Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 218. (Read 647176 times)

Sorry guys but you are incorrect. Stage #5 is not just one of many possible outcomes, it is the ONLY possible outcome. And the totalitarianism will be global w.r.t. to all things tangible and physical (including precious metals!), thus the only release valve frontier will be decentralization network technology. See the problem with your idyllic and naive fishing plan, is that some power will be preventing you from fishing as TSHTF, because the masses are going to be demanding that the resources are shared equally (which will morph into rationing+eugenics) and the chaos is going to dictate that there is fighting over control of all strategic resources. Remember the masses are not armed (especially outside of the USA) and for example the coasts in the USA are leftists controlled States, e.g. California, Washington and the north-east seaboard. China has ample military to occupy the West coast of the USA and prop up the leftists. The fish food supply would be critical if the conservative interior of the country has shut off supply of food to the coasts. Shutting down trade with the world and access to electronics and other technology can cripple the interior of the USA. An essential ingredient is have an interior that is steadfast on resisting international cooperation and the rise of China, which is Trump is the leading edge of right now. China will see itself as leading the "free" world to international harmony by defeating the renegade white supremacists in the USA. It is very obvious why Rothschild used his influence over Wikileaks and media in the USA to install Trump (also so the conservatives will eat the blame for the global collapse caused by socialism).

The socialism doesn't just die overnight. It dies a painful death of self-destructive totalitarianism. Haven't you guys learned anything from the studying the history of the collapse of Germany or Rome.

If you want to understand why the entropy of the top-down ordered outcome is so low and thus so predictable, refer to the Petri dish analogy from my seminal essay:


Also you have to factor in that China and Russia don't have the socialism and pension debts problem that the West has (their debts can be written off as their demographics and unfunded social liabilities are not yet a huge inertia so their downturn can bottom in 2020 whereas the West will continue to disintegrate even after 2032); thus as China is rebalancing their economy from the Industrial Age exports to the Knowledge Age service industry and consumption (see upthread links to Michael Pettis' blogs), they will displace the West, become the new financial center of the world, and be very strong. Thus the totalitarianism isn't going to abate, because on the heels of the disintegration of the West, China's and Russia's Technocracy form of oligarchy control is rising to a NWO. After Rothschilds' succeeds in dividing-and-conquering Europe and the USA, then he will send Chinese troops into the USA and Russian troops into Europe to complete the NWO enslavement. You aren't going to have any respite. The only release valve is going to be decentralization network technology. The Barbarians are the gates and in another couple to few of decades they will be in your living room. Your silly tangible assets are going to be pet rocks.

What Rothschilds is doing right now is building a short dollar vortex of epic pain, so the world will hate the concept of a reserve currency controlled by any one nation. So the world will acceded to an international cooperative SDR reserve unit (which of course Rothshilds will control with the international central bank).

Would never rule it out. He is pretty open with his work with all branches of the USG - financial war games. But he is also critical of the current system & its chaperones, consistently saying their models are wrong. He thinks a mix of complexity theory, Bayesianism and historical models (like Schumpeter's base) are best for our society. He is very critical of the Fed and USG policy - in that, a bit of a America First / Trump economics supporter.

His trilogy CW, DoM & RTR are fantastic and easy to read for the layperson, but he is also an author trying to sell books and reports and newsletters, like everyone else out there, hence the 'secrets'. His secrets aren't classified stuff, but rather how he uses a mix of complexity theory and bayesian stat analysis to predict the Trumps & Brexits of the world, or meeting with bullion dealers or dinners with Fed officials and his interpretation of their comments eg Bernanke's comment that it is all an experiment / incoherant etc etc.

Again though, you're a hammer and everything you see is a Jewish nail.


Good point, and interesting to note the discussion upthread about humanity being wiped out by a sea level rise. Why? Because we are mostly coastal and an 'overnight' 400ft rise would take most of us down. Indian Vedic mythology has ancient cities of great intelligence and prosperity being wiped out thousands of years ago during the great flood. During the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, as the sea drained away, the spires of building were seen kilometres out to sea. Further, between India & Sri Lanka giant megaliths have been discovered under water indicating a thriving society once lived there on the landbridge.

But also I want to say that TEOTWAWKI is really about 'civilized' society of big screen TV's, Mc Mansions, designer goods and toys. For those who live the village lifestyle; isolated, fishing, simple things, things may not change so much perhaps just an influx of people.



OROBTC, I agree. No-one can know for certain. Armstrong seems to have a very in depth knowledge of historical models, which is really a study in human psychology, how society & power react in times of wealth/power/collapse. MA has been talking a sovereign debt collapse for years, no different from the Rickards of the world. But their delivery and styles are much different. BUt add bits and pieces of relevant info from others too . Dent and Kiyosaki have talked about demographics for a long time, others point out leverage, debt, geopolitic tension, deep state etc etc. Somewhere in there is the recipe for the next big thing.

Rickards book is much darker than I had imagined. His previous works have talked of crisis and monetary resets but here he is point blank saying that we are heading into explicit fascism (not the soft kind we already have) and a complete lockdown of the system:

*Militarization of Police
*Digitilization of Surveillance
*Criminalization of everyday behaviour
*Politicization of Justice.

It ties a lot of things together and has made me think that getting more into crypto might not be such a bad idea.



When you consider that Spanish Flu during WW1 killed more people than the war itself, you can see the disastrous potential that drug resistant bugs pose. Add to this the means of spreading global in 24hrs or the (hopefully) remote possibility of a 12 Monkeys kind of scenario (deliberate release of pathogen) and it feels we are teetering on the edge of something.

For me, I think currently we are a mix of 1984 and Brave New World. Hopefully we don't get to The Road.

Maybe too much doom porn for me today

You guys are not very good economic collapse planners.  For one thing, there is A REASON the majority of large human settlements through history have been bordering the ocean.  If the crops go bad or if there's some type of scarcity issue, people just ratchet up the fishing.  There will be no global "TEOTWAWKI".  There will be many places of low population density that border the ocean where people will fish their way straight through it no matter how bad the economy became.

If the JIT delivery economy collapses, fishing will be the #1 workaround to that.  There is no possible better location than a low population density area bordering the ocean.  As for Anonymint, there's a lot of people stacked like pancakes in the Philippines, so you'd probably need the ability to go far out in the ocean to make due with all that competition.  I mean, if the competition is that high, you would basically be living out at sea.

...

Comments on SHTF and TEOTWAWKI

This should perhaps be a more extended essay, but I pass along these thoughts as they seem to be not much discussed especially in the whole precious metals vs. cryptos conversation.

Which "investment" is the "best" all depends on what happens.  That is such a simple-minded statement, but a neglected thought (and more complex than the statement appears at first glance) in most of these discussions of a SHTF.

It has always been my working thesis that none (let's say very few) of us can know the future.  It is too complex, and whatever variables that Armstrong can crunch (and his work appears to be of great value) cannot foresee events caused by the Beijing Butterfly's flapping wings...  Imagination and information (which Armstrong has) cannot cover all the bases.

Nonetheless, there are trends that do appear to be unstoppable, or nearly so.  iamnotback & Armstrong, IMO, both appear to be correct in their general analyses of trends that look to be very powerful, and even explanatory, in shaping events to come.

* * *

SHTF and TEOTWAWKI are really two separate sets of events (the way I look at them) that overlap.  First comments on my take of the theme of SHTF.

A "SHTF" can be as mild as a 2008 stock market crash, which of course was pretty shitty to those who were exposed...  But the term SHTF seems to be used more (here) as a bigger event, let's say the most commonly cited SHTF would be a large-scale financial collapse that shuts down many parts and conveniences of modern society, but leaves the infrastructure intact.  This set of possibilities would be similar in scale & scope to the Great Depression of the 1930s, in that the electricity stayed on, the factories were left intact (if idle for awhile).  A version of this kind of SHTF would likely leave many impoverished (perhaps no credit cards functioning, no access to their bank accounts), but the bulk of our fixed investments (includes bridges, etc.) that provide great societal value would stay intact.

Of course a SHTF would likely, surely even, manifest itself in unpredictable ways.  Thus, I try to cover many bases, as I certainly cannot predict how this wrinkle vs, another would turn up...

iamnotback refers to various historical scenarios, for example (ex-Yugoslavia, FerFal's experiences in Argentina) where silver and gold were not used as "money" (perhaps "currency" would be the better term).

This apparently is true.  In my own studies of societies in crisis, I have not yet read of one using silver coins as their Medium of Exchange.  It always has been the nearest strong currency (US$, the DM) that such societies adopt.  We can learn from the experiences of the past...

[I hold a little, not much but some, silver]

You never know, so a small holding of silver makes some sense.

Gold is best used as a Store of Value, but it is unclear if gold's role as the premier store of value will always continue so.  In a severe SHTF, gold might only be able to be used:

1)  For large transactions (eg, buy a small farm for 20 oz)

2)  To preserve wealth through a difficult time (similar to the idea of gold being "insurance")

I also acknowledge iamnotback's comment on use of gold to pay for items in a country like the Philippines, or possible almost anywhere, might lead to missing fingers due to robberies...  Use of gold to pay for groceries (etc.) might become rather problematic than is foreseen.

Nonetheless, we can observe the behavior through history of the very wealthy to gain clues as to "what works".  The Rothschilds have been exposed to peril on-and-off for centuries.  They have invested their very large wealth in castles, vineyards, fine art.  They also own a large amount (how much is unknown) of gold.  The castles, art and vineyards can all be confiscated in a SHTF, perhaps later to be returned to the descendants of those whose wealth was so taken.

Gold, however, can be hidden...

Crypto(s) have a place in many of these kinds of events.

Note that all larger-scale events mentioned here are "SHTF Scale" events.

* * *

A "TEOTWAWKI" is not just a larger-scale SHTF, in my opinion.  While my concept of a TEOTWAWKI is perhaps slightly different than the "consensus opinion", it has guided my thinking in how to think about and prepare for it.

While a SHTF would be comparable to the Great Depression, the scarier TEOTWAWKI is more like McCarthy's The Road, or perhaps Orwell's 1984 would be apt as well.

No electricity.  Famine & thirst almost everywhere.  Anarchy and chaos (the bad kinds).  No modern comforts.  Pandemics and violence.

In such, I believe that I would just give up beyond a certain point.  Gold would be useless, or nearly so in the worst scenarios...

My characterization of TEOTWAWKI also eliminates cryptos as a valid asset.  Sorry, but paper wallets mean nothing in a world of wandering refugees.  In these kinds of scenarios, only a water well and guns & ammo count for much.  But what happens when the ammunition runs out...?

* * *

In thinking about Doom Porn, I also looks at the probabilities.  Various kinds of SHTF, IMO, are more likely than the more horrific TEOTWAWKIs.  The impact of the latter is much greater, but the probability is lower.

So, in sum, as we cannot accurately predict the future (we can identify issues and make guesses as to probabilities), I have chosen to diversify my assets (assets in all meanings of the word).

That is why I hold some gold.  More than the average HODLER, but gold is not, as iamnotback mentioned in various comments, a panacea.  As he also wrote:

"There are no panaceas."

Rickards has always been an oddity to me.  He seems to be an insider who was a part of the whole scam system, then he brags about how he's going to tell you "secret" information from the fed/treasury/what have you.  Any of this so called secret information would either be classified or get you killed by spreading it.  Due to this, I'm kinda leaning towards Rickards being some type of disinfo agent.  Harry Dent probably also is.  They give you 60-70% correct info then 30% wrong of the important parts.  Some of these guys exist only to deflect attention away from the Jewish media and banks to try and prevent them from being holocausted again as well.

But...the Goyim know:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFIuATI0558

...

tabnloz & iamnotback

Thank you both for making this recent discussion reach a higher level than I had even hoped for.  Armstrong is a fount of ideas I see nowhere else, even if sometimes wrong.

Nor had I ever considered that TB might come back, bigger and badder than ever.

I believe it was the Chinese who said that problems are never resolved.  Only put away for a time, just to come back later.*


* Or maybe that was Armstrong...   


* * *

tabnloz just referred to Jim Rickards' new book.  I read it a couple of months ago (as I have read his earlier books).  Highly recommended.

Rickards' theory condensed (from Road to Ruin)

"Elites realize money printing may produce not price inflation, but asset inflation, and form new bubbles that could burst and destroy confidence for two generations. The ice-nine solution is standing by if that happens. For now elites push on with reflation like a forlorn platoon neck deep in the Big Muddy"

Much to consider.

Cannot see this trend stopping; something that has built up for years doesn't just disappear. Like dam. ursting, there is a lot of backpressure and debris to collect along the way. The masses will not be placated now the veil has been lifted - it is an undercurrent quickly turning into an overflow that is carving out new channels in the landscape. The status quo of trickle down economics, neokeynesianism,lobbying, ongoing war and manipulation of the public via media IS OVER.

The same way that groupthink & continual bombarding of the masses with targeted narratives worked for the status quo previously is the same way its working to bring them down now. The cat is out of the bag and the recent 'impossible' victories emboldens others to adopt the same ideals. This era of government is OVER and the next year or two will just continue the decline. No doubt though, as referenced above, that tptb will go on the attack to preserve their interests.

I say this as someone who dislikes many parts of the Trump, Brexit narrative. ut completely agress with destroying the scourge of the msm.

It is very crucial that readers you understand what Stage #5 entails and the timing.

The French election in April/May will set fire to the EU and Euro, that will accelerate the short dollar vortex. When the short dollar vortex peaks after roughly 2018, then the USA goes over the cliff and all hell breaks loose in the world. Also a pandemic could start as soon as 2019 (e.g. imagine what war such as when they catapulted the diseased corpses over the walls to spread the Bubonic Plague into Europe that killed 50% of Europe's population in the Black Death and global cooling can unleash with 70 - 80% of those in the Third World being infected currently with LTBI, i.e. latent Tuberculosis infection). Also the Maunder Minimum Ice Age has begun and will accelerate from 2020 going into 2030, causing cold and/or wet places to become frozen and/or flash floods and dry and/or warm places to become drought-sticken and hotter. The tropics (such as Venezuela) can suffer droughts. Mass starvation and/or enforced malnutritionary enslavement+eugenics is coming. So after 2032.95 (i.e. starting in 2033), the West will utterly collapse into chaos (with the USA headed into civil war and breakup):


Edit: to expound a little on the risk of a pandemic. I think the multi-drug resistant strains of superbugs is likely going be the cause of the next pandemic. For example, there are so many Tuberculosis patients in the Philippines who don't finish their 6 month drug therapy and thus the MDR strains are 14.3% (resistant to the two main line drugs) if the new active TB cases. The rate of resistance to all 4 of the TB mainline drugs is roughly 0.5% already in the Philippines for reported active cases at hospitals, but these MDR strains are spreading now as LTBI and we will see the actual incidence of MDR on a lag of several years. For example tonight my gf told me her cousin didn't finish his 6 month prescription and starting drinking Tanduay rum instead as a "treatment" and "he is fine". I got so angry. I said, "he is not fine, he is a public health menace likely being a carrier and manufacturer of MDR TB strains now, with 1000s or millions to be infected downstream from his gross negligence. And since the turn of the 21st century, filipinos have been leaving the country in droves to go work abroad throughout the world as laborers and domestic helpers, thus spreading this LTBI thoughout the world. Note some countries such as the USA require a chest xray for immigrants, but this is not conclusive for LTBI! The Quantiferon test is conclusive, but it costs around $200 and so filipinos can't afford it (the test isn't even generally available in the Philippines). Also you have the rapefugees migration of the Third World into the heart of Europe, likely being carriers of a very high incidence of LTBI.


As the Maunder Minimum kicks in and an Ice Age causes massive malnutrition, then we can see the MDR strains of LTBI triggered to active at massively accelerated rates (currently as reported by the WHO only 0.3% of the population per year in the Philippines, at least for cases reported to hospitals).

This is not a joke. And note TB can't be eradicated like smallpox because there is no effective TB vaccine, and if we even tried to give therapy to those 2+ billion people infected with LTBI, we would end up with massive MDR strain proliferation.

Rome's example is instructive.

Such a total order is impossible because it would require snuffing out every decentralized instance of human ingenuity hiding under every blade of grass on the planet:

(for the same reason NWO can't physically confiscate all the precious metals but NWO can sure as hell make them illiquid as I explained upthread^[1] because of their requirement to be physically traded with centralized market makers who have large economies-of-scale; whereas, the NWO can't make crypto-currency illiquid because just like prohibition of alcohol in the prior century and decentralized file sharing, the more they try to stop it, the more decentralized users of it will increase)

[1]

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16980080 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16980315 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17868111 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16739692 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16770121 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16737988 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16755123 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16742292 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16753527 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16730530 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16732850 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16769418 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16729361 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16733941 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16737879 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16910820 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16916220 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17080482 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17084075 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17173412 https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17174452

Recent comments on the electricity and Internet grid issue:

And incorporate the creative destruction aspect of Stage #5.

So clearly we see what is being created is the antithesis of the NWO, i.e. the decentralized society that is rising to become Stage #6.

This is why the goldbugs are entirely wrong. The NWO is going to take Universal Surveillance control over the tangible economy and destroy it. All tangible stores of wealth will die, and only the new decentralized forms of capital in the Knowledge Age will survive.

And unlike the Fall of the Western Roman Empire, this NWO will be geographically global. The frontier this time will not be geographical (i.e. no Byzantine Eastern Empire), but rather the decentrzalized online economy will be the release value and frontier that provides the way out of the creative destruction.

This is absolutely crucial to understand. And I as @AnonyMint have been explaining this since 2012 with my seminal essay in the Economic Devastation thread and then the various quotes since such as in 2014.


The actual source is the power vacuum created by the natural requirement to concentrate fixed capital in the Industrial Age. The banksters just stepped into that natural power vacuum.

I've read through the PM's & Collapse thread. Really interesting (however I find it strange that people cannot read & take in the opposite argument to their own.)

Initially I thought that PM's would be the fall back option at least until the baby boomer generation dies off. But it would be contextual - which direction a society takes under such strain is hard to know. This would depending on location, type of collapse:

- War, eg in China would see generational gold enter society as payment for safe passage etc not traditionally trusting government like pre WW2 where 'Yamashita's Gold' was looted from China, Philippines, Malay & "stored" for future use in Luzon, Mindanao, Bagiuo, Manilla.

 - Financial, like the great depression whre infrastructure remains

 - Or war as in Serbia where cigarettes, food & alcohol were used (terrific book McMafia by Misha Glenny shows how both leaders enriched themselves as their people died by trading behind the scenes)


But iamnotback makes some great points, namely:

during ww2 gold was used because it already the backbone of the system, unlike now.

as long as infrastructure survives (indicating a financial system collapse) the internet & the speed at which solutions can be engineered outside of governmental avenues. and crypto is blooming, could soon be as ubiquitous as mobile phones. if crypto overcomes onramping obstacles it could serve as the path of least resistance ie stored & sent via mobile phones.

that a total financial system collapse could shove us into a dark age of food shortages (4 meal theory) and need for weapons. in isolated or war torn areas, are PM's more viable than food or ammo.

More Armstrong lies.  The only source of Marxism is the Jews, it does not originate from anywhere else.  This is always where it comes from.  They do not "believe" Marxism is some great form of ideology, they only use it as a political weapon to subjugate real civilizations (unlike their own).  You see, for all the Jews claims of being intelligent and superior thinkers, they have never once built a civilization superior or even equal to anyone else's.  The entire history of the Jew is infiltrating real human civilizations and trying to insert themselves as middlemen parasites to live off usury (i.e. scammers).

Since all homogeneous human civilizations always expel the parasites that try to subjugate them - which has happened to the Jews in at least 109 countries now - the Jew's only hope to practice his parasitical usury is to try and run a divide and conquer strategy of Marxism.  You flood a country with 3rd world cavemen to create a bunch of warring factions, then the homogeneous population is marginalized and no one can come together to overthrow the parasites (or so they think).

This is the basis of everything going on now.  It's all just parasitical Jewish banking and media trying to mold the world into some form that allows them to practice their scams without being expelled or holocausted in the process.  Armstrong is a known dirtbag shill for the Jews and can't be trusted as far as you can throw him as evidenced by his past posts:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/anti-semitic-and-pro-nazi-activities-rising/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/europes-economic-history/jewish-bankers-vs-all-bankers/

Insightful Dennis Kucinich interview.

The deep state is at war with the USG, going all out against Trump (but also ruining the Obama initiative in Syria). The Cold Warriors want to determine foreign policy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j_ZfKmcnSk

Being the pig means you dont know who the other pigs are.. whatever direction the pig takes you have a massivr edge being his counterpart in any market.. just the way the world works

You'll never figure out why I am nearly always correct in my predictions (and you will even go misinterpret and misrepresent my predictions to convince yourself I wasn't correct):

Your idea makes a lot of sense iamnotback.

I guess that Armstrong's view is colored by his dealings with government. While the systems function, they are very hard to defeat.

But yes watch the engineers generate solutions. Even at the most basic level this already occurs - we see 3rd world nations improvise and innovate when government has failed them, an example being the plastic bottle + bleach + water, set in the roof to generate light.

Final warning to the goldbugs:

As this largely impacted US, Canada & Europe (where the Laurentide & Cordellian ice sheets reached), it didn't wipe out all of humanity. But you can be sure everyone on earth was impacted by it. Survivors would pass the tale on through mythology - it's suggested by Randall Carlson that a comet impact ties in with the mythology of Halloween, Day of the Dead, Festival of the Dead etc which occur on roughly the same day (a global remembrance of a catastrophe?). And what is Halloween / All Hallows Day represented by? A witch, flaming hair & a broomstick: all ancient ways to describe comets. Similar symbology is seen in Mexico & Sth America. Other common symbols are of serpents.

It is interesting to note that some words literally describe events like these:

catastrophe - iirc derived from ancient greek kata (meaning down but also at times cup, bowl, crater), astro (meaning from the stars), so literally falling stars that cause massive destruction.

So the comet theory is that multiple impacts (from the Taurid meteor stream) hit the Nth US / Canada ice sheet and melted the ice, wiping out megafauna & Clovis culture (US). The NW US geology supports a catastrophe - the amount of water flow needed to carve the ancient river channels that are way, way above present day Snake & Columbia rivers, to transport glacial erratics hundreds of miles, to ripple the earth in the channelled scablands, could only come from a massive heat source. It would also send shit into the atmosphere, start massive wildfires and the flow of water into the pacific coast would not only raise sea levels by hundreds of feet but disrupt the warm water currents with ice water. So, we would have plunged back into an ice age. And the evidence from black mat samples & Greenland ice cores samples make a compelling case for extra terrestrial impact.

Hancock is a good writer who makes some interesting connections and points out areas where mainstream science and academia have just papered over inconsistencies. Similar to mainstream economists who are set in their thinking and attached to their beliefs, egyptology, geology and archaeology are the same. The mythology is the most interesting to me and his interpretation of early religion. Having spent a lot of time in the middle east I find it fascinating.

I find Hancock is good at collating and tying together the works of others, like Randall Carlson, Robert Shoch (who proposes a solar flare theory not a comet), West etc. He bases much of his updated theories on them and the publications of the Holocene Impact Working Group as they are mainstream scientists analysing black mat samples, tsunami marking (Madagascar & South Australia having most prominent features from around 5,000 yrs ago) and undersea impact craters.

r0ach you do not even understand MA's thesis which derives from his extensive study of history.

Hyperinflation NEVER occurs in a country which is still able to sell its debt. It happens only in countries which are undergoing revolutions or dictatorships and where the public have lost confidence in the government. The USA has the strongest military and will not hyperinflate away the debt. At some point, they will do a monetary reset and rape you goldbugs. Watch and learn from the master.

I am not going to reply to the nonsense any more. Heading back to my profession as a computer programmer.