...
I have been on vacation in recent days, and so not really following too much of what's up.
I do note that we are about to enter September, the end of which is likely to be interesting for those of us following Martin Armstrong.
But, I wanted to start a thread JUST on the whole 2015.75 notion as well as practical ideas re investment and perhaps even preparation.
OK, "peak government" I kind-of understand, peak government would be just fine with me either here or at the 2015.75 thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/it-will-soon-be-201575-whither-bitcoin-etc-1167734
Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 353. (Read 647196 times)
The market will raise the interest rates. The Fed is forced to follow. The market is moving into bonds for the speculative gains but once that peaks probably within September, the market will move into US stocks for speculative gains. That will drive interest rates up. Once rates start moving up in a speculative spiral, the 30 year sovereign bond trend is done. And government and socialism are done. We are in the end game.
Remember the rest of the world is short the dollar (QE carry trade). All international capital will flow into the US stock market. Private assets such as Bitcoin and gold will finally get a bid again after Spring once it is clear that the public assets abroad are dead. As the flow of international capital (and domestic mainstreet capital piling on at the end) peaks in 2017, the USA will go over the cliff and we go into an global hell of deflation from 2018 to 2020. Bitcoin and gold will likely rise incredibly high during this time as government desperately hunts down all capital it can find.
Remember the rest of the world is short the dollar (QE carry trade). All international capital will flow into the US stock market. Private assets such as Bitcoin and gold will finally get a bid again after Spring once it is clear that the public assets abroad are dead. As the flow of international capital (and domestic mainstreet capital piling on at the end) peaks in 2017, the USA will go over the cliff and we go into an global hell of deflation from 2018 to 2020. Bitcoin and gold will likely rise incredibly high during this time as government desperately hunts down all capital it can find.
Seems that during last week's dip investors didn't rush back to bonds, as is usually expected. Not sure where they put the money they withdrew (USD?) but this could be a sign of bad things to come for governments.
"one of the most surprising aspects of last week's market turmoil was investors' marked refusal to treat US bonds as a "safe haven". Usually, a bout of sharemarket volatility causes investors seek refuge in bonds, which has the effect of pushing up bond prices and sending bond yields sharply lower. But last week a different pattern emerged. After tumbling below 2 per cent on Monday, bond yields then spiked, with US bonds suffering their biggest weekly price drop in two months."
Because when EM's have to act to defend their currencies they sell assets, including US Bonds.
Some analysts warn that the pressure on US bond markets is likely to intensify as China tries to counteract the effect of heavier capital outflows. Analysts estimate US bond yields could rise by as much as 40 basis points if China sold $US200 billion worth of bonds. Even worse, many emerging countries are seeing their currencies come under pressure, in the wake of China's decision to devalue the yuan. As a result, they've been forced to sell foreign assets – including US bonds – in an effort to prop up their currencies and restore calm to markets.
http://www.afr.com/markets/market-data/bonds/us-bond-market-points-to-more-volatility-ahead-20150830-gjb3qh
Understand what China is up to (long-term) and why Asia will lead from 2020 forward:
http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/08/do-markets-determine-the-value-of-the-rmb/
http://business.inquirer.net/198183/china-premier-insists-economy-within-appropriate-range
Short-term they have a lot of deflation pain to go through to kill off the redundancy and waste in their economy.
http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/08/do-markets-determine-the-value-of-the-rmb/
Quote
Monetary freedom. The well-known “impossible trinity” makes it impossible for a central bank to control both domestic interest rates and the exchange rate if its capital account is open. Although technically not open, China’s capital account is porous enough for all practical purposes. This means that as long as the PBoC intervenes in the currency, it cannot provide debt relief to struggling borrowers, and to the economy overall, by lowering interest rates without setting off potentially destabilizing capital outflows. This constraint would be even tighter if the Fed began to raise interest rates. Reform of the exchange rate mechanism restores interest rate flexibility.
http://business.inquirer.net/198183/china-premier-insists-economy-within-appropriate-range
Quote
China premier insists economy ‘within appropriate range’
He added that “in the context of complex and changing situations abroad and deep-rooted problems at home, we pressed ahead with progress while ensuring stability with sustained efforts for structural reforms and targeted macro-regulation measures”.
“These included, among others, cuts in the required reserve ratio, interest rates, taxes and fees and measures aimed at stabilizing the market, which are already paying off.”
Li conceded that “now that the traditional drivers for growth are not as strong, it is important to come up with new measures to bolster reform and opening up. It is necessary to provide more public goods and services, and encourage mass entrepreneurship and innovation to boost the growth momentum”.
He added that “in the context of complex and changing situations abroad and deep-rooted problems at home, we pressed ahead with progress while ensuring stability with sustained efforts for structural reforms and targeted macro-regulation measures”.
“These included, among others, cuts in the required reserve ratio, interest rates, taxes and fees and measures aimed at stabilizing the market, which are already paying off.”
Li conceded that “now that the traditional drivers for growth are not as strong, it is important to come up with new measures to bolster reform and opening up. It is necessary to provide more public goods and services, and encourage mass entrepreneurship and innovation to boost the growth momentum”.
Short-term they have a lot of deflation pain to go through to kill off the redundancy and waste in their economy.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36655
Please everyone email this to Armstrong. His email address is: [email protected]
Can't he see what the above chart says? I have written about this extensively in the Economics Devastation thread.
This is the end of usury finance and debt. I have explained why in the Economics Devastation thread.
This is a momentous change for humanity.
Why do you think I am working on anonymous solutions we need in order to cross the chasm!
Please support my efforts. It is that damn important.
Quote
QUESTION: Dear Martin.
Does Socrates think the human race is doomed to be a failed species in the end because of this?
ANSWER: This is what we face about once every 300 years. Society can make it to the next step in our evolution if we at least understand what we are dealing with. Government is collapsing. They will fight fiercely to retain that power. That is what they want everything. This is exactly like Stalin – paranoid. They live in fear of revolution and are preparing for the worst. If we prevail, we can graduate to the next step.Yet so many people keep trying to drag us down condemning us to relive the past unable to see the future.
By no means are we doomed. Yet this is a real struggle.
Does Socrates think the human race is doomed to be a failed species in the end because of this?
ANSWER: This is what we face about once every 300 years. Society can make it to the next step in our evolution if we at least understand what we are dealing with. Government is collapsing. They will fight fiercely to retain that power. That is what they want everything. This is exactly like Stalin – paranoid. They live in fear of revolution and are preparing for the worst. If we prevail, we can graduate to the next step.Yet so many people keep trying to drag us down condemning us to relive the past unable to see the future.
By no means are we doomed. Yet this is a real struggle.
Please everyone email this to Armstrong. His email address is: [email protected]
Can't he see what the above chart says? I have written about this extensively in the Economics Devastation thread.
This is the end of usury finance and debt. I have explained why in the Economics Devastation thread.
This is a momentous change for humanity.
Why do you think I am working on anonymous solutions we need in order to cross the chasm!
Please support my efforts. It is that damn important.
The market will raise the interest rates. The Fed is forced to follow. The market is moving into bonds for the speculative gains but once that peaks probably within September, the market will move into US stocks for speculative gains. That will drive interest rates up. Once rates start moving up in a speculative spiral, the 30 year sovereign bond trend is done. And government and socialism are done. We are in the end game.
Remember the rest of the world is short the dollar (QE carry trade). All international capital will flow into the US stock market. Private assets such as Bitcoin and gold will finally get a bid again after Spring once it is clear that the public assets abroad are dead. As the flow of international capital (and domestic mainstreet capital piling on at the end) peaks in 2017, the USA will go over the cliff and we go into an global hell of deflation from 2018 to 2020. Bitcoin and gold will likely rise incredibly high during this time as government desperately hunts down all capital it can find.
Remember the rest of the world is short the dollar (QE carry trade). All international capital will flow into the US stock market. Private assets such as Bitcoin and gold will finally get a bid again after Spring once it is clear that the public assets abroad are dead. As the flow of international capital (and domestic mainstreet capital piling on at the end) peaks in 2017, the USA will go over the cliff and we go into an global hell of deflation from 2018 to 2020. Bitcoin and gold will likely rise incredibly high during this time as government desperately hunts down all capital it can find.
I believe they are going to raise interest rates in 2015. The FED is usually just following the markets and the markets are telling they should raise the rates.
Collapse is every where:
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f9ef95b8-2462-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/27/china-small-time-recyclers-down-on-their-luck-amid-stock-market-turmoil
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/aug/27/chinas-slumping-economy-a-bigger-threat-to-australia-than-its-plunging-stock-market
http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2015/aug/26/china-economic-slowdown-world-imports
It is not just the declines in the above article but the contagion and domino effects especially when the entire world is held up by massive debts. See in the first linked article how Chile is spending too much on socialism and projecting a rising GDP, but their GDP instead will fall.
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f9ef95b8-2462-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/27/china-small-time-recyclers-down-on-their-luck-amid-stock-market-turmoil
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/aug/27/chinas-slumping-economy-a-bigger-threat-to-australia-than-its-plunging-stock-market
http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2015/aug/26/china-economic-slowdown-world-imports
It is not just the declines in the above article but the contagion and domino effects especially when the entire world is held up by massive debts. See in the first linked article how Chile is spending too much on socialism and projecting a rising GDP, but their GDP instead will fall.
Adding to these, here's zerohedge on outflows from China & QE4
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/reason-chinas-crash-will-unleash-global-bond-shockwave
One point raised is that the Fed will lose credibility (confidence) if they about turn from a rate raise.
If that isn't evident after the diminishing returns of Qe 1,2,3, then there is this:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3472286-the-fed-spent-23-billion-in-3-days-but-still-had-a-hard-time-pushing-up-stocks
Collapse is every where:
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f9ef95b8-2462-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/27/china-small-time-recyclers-down-on-their-luck-amid-stock-market-turmoil
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/aug/27/chinas-slumping-economy-a-bigger-threat-to-australia-than-its-plunging-stock-market
http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2015/aug/26/china-economic-slowdown-world-imports
It is not just the declines in the above article but the contagion and domino effects especially when the entire world is held up by massive debts. See in the first linked article how Chile is spending too much on socialism and projecting a rising GDP, but their GDP instead will fall.
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f9ef95b8-2462-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/27/china-small-time-recyclers-down-on-their-luck-amid-stock-market-turmoil
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/aug/27/chinas-slumping-economy-a-bigger-threat-to-australia-than-its-plunging-stock-market
http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2015/aug/26/china-economic-slowdown-world-imports
It is not just the declines in the above article but the contagion and domino effects especially when the entire world is held up by massive debts. See in the first linked article how Chile is spending too much on socialism and projecting a rising GDP, but their GDP instead will fall.
Reading MA's blog, I'm learning something new or at least a new perspective everyday.
+1. Furthermore, he was spot on again with his 3 day bounce of the Dow Jones.
I missed that prognosis from him. Where did he say that?
It was in one of his blog posts, don't know precisely which one but I am quite certain I've read it.
@TPTB_need_war: Thanks for clearing up that first quote, at first (when reading his blog) I wasn't entirely sure how to interpret it.
Here is another voice that points towards the inevitable, this time from marketwatch.
China’s economy may be in worse shape than people think
China may be in worse shape than authorities in Beijing are willing to admit.
An analyst at Evercore ISI crunched the numbers and estimated that the Chinese economy actually shrank in July, suggesting that China’s forecast for 2015 is overly optimistic, if not unrealistic.
“Our proprietary Synthetic Growth Index (SGI) fell 1.1% month-on-month in July, and was also down 1.1% year-on-year,” said analyst David Straszheim at Evercore ISI.
“Even if we adjust our SGI upward (for too-little representation of services—lack of data), we believe actual economic growth in China is far below the official 7.0% year-on-year. And it is not improving.”
The SGI is a weighted average of seven components including railway freight, airline passengers, and electricity consumption.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economy-may-be-in-worse-shape-than-people-think-2015-08-27?dist=tcountdown
China’s economy may be in worse shape than people think
China may be in worse shape than authorities in Beijing are willing to admit.
An analyst at Evercore ISI crunched the numbers and estimated that the Chinese economy actually shrank in July, suggesting that China’s forecast for 2015 is overly optimistic, if not unrealistic.
“Our proprietary Synthetic Growth Index (SGI) fell 1.1% month-on-month in July, and was also down 1.1% year-on-year,” said analyst David Straszheim at Evercore ISI.
“Even if we adjust our SGI upward (for too-little representation of services—lack of data), we believe actual economic growth in China is far below the official 7.0% year-on-year. And it is not improving.”
The SGI is a weighted average of seven components including railway freight, airline passengers, and electricity consumption.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economy-may-be-in-worse-shape-than-people-think-2015-08-27?dist=tcountdown
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36592
So Asia will bottom 2020 and this will temporarily halt the collapse of the West. But after 2022, the West will continue collapsing. That is the way I interpret that based on information MA has provided else where.
From now the markets outside the USA are collapsing, but after 2017 the USA will collapse and the world will enter a panic cycle to 2020.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36579
So much for the Peak Oil idiots (yeah I used to argue with them too
) and other hard assets Mathusian fools:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36336
Quote
Our Forecast Array on the Yearly Levels warns of 2017 as a turning point, 2018 as a Panic Cycle Year, then a reversal of fortune into the bottom of the ECM for 2020 followed thereafter by a turn in 2022. So there is no TREND here as we look ahead. It looks much more like wild swings back and forth.
So Asia will bottom 2020 and this will temporarily halt the collapse of the West. But after 2022, the West will continue collapsing. That is the way I interpret that based on information MA has provided else where.
From now the markets outside the USA are collapsing, but after 2017 the USA will collapse and the world will enter a panic cycle to 2020.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36579
Quote
Why This Week’s Low is So Important
The Dow fell as far as it could possibly go without reversing the trend on a long-term basis, even technically. The low this week has been 15370.33. This has flirted with our Third Monthly Bearish Reversal at 15550, but we also have a simple technical point of great importance — 15284 — which happens to be last year’s low. Penetrating that number would open the door to a slide into March of 2016.
Consequently, penetrating this week’s low will be INCREDIBLY significant for it would set the stage for an OUTSIDE REVERSAL TO THE UPSIDE in 2016 that would be just about the worst type of PANIC you could possibly create. WHY? Because this would imply a total meltdown in government and the rush of assets from government paper to private assets would be like a building on fire with all the doors locked, except one [US stocks and US dollar].
Therefore, the prospect of only gold rising is simply gibberish. If we penetrate this week’s low, then the type of Phase Transition that follows will be the worst type that we could ever imagine. This would set the stage for the complete meltdown in government. This will become our greatest concern for the pendulum will swing to the extreme left [last gasp bubble in sovereign bonds] which will propel the swing to the extreme right [private assets]. This becomes totally insane.
The Dow fell as far as it could possibly go without reversing the trend on a long-term basis, even technically. The low this week has been 15370.33. This has flirted with our Third Monthly Bearish Reversal at 15550, but we also have a simple technical point of great importance — 15284 — which happens to be last year’s low. Penetrating that number would open the door to a slide into March of 2016.
Consequently, penetrating this week’s low will be INCREDIBLY significant for it would set the stage for an OUTSIDE REVERSAL TO THE UPSIDE in 2016 that would be just about the worst type of PANIC you could possibly create. WHY? Because this would imply a total meltdown in government and the rush of assets from government paper to private assets would be like a building on fire with all the doors locked, except one [US stocks and US dollar].
Therefore, the prospect of only gold rising is simply gibberish. If we penetrate this week’s low, then the type of Phase Transition that follows will be the worst type that we could ever imagine. This would set the stage for the complete meltdown in government. This will become our greatest concern for the pendulum will swing to the extreme left [last gasp bubble in sovereign bonds] which will propel the swing to the extreme right [private assets]. This becomes totally insane.
So much for the Peak Oil idiots (yeah I used to argue with them too
) and other hard assets Mathusian fools:http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36336
Quote
Oil will drop to the first support zone $31-$35. Breaking that level will warn that we should see a broader decline. It does not appear that oil will make new highs in real terms. Technology is shifting and oil will gradually fade in use over decades ahead.
Reading MA's blog, I'm learning something new or at least a new perspective everyday.
I recommend to watch the movie about him, The Forecaster. Not free, but one of the best £25 I have ever spent. You can get it on Vimeo. That movie is a nice tribute, and a very interesting one about this remarkable man.
Reading MA's blog, I'm learning something new or at least a new perspective everyday.
+1. Furthermore, he was spot on again with his 3 day bounce of the Dow Jones.
I missed that prognosis from him. Where did he say that?
Reading MA's blog, I'm learning something new or at least a new perspective everyday.
+1. Furthermore, he was spot on again with his 3 day bounce of the Dow Jones.
Reading MA's blog, I'm learning something new or at least a new perspective everyday.
You seem very intelligent; I would love to read more about your initiative.
(Seemingly, as one which would receive Einstein's instruction on quantum mechanics.)
(Einstein on quantum mechanics: "God does not play dice.")
You know, you make me think. Stephen Hawking probably spends much of his time online. He also probably doesn't care for the dick sucking contest that ensues (along with the upstarts trying to make a name for themselves by arguing with him) when he posts as himself.
Therefore it is highly likely that he has one or more prominent alts on various social media accounts such as Reddit. I also wouldn't be surprised to find him interested in cryptocurrency as well, if only for purely academic reasons. He also might not like the attention that his interest in cryptocurrency would bring.
In fact, I would venture to guess that many "screen names" you have interacted with in your time online may have belonged to famous and semi-famous individuals who just wanted to be judged on their arguments alone and not their reputations.
I'm not even very well-known, but even I have to stop and think before I post something: "is this something too extreme for americanpegasus to say?" You don't think I want to shit post sometimes too?
You seem very intelligent; I would love to read more about your initiative.
(Seemingly, as one which would receive Einstein's instruction on quantum mechanics.)
(Einstein on quantum mechanics: "God does not play dice.")
I am happy Monero exists. I support it (we've been using XMR.to for example). And if ever I produce something better, I hope the Monero devs join in the fun. We are all in this for the same reasons. No need to be exclusionary and selfish. There is plenty of profit and area responsibility opportunity for all who are talented. Let's go!
The fools will destroy you. And we need you to be strong so you can buy and use more of the correct crypto-coin, not throwing your capital down the toilet on GovCoin 2.0.
HODLer on fiat 2.0 and join the fools of the NWO at your own peril.
Now we filter the men from the boys.
HODLer on fiat 2.0 and join the fools of the NWO at your own peril.
Now we filter the men from the boys.
I didn't know you were anonymint. Neat.
I'm not going to shill Monero here - you should know where I stand with it: the first useful digital, private, decentralized ledger.
This crypto you are going to release is going to be significant because...? I assume it will be an independent code base, zero-premine/presale, and either use proof-of-work or a new type of proof? You seem very intelligent; I would love to read more about your initiative.
Don't ever forget Armstrong wrote this nonsense:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/21403
Just like how he thinks the Euro can not cause Europe to be federalized into one government.
The first step is the currency union, then that forces the control that rises to the centralized governance.
Greece is experiencing this. They are trapped.
This is the area where I strongly disagree with Armstrong. And I am correct. Feel free to email this to him. PLEASE DO! Flood him with emails on this.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/21403
Quote
These are two separate things entirely – a one world government and a one-world currency. If the conspiracy theory assumes one-world government is NECESSARY to have a one-world currency, that is DEAD wrong. It is impossible to ever get a one-world government because there are huge cultural differences between countries even when the language is the same – i.e. US, Britain, Canada, and Australia just to mention a few with the same language.
...
The ONLY political solution will be to create a independent reserve currency. This will be the result of the debt crisis for countries will have to default.
...
We do not need a one-world government to issue a one world currency. It would only be a reserve currency against which everything would then be measured. No big deal. That ends the political tensions and retains the sovereignty of a nation unlike the euro that has been a complete failure.
...
The ONLY political solution will be to create a independent reserve currency. This will be the result of the debt crisis for countries will have to default.
...
We do not need a one-world government to issue a one world currency. It would only be a reserve currency against which everything would then be measured. No big deal. That ends the political tensions and retains the sovereignty of a nation unlike the euro that has been a complete failure.
Just like how he thinks the Euro can not cause Europe to be federalized into one government.
The first step is the currency union, then that forces the control that rises to the centralized governance.
Greece is experiencing this. They are trapped.
This is the area where I strongly disagree with Armstrong. And I am correct. Feel free to email this to him. PLEASE DO! Flood him with emails on this.
Jump to: