Well, I obviously have far less faith in this Armstrong guy than you do. I've seen the general summary of how he claims to predict markets: international capital flows seeking safety or returns, then seems to derive how everything moves by an ambiguous, impossible to quantify variable known as confidence.
You have no clue what he is doing. He literally put $billion (inflation-adjusted to current dollars) of data from 6000 B.C. to real-time present into the supercomputer to analyze all the repeating patterns in a multi-dimensional correlation that extracts the Strange Attactor order hidden in Chaos (Chaos Theory). This model has predicted everything accurately for 30 years. Did you know he told us in advance March 13/14 would signify a major turn in the global markets to the downside, and that is precisely when the deadcat bounce in the Baltic Sea index rolled over. r0ach you will get your ass burned claiming Armstrong is a clown. Read this and tell me this guy doesn't know every detail of history that wasn't written in any history text book:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/ancient-economies/vikings/The guy spent $10 million (in 1980s dollars) alone just collecting everything silver coin from the Roman empire and constructing the first accurate silver price chart of that era based on the actual silver content.
I mean, everyone knows markets are "confidence games" already, I just don't see how you can plug that into any objective mathematical formula when it requires him to arbitrate what markets have confidence or not via his own opinion.
He also explains how, when, and why confidence will shift and his computer model tracks all of that.
Then the fact that you have, to borrow a Max Keiser term
Please don't compare a clown to a scientist.
, suicide central bankers constantly and irrationally manipulating levers to distort the market. I mean, come on, any prediction model someone builds is useless in a centrally administered, non-freemarket economy unless he's a government insider. There is no bypassing that fact.
Armstrong is not using a crowdsourced prediction market. His method is scientific and has been backtested to every event in history down to even minutest detail.
On to the next problem. Let's assume this guy isn't a circus clown and has made some accurate predictions in the past. Let's say he's looking at markets and says, "Ok, historical data shows when capital moves this way, the price of gold goes down because either strengthening dollar, inflation, deflation, etc". To determine which way gold moves in such a scenario, you would first have to define whether gold is being treated as a currency or commodity by the market.
He can teach you everything about precisely that topic. You will learn many new things.
It seems he just assumes gold will always be a useless commodity and will never be a currency again.
Ah you have a lot of learn from the master. Seriously. You better getting started asap. Or you can just wait, and I will tell you, "I told you so" later.
The second he gets that "guess" wrong, well his entire model is fucked.
Please don't be a Dunning-Kruger fool. Seriously. It is embarrassing. Don't make statements like that without reading Armstrong for a couple of weeks until you realize how foolish your statement is.
I would not tell you to waste your time. You know my reputation by now.
Or, maybe the US keeps using the dollar, but India or some other country converts entirely to gold. I have zero faith in this guy to predict the future because there's far too many variables to address.
Sadly you have no faith in what you refuse to study. How smart is that?
The next problem is, he doesn't seem to talk about Bitcoin at all (if ever?).
He does. And he doesn't think much of it. I think he doesn't understand Bitcoin is part of the global monetary reset he knows is coming after 2018. He knows there will be a new reserve currency that isn't controlled by any nation. He seems to think Bitcoin is not controlled by the elite. He apparently doesn't know that China controls 65% of the hashrate and so Bitcoin is already a fiat system.
I feel you're just extrapolating what he says about gold and blanket applying a correlation to Bitcoin when there is no evidence of one.
That is possible. He has not made a price prediction on Bitcoin.
It's entirely possible the market treats gold as a commodity and Bitcoin as a currency, or even vice versa.
He says the market will treat gold as a hedge against government.
It's also possible the fed loses control on gold/silver manipulation and some kind of hell breaks lose.
He has already proven there is only manipulation to the upside and never to the downside. He was the largest trader on commodities ever. He knew Warren Buffet was the mystery buyer. He was on the inside with PhilBro. Dude you have no clue who Armstrong is. Please do your homework which will requires weeks.
Armstrong assumes the dollar is the safe haven of the world and will benefit in times of distrust in other markets. He makes this assumption even though confidence in the dollar and it's institutions are already at a historical low. A computer model didn't tell him this, he had to make these assumptions. Due to being free of central banker manipulation, it's entirely possible something like Bitcoin could have much higher confidence than the dollar in such situations. He doesn't address Bitcoin at all, and you just assume Bitcoin will follow a non-existent, gold as a commodity and not a currency correlation. Let's not even get into the fact that a central banker flipping one lever decides if the economy implodes in deflation or hyperinflation, making whatever he predicts completely obsolete.
And he will be correct with 100% certainty. Sorry you speak Dunning-Kruger nonsense.
.
