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Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 215. (Read 647061 times)

legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
March 02, 2017, 12:00:24 AM
Bitcoin is a settlement system not a transaction processor.. systems can build processors ontop but the core remains settlement. Gold does not come anywhere close to the utility bitcoin provides.. its apples and oranges. Gold has history behind it and that is all.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
March 01, 2017, 08:29:56 PM
As btc nears gold parity the gold bugs have come out against btc hard.

The so called "gold bugs" have been right all along, just none of those guys know enough about bitcoin to articulate why.  The fact is, bitcoin does NOT function as a store of value, period.  The way bitcoin is designed pigeonholes it into acting as a settlement layer, and what is the #1 attribute needed for being a settlement layer?  ...being a store of value.  This makes it kind of inherently designed to fail at what it's supposed to do because bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, it has to compete against the noble metals.  The noble metals are orders of magnitude better in anti-fragility, store of value, and even decentralization than bitcoin is.

As I said before:

A settlement layer has to compete with or beat gold as a store of value.  Bitcoin cannot accomplish that task so it has to do something else besides being a settlement layer or there is no point!

This means bitcoin's value has to be floated by raw transaction flow instead of people hoarding it for no reason as a store of value.  It is my estimate that you would need something like 5000 TPS in order for bitcoin to function as a raw transaction handler instead of a store of value.  And the following post explains why bitcoin isn't a store of value in the first place:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-vol-7-bitcoin-is-not-an-actual-store-of-value-because-there-is-no-real-price-floor-or-inelastic-demand

I actually agree that you need very high adoption and TPS to achieve any lasting system with crypto. What do you think I am working on!
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
March 01, 2017, 07:58:32 PM
Pretty damn cool silver invention:

https://twitter.com/FineBullion/status/836234523339677696

As a type of dry solder with no heat or electricity required, seems like it would have large use case in home 3d printing areas.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
March 01, 2017, 07:23:22 PM
As btc nears gold parity the gold bugs have come out against btc hard.

The so called "gold bugs" have been right all along, just none of those guys know enough about bitcoin to articulate why.  The fact is, bitcoin does NOT function as a store of value, period.  The way bitcoin is designed pigeonholes it into acting as a settlement layer, and what is the #1 attribute needed for being a settlement layer?  ...being a store of value.  This makes it kind of inherently designed to fail at what it's supposed to do because bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, it has to compete against the noble metals.  The noble metals are orders of magnitude better in anti-fragility, store of value, and even decentralization than bitcoin is.

As I said before:

A settlement layer has to compete with or beat gold as a store of value.  Bitcoin cannot accomplish that task so it has to do something else besides being a settlement layer or there is no point!

This means bitcoin's value has to be floated by raw transaction flow instead of people hoarding it for no reason as a store of value.  It is my estimate that you would need something like 5000 TPS in order for bitcoin to function as a raw transaction handler instead of a store of value.  And the following post explains why bitcoin isn't a store of value in the first place:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-vol-7-bitcoin-is-not-an-actual-store-of-value-because-there-is-no-real-price-floor-or-inelastic-demand
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
March 01, 2017, 12:46:30 PM
Again for those who don't know what time it is and prefer it graphically conveyed, we are in the tail-end of the 309.6 cycle of the cyclical Fall of Society.

On the chart below, 485 AD was the fall of the Western Roman Empire (when only the Byzantine portion remained) and 1105 AD was the fall of the Eastern (Byzantine) Roman Empire:


sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
March 01, 2017, 12:29:35 PM
FYI:

Bitcoin's daily volume is only $0.2 billion compared to $6000 billion for the SWIFT transfer system, i.e. 1/30,000th.
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
March 01, 2017, 05:36:21 AM
OROBTC

I also have gold for same reason. And read up on economics etc before hearing of bitcoin. If Rickards & Zerohedge had been objective on bitcoin back then, I'd be retired Smiley It took The Keiser Report to explain it in a way I understood and show that it wasn't just drugs & KP.

Reading up on MA, he was the first I saw write about the pension crisis.

ZH just wrote this

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-28/ny-teamsters-pension-becomes-first-run-out-money-expert-warns-pension-tsunami-coming

Unintended consequences of ZIRP & socializing bank losses while every saver suffers via no returns or austerity.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
March 01, 2017, 12:54:40 AM
...

tabnloz

A very nice comment.  I do not bet against the likely continued march of science & technology going forward.  Is it possible that technology could deliver us into a "1984"?  Sure it's possible, but not probably (IMO).

I love gold as a diversification investment (so many gold haterz out there, why that makes it a contrarian investment).

But, when you look, really look, at what iamnotback has been writing for a long time, you see that most of your chips should be placed on a good eventual outcome, or at least have some of your bets on winning technology.

I look forward very much to seeing if his alt works out.

*  *  *

Armstrong had a NICE piece explaining SWIFT, the Chinese attempt at undermining it via their CIPS and pushing their Yuan as the alternative to the US$.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/china/china-cips-v-western-swift-system/

It is an absurd attempt by China.

When we buy Chinese bearings, we use DOLLAR$!  China is going to lose this battle, and if they keep fighting stupidly (more so than the USA?), then they will lose their way, period.
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
February 28, 2017, 09:43:14 PM
As btc nears gold parity the gold bugs have come out against btc hard. Seems to happen

First Rickards trolled bitcoiners on twitter:

"Soon I'll be able to pay $1,250 in paper for (1) a solid ounce of fine gold, or (2) some electrons called "bitcoin." Hmm, tough choice. #Not"


Then Peter Schiff debated Brian Kelly (NautilusCoin) on CNBC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rdz2DWrHW8&feature=youtu.be


Then Roy Sebag (GoldMoney) calls out some prominent bitcoiners on Twitter to debate Gold v Bitcoin

Dear @barrysilbert or @aantonop or @ErikVoorhees - You three strike as most impressive pro-bitcoin speakers. I have a debate proposal:
I will offer $25k to a charity of your choice if any of you debate me in an open forum. I will for Gold, you for Bitcoin. NYC Location


This comes across to me as gold proponents defending their turf. Rickards and Schiff haven't changed their arguments since 2013, although Rickards is at least accepting of bitcoin as a form of currency. Schiff is just stuck with the 'merchants convert it to USD'. But what they all do is refer back to classical economic 'characteristics' as reasons why bitcoin cannot be X or Y or Z. When they shake their heads or disparage bitcoin they risk being like the economists they themselves argue with and label as having 'cognitive dissonance'.

Bitcoin is software that enables something new, solves age old problems and offers a degree of freedom formerly not available in the computer age. It may fail. But, in a connected, insecure world it has tremendous utility. Being able to send data and have an immutable record of it without a third party is especially valuable. When the access to that immutable ledger is capped, as long as demand grows, the value of that access should grow.

Will gold ever have a place as a monetary backstop? I wouldn't rule it out, kind of like a 'reversion to the mean'; perhaps if things get bad enough (but not MadMax bad) we will revert to some form of Gold Standard (perhaps a reason why CB's have been net buyers for years). I think gold / btc are complimentary and provide a bridge between generations; most boomers won't understand btc and most millenials don't give a shit about gold. But they do offer some similarities (hedge v govt) while having appeal to their specific generation - ie, millenials are internet natives.

But whether gold proponents like it or not is irrelevant as long as btc keeps working and 'the geeks that inherit the earth' continue to create solutions that destroy old paradigms.

I reminded of the quote

“Every fact of science was once damned. Every invention was considered impossible. Every discovery was a nervous shock to some orthodoxy. Every artistic innovation was denounced as fraud and folly. The entire web of culture and ‘progress,’ everything on earth that is man-made and not given to us by nature, is the concrete manifestation of some man’s refusal to bow to Authority. We would own no more, know no more, and be no more than the first apelike hominids if it were not for the rebellious, the recalcitrant, and the intransigent. As Oscar Wilde truly said, ‘Disobedience was man’s Original Virtue.”

Robert Anton Wilson








legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
February 28, 2017, 12:53:44 PM
Anonymint, you were talking about seigniorage in another thread.  It costs the govt something like 11 cents to make a $100 bill (positive seigniorage) and 8 cents to make a nickel (negative seigniorage), so technically anyone opting out of nickels and into bills in the free market is an idiot.  Yet even with this opportunity to participate in negative seigniorage, nobody does it...except Kyle Bass.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
February 27, 2017, 10:19:12 PM
...

Armstrong writes that it is a mistake to store gold (and CA$H) in a bank safety deposit box:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/is-it-safe-to-store-gold-in-a-safe-deposit-box/

* * *

He states his views here on the relatively LOW value of college degrees:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/education/ernst-young-no-longer-requires-degrees-no-evidence-a-degree-success/

OK, some of that I buy, but why would any business needing competent accountants hire E+Y guys with no proven abilities?  The rest of his piece is good though.

Actually, my limited understanding of iamnotback's Knowledge Age would seem to fit Armstrong's views here.
legendary
Activity: 3486
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
February 27, 2017, 02:10:27 PM
I have no info on that, but it looks like a great development if true.  A major world economic player like Japan fully legalizing BTC is a wonderful step.

A step to do what?!

Bitcoin fees were $0.41 to get in next block yesterday.  I think growth will start to hit a brick wall when that value reaches $1 to $2.  Everything is riding on so far non-existent scaling and the wheels can come off this thing pretty fast if it never happens.  You could even have some buffoons from Ethereum or R3 put skin in the game to block 5% of mining hash power from activating any scaling in bitcoin in order to direct customers to whatever janky system Vitalik or they release for their premine tokens

While I certainly don't completely write off this scenario (let's call it worse case scenario), Bitcoin can still be scaled up even despite miners (or their accomplices) blocking any updates that would fix the current issues directly. I refer to off-chain transactions that are already possible today. And not just possible but already in active use. For example, if fees continue to skyrocket, more folks will start using web wallets, and the latter (at least, major ones) can agree between themselves to move funds (basically, settle accounts at the end of the day) totally bypassing the blockchain itself (and evil miners). Right now, people can effortlessly transfer money within the same wallet, so it is just a question of time (and fees rising) when something like that will be implemented for the interwallet transfers as well

Necessity is the mother of invention
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
February 27, 2017, 09:19:41 AM
Anyone who day trade on the stock market and buy subscription from Armstrong - I do both - understand that Armstrong is pretty much useless for traders. His political and historical views are entertaining, his view could provide some contextual information. Thus, the subscription worth the little money what he charges, but from a day trader viewpoint he is useless. He couldn't even get right the recent Trump rally where even an idiot could make infinite money by moving the stop losses up. Never mind stock trading which is a difficult one, but Armstrong was wrong about everything like Brexit and Trump. Still, a smart fellow on some subjects like history and perhaps on understanding the nature and implications of sovereign debt crisis.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
February 27, 2017, 06:00:52 AM
OROBTC et al, I don't worry too much about Bitcoin. I have a project coming asap to rectify the problems with crypto. Btw, I have decided not to do an ICO.



Last, who gives a f*ck!?

Obama is gone.

Incorrect:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/obama-setting-up-shadow-government-civil-unrest-will-lead-to-civil-war/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/obama-is-the-source-of-the-coup/

More:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/the-road-ahead/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/the-collapse-of-socialismmarxism/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/democrats-in-civil-war-against-obamas-ofa/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-continued-uprising-that-will-destroy-the-usa/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/entertainment-industry-is-leading-charge-to-civil-war/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/comments-from-san-francisco/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-united-states-will-become-just-the-states/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-new-american-coup-media-leading-charge-to-topple-government/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/americas-economic-history/california-files-petition-to-secede-from-usa-calexit/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/a-sign-of-the-times/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/trump-supporter-surrounded-by-womens-march/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-democrats-anti-religion-position/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/so-whats-all-the-protests-against-trump/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-real-story-at-new-hampshire-college/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/how-professors-are-engaging-in-undermining-the-country-in-collages/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/hatred-of-the-left-continues-to-set-stage-for-revolution/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/why-the-left-government-are-the-greatest-threats-to-the-domestic-life/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/hillary-tells-supporters-to-effectively-revolt-against-trump/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/have-the-democrats-unleashed-a-new-age-communist-revolution/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/the-color-purple-not-the-movie-but-a-movement/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-new-american-communist-revolution/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/george-soros-the-man-trying-to-create-a-socialist-revolution/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/american-civil-unrest-keying-to-election/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-cycle-of-civil-unrest-martial-law/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/children-and-propagana/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/here-is-the-wikileaks-index-to-files/
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
February 26, 2017, 10:03:19 PM
I have no info on that, but it looks like a great development if true.  A major world economic player like Japan fully legalizing BTC is a wonderful step.

A step to do what?!

Bitcoin fees were $0.41 to get in next block yesterday.  I think growth will start to hit a brick wall when that value reaches $1 to $2.  Everything is riding on so far non-existent scaling and the wheels can come off this thing pretty fast if it never happens.  You could even have some buffoons from Ethereum or R3 put skin in the game to block 5% of mining hash power from activating any scaling in bitcoin in order to direct customers to whatever janky system Vitalik or they release for their premine tokens.


High Bitcoin fees are a big problem.  The Bitcoin Promise was for reasonably fast, reasonably anonymous (yes I know, not anonymous, but somewhat so) electronic money.

High fees and long confirmation times are serious issues that dismay many, and I do not think that they are taken seriously enough by those who matter (mining pools and lead developers).  High fees and long confirmations just add to the misery that newbies would have trying to learn the system (I was a newbie who *pretty much* had to learn it on my own), this will likely stifle BTC growth if some of these three problems (high cost, slow network, too complex for the masses) are not resolved.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
February 26, 2017, 04:40:22 PM
I have no info on that, but it looks like a great development if true.  A major world economic player like Japan fully legalizing BTC is a wonderful step.

A step to do what?!

Bitcoin fees were $0.41 to get in next block yesterday.  I think growth will start to hit a brick wall when that value reaches $1 to $2.  Everything is riding on so far non-existent scaling and the wheels can come off this thing pretty fast if it never happens.  You could even have some buffoons from Ethereum or R3 put skin in the game to block 5% of mining hash power from activating any scaling in bitcoin in order to direct customers to whatever janky system Vitalik or they release for their premine tokens.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1852
February 24, 2017, 10:57:11 PM
Anyone have any thoughts on Japan passing law that sees bitcoin as legal tender? Does this open up financial institutions to invest directly?


I have no info on that, but it looks like a great development if true.  A major world economic player like Japan fully legalizing BTC is a wonderful step.

But, as always, the devil may be in the details...

We'll keep an eye open on the matter.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
February 24, 2017, 10:11:01 PM
I was thinking about getting into monero but now that I hear that it is used for deepweb or darknet purposes have turned me off it all together,
I don't want to be part of or support something that makes me feel bad everytime I use it.
Atleast bitcoin has had it's bad times but it is trying very hard to separate it's self from those "Dark Days" of it's questionable beginnings. Smiley
So atleast it is trying to make a new dawn in a good light for itself. Grin

Btw, I agree that the focus on marketing to dark markets is not wise. Isn't a mainstream nor appropriate way to teach thinking about organizing for freedom. I've been happy to stand back and watch Monero shoot themselves in the foot.

Please understand that Bitcoin joining the fiat system is not a good thing:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17966654  <--- READ @dinofelis's point please
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17960724

Instead we need anonymity that is compliant with a civilized society:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17968724

Note anonymity will never be 100% iron-clad. The bad guys can still be tracked down. But we need privacy, else we will have totalitarianism. We can't take away the power of the little guy because then we will end up with an asymmetrically all-powerful corrupt State (1984).
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
February 24, 2017, 05:37:36 PM
Anyone have any thoughts on Japan passing law that sees bitcoin as legal tender? Does this open up financial institutions to invest directly?
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