Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 216. (Read 647062 times)

Armstrong says you need a supercomputer to do it for you. And to keep your subjectivity out of it. Of course we can all be skeptical of Armstrong because his software and data is not open sourced. It is okay for me if we are skeptical. What I don't like is when others try to misrepresent his record (especially they weren't even subscribers and they try to piecemeal together a misunderstanding from some disjointed blog posts). I personally have benefited greatly in my understanding by learning from Armstrong. I don't just believe everything he says. I think about if it makes sense.

Btw guys, here is more on my logic of why TPTB can't shut down a popular activity.

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My turn to grab the wheel again.   


Armstrong has two pieces on why Europe is in deep doo-doo.  First, it looks like Marine Le Pen is indeed in first place there in France (there will surely be a run-off election after the first round).  I have read that the MSM is going to be wrong again, that she will wind up as France's next leader.  Also see great (?) photo of refugee in Italy washing himself at a public fountain (same Armstrong post):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/le-pen-soars-in-french-polls-to-top/


Armstrong shows his free trade cred in this piece about Portugal and Europe, a nice & dense little piece:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/eu-bailout-of-portugal-has-failed/

Then the same can be applied to astro cycles and hand reading.. there are patterns there aswell.. actually i follow a financial astrologist and he does make accurate medium term predictions i have been following him for a few yrs perhaps it gives him an edge.. but not everything you conclude from data extrapolating into future will be right.. that is not possible.. perhaps a minority of predictions come true enough such that if you are a betting man and use some sensible MM you would be +ve that much i will give you.. some higher order can help look at details.. but by hanging by his every word is just wrong

But those that have done it for over 20 yrs have an edge through information. Again what im saying is that a random walk would be just as efficient. In general even if someone has information which gives 1 percent edge to give you 51 percent chance of.winning after spread it is enough to make a living. Those that can conquer their inner selves are doing so.. those with more inside information about positions are making more money. Those without any information dont make it in the long run when spread catches up to them

Sidjuhag, with the stuff you're saying you're essentially citing efficient market hypothesis, which is a total crock of shit that says the equivalent of - it's not possible for anyone to make a living in stocks because it's all like a coin flip.  There's plenty of people to contradict that view and they all weren't from sheer luck or insider information.

Don't conflate repeating cycles (e.g. the Sun rising every morning) with the diversity in the details (which bug is saluting the sun each morning on which blade of grass).

Armstrong's methods are valid because he isn't trying to predict the details. He has identified the order in chaos due to for example the frequency of our lifespans and our age of maturity.

Agree mostly and id like to add that people thinking theres order within chaos are likely to go insane looking for repeating patterns in the future. The stock market is chaos and not predictable.. the only ones that win long term are ones with an edge with inside information. Without inside info a random walk will result in as much or greator profit because of dismiss expectancy of trades and fall into habits of trading with fear and greed. The same can be applied to anything organic including companies and even entire cities.

Click here to read why (I think) @r0ach is incorrect and @sidhujag is correct.

I dont think so.. they  will try for sure but free market always wins.. ideal money will come out on top every single time.

The proving you are who you are will be an optin service which works with kyc type of regulated businesses for the foreseeable future. I dont see how peoplr will work without kyc even with a feedback system.. witness signatures on transactions will be crucial.

I don't see that happening.  I think they will use the legal system to unload a ton of draconian legislation and in the future, the only cryptocurrency transactions will be to and from fixed address aliases where the sender and receiver are known.  They will just make that the law and force the ecosystem to adapt to it and everyone will because they don't want the value of their coins going down.  It's ironic that govt imposing all these laws is actually beneficial to price because it symbolizes endorsement and that you should use it.

Implausible when we will have anonymity on microtransactions. My conjecture is the governments can't afford to spend $1000s tracking down every $0.0001 transaction.

Although we will never have absolute iron-clad anonymity, since most people won't be doing anything illegal (e.g. sending an automated $0.0001 microtransaction when they click read a blog or listen to some music) and the coming Internet I am going to create will run on microtransactions, the governments won't be able to outlaw microtransactions. Will simply be too essential to the economy and popular to outlaw.

And privacy is important to everyone. Who wants the government snooping in your legal private affairs. We know that TSA agents were caught masturbating to the naked images from their airport body scanners.

Keep in mind that while I am NOT a programmer, I continue to have my doubts re BTC (and its critical on- and off-ramps) can survive a determined attack by .gov, especially should they all act in concert (likely sooner or later).  The "Big Rhino" (US government) employs smart and determined people too.  Many of these .gov employees RESENT the freedoms that we still have in cyberspace.  It will likely get harder and harder to maintain privacy & financial freedom...

If it becomes sufficiently burdensome for "the masses" (I am one of them) to buy and spend BTC or other cryptos (got to have that gold delivered somewhere), that would never mean mass adoption.

And that, dear readers, is why I stay diversified.  You never know.

Any non-fungible cryptocurrency with white and black lists is a permissioned ledger by default.  As I said before, the govt is going to create an alias system wrapper that goes around bitcoin and force everyone to use it by law or be considered a criminal launderer.  They will then eventually do the old switcharoo and divorce the alias system tokens away from representing bitcoin into being IMF coin or something.  It's far more likely the govt co-opts bitcoin and turns it into the cashless society slave system rather than it acting as an "on-ramp" to freedom.

It's plain as day to see what's going to happen with laws like this coming out in Japan:

"Only approved virtual currencies by the authority are considered legitimate and can be traded, sold or promoted to public"

This means govt is the legal arbitrator of forks.  The US, UK, and EU will hold a meeting and all collude saying only the fork with chain anchor or worse is the real bitcoin!  Since they can easily control the exchanges and mining pools, people will be forced to use that fork or have their coins become worthless.  The only reason bitcoin isn't illegal is because they know how easy it is to co-opt and morph it into their cashless society control grid.

Perhaps you missed one of my critically important posts lately explaining why gold is centralized but crypto-currency is not:


Bitcoin can't be regulated without a total order of government in the world. And that isn't coming in the next year. By the time TPTB get their NWO one-world government system cooperation in place, Bitcoin will have already served its role as the onramp to unregulated decentralization technology innovation.

China and others make a lot of noise about regulation, but as you see they all end up caving in and realizing they can't regulate private keys. Even if China monopolizes the mining, they can't blacklist private keys without destroying Bitcoin and forcing a new altcoin to rise to take its place. Bitcoin is far too small (compared the $trillions flow of FX capital flow in China) for China to attempt such a scorched earth policy on mining at this time (and they would likely fail just causing the rest of the world to blacklist China's mining pools or a fork changing the hash causing all China's mining farm investments to become useless overnight).

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That is hand waving. The only way to stop someone who has his own wallet is to blacklist on the blockchain. Now that person can go online and state that his transaction has not be added by any miner after such a long period of time. The community will investigate. The only way to snuff out this exchange of information is to have a total order of totalitarian control on the Internet.

Sorry your fears are unfounded. If ever it happens, then we are already in 1984 and we're all doomed.

You seem to have a doomsday attitude, so I don't think you are likely to be in touch with the reality of what will transpire:


Btw, I have refuted the Singularity in the past. It will never happen.

I don't want to debate it again right now, which is why I didn't respond to the above comment in that thread.

Just put it this way, total orders have never existed in our universe. So the probability of total doomsday is 0.

For machines to become more important than humans from an evolutionary standpoint (which is all that matters actually in terms of species extinction), then they must become alive and that means they must have a bell curve of attributes and have failure. Because without failure, there isn't existence of life (the past and future will collapse into undifferentiated without friction and imperfection).

Infinite entropy can't exist. Kurzweil is a smart idiot.

I had always found the numbers oddly arbitrary, aside from using Pi. Have you checked how events line up?

I believe it went live T0 is the platform

Is this what Overstock was working towards?

When Armstrong says take delivery, does he mean own Registered shares or take physical delivery of a piece of paper? Because the later doesn't really seem to be available to average joes.
What are the implications for etfs? Sell and buy individual stocks? Till when? Can I at least wait until the 2018 dow top?

You are classified as a different trader if you notify futures exchange your intent is to take delivery.. its kind of stupid

When those certs are settled onchain it will make it alot easier to be fraudproof. Infact its something im looking into... being legally able to sell shares of stock through digital certificates on the blockchain.

On MA recent blog post https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/why-you-should-take-delivery/

I am using Interactive Brokers who hold securities in street name and do not take stock delivery as far as I am aware, Should clients be
concerned about this?