Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 280. (Read 647062 times)

I have Investor level for some time now, and yes, there was a change where regional subscriptions have been condensed to a single site membership. My original intention of subscribing was to be a small sign of gratitude for all the work that MA has done (and still doing), and more importantly, that he is willing to share it publicly. I learned (understand more importantly) so much about economics by reading his blog, and my starting point on economics was absolute beginner.

But this guy just doesn't stop to amaze me. I was following Socrates on irregular level, since I didn't understand much in the beginning. But in the same time, as time was allowing, I started to educate myself on the actual modelling that MA is doing. And it's not a trivial thing to understand. Lately I started to have a grasp of what MA is actually doing with his modelling, and I can start to imagine the amount of work that MA has put into it. And from my point of view, it's monumental.

From where I sit now, if I decide to put some money in trading, I wouldn't think twice to subscribe to the Trader level, which is still not available. I would love to put my hands on the information for the Reversals coupled with the Timing Arrays. Since one without the other, doesn't quite provide that much of a view.
If one by subscribing expects to receive straight forward guidance to buy, or sell, then forget about it. I wouldn't recommend to subscribe, since one can get disappointed, and maybe come back and bash on MA.
But, if one puts an effort in order to UNDERSTAND what MA and his modelling is about, then that will separate the men from the boys. Pls be aware though, it's not a trivial process, at least not for me, .

I'm assuming that information for the Reversals and the Timing Arrays are only available to MA's clients. Also I'm wondering, has maybe MA sometimes in the past published publicly the fixed frequencies of the transverse waves for some of the markets.

FYI since I didn't see it mentioned:
It seems armstrongs subscription model has changed. It looks like there is now one investor level account at 150$ with global coverage instead of three regions at 150$ each. If so thats great since 450$ p.a. imo wasn't "no man left behind" like initially promised.

m_of_a

I don't see Trump taking us back to a gold standard.  Physical gold owners, of size, would benefit too much.  Gold would have to valued at very high levels to be a credible PARTIAL backing of a future US$.

Best, IMO, to just let gold go completely...  Let the 500 paper claims on each ounce just try to get the ONE physical ounce...

fofoa.blogspot.com   <--- Long and complicated, he is the source of "$55,000" (per oz) gold.

*   *   *

Auditing the FED is long overdue.  But, recall that almost all of the gold that the FRBNY has in their Manhattan vault is foreign-owned gold (+/- 400 tonnes is US gold, the rest foreign).  If they come up short, ahh, big oops!

It would be of great use to carefully examine, by a solid & credible audit), all of the various activities of the FED that would be of interest (one I am curious about is how much money they sent to weak European banks).

Trump wants to audit the Federal Reserve and clean out the stables.

Return US dollar to constitutional money, new Gold Standard coming?

Nassim Taleb, thematically on the same path as MA

1. The *establishment* composed of journos, BS-Vending talking heads with well-formulated verbs, bureaucrato-cronies, lobbyists-in training, New Yorker-reading semi-intellectuals, image-conscious empty suits, Washington rent-seekers and other "well thinking" members of the vocal elites are not getting the point about what is happening and the sterility of their arguments. People are not voting for Trump (or Sanders). People are just voting, finally, to destroy the establishment.



2."What we are seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking "clerks" and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think... and 5) who to vote for.
With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30y of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, microeconomic papers wrong 40% of the time, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating only 1/5th of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers with a better track record than these policymaking goons.
Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats wanting to run our lives aren't even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking. I have shown that most of what Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types call "rational" or "irrational" comes from misunderstanding of probability theory."

edit:added 1.

aminorex, interesting and handy view. Maybe I'm biased by reasons put out by MA, and I'm leaning more towards yes for the rate hike. But, if one puts himself in FED's shoes, it would be easier for the FED's not to hike the rate, considering what is happening around them (ECB, BOJ, ...). So, if the FED not hike the rate, it would be mostly accepted I guess as part of what the others do. If they do hike the rate, I assume FED's are aware where that leads, and that option might look a bit scary to them.

Anyhow, here is what MA said about it mid-December last year. As it can be witnessed, reasoning elaborated for rate hike doesn't really apply at this period of time (bubble because of the stock market rise), which of course doesn't exclude it for later period of time (being postponed). Still, although that reasoning doesn't quite apply at the moment, it doesn't exclude the rate hike in March (normalizing the rates per FED).

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/the-fed-the-future/

I have not read his recent report.  I have often found M. Armstrong's estimations similar to my own.  I was in some disagreement with him about 2015.75, however, and I was proven right, in my own estimation.  Although, I do believe that July was a generational SPX top.  2134, in constant money terms?  Maybe again in 2029.

I describe only the positions I choose for my own portfolio.  Your needs and objectives may differ.

THANK YOU -- I trust this above is in-line with Sir Amrstrong

You have to be able to game the boards of the regional banks to predict this with any accuracy.  

Big picture:  Failure to hike will be utterly devastating to fed credibility.  OTOH, hiking means market chaos now, and in the long run destroys the US Treasury with debt service.

My *guess*:  They move to preserve credibility sooner rather than later, after seeing what happened to Kuroda.  I'd give it P(hike) ~= .6.  

Gold to fall.  In fact, short-term, I see no scenario which raises gold, short of a war.  It needs to reach oversold levels before the next ramp can occur.  There are fat new buyers coming in, and they want it cheap.  
Short term: Sell XAUUSD.  
Medium term, white metals to outperform:  Short XAUXPT, XAUXPD, XAUXAG.  
Long term, incredibly bullish: Diagonal call spread, short GCM6 1300 call, long GC7Z 1250 call, selling a new OTM call in June, rolling the GC7Z down to 1200, and then holding until overbought for 9 weeks.

EDIT: Suggested a delayed roll-down.

Just finished reading about MA. Unbelievable that people of that time could predict many events associated with the economy

FED's meeting next week, rate hike, or not?
Thoughts?

The mathematical point I am making is that the correlation can be quite strong when the time axis of gold or BTC is shifted such that they align better. Just slide gold along the time axis, and you see the correlation is much stronger. This sliding variable is another dimension. Armstrong's computer model does this automatically and not just over 2 dimensions, but unbounded dimensional search which is why it requires a supercomputer.

If two things are correlated by only a constant time-shifted, then they are correlated. If something always goes up with the other goes down, that is correlated and if the former always goes down again after going up thus predicting that the other will go up after it goes down. Then the longer-term downtrend since 2014 is dominant and mutually correlated.

President Trump or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Donald
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-threat-of-change/

ALL ABOARD THE TRUMP TRAIN!!!


Though it's hard to see everything, I think Trump does understand. I don't think any of this is any accident
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/139541975641/the-trump-master-persuader-index-and-reading-list

I said they are highly correlated if a smoothing filter is applied. Gold does a dead-cat pump, then BTC does, repeat. And the overall trend of the two is down since start of 2014 (gold's decent started 2011 but BTC hadn't yet matured and was in the early adopter phase).

The mistake of the above chart is the same reason that Armstrong's computer can detect patterns that humans miss. The above chart only considers one-dimension for the time axis. Whereas, my explanation has 2 dimensions for the time-axis.

When greece happened forthe first time in 2009 or 2010 it was the start of the decline i was there watching the chart.

If this is the start of the collapse, what would you call the EUR/USD decline that started in 2014?
Well, one could even argue that the collapse started in 2011, 2009 or 2008.
But most likely we will see nothing happen on monday and you guys will come up with a fancy explanation why armstrong got it still right.

good timing, I would say. It would help pushing the euro south and Martin predicted already years ago that on Monday next week the Euro would collapse or start to collapse. You should watch 1.0927 number for the closing of this week. When the Euro closes below that number, it would be bearish.

Update: Well, today - it looks like the opposite of a collapse    . At least one can say that something happend...
@dloghwak   I guess this one might be the final collapse. THere where several  major periods of decline in the last 7-8 Years.  The last one started in May 2014. This one might be the grand finale.

news from the ECB http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35774629

The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0% from 0.05% as part of a package of measures intended to boost the flagging eurozone economy.
The ECB will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.

how does it time with martin prediction?

MA watermarks his reports, just something to be aware of should the copy purchased by someone in the group "leak" it will be traced back to you.