Relating that 85-year delay to breakup to Rome's case...
First leading up to it:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/21370What took place during the fall of the Roman Empire offers another warning that we are seeing with the unions. There were precisely 4 x 8.6 emperors from the fall that followed Marcus Aurelius’ death in 180AD until the bottom in the collapse of the currency.
Notice the approximately 85 year delay from the Waterfall crash event of Rome to the point where not a single silver coin was minted:
That waterfall event corresponded with expropriation of private wealth:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35672The Roman Emperor Maximinus I (235-238AD) declared that all wealth belonged to the state. Spies were rewarded for turning in anyone hiding assets. The IRS also has its Whistleblower – Informant Award program. History repeats because governments are always the same – it’s just about them. Maximinus set in motion the destruction of the Roman economy. Once he began to hunt wealth, people hid it, and the economy imploded. We are in the very same process and in the USA; it is called FATCA.
Europe is hunting assets everywhere. Starting Sept. 30 /Oct. 1, 2015.75 (365 * .75) we enter the BIG BANG, and over the next four years things will go from bad to worse.
But note the collapse into chaos occurred within roughly 2 decades of the waterfall event:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/monetary-history-of-the-world/roman-empire/monetary-history-of-imperial-rome/217-270-adThis political disintegration came largely during the reign of Gallienus who was the son of Valerian I. Eventually, much of the Eastern provinces were lost to Palmyra and Postumus not merely took Gaul, but also Britain and Spain. The monetary system of this brief period demonstrates clearly the economic chaos that prevailed. The silver content of the double antoninianus plunged to the point that the coin had been reduced to a mere token bronze coinage that had been chemically plated with silver in a vain ttempt to maintain a silver appearance. This is quite similar to the collapse of the silver standard in modern times when silver disappeared from the entire world coinage between 1965 and 1968. In many cases, the silver coinage was replaced with nickel or in the case of the US, a clad coin with a copper center. Within a rough time span of 3 to 4 years, silver disappeared from the coinage of Rome as was the case in modern times.
The coinage under Gallienus is by far one of the most prolific of the entire period. It is also one of the crudest in workmanship. Both traits reflect the sorry state of economic and political affairs within the collapsing Roman Empire. Even the gold coinage suffered to such an extent that there appears to be almost no standard of weight. The range of the aureus appears to be 3.69 to 1.85 grams. The double aureus of this period is barely 60% of the weight for the aureus of Augustus – a mere 5.3 grams.
As is the case throughout history, economic instability promotes political instability. The massive collapse of the economy and hyperinflation no doubt contributed to the decline in political support for Gallienus who was assassinated by his own generals Claudius II and Aurelian in 268 AD.
Notice how after the chaos, Rome made one more military conquest and took back its territories:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/monetary-history-of-the-world/roman-empire/monetary-history-of-imperial-rome/270-294-adIt was during the reign of Aurelian when the relentless attacks by the barbarians came to a temporary halt. Aurelian also retook the East as well as the Gaul, Spain and Britain thus uniting the Empire to a large extent.
However it is interesting that the collapse of the coinage and politics preceded the peak in Rome's population in 400 AD:
It appears Constantine's adoption of Christianity was the moral support that enabled him to restore order in Rome after 312 AD:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/21099Constantine increased centralization and top-down control. He also increased the government spending on a new city and increased the size of the military. He can essentially be equated to the big government of FDR and every President hence:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/monetary-history-of-the-world/roman-empire/chronology_-by_-emperor/era-of-christianity/constantine-i-309-337-ad/the-legal-bureaucractic-reforms-of-constantineThus I see the feminism, humanism, socialism, Keynesianism, etc. are the West's new religion that enabled doubling-down on big government to drive the coming collapse since the peak for the USA as of April 2013.
Rome had a Protracted 224-year cycles before having a Collapsing 224-year cycle beginning in 180 AD:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/anatomy-of-a-debt-crisisThe century in which Caesar lived was the second 224 year phase of the Republic -the first was 492-268 BC culminating in the Punic Wars – from 268-44 BC that had culminated with the assassination of Caesar and the birth of another civil war that led to the new Imperial Age of Rome peaking with the reign of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD where the line is drawn by Edward Gibbon for the Decline and Fall of Rome.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/a-brief-history-of-world-credit-interest-rates/3847-2The fate of the Roman Empire of the West had been cast with the sack of Rome in 410 AD by the Goths...
By the year 622, the Arab nations were on the rise. They had conquered Egypt, Syria and Persia and in 669 they took Asia Minor by storm. In 698, the Arab armies captured even Carthage and followed with an invasion of Spain in the year 711. The Arab goal to conquer the balance of Europe was finally thwarted at the Battle of Tours in 732. Nevertheless, the Arabs controlled the Mediterranean, which had essentially cut off all trade in Western Europe. The economy diverted to one of agriculture and mercantilism died a quite death. Cut off from world trade, the Latin tongue began to disappear and the emergence of independent languages began throughout Western Europe.
This was the atmosphere that history has labeled the “Dark Ages” and while coinage existed, the lack of commerce and increased hoarding had seriously reduced circulation. It was the rise of Charlemagne that brought light to this dark period in man’s history. Much of the circulating currency was still old Roman coins. Charlemagne brought forth a great monetary reform that has survived into our present day. He introduced the “denier” which was a silver coin eventually referred to as a penny. Twelve of these silver pennies equaled one “sou” which later became known as a shilling in many parts of Europe. Twenty shillings equaled one pound.
The Capitularies of Charlemagne, circa 800 A.D., also dealt with the issue of credit. Undoubtedly, this legal code had been highly influenced by the severe inflationary trends and debt crises that had plagued the final years of the Roman Empire. The charge of interest on loans was strictly forbidden. It was during this period when the evils of excessive debt were viewed not only as destructive socially but as a sin under church law known as usury. Any exception to this view on charging interest remained highly controversial for the following thousand years well into the Middle Ages.
The tenth century was a period of slow advance. While much of central Europe did not benefit, the Venetians gained major concessions in trade from Constantinople and the uptrend in trade brought with it wealth. Moneylenders in Venice were actually respected while banking facilities re-emerged out of the need to finance maritime ventures. The Vikings began to settle back into the position of traders rather than raiders and secure a dominant role in maritime trade between Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the Arab power, that had dominated the previous century and brought about the Dark Ages in Western European culture, gave way to decay. By the eleventh century, the Europeans were pushing the Arabs out of Sicily and Sardinia. By 1096, the First Crusade had re-established Italian dominance in the Mediterranean once again.