Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 148. (Read 647054 times)

This page was archived many times.  Here is from 2015:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150201231727/http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

Please note that according to Armstrong HIMSELF, the ECM date was 10/7/2015, NOT 10/1/2015 as he later claimed after his release, and he most likely forgot his own dates.

Also, note that all the dates in that link are spaced out by exactly the same number of days (3140 days as I recalled).  They were not adjusted by any leap year.  And that was a DIFFERENT methodology.  He later said that he expressed dates in terms of fractional year (the link is in one of my older posts in this thread).  His "new" methodology is problematic, as I have disputed in this thread, because it will give you exactly the same dates in 5 cycles of 8.6 ECM.  His "old" methodology didn't have this problem using equal number of days, but has problem with leap years through centuries, which I attempted to adjust, and would have given 10/4/2015 instead.

Again, I'm pretty sure Armstrong is totally oblivious about these differences between 10/7/2015 vs 10/1/2015, because he doesn't care at all.

But of course, he continues to claim that his ECM model is accurate down to the very day, when in fact, he is contradicting himself all over the place.

That particular content at contrahour.com appears at more than one websites.  It was one of the more prominent content sought after Armstrong went into jail in 2000.  And at ALL websites that I've seen, the last ECM date was ALWAYS 10/7/2015.

But Armstrong himself said on his own website that it's 10/1/2015.

For obvious reasons, 10/1 is NOT 10/7.  Either the old Armstrong was wrong, or the new Armstrong was wrong.  Cannot be both right.  The problem with his new methodology is that it will ALWAYS be 10/1, after 5 cycles of ECM, because 8.6*5 = 43 years exactly, and using his new methodology, you will get 10/1 date again, and again, and again.

Page is no longer working.

I agree, the btc price looks to move lower from here. I have a few targets and scenarios. We all need to be ready for different outcomes!

The computer provides a lot more info (turning points and other numbers) , but monthly critical support is a very important , long term buy or sell signal.
Actually I've checked again for monthly critical support and it has moved even much lower, in the 1000 area. A  monthly sell signal was generated recently.
The yearly number now comes into play at year end and lies below 3000. That will also be very relevant for the long term trend. It doesn't look good for Bitcoin looking at the foreseeable future.

So MA provides no other info other than it is a critical support?

Bitcoin is approaching the critical , monthly number  (from Socrates)  that is on the table since Jan 18.
Will it bounce off that number or break through? I'm curious to see what is happening in the next 1-2 month.

Can someone more familiar with Armstrong's stuffs explain this from his website to me?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays/


Armstrong is only saying that the peak in his composite row can be either a high or low.  But either way, it will indicate a turning point.

But you CAN find out whether it should be a high or low by just looking at ANY forecast array that had some given history already.  Since he can continuously generate these arrays, at the beginning period of the array, where he had ALL past history up to the current point, he should be able to figure out whether going up is up/down, and going down is down/up, by simply generating the arrays for slightly over-lapped timeframe.

Why would ANYBODY generate some charts, and NOT correcting the polarity of the chart, when he can easily do that?

My personal guess is that the forecast from the composite array has always been garbage, and he just picks out and show the ones that randomly happen to hit the mark, when in fact, no one is checking continuously for its accuracy for any time frame.  The "clarification" on low as high, and high as low, is to simply mask out any forecast failures of the arrays.

If the forecast from his composite row is correct, the easiest way to generate automatic immense profits is to simply buy volatility (buy both call & put) at the TURNING POINT.  I bet Armstrong himself is not doing that either for a good reason.

Elected both 25652 and 25692 and straight away the dow collapses 2.3% lol!  Lets see if it turns around, since it elected the reversal we should see the next high within 2-3 days according to the reversals guide.

it still is and actually the biggest fail of all time was when roach sold all his bitcoin at $600 for gold at $1400 and lost money. Im way way way up and not worried about short term moves to shake dumb money out the likes of you.

So much for the 1% rule on the DAX. 

Yes, I kind of remember that call from Armstrong.  He kept saying that "the fat lady has not sung yet"....

And because of his call, I sold almost all of my mining stocks into his call, and lost over $50K from that trade, before I realized that Armstrong is probably the best con-artist out there.

In my observation of Armstrong, he is waiting to see the trend first, so that he won't make a fool out of himself.  What he does best is "curve-fitting", or closely track the market in "real-time", except that it's in rear mirror, which means that since events happen in the past, there is absolutely no way for you or anyone to make a profit out of any calls.

-- Latest public post from Armstrong ----
There are so many things happening in the political world it is next to impossible to figure out what is going to be the focal point for the Pi target since perhaps it could be a combination. The lastest hat being thrown into the ring is the European Commission is planning to enter their sanctions against Italy. As it stands currently, they have proposed disciplining Italy under EU fiscal rules on November 21st, 2018, unless the country’s government agrees to change its draft budget plan according to EU dictates. This could set in motion a drop in Italian debt which may force the ECB to buy more Italian debt or stand back and watch rates go crazy. This may also be the starting point of sending Italy into an exit position from the EU. In the weeks and months from now, we will be able to see that this was the turning point if this takes place.
----------------

WHY is it impossible when he claimed that he can just ASK his Socrates for what's behind the capital movement that it sees all & track?

Why not just ask Socrates?  Well, most likely, his AI is not AI at all.

Look at ALL of the "could" statements.  Just throw as many darts, and if one of them hit, or hit closely, then he is the forecaster again.  If such predictions are from Socrates or any computer program, the software will almost certainly give you a measurement of probabilities.

Not Socrates ever.

The other thing is, Armstrong is saying that GS goldman sachs could bet setting up for a waterfall crash?  how can you say that and not expect the broad market to plunge in similar fashion, the financials lead the market

Biggest failed calls of the year:

1)  When gold was $1050 and Martin Armstrong said it was going to "drop below $800 into the abyss", meaning he told everyone to sell the exact bottom in gold to the dollar.

2)  When bitcoin was $20,000 and Sidhujag said it was going to $100,000

Wonderful !! the stock market is about to CRASH and Armstrong stops posting his private blog updates .....

Anyone know if someone blogs about attending the WEC?

Thank you so much!!

PM for Mirror link to Vimeo Video. Removed since nobody else is sharing

What I understood from the WEC presentation and the guide is that they array are not price level but based off cycles extracted from the price levels.
He extracts the different (72+) cycles from distances between the peaks and troughs and the amplitude of the price. These cycles just have their frequencies and amplitudes and move through the market each in their own way, like cycles pas through water to create waves, the water molecules just go up and down but the wave pases through them, he says this is the same in the market.
So what the array does is add cycles together which then create constructive or destructive interference, so they build on each other or cancel each other out. The higher the peak in the array the more of these cycles will peak or trough on that time period. Thats why a high in the array can mean a low in price.

Thats what I have understood from what I have read and it lines up about what he talks about when discussing cycles not related to the market. So countries, populations, civilisations etc are all just cycles passing through the medium (us) which then creates the rise and fall of peaks and troughs of the ECM model turning points.

Doesen´t get more esoteric then this, but this is what I think the gist of his work is.

This is what's explained on his website:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays/

He said most important thing is the TURNING POINT, and everyone here kind of agrees that his Turning Points just do NOT work (maybe doesn't work 75% of the time??).

If you look at ANY of his array plot, he has the top FOUR rows, all seemingly to indicate price levels, and they never agree with each other.
These are Composite, Comp-ff, Empirical, Long-term.

The single most important realization over the years that I had with Armstrong's stuffs is what he does NOT say, instead of what he actually says.

If you ask ANY trader or investor about any market, the two most important indicators are PRICE and VOLUME.  Armstrong has 4 TOP rows, and all the entire forecast arrays, and the entire array is telling NOTHING about PRICE and VOLUME?

And he calls that "forecast" array.

And he NEVER tells you to actually BUY or SELL beforehand.  WHY?  Such a great forecaster as he claimed to be should have been able to make great calls on a daily, if not on a weekly basis.  He simply needs to sprinkle a few great calls once in a while for his public readers to prove his worth.

WHY??  Think about why he does NOT say certain things.

Even when the turning point or directional change is spot on, it doesn't help your pocket.  An actual magnitude MUST be predicted along with the direction.  It doesn't help much if you bet 1 million on a correct directional move, when the price only changes by 0.01%, nor will it help much if you bet $1000 on a correct directional move, when the price changes by 50%.

If he ever posts actual trades, then such ambiguity will not be there at all.  But he does NOT do that.  Why?  When so many other newsletters are doing it, and he is a great forecaster, and he does NOT need to do it, because he is always right??