Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 147. (Read 647176 times)

bikefront, is that the raw text from Armstrong?

You can ALWAYS be right when you LOOK BACK, because nobody will refer to something that was just wrong.  And based on all the text from Armstrong, can anyone feel extremely certain about Armstrong's FORECAST??  What EXACTLY is he saying?  How about just make it simple?  Is it going to be UP or DOWN in March or in May, versus today's price???  That's all anyone wants to know.

And he canNOT even tell you that or he does not want to tell you that?  So he is a great forecaster, with forecasts that don't tell me in certain words that market will be UP or DOWN, although there are directional changes here and there, etc.  All confusing terms, but non-profitable information.

His calls for the short-term are mostly "not good", let's just put it that way.

Calling a low in the first quarter 2019, right around the Dec 24th 2018 bottom is simply NOT helpful for ANY traders.  QQQ has risen 10.5% from that bottom in just 2 weeks.  It would have been much more helpful, if he said that a short-term bottom is very near, and buy it and sell the bounce, instead of telling subscribers that the coming low is in Q1.  By that time, few people would go back and check his past claims, but instead look forward again for any "potential" trades that can be made.  And Armstrong will again say market "may" do this, or "may" do that.  If the "may" turns out to be right, he claims it.  If the "may" turns out to be wrong, well, didn't you read the English?  It was "may".  Again, the filtering makes him automatically successful in predictions.

And that's what Armstrong does on a constant basis, "tracking" the market as it goes along.  The problem is always that the only guys that could lose money are the subscribers, and not him ever, since he will always collect the subscription fees.

Well, here are the benchmarks up till today. Interesting to plot them out on a chart to see the turning points.

https://ibb.co/wrgLHrr

The silver/gold benchmark is 14/16 weeks.  Don't remember which one is 14 or 16 weeks.  I studied the benchmarks going back for decades, and there is nothing to it, except that 14 & 16 weeks are rather SHORT cycles, and give you LOTS of points to be plotted.  Combining with the "art" of picking the points that actually are top/bottom, and ignoring the points that are totally meaningless, VIOLA!  It's just a perfect indicator for gold/silver.  Every single mindless indicator will work, if you simply pick the points that work, and ignore the points that don't work.  And Armstrong also plays the combination of the two indicators, and again, the combo gives you quite a lot of points, because the greater common multiple of 14 & 16 weeks is 112 weeks.  That's about every 2 years.  And again, use the same methodology, pick the points that work, and ignore the points that don't, and it will be perfect too.

Armstrong always explain away when the points from the benchmark or PI or ECM don't work.  He will always say that due to a confluence of things, and other factors, etc, etc, the high/low doesn't appear.

Sure thing.  And he calls that science and technology, and mocks every economist out there for being inside a fish bowl.

I think if and whenever Socrates "Trader version" goes live we will see the combo of timing with the reversals. Maybe socrates could write a report on the timing of that? haha. A true buy and sell indicator if in when it goes live. As you know emotions are what kill traders. Following an AI computer will do much better than most and should outperform the indexes easily. I have traded for myself for almost 30 years. Armstrong is one of many people I read and follow. Some excellent calls and some other were bumped down the road.

p.s. I believe a silver benchmark is on 2019-01-07. I have it marked on my calendar. Here is a chart of the last few benchmarks in silver.

https://ibb.co/Yffkk7W

buy/sell signals?  There you go:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/filtering-the-reversals-what-level-to-use/

This is always the problem that I have with Martin Armstrong.  AT THE CLOSING of the given time period (in this case, it's year), he finally changes the phase transition to important high for 2018.  It's just like any technical indicators that require a closing price to plot the next point.  In the meantime, the best opportunities are lost.  Hindsight is always 20-20.

The call for "major high" of 2032 is almost as good as nothing.  I can make such calls as well.  Stock market will be higher than 2018 closing in 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2037, 2038, etc.  Due to general long term inflation, the chance of my calls being correct is very likely correct.  For the span of 13 years, you can almost squeeze 2 bull markets and 1 bear market.  How about just say that put your money into stocks, and after 50 years, I guarantee that you make make at least double, if not quadruple?

Didn't Armstrong say that you need to do "positional trading" right before the bottom fell out of in December?  Now positioning for 2032, instead of 2020?  How about positioning for 2050, etc?  I bet that's going to be a big win.

I checked the voting.  29 people voted, and 0% made good money, while 45% found that it's not helpful.  The 17% said that it's helpful, but apparently, they did NOT make profits from it.

At the end of the days, it does NOT matter how "good" your brain "thinks" Armstrong's blog is.  The only thing that matters is PROFIT.  Whether your thinking about Armstrong's blog is correct or not (due to brainwash, or due to truly excellent "AI" computer), it really does NOT matter.  If his blog is unable to give you PROFITABLE trading actions/signals, it is NOT useful.

As I have stated a couple of times, the EASIEST way for Armstrong to help his subscribers is to simply generate and give real-time BUY/SELL signals, like MANY other stock newsletters do.  That will reduce ANY confusion of interpretation of his blog writing.

And WHY is he NOT doing that, when he has the "greatest AI trading computer" to automate such process?  I can only think of one reason, which is exactly the same reason for MANY other stock newsletters that do NOT give buy/sell signals.  And the reason is that once they show their real trades, and cannot show a consistent profitable track, their newsletter service will go to trash.

Well, MAs most recent blog post states that the DOW may correct into mid March, but may come sooner with this recent sell off. He is extending his forecast for a "Major high" until 2032. He stated that 2020 would not be the "Major" brake-out to the upside. The computer has Marked 2018 as an "Important high" after listing the years prior as break out and Phase transition years since 2010.

So maybe a pause for 2019 at least for the first quarter and no major up move in the market for a while, but still leading to growth as capital moves to US Equities.

His 2019 market report will an interesting read and an outline for 2019 with the important numbers to watch.

How was that for a year end closing?
Based on closing below the last stated monthly reversal on his blog we should retest the lows as Armstrong has stated. 16 points below the reversal.
The 2019 Market share report should be interesting

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9RLEpE2M/

Depending on the year end numbers we may see a quick dip into January/ Feb. My suggestion would not be to short this but to either go to  cash and re-buy in mid January to Feb. or ride it out depending on your time frame of investment.

Please message me regarding the report. Ensure your message settings can allow for private messages from "Newbies" go to:
profile
modify profile
personal message options
Check the box "allow newbies to send messages'

Newbies to this forum. Only tried a gain during the last call at the end of Oct or Nov??? Which called for a decline as breached a weekly bearish reversal. However still in a long position so is having quite a loss now...(not sure about if the reversals are short term or long term so dared not to short the market in the recent decline). Is thinking of making a short position (of coz after the 31 no. out).

Anyone is interested to share the cost of the 2018 year end report? Or is it possible to share the cost?

We bounced down off the monthly bearish. A close below on Monday and we should test the redline in January according to MA

Glad to hear that you are staying onboard! : )

Yes a great call and I am waiting with baited breath for year end numbers!

for all of you newbies out here who recently discovered Marti the Charlatan, read my earlier posts where I totally exposed this con artist and extensively covered all of his dirty tricks. You will never make money buying his crap and eventually go broke just like himself and his japanese clients whose money he stole after wasting more than half of it on bad trades.

Interesting Interview from Oct, 2018 where MA mentions the 21600 number in the DOW. Today he wrote, " We have held our target support which on the Dow was 21600 a Monthly Bearish Reversal. We made the new low and have rallied nicely. This is a bounce most likely into next week." He was talking about 21,600 back in Oct.

https://moneytalks.net/a-warning-from-martin-armstrong/

Well, I have reduced the amount of trades I am doing and using the private blog to help with timing. For example, Oct high. January 2019 low. Watching the recent sell off saved me about 15% of my portfolio if I was still invested. The day to day Socrates stuff is just noise to me and I am rather trying to get the larger trends. The GMW is not so useful, but MA's commentary is.
I am interested in the 2019 market report that will come out in January -sort of a road map of the future. It is likely $750usd however.

I think it needs to be possible to answer on this question anonymously. E.g. with an Online poll. I've just created one on this question since I'm also interested in the answer.  It would be great if people here would participate as much as possible.
http://www.easypolls.net/poll.html?p=5c227cd7e4b02e7a7210ddcb

I'd like to know if any subscriber made money RECENTLY by subscribing to Armstrong's service.

You would "think" that given the big volatility in the stock market, there are more opportunities for bigger gain/loss.

Or is Armstrong continuing to "track" his forecast based on the current market, just like a moving average curve that always tracks, and always "seemingly" correct when you plot it out, but always TOO LATE for making any money?  When you look back, the hindsight (moving averages are dependent on the recent past values of the curves) is ALWAYS 20-20.

Only a few days left and the Dow is a good bit under the 2017 close, I wonder if it will close below and will just chop around for a few years as armstrong has mentioned. It has been very quite from his side lately, you would think that after these crazy few days and a new yearly low he would post something? Also, where is his trader system, it was going to be released during the WEC, we are now almost in 2019 and there hasen´t been un update in months.

Anyone have any info or are you all just as in the dark as I am?