Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 149. (Read 647176 times)

It used to be public. Not sure what happened.

Does anyone have the password for this video? I'd like to see it, thanks.

See at 2hrs 23mins - https://vimeo.com/198896912  which confirms what you have written above:

"the bars relate to price levels..the array has to match price level activity.."

The highest bars reflect the most amount of cycles hitting at that moment in time.
It's not just the top composite bar that highlights price activity by the highest bars, it's also high bars shown the other levels such as Empirical etc..

Breakeven actually still learning a lot of things, but getting better I hope. It's not easy

Breakeven actually still learning a lot of things, but getting better I hope. It's not easy

Nope. I think the low's been seen already for the month, for the Dow at least. December is a turning point for some, but we'll see what he says. I use his general trend thesis stuff, but I don't rely on him.

Nope. I think the low's been seen already for the month, for the Dow at least. December is a turning point for some, but we'll see what he says. I use his general trend thesis stuff, but I don't rely on him.

Made a few trades and lost almost on everything. Shorted the real estate high which made up for all the losers, plus a decent gain. Came close to shorting the CMG high but decided not to open the trade Cut losers, run winners, is how you win the game. Set alerts where the highs/lows should be, then open the trade where the algos trigger stops- that is, where your stop would be is actually the entry because that is cases is where they overextend into a reversal. Although it doesn't have to be. Armstrong's stuff isn't bad I think, but if one doesn't see the trade, there's no need to go after it. Supply and demand trading is where it's at, seriously. The 2016 consolidation highs of MMM can be drawn on the chart straight across. That was the recent volatility's low where I had set an alert. Some stocks will have an incredibly obvious bounce point, and MMM was one of them. During volatility, I try trading those super obvious and untested major spots. If it hasn't been tested, it shouldn't simply break through on its first try, it should have a bounce. Managed to catch the bottom. Sold it too quick, but you get the main point though. If XLU gets to 56.22, that should be a good short area and go down to about 55.3, for example. Google should bounce at slightly over 900. My trading style is different so I only go after the Armstrong ones when I understand the technicals involved on my own charts.

Any crash signals from Armstrong yet ?  market looks like it is about to lose support...

Hmm. I haven't been checking Socrates much these days. The changing turning points doesn't seem very useful. I've been moving away from those and going for Reversals more frequently. Still a few hours till market open, but looks like a gap up against me

Sid, as I stated, the sample size for the number of trades was low. But at the same time, that doesn't mean it was luck. Only that it was not possible to derive a conclusion from said sample size. As stated, the trade would have been profitable had I used normal weekly instead of 0 day expiries.

TRC, as the other guy said, it's just a what if scenario. He comments on those, but he specifically said there is no indication of that. No Monthly Bearish Reversal has ever been elected so far in all this year's volatility.

Beast, as Armstrong says, just follow the numbers. You don't need ANYTHING else. If a Reversal is elected, it should test the next one. He adds commentary and such but that does not mean the commentary is a trade signal. When prices close above or below the point is he gives, that is the trade signal. I already mentioned, multiple times, how Armstrong clearly called this October crash near the end of September and the closes required to enter the trade. Reversals are black and white. There is no ambiguity involved. Arrays are different but you don't need them and Armstrong is hit or miss with those anyway. Follow the numbers and you make money. I really dont get what is so hard about that particular. Reversals can be measured objectively. I already posted the max P/L  structure of what would happen if one followed his call this October.

MA, I did actually use a small account with real money to trade using purely Armstrong's predictions. I made a gain of 600% in 2 days before blowing up on a gap that went the wrong way on 0 day SPX options. Each trade was all in. It was excessively stupid, but an interesting experiment nonetheless. Of couse, it would be difficult to ascern validity with such a small amount of time and virtually no risk management. Had I used normal weekly options, I would have ended up with a gain. My own trading style is quite different, and I do not use the indexes.

Just some points I found re using the ECM dates..

http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com

"..The primary mistake many make with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is assuming it should be a perfect model for the stock market, gold, or some other market. It is a global model and does not track any individual market. It is tracking the phenomenon of international capital flows. There is a shift back and forth between PUBLIC and PRIVATE investment trends.

Capital concentrates into a single region and then into a single market. There is a cycle to this as well from within a region such as the hot market will be real estate, bonds, stocks, commodities, and then back to real estate. What makes a bubble is this concentration of capital. However, every market retains its own cycle and it is when that cycle lines up with the ECM that we get the big booms and busts.

The key to understanding the ECM is this global capital concentration.

ts proper use of the ECM is to understand that it is NOT a model based upon a single market and it should not be attempted to force fit this model to any individual market. The key is to watch the individual market that is lining up with the ECM and that is where the most intense capital flow will be moving.

So it is by no means geared to a single market nor should it be presumed to be a perfect model for an individual market. Each market has its own cycle. These are what we show in the Forecast Arrays which are not based on the ECM. It is the correlation of the individual market cycles to the ECM that we discovery where capital will flow to next.

By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. As you can see, all the things that turn with the ECM over years is based upon capital concentration. It is inherent within the economic structure that we live..."

So in relation to the ECM date 2015.75...he's said before it ferments the peak in Government (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/) "..This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. Each 8.6 year wave produces a bubble, yet in a different sector. It is never the same thing twice...."  And he wrote this months before that actual ECM date. 
He didn't say that date would be a crash of some sort, just the 'start' of the Big Bang.  But sometimes the actual date does relate to a high/low in a particular market as in 87. 
Ever since 2015.75 interest rates have started to increase.  The worm has turned with the ECM date related to that market.

Yeah, I was referring to the September 24th post. But also note the other one's week of 10/1 turning point call, which was the high. Again though, it's hit or miss.

Yeah I'll post the Reversal signals when they come. They don't happen often but only a few trades are needed anyway.

No, I don't have the trader version. I know of someone who claims to have the trader beta version from a WEC but I didn't see it.