Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 276.

TPTB_need_war

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Quote from: altcoinUK on April 20, 2016, 10:39:53 PM

Quote from: r0ach on April 20, 2016, 09:48:34 PM

Anonymint, you are trying way too hard to get Bitcoin to fit some Armstrong gold forecast when the two have no correlation...

The halving is not some insignificant event. It dwarfs any tiny change in interest rates or other variables. There is also the fact that Bitcoin would be seen by some as a failure if the halving was unable to produce any increase in price, so vested interests (me being one of them) will engineer it to prevent that from happening, hence why you already see a $25 price increase. What is sustainable is unknown, and will only be known a month or two afterwards, but the price will be raised to find out.

Actually that's true. I pointed out several times in the Armstrong thread how wrong TPTB_need_war is with his Bitcoin forecasts, and that's the source of the errors: he is trying to correlate BTC with the gold model of Armstrong.

There is a very strong correlation.

Quote from: smooth on April 21, 2016, 12:04:31 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 08:26:25 PM

Quote from: r0ach on April 20, 2016, 07:34:40 PM

Anonymint, I don't know how you can fall into the beginner trap of saying the halving is "priced in".

Obvious he is at least semi-trolling you.

How is presenting an alternative theory of the 2013 Bitcoin bubble trolling?

That all of you think it is impossible reminds me of market theory that the majority is always wrong.

So let's stay tuned for the outcome...

Alex-11

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I have figured out that when it comes to futures markets Armstrong's reversal model switches over to the next month's contracts halfway through each month, so as of Monday his reversals model has been tracking June contracts. [/quote]

I heard it is always the contract used with the highest volume.

Quote from: Lateralus on April 20, 2016, 07:12:52 PM

Today (April 20th) Crude futures closed at 44.18 electing 3 Major daily bullish reversals @ 42.50 — 42.62 — 44.12, as well as 1 Minor reversal @ 43.40.
Array Analysis: https://i.imgur.com/dEr5UjZ.png (still a newbie, can't embed the image sorry)

very interesting array and analysis. Thank you.
Since yesterday the composite on the top is the highest bar, according to Martin, on that day the intra-day high (or low) should have been made. I personally noticed that sometimes the intra-day high/low is varies slightly (e.g. 1 time unit before or after the turning point), but often it is also exactly right.
From what I heard, Martin advise to look mainly on the composite row for turning points. This is the sum of all his 72 models. Then also the directional changes and the panic cycles. I've barely saw him writing about trading cycles from the arrays.

I also thought that crude oil would go up to the 45/46 level (as Martin predicted), but I'm really surprised how fast it jumps up.

Martin also said that Oil may rally into May. So if we now already reached the 45 level, will it now go down and be back up in May?
This sounds to me like the logical conclusion to me. Maybe it even reaches the 49 target (provided by Martin) during May.

OROBTC

legendary

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...

Since this is "my" thread I can guess whatever the f*** I want...

My guess is that the Halving likely is priced in, but I do not know. I have not been in the Bitcoin Universe long enough to make a confident prediction.

If we see both increased adoption (users and merchants, the latter especially), that will help as the supply will be tighter.

If the price starts making big jumps and reaches, or nearly does, in the short-term, that will get a lot of attention. Just like BTC got a lot of attention last time (Zero Hedge, etc.) when at & near its ATH.

My guess is no big price jumps, but I could very well be wrong! Wink

TPTB_need_war

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Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 08:26:25 PM

Quote from: r0ach on April 20, 2016, 07:34:40 PM

Anonymint, I don't know how you can fall into the beginner trap of saying the halving is "priced in". For something to be priced in, it would imply there is some form of equilibrium at hand, meaning the price goes up, minining power doesn't increase with it, halving occurs, then mining power stays the same. That isn't what happened at all though. The price went up and more mining power joined the network, raising the price floor months ago and it has been shown to be pretty stable at the higher price. Now when the halving occurs, the price is either required to increase a lot, or lots of miners will have to drop out. There is no form of equilibrium at hand. Tidal waves of cause and effect have to occur.

We also know that ASICs require lots of R&D investment and capital. Since people have already invested millions of dollars in mining farms, there is no way in hell they are going to turn off their 16nm, state of the art miners. Current process node miners simply do not turn them off ever. They always mine at a loss or buy coins off the wall to dollar cost average before doing that. Even if you did think the Bitcoin price was unsustainable (it's not, market cap is still small), it's inevitable the price would spike higher before any unsustainable reality could set in.

The act of mining is also a decentralized exchange while Coinbase is a centralized exchange. Supply is being cut in half on the DEX while demand remains the same because miners are simply not going to be turned off. Centralized exchanges are forced to follow the price action.

1. Marginal miners continuing to mine has no positive effect on the price. If hashrate doesn't halve, they have to sell proportionally (to the block reward) more Bitcoin to pay expenses. So while the main argument for the price increasing (other than expectations of investors), is the halving of the annual supply of coins will be available for selling from mining, some of that could be offset by increased selling as more marginal miners become cash flow negative. So the initial effect could be an increase in selling while marginal miners try to stay afloat hoping price will rise. This is entire consistent with the V crash followed by a slingshot rocket up, which is what I stated is possible.

2. Marginal miners won't shut off their mining once Bitcoin becomes unprofitable for them, instead they will shift their ASICs to Bitcoin clones. Another Litecoin (formerly the GPU switch) is out there right now, waiting to be beneficially. Is it Vcash? What Bitcoin clones are out there?

3. I don't think the DEX demand via mining is entirely price inelastic. At some price, it is more profitable to mine an altcoin, then trade it for Bitcoins (after pumping the price of the altcoin by mining out the float and doing manipulation).

The game theory is much more sophisticated than your simplistic one.

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 08:53:31 PM

There was a -40% price crash of Bitcoin about 3 months before the last halving, so that would correspond to roughly this May:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg1460zczsg2012-04-23zeg2013-01-22ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply#Projected_Bitcoins_Short_Term

Also the price rise in 2013 followed not only the halving but also the first ASIC miners:

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/40944/when-did-the-asic-mining-era-begin

So another possible theory is the ASIC miners had such lower costs, that more and more Bitcoin was being held and not sold to pay expenses. And thus leading to the 2013 bubbles.

Whereas, the opposite economics this halving, in that more miners will have their costs increase unless the price doubles, thus more Bitcoin proportionally being dumped on the market until those marginal miners exit and go mine an altcoin.

TPTB_need_war

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Quote from: Yakamoto on April 20, 2016, 07:48:51 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 20, 2016, 07:24:20 PM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 06:50:00 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 20, 2016, 05:33:39 PM

Halving is not priced in ... it is now being and will be, eventually.

Think of it like the 6,3,2,1 month discount interest rate future pricing mechanism on money markets.

Equity markets don't work like rational discount rate computations. Rather they work on shifts in expectations coincident with momentum, since one of the rational actions is to chase price.

So popular expectations are normally priced in early, which is why the maxim "buy the rumor, sell the news" exists. I applied that to publicly call the March top in the ETH price once Homestead was released (sell the news).

Note in recent blogs, Armstrong is stating May/June, else August as the potential timing for a directional change. And bottom in gold maybe not until 2017.

bitcoin is not an equity and behaves very little like an equity market ... or any market for that matter.

That's why I said money markets ...

Bitcoin is definitely more like a currency than an equity, there are so few comparisons between Bitcoin and any asset aside from a currency.

I'm not sure why he thought you meant an asset lol.

Bitcoin is still controlled by a combination of investment expectations (as if it were a stock) and complex game theory, and not straightforward discount computations.

Your assumptions about what I thought are not what I thought.

Yakamoto

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Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 20, 2016, 07:24:20 PM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 06:50:00 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 20, 2016, 05:33:39 PM

Halving is not priced in ... it is now being and will be, eventually.

Think of it like the 6,3,2,1 month discount interest rate future pricing mechanism on money markets.

Equity markets don't work like rational discount rate computations. Rather they work on shifts in expectations coincident with momentum, since one of the rational actions is to chase price.

So popular expectations are normally priced in early, which is why the maxim "buy the rumor, sell the news" exists. I applied that to publicly call the March top in the ETH price once Homestead was released (sell the news).

Note in recent blogs, Armstrong is stating May/June, else August as the potential timing for a directional change. And bottom in gold maybe not until 2017.

bitcoin is not an equity and behaves very little like an equity market ... or any market for that matter.

That's why I said money markets ...

Bitcoin is definitely more like a currency than an equity, there are so few comparisons between Bitcoin and any asset aside from a currency.

I'm not sure why he thought you meant an asset lol.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 06:50:00 PM

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 20, 2016, 05:33:39 PM

Halving is not priced in ... it is now being and will be, eventually.

Think of it like the 6,3,2,1 month discount interest rate future pricing mechanism on money markets.

Equity markets don't work like rational discount rate computations. Rather they work on shifts in expectations coincident with momentum, since one of the rational actions is to chase price.

So popular expectations are normally priced in early, which is why the maxim "buy the rumor, sell the news" exists. I applied that to publicly call the March top in the ETH price once Homestead was released (sell the news).

Note in recent blogs, Armstrong is stating May/June, else August as the potential timing for a directional change. And bottom in gold maybe not until 2017.

bitcoin is not an equity and behaves very little like an equity market ... or any market for that matter.

That's why I said money markets ...

Lateralus

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Going to try my hand at throwing out a potential swing trade on Crude using Armstrong's arrays & reversals model (I have access to the Socrates trader preview). I'm still figuring out how to properly read his models, so don't bet the farm on this as I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be totally wrong.

I have figured out that when it comes to futures markets Armstrong's reversal model switches over to the next month's contracts halfway through each month, so as of Monday his reversals model has been tracking June contracts.

Today (April 20th) Crude futures closed at 44.18 electing 3 Major daily bullish reversals @ 42.50 — 42.62 — 44.12, as well as 1 Minor reversal @ 43.40.

Array Analysis:
https://i.imgur.com/dEr5UjZ.png (still a newbie, can't embed the image sorry)

As you can see the Trading Cycle model on the daily array is showing that today might be a temporary high as we drop down to test the Major weekly bullish reversal @ 42.77 on Friday’s close, which if elected could be followed by a large gap-up over the weekend ending in a major high during intraday trading on Monday (most likely around 46 as that is the next Major weekly bullish reversal).

TPTB_need_war

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Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on April 20, 2016, 05:33:39 PM

Halving is not priced in ... it is now being and will be, eventually.

Think of it like the 6,3,2,1 month discount interest rate future pricing mechanism on money markets.

Equity markets don't work like rational discount rate computations. Rather they work on shifts in expectations coincident with momentum, since one of the rational actions is to chase price.

So popular expectations are normally priced in early, which is why the maxim "buy the rumor, sell the news" exists. I applied that to publicly call the March top in the ETH price once Homestead was released (sell the news).

Note in recent blogs, Armstrong is stating May/June, else August as the potential timing for a directional change. And bottom in gold maybe not until 2017.

marcus_of_augustus

legendary

Activity: 3920

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Halving is not priced in ... it is now being and will be, eventually.

Think of it like the 6,3,2,1 month discount interest rate future pricing mechanism on money markets.

sidhujag

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Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 02:09:52 PM

Quote from: darlidada on April 20, 2016, 02:01:20 PM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 01:30:45 PM

The deadcat bounces are almost done. Prepare for the (more and more likely) fakeout crash V bottom slingshot:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/central-banks-are-trapped-higher-interest-rates-the-only-answer/

The only uncertainty is bitcoin. If there was no halving I would get the fuck out, but its here and its coming and everyone is talking about how crazy the rally will be -- this alone isnt a great indicator though. And can it really go high if there isnt the media bringing fresh blood to give it fuel ? Will the miners be able to manufacture a rally by themselves in order to make the price above their mining price ? At what point is it safe bet to be in crypto again ?

I wonder you often talk about early 2013 where all the signals were green.

Right now we only have the upcoming halving. Shouldnt it be enough to bring us near the previous ATH and then we go back down HARD like you expect ?

The halving looks priced in to me:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14603897

I suggest you make another poll in the Bitcoin Discussion forum and ask who is holding for the halving. The poll linked above started in August 2015.

Looks the opposite to me.

OROBTC

legendary

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Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 01:30:45 PM

The deadcat bounces are almost done. Prepare for the (more and more likely) fakeout crash V bottom slingshot:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/central-banks-are-trapped-higher-interest-rates-the-only-answer/

That was a very timely post by Armstrong. Two things I noted:

1) I agree that they have to raise rates. NIRP is a disaster for savers, savers are the only group who can provide capital to fund our growth. And savers will leave the system if they keep getting nickle-and-dimed by current Central Bank policies.

2) Armstrong's ominous second paragraph re political pressures for mandatory contributions to state pension programs is important to note. I sold (got out of) my IRA in 2008. The IRAs and the 401(k)s are the last big pots of easy to seize money.

Extreme caution is the appropriate response in your financial matters.

TPTB_need_war

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Quote from: darlidada on April 20, 2016, 02:01:20 PM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 01:30:45 PM

The deadcat bounces are almost done. Prepare for the (more and more likely) fakeout crash V bottom slingshot:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/central-banks-are-trapped-higher-interest-rates-the-only-answer/

The only uncertainty is bitcoin. If there was no halving I would get the fuck out, but its here and its coming and everyone is talking about how crazy the rally will be -- this alone isnt a great indicator though. And can it really go high if there isnt the media bringing fresh blood to give it fuel ? Will the miners be able to manufacture a rally by themselves in order to make the price above their mining price ? At what point is it safe bet to be in crypto again ?

I wonder you often talk about early 2013 where all the signals were green.

Right now we only have the upcoming halving. Shouldnt it be enough to bring us near the previous ATH and then we go back down HARD like you expect ?

The halving looks priced in to me:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14603897

I suggest you make another poll in the Bitcoin Discussion forum and ask who is holding for the halving. The poll linked above started in August 2015.

darlidada

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Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 20, 2016, 01:30:45 PM

The deadcat bounces are almost done. Prepare for the (more and more likely) fakeout crash V bottom slingshot:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/central-banks-are-trapped-higher-interest-rates-the-only-answer/

The only uncertainty is bitcoin. If there was no halving I would get the fuck out, but its here and its coming and everyone is talking about how crazy the rally will be -- this alone isnt a great indicator though. And can it really go high if there isnt the media bringing fresh blood to give it fuel ? Will the miners be able to manufacture a rally by themselves in order to make the price above their mining price ? At what point is it safe bet to be in crypto again ?

I wonder you often talk about early 2013 where all the signals were green.

Right now we only have the upcoming halving. Shouldnt it be enough to bring us near the previous ATH and then we go back down HARD like you expect ?

TPTB_need_war

sr. member

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The deadcat bounces are almost done. Prepare for the (more and more likely) fakeout crash V bottom slingshot:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/central-banks-are-trapped-higher-interest-rates-the-only-answer/

altcoinUK

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Quote from: loafer_1997 on April 16, 2016, 10:08:23 PM

If you are long term investor/swing trader, how do you guys trade this market?

I find it's difficult for me.

I guess, I am a swing trader as I have 2-5 trades a day, and from day trading standpoint I can't see any differences nor difficulties in the market. It seems to me the market is very much the same which has been in the last 20-30 years. Nobody knows what drives the market (probably the confidence what Armstrong talks about, perhaps the Boys & crooks of Goldman Sachs, who knows what drives it), but the short term trends still provide the traders with opportunities. We retested the August 2015 lows 2 months ago - since then the market is going up. The usual stuff, isn't it? Up and down.

The slingshot of Armstrong is still on the table, even his scenario of DJIA 13K could develop. Just like his other option about straight away to the DJIA 28K could be the direction. Place your stop losses and you should be fine even if you are totally wrong about the direction. Also, technicals like Elliott wave and Fibonacci helps. Using the chart keeps the trader calm and helps minimizing the mistakes.

Good luck with your trades!

TPTB_need_war

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Armstrong reiterates that the Central Banks can't maintain the negative interest rates:

Quote from: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/negative-interest-rates-destroying-the-world-economy/

Yes, I have warned that the central banks are trapped. Their QE policies have totally failed. They have lost all ability to manage the economy even in theory. They have bought the bonds and are unable to ever sell them. If they reverse their policy, government debt explodes, if the refuse to reverse this policy of negative interest rates they will see a massive capital flight from government to the private sector once the MAJORITY realize they are incapable of any control. They played a very dangerous game and have lost. It appears we are facing the collapse of Social Security which began August 14th, 1935 (1935.619). We will probably see the end of this program 2021.772 (October 9th, 2021), or about 89 weeks into the next business cycle.

We have government addicted to borrowing and if rates rise, then will go bust. We have debt which is unsustainable the further you move away from the United States which is the core economy. Unfunded pensions destroyed the Roman Empire. We are collapsing in the very same manner and for the very same reason.

TPTB_need_war

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Quote from: freshman777 on April 18, 2016, 02:22:23 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 17, 2016, 03:39:11 PM

Quote from: freshman777 on April 17, 2016, 04:24:00 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 17, 2016, 03:27:39 AM

Quote from: OROBTC on April 16, 2016, 08:12:19 PM

Armstrong also disses the idea that gold will go to a very high price ($10,000, or even $64,000, non-hyper-inflated dollars). I am not sure that I agree with MA on this. My best guess is that they will run out of physical gold at some point vs. all the paper gold. I guess we will wait and see.

ORO my man, gold is never coming back as money every again. It is purely a speculation. That is why it will top at $5000 maximum. I understand it is very hard for you to accept this, but the reasons are very obvious. Physical money is a dinosaur in this era where we trade money instantly digitally. Gold is too slow. Fugetaboutit already.

Sorry man. I know you want wealth to not grow wings and fly away, but the Bible tells you that is impossible.

I love to hold gold 1 oz coins in my hand. It isn't a lack of passion for gold on my part. It is just my rationality.

Is this the case in the Philippines? In your estimation how much of the SE Asia transactions nowadays are digital and physical cash?

It is still mostly physical cash (80 - 90%?), but in another 5 - 10 years everyone will have a smartphone. The shift to all digital will be very rapid. The AsianUnion will open everything and poverty will be gone by 2033.

The world is going to change so fast...

I wouldn't be so sure, changing habits is not easy, it's not about giving everyone a smartphone. Large groups of the population can't and will not want to shift to all digital, physical money will have a significant share of transactions in the foreseeable future.

You don't realize how difficult it is here to get change for 500 pesos ($11).

You don't realize how young filipinos hate to carry around these heavy metal coins in their stylish no pockets clothes.

You don't realize that the Philippines was the SMS capital of the world before Twitter arrived.

Sorry you are don't realize that there are more filipinos under age 25 than over it.

The youth spend much of their time online here. The change is already underway.

freshman777

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Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 17, 2016, 03:39:11 PM

Quote from: freshman777 on April 17, 2016, 04:24:00 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on April 17, 2016, 03:27:39 AM

Quote from: OROBTC on April 16, 2016, 08:12:19 PM

Armstrong also disses the idea that gold will go to a very high price ($10,000, or even $64,000, non-hyper-inflated dollars). I am not sure that I agree with MA on this. My best guess is that they will run out of physical gold at some point vs. all the paper gold. I guess we will wait and see.

ORO my man, gold is never coming back as money every again. It is purely a speculation. That is why it will top at $5000 maximum. I understand it is very hard for you to accept this, but the reasons are very obvious. Physical money is a dinosaur in this era where we trade money instantly digitally. Gold is too slow. Fugetaboutit already.

Sorry man. I know you want wealth to not grow wings and fly away, but the Bible tells you that is impossible.

I love to hold gold 1 oz coins in my hand. It isn't a lack of passion for gold on my part. It is just my rationality.

Is this the case in the Philippines? In your estimation how much of the SE Asia transactions nowadays are digital and physical cash?

It is still mostly physical cash (80 - 90%?), but in another 5 - 10 years everyone will have a smartphone. The shift to all digital will be very rapid. The AsianUnion will open everything and poverty will be gone by 2033.

The world is going to change so fast...

I wouldn't be so sure, changing habits is not easy, it's not about giving everyone a smartphone. Large groups of the population can't and will not want to shift to all digital, physical money will have a significant share of transactions in the foreseeable future.

mnemonicsoup

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Activity: 200

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TPTB, what do you think about silver?

And would you mind answering my question about mines? If gold will go up in 16/17, so will mines, no?

Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 276. (Read 647196 times)