Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 109. (Read 647054 times)

Here are the month 2 results

GDAX monthly bullish 0.4% gain
GDX monthly bearish 22.4% loss
SP 500 monthly bullish 0.1% loss
TLT monthly bearish 7.4% loss
ZW Wheat futures monthly bearish 23.0% loss

Week 3 results

$DXY weekly bearish 0.4% gain
EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain
GDAX weekly bullish 2.3% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.6% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.3% gain
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% gain
Visa weekly bullish 2.1% gain
Cotton weekly bearish 0.9% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 6.6% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 0.7% gain

I would certainly not show anyone. I would use it all for myself, use it as a teller machine as Martin Armstrong likes to claim. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/personal-questions-the-club/ And I would not need to run conferences.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Well I guess you've made your mind up based on this last post.  My thinking is that if central banks and sovereign wealth funds attend his WEC's and seek him out, and he was thrown in jail for not giving up his software code - there is probably more back-end than you think.   You could always start your own service and show him how it's done... 



   

Again I have to disappoint you.

The computer is NOT presented with such information. There are no backend inputs you don't see. The computer is presented with so little information it is shocking

The computer processes about 1,000 markets, each of them in isolation, each of them using very little information only. The Socrates back-end is a collection of mickey-mouse programs that were written by a single person, perhaps two.

Armstrong has claimed that his system runs on a supercomputer which is not true:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51583360

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I'm not talking about the price history of a single market - I'm talking about all of the backend inputs you don't see that make up the data set which Socrates pulls from to learn and project future events.  Anything can alter the outcome of events which is why TIME is so important.  (example - you go to a bar and see a pretty girl sitting by herself and having a drink - you walk up to her and talk and hit it off -- and then her boyfriend comes in and sits down next to her.  that night she has a terrible fight with her boyfriend and goes back to the bar the next day.  if you had been there the next day what would the likely outcome be vs the previous day?) 

The thing I've learned reading Armstrong is that it is impossible for the human mind to do what a computer can do when presented with so much information.  Plus we as humans have bias.   

I have to disappoint you.

The forecast arrays have only a single input. Which is the price history of the single market you are looking at, in a single time frame such as weekly. This is shockingly little data. Why otherwise would you need to look at multiple arrays to get the picture?

Have you ever seen in a report written by Socrates a reference to another market such as very important currency, or peer evaluation, of evaluation in the context of the sector that market is part of?

No you haven't. That is because Socrates does not use that information.

These claims that the computer looks at everything are bogus.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Well - I'm glad to know that I'm not the only one who has trouble understanding the arrays. 

Everyone can have their own point of view on Armstrong - but somewhere in all of the information presented are data inputs that we can't possibly all track or know about.  There is value there (for me) if I can figure out how to decipher what is presented and plan accordingly.  At some point it all falls apart -- and the dollar gets devalued. 

Here is a link to his book "The Greatest Bull Market in History".   Anyone who has this much knowledge about economics and the markets deserves my attention. 

http://web.archive.org/web/20000817012023/http://www.princetoneconomics.com/Research/GBM/GBM-MAST.HTM#1

As far as I am concerned, I have first believed Martin Armstrong and thought that I could not to reconcile the arrays with the reality because it was my lack of knowledge. So, I studied hundreds of them, and analyzed hundreds of reports where the computerized interpretation such as the following failed:

Considering all timing factors, there is a possibility of a rally moving into Wed. 26th with the opposite trend thereafter into Thu. 27th (NOTE: this can be intraday or on a closing basis).

Considering that these arrays are derived exclusively from the single time series, the price history of a single market, a rational observer with IT experience such as me MUST come to the conclusion:

Wishful thinking, bogus, gimmick. Chapter closed.

I feel ashamed that I even spent THAT much energy on them.

Why would someone spend money to acquire some skills to decode information provided by a computer, delivered by an application (Socrates) designed to be used by end users?

Where the desired information, the end result is as simple as "up today" and "down tomorrow".

Quite simply speaking, as a four year old without a pocket calculator would conclude:

The computer is stupid. The person trying to decode the output from a stupid computer is a fool.

Out of simple self interest, I would ask Socrates support: Hey, I am interested in visiting your conference. But I cannot justify going there unless I understand the arrays. Please explain them to me.

You see, the people WANT to be taken for a ride. They are afraid to even face the reality.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

You can give it a try, but I doubt that you will be able to decode the arrays from subscription.
Unlike most here, I still think there is value in Socrates, but unfortunately there is no info on how to understand it completely, especially the arrays.

I appreciate the response and information.  I did read the last few pages of this thread and saw that many folks questioned the accuracy of his predictions and perhaps his real intentions.   I have been stumped by his arrays since their inception and can only tell you that the information I was able to glean (and understand) from Socrates and his private blog has saved my bacon on two drug stocks, and also gold.  I am not by any means an active investor and am trying to learn where and how to position myself for the years ahead - and I want to do it now before the mad rush begins.  You mentioned commodities - think that is a place to be but not sure how to play it.  He puts out reports from time to time and I'd like to get my hands on "How to trade a vertical market" and others... if anyone has them. 

I will say that I can't think of anyone else that has been more thought provoking and accurate as Armstrong -- from a cycle-trend perspective.  He wrote a book 25 years ago that explains what happened during the depression and how govts. reacted -- and it is playing out as he explains.   He also is (to my mind) the world's foremost expert on currency and how it is created, circulated, changed, debased, etc.   Fascinating grasp of history and really is important to know how things played out in the past. 

I'm hoping to connect with others who may have a firm grasp of what is going on and view Armstrong's input as another data-point to consider.  Would really like to know what he sees for gold in the next 30-60 days if anyone subscribes to Socrates actively... 

Agree with all of the above.

Would you be able to provide references to a couple of major recent failed predictions please. The really prominent ones. I want to refer to them elsewhere. Sorry if you already did and I missed it. This blog gets very long and difficult to search. Many thanks.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Unless you haven't read the past 15 pages of this thread, the consensus is more or less agreed that the arrays do not work and Socrates is unusable for trading.

As yet, no one has posted any evidence to the contrary. Were they to, everyone on this board would gladly change their mind.

The WEC (of which I attended in 2018) is only worth attending if you do not care about $2750; would like to meet MA's readership in person; and would like a brief couple of minutes with MA to get a photo or ask him a burning question. While some of the socioeconomic information is interesting, the bad calls in recent years has put a bit of a stain on it. A lot is just a more in-depth commentary of what is covered on his blog.

You also get the usual Clipart/Wordart powerpoint presentations, only projected onto big screens. Typical attendee demographic, at least in the US, is white, male, nearing or is retired, and wealthy. I can't see the value in attending more than one where it will be the same style of content pushed out, and the major calls/ECM predictions are explained in his blog. You won't come away from the WEC any more likely to make money investing.

There are some interesting ideas for longer term trading e.g. the forecast commodities boom 2020-2024 where allegedly even buying an index tracker of the CA and AU stock market is likely to make you money. However, where a lot of calls from MA have come to pass or the reverse has happened, I would approach these types of recommendations with caution, even if MA insists it is the machine and not him that has picked these investment ideas.

He has forecast some longer term trends accurately, but no better than any other experienced analyst. The decline in EU banking shares into 2018 being one. But he has made far more misses. His bigger recent call was political/economic/banking "chaos" in May 2019. Nothing happened. Jan 2020 is the big one. If that passes by without drama, I really do think the jury is out.

Some interesting reading here about different viewpoints on Martin Armstrong's writings and predictions.

I am a follower and read his blog daily.  He's opened my eyes to how things are interconnected and I take his information as one more data point to consider as things start to fall apart globally.  He's been scary accurate on cycles and how politics effect the global economy.  Global cooling too - no denying that.

Would like to connect with anyone here that follows him and discuss his arrays and how to read them - I can't figure them out and have been trying to get a better handle on trends that they predict a few months out.  I used to subscribe to Socrates but don't anymore but am thinking of going back.  I've learned that it doesn't matter what I think will happen - it's how others act and react based to their circumstances and situation.

If anyone can help on the arrays or would like to discuss MA - please send me a private message.  If you have been to one of his WEC's or are planning to go to the next one - would especially like to discuss.   Tks in advance.

Great post!

It is always good to hear from professional and experienced traders to get their perspective, where from those followers of MA I have met, very few were professional traders. They were all very positive of MA with no objective thoughts. The one person at his WEC I spoke to who was a professional trader explained he didn't use MA's services or advice to trade, but was there for the socioeconomic insights.

Your comment only further confirms that Socrates just doesn't work. At worst it is a total fabrication.

The hysterics/fear mongering, I believe, is done purely to sell conference event tickets. It whips up panic and hysteria among his (primarily nearing retirement) audience, and in such an emotive state, logic/reasoning get thrown out the window and MA makes a cool $1m as another 400 attendees walk through the doors of his WEC.

Then like the reversals or alleged government intervention that "only extends the cycle", where if his prophesied day of Armageddon comes to pass, he can talk it away as a "correct" prediction if only those pesky politicians would stop moving the goal posts - MA explains the WEC is always timed to occur at major turning points or flashpoints of his ECM.

What is potentially nearer the truth is that nothing happens on those predicted "flashpoint" dates, they are just an excellent means of selling event tickets because of the psychology behind it. I will say it again: MA has mastered human psychology, not trading/economics. He excels as a salesman, not a trader.

Agree with your advice. Following Socrates for trading is no different than playing roulette with the S&P 500. In fact, the latter would probably be more successful. There are superior resources out there for trading ideas, or as you mention, robo/funds are an easy way to get some exposure to asset classes that could pay superior returns than just holding cash.

I await Jan 2020 as MA's next major call. If that turns into 2015.75 version 2.0 then I wonder if he might be flying close to the rule of law once again if any of his fervent readership keep buying at the wrong time; selling their houses at the wrong time; cashing in their pensions at the wrong time - and finally the penny drops for them at long last - and in comes the lawyers.

Here is another example that had me thinking... "What?"

From May 7, 2019:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/macrone-order-italian-is-no-longer-to-be-taught-in-france/

I thought this sounded very odd. Googled it and cannot find any reference anywhere online that such a law exists or was even discussed by France. Either MA misheard or misunderstood something and typed out a load of nonsense, or this is all part of his fabricated "doom and gloom" MO that casts such a "spell" over his readership, they are more inclined to buy his products.

As Barclay Lieb describes in his book that speaks often about MA, his former employer's blog content post-jail time had turned into ever increasing volumes of nonsensical writing.

Sorry to step in but I think since I have the numbers ...

Not aware of a DJI weekly bearish but would not be surprised if there was one.

However:

SP500 Weekly Bearish: 284862, Date Elected: 2019-05-24, Future Date (1 period): 2019-05-31, Future close 275206, GAIN: 2.6%

So you get a profit if you trade one week. I am too lazy to check the 3 week result. Perhaps a loss.

olegrey, this is what I am saying, as long as the system does not say what the trading period is 1, 2, or 3 weeks, a reversal is actually worthless.

Keep researching Perhaps in a few years, you will come to the same conclusion that I have.

Tip: Study data science. Is quicker.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Do you mind giving me the number for the bearish reversal that was elected?

I am glad you say that. I feel we need to watch out for this: Martin Armstrong's sensationalist writings often have a negative and vindictive https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/is-new-york-trying-to-take-over-tesla-by-removing-elon-musk-with-the-help-of-the-sec/ tone and lack the required research. As such, they often paint a distorted picture of the markets which may result in bad trading decisions if taken seriously.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

As others have mentioned the reversals are hit and miss. I have found the daily levels useful at times - although only as a confirmation tool for my existing system.

While I've been following the system (6mths+) the weekly reversals that have been hit all would have led to a loss-making trade based on MA/Socrates timing. I've mentioned this on several occasions but he categorically missed the last two market run-ups and was bearish immediately beforehand.

Example: A weekly bearish reversal was elected at the end of May. Mkt closed around 24,800. He called for 23,700 (he actually gave 3 or 4 numbers across multiple posts - zero consistency). Over the next 3 weeks, within the timeframe that MA/Socrates says the next target should be moved towards, the market puts on 2,000ts (to current levels)... His recommended stop loss? 25,885... A 1,000 fricken point stop loss...

I've been paying the pro subscription which will lapse next week and I won't be renewing. The primary reasons being, my system is able to capture the majority of the technical analysis which Socrates provides (i.e. reversals) so value add for the spend isn't there, and, MA is not able to accurately predict market movements even though his sensationalist writing attempts otherwise. The impact of that is that a users perspective is influenced incorrectly and undermines confidence.