a market
-   2 If a position is entered immediately set the level where you put your stop loss order
-   3 Rules how to manage the trade if the market goes in the desired direction until the trade is closed out
-   4 Money Management Rules: how much do I risk per trade (less is better!)
                                                  If I trade multiple markets at the same time how much is my total risk (again less is better – your survival rate in the market goes up!)

Now most Advisors/Gurus/Websites/”Systems” touted on the internet and on “Trading Shows” tell you about point no 1 (the Entry).
Now in my opinion points 2 to 4 together are more important than no 1.
But in MA and Socrates he doesn’t even give a clearly mathematically defined Entry.
And all the other points are not even mentioned.
Also to calculate point 4 you need to be able to do historical testing over long periods (the longer the better) with the exact rules. This will give you a lot of the data needed to decide if and how to trade the system and on what portfolio.
You might find out that the great System generated 15% pa return but had twice a drawdown in excess of 50 %.  So nobody would be able to trade that from a mental/and stomach perspective.
So,  Socrates does not even provide the Entries. Also it turned now out, that the nice looking Charts with the Arrows he sometimes uses on his blog, are not from the reversals of his site.
So MA and Socrates does not provide a System. Nowhere on his site (free to pro subscriber).
Also without going through some  extensing testing over long  historical data sets you cannot make a call on the points 2 to 4.
So in my opinion nobody can trade  with that information provided successfully and with confidence over a longer time.

So I have to give it a fat thumbs DOWN

Recent interview on Financial Survival Network:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1340&v=DHvPuNOPWVg

'From summer rally going into a decline this fall, until it finally turns in 2020' (around minute 42:00)


I remember he called earlier for a high in July, can't find the exact blogpost.

He's been calling it for most of this year so a dig through blog posts will uncover numerous comments.

A selection is below from the posts that I received while having the Pro subscription so not all links may be publicly accessible.


1st April 2019 “The Share Market Outloo” (Yes - Outloo - that was his typo)

While we DO NOT yet see new highs unfolding above 2018 until we enter 2020, what does emerge here is that we appear to be building a much high base during this period of a downward cycle.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5ca180547bc98d092c1efdad


2nd April 2019 “The Dow - Euro - Capital Flows”

We can see that our Energy models on the Weekly Level continue to make new record high even though the Dow has not made new high above that of 2018. This model alone is confirming we are going to make new historical high beyond 2020

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5ca2c76e1dd9531104b93d30


14th May 2019 “Dow for May 14, 2019”

That this is still a consolidation period and it is not likely to change until we enter 2020.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cdaaead1dd95316c8c07acb


15th May 2019 “Dow for May 15th, 2019”

Once more, we do not yet see a major correction of 40% as most seem to be calling. We are consolidating ideally for 2 years from the 2018 high into 2020 before any breakout unfolds.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cdbb8de7bc98d0e00ad5587


6th June 2019 “The Dow into July”

Once again, we do not see a breakout to the upside until the ECM turns and likewise, we do not see a major crash.

https://ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5cf922077bc98d1474efd2d0

Could you please provide the URL where Martin Armstrong predicted this. Many thanks. I also see that the CAC-40 French stock market has a new high. He predicted a turning point recently, see https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/forecasting-turning-points/

but I haven't found the original message where he predicted that this would be THE high as I remember.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Ah yes another MA prediction has fallen short. 2019 was a consolidation year... No new highs, no lower lows. Yet here we are - all-time highs across the board.

I do not have an obligation to share data with any 3rd party.

If you think that I do, because it appears to you not doing so would be inconsistent with what you think should be my agenda, then you are wrong.

For me, what counts are facts, and I am a person of high integrity.

Therefore, I cannot become corrupted.

Selling this data would be corrupt.

Sharing this data would perhaps violate the Socrates terms of use.


What REALLY needs to happen is that Socrates provides historical data, the real one, not the corrupted one as in https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51666429

Please everybody who reads this ask Socrates Customer Support <[email protected]> to supply report files, historical data, daily, weekly, monthly elected reversals, blog posts history since the start of the Socrates service in 2016. As a function of the Socrates service, available without subscription, on a daily basis. So that interested potential customers can evaluate the system before subscribing.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

ARE YOU SERIOUS!?!? I have basically begged for your reversal data so that I wouldn't have to make an observation on a single sample, and then you have the gall to insult me because I don't have access to the information you refuse to provide.

I don't care about the "phantom reversals", arrays, GMW, Armstrong's commentary,  or Socrates commentary.  My one and only goal is to test the 3 timeframe rule on reversals that have been posted and subsequently elected. 

What is your goal on this forum? To help people stop people spending their time and money on Armstrong's predications and to stop buying his subscriptions?  Well you're basically telling me I have to  spend years worth of time and money to get the same data that you are privy to now, just to test my theory.

Do you want compensation for the reversal data, do you have a paypal or venmo?  Maybe 75$ for all the Dow data since the data will only be used for analysis purposes.  Please, if the reversals are as useless as you say they are, then let me test my theory and come to the same conclusion as you!

Because a one third of a single sample is not a challenge. You have cherry picked the situation of 3 weeks trading period out of three possibilities 1, 2, 3 weeks. Can't you see that is the ultimate joke? olegrey, this is not the sort of stuff for you. Try making pizza or something like that. More fun.

If you had 500 samples, and out of 500, more than 250 would be profitable, then I would feel challenged


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

olegrey, you are a genius. You have graduated to the three star degree of a data meta-science engineer.
[/quote]
I'm simply refuting your point that "currencies were a total disaster".  Why do you feel the need to be sarcastic when challenged?

According to the three timeframe rule his reversal system did successfully predict the rise in the eur/usd

week 1: EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
Week 2: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
Week 3: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain
[/quote]

olegrey, you are a genius. You have graduated to the three star degree of a data meta-science engineer.

You mastered the extraordinary challenge of single observation based statistics.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

According to the three timeframe rule his reversal system did successfully predict the rise in the eur/usd

week 1: EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
Week 2: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain
Week 3:  EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain

Martin Armstrong early in his writings where he described his discovery of the reversal system, also described an assumption, that can be found in all of his systems, as follows (I am quoting from memory):

If some rule holds in one time frame then it must hold in all time frames. This applies to reversals and forecast arrays.

Then the next one is that all so-called models are applied to all markets in the same fashion, regardless of the type of market - stocks, commodities, currencies.

Another problem is that the forecast arrays are not sensitive to the strength of the market moves. We will always get turning points, up/down predictions even if there is no indication of sufficient momentum to even consider these signals. I am sure that anyone who studied them will have noticed.

To combine these concepts and apply them to systems as non-linear as financial markets is extremely naive. I honestly think that the guy is crazy, reckless beyond any description.

You can see the fatal consequences of this in Socrates. For example, currencies are a total disaster, as also confirmed by another poster earlier in this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51605753

So how does Martin Armstrong get out of this mess? Answer: By means of a patchwork of adjustments, and (sometimes fraudulent as I have shown here in this blog) tricks. Part of the adjustment process is that he knows from experience which models work in which markets best, and which models in which markets work best in specific market conditions. This is extremely important because the reversal system is a trend following system that has zero chance of success in a mainly sideways trading market such as now.

Even then, when Gold developed a clear trend in a seven week rally such as described in

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51666429

, the reversal system failed to elect even a single weekly reversal. What I am trying to say here is that we do not necessarily see the opportunities that the system misses.

The problem is that his programs are so shallow and of poor quality, that these programs do not self-adjust. Obviously as I have to say because I can see it in the results.

For Martin Armstrong however, this is not a conflict wide enough to not be worked around by some kind of evasive strategy. In this case, cherry-picking is the right term. He would cherry-pick the markets and market conditions for his block posts. Therefore, analyzing the performance of his models by inspecting the predictions made in the blog posts is not useful, because you will not be able to cherry-pick from Socrates reports the way that he does. Still, his blog post forecasts have failed occasionally.

Now to think that he has some kind of super-Socrates in his garage is a myth, and the myth will perhaps grow bigger as he gets older. These myths always develop around shady personalities who do not work in a scientific manner. People need these myths as much they need UFOs or the dream of human life on Mars. We would really need a proof that he has such as separate system. That is the way I am operating. It is perhaps possible that two distinct systems exist because of some legacy transition process. But I can tell you from my professional IT experience, that it would be a nightmare to technically maintain two separate systems with the resources that he has (a single programmer), even assuming that his systems are of minimal complexity which I do (after having seen the output they produce).



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

If you willing to share your data, I'd be more than willing to help analyze!  I'll send you my email in a private message