Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 151. (Read 647176 times)

Another cryptic blog post by Marty

what EXACTLY does he mean by the greatest trade of the century

to go long NOW?

or to go long after an October crash ?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/

I cannot find his attempted call on stock peaks.  I recalled he tried to sneak in about 3 times.  But using search, I came up with his call on peak in bond markets:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/the-peak-in-government-a-low-in-interest-rates/

And that was NOT correct.  The peak of interest rate indicated by TLT US bonds, or European bonds was NOT on ANY ECM dates.  Peak for TLT was July 8th, 2016.  He never defined exactly what is "peak of confidence in government" for the ECM in 2015.75, but it's obvious to ANYONE that confidence in government should have been measured by the government bond prices, just like the above link, as he was trying to allude to it as well.  BUT he didn't get the peak of bond prices correct AT ALL, and everybody knows that this would have been the bubble to pop, as the bond bull market has gone on for some 30 years.

Notice his wording in his post that allows him to claim credit, in case he is correct.

bikefront, I kept repeating this.  You MUST "measure" his prediction success SYSTEMATICALLY.
Of course, he "ALLOWS" possibilities, so that he can get everything correct.  What about all the long term forecasts that he claims he can make, and that he claimed he made.
Anyone predicts like he does can get everything correct.  If it's not correct, just say that the alternative scenario has been elected.  But who will be stuck with the trading losses?

Kiwibird, I posted how ECM length canNOT be 8.6 years, because that is simply NOT the right number, according to Armstrong HIMSELF (he posted different dates for 2015.75).  You can scroll back and look at what I posted.  8.6 is a MYTH.  If it's a science, then it is repeatable.  It cannot be 8.615 now, and 8.600 later, and 8.61513, and then 8.59.  According to Armstrong, ECM is accurate to the day.  So 8.6 MUST be accurate within 0.3%.  But it's not.  In fact, it's just whatever closest number that will make the math & dates correct.

Ah, thanks for the answer Kiwi. Because its a monthly timeframe, it might be 3 months?

Marty also said the Dax had a bearish monthly at 11868 which we elected now, he says there is a massive gap now till 10400. I just wonder what he means by gap, will it drop to the next level in only 1 time frame, so it should get there by December?

Agree. Honestly, I don't even try to interpret the arrays myself anymore. I only go by what Armstrong says, but when he says something I don't fully get, I just leave it alone and do my own thing. When his analysis and my own match, I go for the trade. His trend analysis is really good, and the Reversals are simple to understand and much easier to follow, so I tend to gravitate towards those.

1258 in gold looks like a good place to short when it gets there, and then cover at around 1238. Might get that in November. Actually, 1214 today in gold was a good entry long point I'd say, and we should get 1238 soon for the exit.

That's what I thought but trending composite doesn't necessarily mean an uninterupted trend. Only that turning points are supposed to be opposites. I wouldn't use Comp2 and stuff, it just means anything can be interpreted any way and that doesn't mean anything. I did expect a lower close based on the next direction change and/or  previous turning point bu who knows. A new post states that the what if bullish reversal is 25588 for this month end closing. So far it looks like nothing is going to be elected

New post tonight:

We can see what happened after we elected the Weekly Bearish Reversals. Nevertheless, we have a Directional Change due tomorrow so do not expect a tremendous collapse. I find it interesting how the yearly level on the Global Market Watch which had been pointing to 2018 as a possible high, it has now flipped with this price action to new highs are still likely. Keep in mind that is a PURE pattern recognition model, separate and distinct from everything else.
We still see next week as the main target. The polls are showing that the Republicans will lose the House. That definitely has capital scared. The Democrats are just hostile right now and it does not matter if something is good or bad - they are simply out for revenge. That is what has capital really upset.
As we approach month-end closing, a simple close below the September low of 2575432 will be a technical bearish indication for on the Dow at least, that would be an outside reversal to the downside. The next monthly turning point will be December and of course we have the big convergence of four models coming in together for November.
The number to watch will be 23995 followed by 23340. These are the two important numbers to watch for month end closing. Keep in mind that electing both will point to a Panic to the downside will point to a test of the 21-22000 area. Keep in mind that at year-end, we need a closing above 24720.
So, nothing yet indicates anything serious just yet. A slingshot move would certainly come into play if we get a monthly close below 23995. However, a closing BELOW 22415 at the end of the month will also warn of a decline into November.
---
Also part of the post but taken from Socrates' automatically generated summary:

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Oct. 29, 2018: Dow Jones Industrials closing today of 2444292 immediately is trading down about 1.11% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 2412223 following the high established Tue. Oct. 16, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high intraday and closed below that same session low creating an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 3.66%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side closing beneath the previous session low and it remains below all center cyclical support models as well. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish below all our system indicators.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 2447812 settling at 2468831. The current crash mode support for this session was 2427363 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 2444292 implying the market is still rather vulnerable yet sustaining for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 2393385. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2518936 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Last day we did see an outside reversal to the downside, which is a warning that we have at least a pause in trend at this moment. If we penetrate that low of 2412223 and close below it this session, then we can see further downside ahead in price movement. Otherwise, holding that low intraday allows for a pause and consolidation briefly.

The low should form on the week of 11/05 either intraday or lowest closing basis unless there's a Reversal election implying further decline. This is a testable hypothesis.

Totally thrown off by Marty's recent update.  I like Marty and I have gotten plenty of value from his sharing of knowledge.  But today's update post about us possibly going into a crash is just nuts.  Why didn't he tell me we were going to crash in early October?  THAT was the time to go full short.   I appreciate traders and forecasters who take a stand and TELL ME what their high confidence market call is at the current time.  But so many of these traders and services are afraid to put their finger on the chopping block for fear of lawsuits and loss of credibility.  

But in my view, I like trading guidance services who take a strong confident stand on exactly where they think the market will move and if it will move big or not.

The double talk and hee-hawing is just too confusing.

Also, I have to get this off my chest.  I am tired of him constantly MIXING politics and what president Trump did or what the Democrats are doing within his trading language and forecasts.   Either be a technical trader or not, but don't mix and mash, this is one of the worst offenses of the trading discipline.



I will actually respect a market forecaster a lot more who makes an aggressive call and is wrong, than one that is constantly double talking and taking both sides and all cautious and afraid to say what he really thinks the next big move is.

I re-read the post. The ideal low looks like in November but although the nasdaq did not elect its bearish reversal, it did still close under the 7197 number at only 7167 so it does seem like the nasdaq's low is not yet in place. We still have to wait until we can long this market. So not necessarily next week, but next 2 weeks, most likely during the week of 11/5

https://imgur.com/a/XjmXL This was the 'user guide' I was referring to. As you can see, some of the quotes are directly from Armstrong's page. Some of the forecast rows (like directional change) are highly varied, but the composite turning point model is not. The Reversals are also pretty clear cut; electing one means testing the next.

In this case, pay attention to the last sentence: 'signals a retest of support is likely'. As we know, Armstrong is frequently ambiguous BUT this one is much less so. He clearly chooses direction; the question is simply a matter of how much. Now, if one were to have shorted, they would have made money, but the amount would be the question. The turning points are also ambiguous- most of the time. I recently found out that he tends to only use 'strongest targets' as turning points- so for example, only the highest bars on the plot as opposing events instead of a trending composite which I had tried to do before. Like the 17th he mentioned, which was the high before the resumption of the decline. Yes, the 'bounce into Monday for 2 days' was ambiguous because I did not know if he was referring to Monday in the 2 days as well or not. But again, the intraday break of 2760 into 2720 was correct, as well as the 2795 intraday resistance which actually was the high of the day. And as said before, IF the market closes above or below certain numbers, then the market should rise/fall. Remember the 3 numbers? TRC's post on October the 19th:

Well so far it is starting to look like the spx cash will close UNDER 2767 today which. Ould set up a mini crash into the new moon on Friday October 24th .

TRC obviously is a sceptic as well and repeating that forecast was in jest in that manner because he did not think it would happen, but yes, it happened precisely like that.