Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 358. (Read 646804 times)

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Armstrong has picked up on our upthread theme that Westerners are humanists who think they are in control of nature:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35938

Why is it that I often wrote his blog posts for him in advance 

Thanks for the heads up! To be honest, I've heard about it from another friend, but never got the chance to read it. I'll look for it ASAP.

BTW: Today's the vote from the Greek parliament for Memorandum III. The IMF refuses to give more money if the debt doesn't get a haircut (they declared it multiple times now). News has it that there will be a deep schism between the SYRIZA party since most of the far left wing will vote against it (rumors claim that Yanis Varoufakis will also be against).

My guess is that we're heading for new elections within September.

...

macsga

That is a very interesting article, I recommend it to anyone interested in debt defaults.

Reinhart & Rogoff wrote a book (This Time is Different) on defaults over the last 800 years, IIRC they say much the same: that many defaults occur in clusters.  The book is just about an encyclopedia on sovereign defaults...  Highly recommended!

The most significant article I've read the last couple of days comes from Graciela Kaminsky on http://ineteconomics.org/. More or less she states that the last 150 years there were about 67 bankruptcies of countries. One third of them had something in common. They happened TOGETHER! Correlating the 1990s crisis with this one is totally bogus, since the two periods are completely dissimilar.

We cannot compare the Euro crisis to the crises in the 1990s in Asia, Latin America, Russia, and Turkey. The Euro crisis erupted in the aftermath of the financial panic in the United States in 2008, with international capital markets collapsing and the world economy coming to a standstill. In contrast, the crises of the 1990s erupted in the midst of highly liquid international capital markets with a healthy financial center and a growing world economy, with vulnerabilities only present in the crisis countries. Crises triggered by a meltdown in the financial center are different, but, what are the characteristics of these crises? And how do they differ from crises erupting from just home-grown problems?



TL;DR: Greece is only the tip of the iceberg. More countries are going down the drain soon. She also has a paper called “Systemic and Idiosyncratic Sovereign Debt Crises,” - you can find it here.

Complete article: http://ineteconomics.org/ideas-papers/blog/is-it-just-a-greek-problem

Synchronous, international default should void both any and every economic liability (i.e., both any and every “sovereign debt”) that does not serve the plutocrats.

TN;DC: A plutocrat seeks (at least, circa the present) to confiscate nongovernmental capital through “sovereign default.”

I corrected MA's typo and clarified his intent as follows...

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35858

MA's model was correct on India:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35864

I know of Miles Franklin. He was reasonably close with Jason Hommel, whom I had befriended in 2006.

He is correct about everything he wrote, except he is wrong about the Fed doing another QE and continuing ZIRP. The world's capital is going to be rushing into the dollar for 3 reasons:

• Safe haven.
• The world is awash in dollar debt (due to the carry trade & booming debt economics from the $trillions in QE), thus short the dollar, thus must buy dollars as their exports crash, meaning a spiraling up effect on stampede into the dollar. They will buy dollar denominated assets such as the US stock market driving it up past 32,000 maybe even 48,000 by 2017.9. You really should buy the DJIA at the bottom of the correction underway now.
• USA interest rates will go up, attracting more capital.

Gold bugs think the world will print away the debt obligations, thus QE forever. Nope. The debt is a noose TPTB designed to take control over the world with. They increased the debt with QE to maximize the control they get when they crash the global economy and the people will be on their hands and knees in deflation with matching totalitarianism and skyrocketing taxes and interest rates.

Why would the Fed do QE when the DJIA is booming and capital is rushing into the USA? They will use that opportunity to raise interest rates so that pension funds do not go bankrupt. The Fed did QE for domestic policy reasons. The QE ended up abroad as carry trade. The Fed caters to Wallstreet, financial institutions, and banks, not Mainstreet. This domestic policy excuse allows TPTB to turn the rest of the world into a debt-enslaved wasteland as the dollar appreciates from October 2015 to 2017.9.

You will beg for hyperinflation because what is coming is 100 times worse.

Note India and Asia (and perhaps all the BRICs and NICs) will bottom 2020 after a waterfall 4 year correction. After that, they will grow and become the financial center of the world by 2032. Because they don't have the social programs (unfunded acturial liabilities) that the West has and they have more youth than elderly. The elder Asia countries (Japan, Korea, China) can leverage the high birth rates in their junior neighbor and trading NICs nations.

Europe and the West will decline and decline and decline through 2032, losing their place in the world.

Regardless of the cause, he states some pretty solid stuff in there. He's definitely on an agenda of his own, but still...

I find it very hard to take any precious metal dealer's blog very seriously.

Well, we're certainly on track for the SHTF situation we've all expected for. To what extend, is certainly something we'd be better know sooner than later. Voices are yelling for the same thing though; it's not only MA anymore:

THE UPCOMING, CATACLYSMIC, FINANCIAL BIG BANG TO END ALL BIG BANGS

No, America won’t disappear.  However, it’s once global dominance will disappear in all but a handful of niche areas.  Which sounds not so bad, until one realizes its power stems largely from said “reserve currency”; and more importantly, the rest of the world’s five decade willingness to finance it.  In other words, 21st century Americans are living further above their means than any other people ever have – at a time when its finances, economic outlook, and political leadership have never been worse.  Which is why, undoubtedly, the “transition” from global dominance to mere ordinariness will be extremely painful – political, socially, and economically.  As for “King Dollar” – which in currency terms, trades at the equivalent valuation of a $100,000 hybrid automobile amidst plunging energy prices – all we can say is this.  Holding dollars instead of Precious Metals at prices well below their respective costs of production – in a world where Federal Reserve money printing is going parabolic (heck, even Bloomberg admits it) – can only be described as financial suicide.

[..]

In Europe, where the days of the unified Euro are counting down like a rocket at Cape Canaveral, we’re now told – seemingly, out of the blue – that not only will Greek “bailout #3” be completed in time to meet its August 20th €3.2 billion cash call from the ECB, but should be done by tomorrow – in roughly the $96 billion amount discussed since Alexis Tsipras betrayed Greece by ignoring the people’s decisive “OXI” vote.  Which, by the way, will cause Greece’s “published” debt/GDP ratio to surge from 175% to 200% – amidst an economy in all-out freefall; and its actual debt/GDP ratio, considering its €300 billion of “off balance sheet” debt, to explode above 300% – making it the most highly indebted nation on the planet.  Meanwhile, as Alexis Tsipras himself assures us such a deal is imminent, National Bank of Greece stock is trading near its all-time low; and paraphrasing the words of Finnish Finance Minister Timo Soini, who vehemently opposes said “bailout”, “we should admit this isn’t going to work.”

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-upcoming-cataclysmic-financial-big-bang-to-end-all-big-bangs

 

2015.75 baby! Right on time, here comes the acceleration.

Anyone still doubting MA's model.

Yes.  I just read that China devalued AGAIN tonight.

Exporting deflation.  I can hardly wait to see if our next bearing quotation from China reflects their devaluation.  If it does for small companies such as ours, then it's on like Donkey Kong.

Devaluation is merely an alternative maneuver to prevent the further inflation of another currency or currencies. Fusion of the national currency with that currency or those currencies (into a "basket currency") would seem a primary one. (Note: without "inflation à la carte," the N.A.T.O. cannot retain its "good standing" within the plutocracy.)

Nice point, but how much does the IMF care about foreign capital losses? (look at the Swiss removing their Euro peg). I'm not guessing why the IMF delayed the decision, but China can devalue now, behave later, and be comforted by the fact that they will be heading up the g20 next year and so reserve currency status is pretty certain for them (plus it helps stabilise their economy somewhat*)

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