Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 314. (Read 647196 times)

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38311

Why We Are Doomed To Repeat History?

QUESTION:

Martin, Why do citizens of a country continually allow their government to destroy the nation without putting up a “real” fight? You have given many examples and no one ever seems to fight until things get really, really bad and it’s too late.

Regards,

MLO

ANSWER: This is the sad state of affairs. People who do not believe we can forecast the future never look at the past. They are delusional to assume we have “free will” that somehow implies intelligence at a collective level. Some of us see the patterns that others will never see. The truth is the truth. The old saying that “a house divided will always fall” is very true. There are always two camps throughout history and they become the driving force between the rise and the fall of all civilizations, empires, nations and city-states.

Politicians become corrupt because we do not pay attention. We get mad only when it becomes intolerable. Then it reaches a boiling point and boom — revolution or war. It is rather disgusting that we cannot seem to escape this cycle for thousands of years.

This post is important, read it until it sinks in

The way it works is that you first decide what level of control you want to retain, and whether it is
- by charter
- by preferred shares, or
- by majority/required supermajority of shares.

Then you write the charter. Then you sell the shares up to the number you want. Then we have a 24/7 market where they are traded. If your project is perceived good, people will buy up the shares, and you can sell more if you have more monetary needs.

CK's own financing like this has allowed me to keep about 45% of the shares and accumulate 25% of the other assets in the game. It has been about a wash cash-flow wise and prevented me from working in another project for a year.

But I still have the 45% superminority of the shares, and they are worth $200k or something. A year ago I was where you are now, holding an infinitely powerful idea in my head worth billions, valued at $0 and owning 100% of it.

In 2013, I made $millions in BTC. It's at least possible that 2016 will become the first payout year from all I have done since the last BTC bubble.

Please consider what are the:
- contributions you need
- limits of influence you must retain
- money you require
- plan for acquiring more stakeholders to increase public skin in the game and rake money out yourself
- what the owners ultimately get.

That's a righteous suggestion! Ion exists as a currency inside a virtual economy .... cool!! Matrix anyone?

AltcoinUK, I am not going to set a threshold as high as $112,000 for the donation bounty on that one anonymity invention, even though I think it is a very significant feature. I am just stating what my earning opportunity cost had been inflation-adjusted from 2001. So hopefully the market will understand I am not going to give that feature away for $10,000.


Afaics, he has always been 100% accurate on the predictions that he labels as predictions, e.g. that gold would go down from 2011 to Spring 2016, that oil would crash from $100 in 2014, that Aug 23. 2010 would be the turn date for the end of the USA (the date Edward Snowden made his irreversible moves to expose on the NSA which is being reflected now in the desire to vote for any non-politician President and will later motivate the Patriots to civil war), that the stock market would continue rising from the August 2012 sell-off (with minimum potential 18,500 and maximum 32,000 - 40,000 depending on if making phase shift to private asset before or after 2015.75, which the later has been hence elected by nature), that 2015.75 would be the start of the Sovereign Debt Crisis Redux and would be much worse this second time coinciding with the turn up of the Cycle of War since 2014 and the expectation of hot war by 2017, etc, etc, etc.

When you refer to 50% accuracy, you appear to be referring to when Armstrong writes about the short-term trading timing models which are orthogonal to the macro-economic models referred to in the above paragraph. How many times have both I regurgitated and Armstrong written that PRICE and TIME are orthogonal in those models. Once you understand that if they are misused to demand a PRICE and a TIME, then they are only probablistic. Whereas, if they are used to try to understand the potentials of the market, then a savvy trader can have an overall probabilisticly higher ROI, i.e. not 50% because that would mean losses = wins or 0% ROI.

I am not sure if you intended your comment to be flippant or a compliment of the accuracy of this model in those cases where it was accurate (e.g. exactly turn dates to the day for various markets such as the Japanese market crash in 1980s, etc). But to the extent your comment was intended to be flippant on the 50% point, it would typical of those who come to this thread without any deep understanding and display their ignorance for everyone and feel smug about it. It is quite disrespectful to attack someone of his accomplishments and ethical love of mankind, without extensive evidence.

If you'd like to exhaustively document your claim, then go ahead and try. If you didn't intend the flippant interpretation, then please disregard my angst.

If this community - which profits many ways from crypto currency - unable raise that $100k-$200k to fund a developer like yourself then this whole crypto currency idea is absolutely hopeless (the fact that Bitcoin is having 100K user base after 6 years indicates to me that the concept is evolving into a losing proposition anyway).

Try to stay healthy, and I am sure we the community will sort out the financials to keep you going.
 

Very interesting post from Armstrong about the stock market today at http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2015/10

Any trader (at least I spoke to) feel what Armstrong summarized by saying: "So stay tuned. This is by no means settled in either direction. ". Indeed the market has been on the limbo by dancing with the Barcelona tiki-taka game for a week between the directions of up and down trends, and it has not been settled in either direction yet.

We also have clarification from Armstrong about the 17,735 value which we have been discussing with TPTB_need_war. That is now 17,760. He says break this resistance on a weekly closing would allow to run to the highs. Btw this value (17760) I believe is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 100%-61.80% segment of the 19th May high and 24th Aug range. So it make sense as well as what Armstrong says is very much in line with the expectation of most of Elliot Wave guys.

Armstrong says: "Our timing models show a potential high for this week.". Exactly that's what happened. Very good call. All of us were bearish 1-2 days ago and felt the correction is imminent. Instead of correction, now there is a prospect to continue moving higher for a several days. I will be long from here for a few days having hedge with November puts to minimize the pain. Pretty much free money, what can go wrong (hundreds of things of course, but never mind)

Is any stock market, wall street junkie like myself here who is following Armstrong and interested in this stuff? If yes then I will open a thread to discuss Armstrong's stock market calls as well as stock market moves, trades, ideas to take out this topic from this more generic thread.

Armstrong has a few interesting insights into the economy. Alternate views are always refreshing, and half the time turn out to be quite accurate... something scarily accurate

 
 
rpietila, sorry I haven't been able to participate in your Crypto Kingdom as of yet.  I think I am finally getting caught up on my projects, work, and personal life though and want to give it a look. 
 
Let's say I am finally about to put a bow on my fantasy novel.  How might I be able to sell and market it inside the world of Crypto Kingdom?  I know this is off topic, so please direct me to an appropriate thread to ask you about this or lets talk about it offline. 

They will release that information slowly, unless they face roll internet censorship fast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K0k361pQoQ


Anyone have any comments on this?

They passed it a week ago during the school shootings.

I had roughly 200 man hours (2+ weeks @ 14 hour days) in development time for that crypto breakthrough on anonymity, including the research, invention, and writing the white paper. I was able to work very intensely in some spurts during June & July and my gf can attest to that. It was August & September due to some egregious errors on diet and fasting that sent me into a tailspin on health (will be explaining this theory shortly).

My inflation-adjusted income earning capacity was $563 per hour. Thus fair value for that work just based on the hourly compensation is $112,600. I had to risk doing my work before compensation from the market for CoolPage. Ditto for this anonymity invention. So the risk weighted hourly rate is justified. If you get offered $100-$300 per hour for guaranteed compensation that is a different category. The very high rate is to compensate for the risk of not being ever compensated.

So now you can see why very highly paid developers do not work on crypto. They have the potential to earn much more money outside of crypto and crypto is too small to afford the best developers.

Crypto Kingdom has been able to raise about $100k in its history for itself. But few know how much it has been able to raise for others. More than 10,000 XMR has been donated to Monero development through it directly. More than a dozen companies have been started and they are now valued between 1,000 and 30,000 XMR each.

What if you establish your project in Crypto Kingdom and start fundraising there?

What is best, you can self decide the governance model that suits you. Consider the following. A random company I founded in CK with no prior announcement and no guarantee about any returns (in fact explicit mention that there are no voting rights, nothing should be expected in weeks, which is a long time in the game, and that I solely decide what will be received as dividends) has raised 1,100 XMR in 10 hours.

No red tape. Otherwise such small deals would not be possible.

This is prevalent through many disciplines, especially history. Other recent examples are the suspected unearthing of Sodom that Armstrong reported on. Also some formerly mythical cities off the coast of India (spires exposed as tide receded during Tsunami of 2004). Archaeology also steadfastly maintained there had been no megalithic sites over 12,000 yrs old - despite many anomolies in the different building styles of known sites (eg Incan, Lebanon etc). It wasn't until Gobekli Tepe received press attention that refuted the long held mainstream view. The main historical point here is particularly fascinating; because many of the accounts from history do not fit with modern academia they are pushed off to the side and labelled 'mythology'. It's probably time to revisit these accounts and treat them as historical records.

rpietila I haven't speculated on the price for months. You all just raised the issue and called out my name, thus more or less forcing me to clarify what I speculated months ago. For me it has been a closed issue in my mind since July. I had no plans to think about it more until the low in Spring 2016.

As for rebalancing or whatever, the higher your net worth, the less incentive you have to be aggressive with trading decisions, such as your move to sell $100,000 of silver and buy BTC at $10. That decision is why you are wealthy now. You do remember I concurred with that decision when you made it. We spoke in August 2012 and again in January 2013. In August I told you I was very ill and hadn't been able to fully research Bitcoin because of being sick basically all of 2012. In January, I told you I couldn't invest because my risk tolerance was absolutely to preserve cash for self-perservation. Sure investing at that moment could have alleviated my cash problem, but if it had failed then I wouldn't have made it to today with my savings. And today I have things to sell to the market, so my preservation was correct and worked. Just as your decision now to preserve balance is more correct than grabbing every speculation opportunity to increase your wealth out-of-balance (which is what made you wealthy).

Believe me I am working when my health allows me to. And there are results already that can potentially be sold to the market. I am not too optimistic that a donation model can sufficiently fund, but I am willing to test it and find out.

And the less often I need to post in the forum, then less time is wasted posting in the forum. Which is again why I have stated I want to stop posting.


No the start of the sovereign debt big bang.

And yes Russia started bombing in Syria precisely on Sept 30. This is the start of a proxy war between the great powers (USA, China, and Russia) to divert the public's focus from the sovereign debt collapse underway. Deutsche Bank declared a multi-billion loss within about a week of this turn date.

Well of course the thread is about trading advice, so I am in the wrong place.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin has its place in my portfolio, so extreme movements (going to $100 could be such) cause rebalancing.

Anything between that and $3,000 does not make my allocation of assets unsound, and thus does not cause any action.

Have you(p) noticed that constantly speculating about where some price is going and what to do, saps your energy away from productive uses? My worth is 7-figure yet I do not have time to speculate or earn money, I have more valuable projects going on now.

Any one who paid for Armstrong's gold report last year knows the predicted low has been Spring 2016.

I did write in klee's PnF forum after Bitcoin achieved my prediction from May of rising from low $200s to exactly $315 as I predicted, that it could meander and eventually go as high as $380 before I would be stopped out of a hypothetical short position projecting a low well below $150. Originally I was thinking the low had to occur by or just after 2015.75, but someone with access to Armstrong's gold report made me aware the target low is Spring 2016. I was originally thinking a stampede into sovereign bonds as the final peak in government would cause a liquidity crisis and gold/BTC would be sold off by 2015.75, but then after reflecting on this projection for a gold low in Spring 2016, it made sense to me that the liquidity crisis would coincide with the move out of bonds as interest rates in the USA start rising because that would reflect a stampede whereas the current move into the short-end of the sovereign bonds is orderly and expected reaction to the worsening economic signals out of Europe, China, Japan, etc.. The Fed delayed this move to 2016, right in line with that interpretation.

So yeah enjoy the bounce in private assets, but the liquidity fat lady hasn't sung yet. The wise will sell into the bounce.

P.S. again it is my intention to stop posting in the forum. If there isn't a series of post that basically calls me out by name, then I will be able to gracefully step away so I can focus on my pressing concerns about my health and entirely depleted savings (and no income and no form safety net to fall back on, not even family).

AnonyMint predicted that we first go up to $350 (where we should sell) and then down to maybe $100 or double digits. This was his conclusion by assuming that BTC is a commodity-like asset, and follows a specific pattern that M.A. predicted; which is a thought that (in part) I also share. I don't know if the fundamentals of TA agree (I rarely follow TA, except maybe when it's very short term).

Again, this remains to be seen, so if I were you; I wouldn't rush and point fingers to anyone just yet.

...

rpietila & darlidada

Yes, I too see that BTC has been going up the past few days.  Since I will not be buying any more, the price going up is a good thing for me.  

It will be interesting to see how BTC prices move vs. gold, vs. the US$ and vs. other assets (stocks, etc.).  Also will be interesting to see if BTC indeed goes to $150 (darlidada), although I have no idea of any timing.

tptb

Yes, I saw the beautiful coin at his article (and his remark on academic historians).  More evidence that Armstrong has been systematically ignored.  Whether Armstrong is right (or even 80% right) re his models and predictions, I do not know.  But, he makes interesting observations, is logical, and appears to have been very shabbily treated by .gov.

His big database ($1 billion?) is the only one of its type that I have ever seen too.


EDIT:

Steganography...  Sigh, one more damn thing to learn about...

Not according to Anonymint. Lowest point is well under 150, maybe even under 100. He says that until permabulls like you are humbled, the bottom hasnt been seen. And from what I recall, all his predictions are based on armstrong's blog

I don't know nothing about Armstrong, but even I know that 2015.75 WAS the armageddon, the low point of private assets.

Bitcoin IS now going up until the next trend turn.