Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 373. (Read 646767 times)

Perhaps study of Bosnia may be relevant.

Food scarcity would seriously affect western nations- it has been generations since they have experienced such hardship. Will this truly happen with advanced farming techniques and GMO though?

the future looks indeed rather grimm.
I'm interested in opinions on how that 33%-50% famine would play out. Would food prices simply rise until the bottom third can't afford the necessary calories? how much of an increase would be needed for it to get that bad? at what point does food scarity affect public order(when does it go from 'go to bed hungry' to 'starve because death squads are roaming outside')? would it be just another tv drama for eu+usa citizens or would they suffer too?

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Let me tell you all why I like reading Armstrong.  It is NOT for his predictions to be 100% right (as "our TPTB" notes above, predicting the future is hard).  It is NOT that he may/may not be working for the "real TPTB".

It is that he is full of ideas.  IDEAS!  I read items at his blog that I real nowhere else.  And who else is running a supercomputer to model all the different markets and indicators?  Such an obvious idea that I'm surprised that no one has done that before...

And while his blog is confusing (and even self-promotional), I suspect that his big-money customers get a lot of IDEAS (and probably specific investment recommendations) that they can think about.  And plan for.

Read and taken in this light, I think that "our TPTB" as well as Armstrong are worth careful study.  Both are right, IMO, a scary & bad time awaits.

Prepare.


Edit above in bold

Every 309 years serious shifts come. The end of the severe minimum in the sun spot activity was 1715. Thus 1715+309 = 2024 will be the start of a slide into a new minimum in sun spot activity.

Seriously bad shit can result.

We are headed into really bad and difficult times.

The main upside is we are more technologically advanced by now, so we can cope well if we get organized with the Knowledge Age.

Armstong did another piece on global cooling
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34854
and I don't really know what to make of it.
So that's allready factored in in all predictions?
these are worldwide numbers? Can someone translate that into a percentual price increase(range)?

This is a really bold comment from you, but if it proves to be true it would also explain a lot of things concerning his predictions. I remember having a private conversation about it IIRC. FWIW, I think you're somewhat wrongly posed AFAIC the way of the things to come. Progress, I'm afraid is indeed inevitable, but we must understand as a species that EVERYBODY is into the same vessel!

No one can escape a fate that it's been destined for the others... That alone should trigger a self preservation mechanism that will eventually overcome the destruction issues. Of course, there's always the chance that TPTB have already studied this scenario and they've prepared a plan B. And I don't rule out that B stands for Bitcoin...

Note I am re-posting this with corrections.

I was intending to not post any more, but I've got to address this some where publicly. I hope some of you email this rebuttal to Armstrong and get him to address my criticism.

I do not agree with the following analysis. Armstrong's models are correct, but he is incorrect about the existence of TPTB because for example he believes in a multi-polar world where Russia, China, and the USA are not actually complicit and not just pretending to be antagonists. He ignores all the proof that I've sent him that they are indeed fake antagonists who are controlled by TPTB. The data in his models can not capture this complicity between the world's axis powers.

What FDR effectively did was make the dollar undervalued relative to gold, thus the international bankers (whom he worked for) were who held gold were revalued upwards by double relative to the minions holding dollars after the gold was confiscated from the people.  And going forward to 1971, the dollar became ever more debased so international bankers were cashing dollars for gold at the fixed exchange rate. The depository domestic banks weren't holding the gold any where, they were fractional reserve systems. The gold was held at Fort Knox and whether it is still there or not, there are IOUs owed internationally so it is effectively not ours any more. Armstrong needs to read the essays of the late Howard Katz (the One Handed Economist) who explained that Americans were eating more butter, chicken, and had a higher standard of living after 1929 and before the New Deal was instituted. 1929 was a haircut for Wallstreet not Mainstreet. It was after the New Deal started that the real hardship began which by the time of WW2 it got so bad that woman had to go work in factories and no one could eat butter. The collapse of 1929 was a collapse of finance, but the basic necessities of life became more valued and thus production increased. My grandfather on my mother's side was walking around with a basket selling potatoes after 1929. Whereas the New Deal paid people to walk on crops and destroyed the farms exacerbating the Dust Bowls. One could say that perhaps FDR was induced politically to try to do something by the Dust Bowls, but what he did effectively was socialism of stealing private wealth, misallocating into public works programs, and overvaluing the dollar thus over decades sending all the gold overseas.

This doesn't mean I think gold can be money. You can clearly see it is a tool for the government and bankers to fund socialism and expropriate from the private sector.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34677


P.S. This myopia is also related to why Armstrong's proposed solutions for Greece and the sovereign debt crisis in general are untenable at best, and even if they could be implemented they would be a horrible result for mainstreet over the long-term, because all his proposals involve the centralization of power. I have explained why in prior posts about them. For example, the only way Greece could survive a GrExit would be with the access to international markets, but the axis powers are complicit. As for the debt for equity swap Armstrong proposes (sovereign debt exchanged for corporate shares), I explained in the past that this requires that investors have a fungible valuation of disparate companies. The only way that proposal is workable is if it is basically transferring a basket of all public companies to a single entity that holds all the debt, i.e. the TPTB. It is just same FDR gold swindle in disguise all over again. I really think Armstrong works for TPTB. He is advocating a one-world currency reserve and world domination by TPTB. That is coming and inevitable, and our escape is the Knowledge Age and our own decentralized, scalable, anonymous cryptocurrency.

I'm not betting against the model only your interpretation as it relates to BTC.

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Armstrong not only is good with the MACRO, but he painted on great picture of actual human suffering over there in Greece:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34665

When the elephants fight, there are often ordinary people who become victims and get squashed...

Martin Armstrong discussions are really good.  The models published by him are practical and compatible with today's reality. People who are investing should take a look at them. The links are pretty much mentioned in all the comments. I've participated in many discussions and they proved fruitful. They all tend to give you an idea of current market scenario.

yup, this is in tune with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSnReXI4gKk

Last year and 2013, Armstrong was saying real estate would be a safe haven and I was telling him no property taxes would skyrocket. Again I am correct and he is wrong!

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34662


And since 2010 I been explaining why EU would not break up and Greece will not leave. Again Armstrong will be wrong:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34521

Greece can't do that exit because the G20 would cut them off from the world (no trade, no money transfer in an out, remember Russia, China, EU, and USA are all complicit). And their economy would plunge into the Dark Age. And no one would migrate there as Armstrong dumbly assumes. TPTB have too much control already. The only way out is the people's (of the world) own anonymous, scalable cryptocoin.

The EU will consolidate the debts of all member nations but later once all nations fall into the same abyss. Until then Greece is locked inside.

Btw, on the cryptocoin front, I am going to have to embarrass the fuck out of the core Bitcoin devs who are also Blockstream devs (I tried being nice but they don't seem to like mutual respect and amicable sharing), because they are brow-beating tyrants who inhibit creativity and can't even see it (they are going to be shocked soon... mark my word):

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11819409

TPTB_need_war, I've just recently discovered Armstrong models and find them amazingly precise. Still it's a new realm for me, just made few daily trades from public available data. You have far more knowledge and experience in reading and trading the Forecast arrays.

I've found really much use in your explanation of market moves. Thank you for the time spent.

Could you clear the TIME targets, reversals with GAP's of SLV;GOLD and your estimated BTC points?  Hope to meet in WEC BRLN

Hey I am not going out on a limb like that. I don't purport to be able to call markets within such tight margins as that. I don't see any problem with missing a potential move from $294 to $315. And yeah better to not be greedy and lower the risk. And I wouldn't short until the top has been clear identified and we were on the way back down, unless you purchase very long-term short positions and want to position early where the price asked is lowest.

And again I can't give you 100% odds. Armstrong's models are guidelines, not stone casts of the future.

I spoke so very strongly against the prior poster, because his expectations are egregiously out-of-line with reality. You are instead asking about a more accurate prediction of the future, so there is more risk of being incorrect.

Anonymint, I'm going for a one week holiday tomorrow. I wont have any computer available. I'm thinking about putting sell orders at 294 as I think it would make sense we fail to break the 2 previous local tops of 315 and 303. What do you think of it ? I've been greedy in the past and I just dont want to be burned again. If we are at 300+ when I come back, I'll just short it.

You will learn the hard way not to bet against Armstrong's models.

I believe both of you are so incredibly removed from reality, that it boggles my mind.

Let me try to help you, and I mean that sincerely.

We are coming into a low for private assets[1] because for the moment the contagion in Europe is driving international capital flows (capital follows capital due to the wealth effect where Δ flow != Δ mcap) into the short end of the bond curve in the core EU economies in particular Germany (and away from the long-end and peripheral EU bond markets). October will be the bottom for private assets[1], after which they will begin to rise again as they did after their 2008 implosion (dollar and US stocks were making a phase transition from public to private alignment over this period).

So you will see radical bottom in gold and BTC roughly this Sept or Oct, probably south of $850 and $150. I am thinking possibly double-digits for BTC with $100 as a psychological barrier that is necessary to shake out all the fools who bought at $600.

New all-time highs for private assets will come in 2016 or 2017. By the end of 2017, the dollar and US stocks will fall away from private assets as the influx of safe haven capital will have peaked and the strong dollar will have choked off the US economy. Then USA will go over the cliff in 2018 being the last economy still standing in the world taking us into  global economic abyss of epic deflation.

Private assets will skyrocket after 2017, but they will also be hunted by the governments like mad dog Rottweilers munching on your arm (former US Treasury official, "we will burn the fingertips of goldbugs up to their armpits").

As for the manipulation thesis, it is utter nonsense. For example, Armstrong totally annihilated Fekete's backtwardation mumbo-jumbo, especially since Armstrong is the one who taught the Arabs to lease their gold to earn income to work around the anti-usury provision of the Islamic religion. Numerous other essays from Armstrong have explained why the nutter tinfoil hats are delusional about the manipulation argument. I don't have time to repeat all that. Do yourself a research favor.


[1] which includes the dollar, US stocks, gold, bitcoin, because these are all aligned now as safe haven juxtaposed against the European contagion, i.e. the dollar and USA will receive a stampede of capital fleeing Europe after the October 2015 BIG BANG explosion of the sovereign debt (loaned from EU banks) contagion in Europe.

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The key phase shift between gold and cryptocoin will likely come after 2017, when gold will be much easier for the Rottweilers to expropriate, steal, plunder, declare as Civil Asset Forfeiture, etc. See my upthread discussion with OROBTC (or just go to his profile and read his posts as he posts infrequently).

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TPTB wrote above:

"There absolutely will be a mad stampede into the short-end of the yield curve in bonds in Europe as the debt contagion LIQUIDITY CRISIS over there is unleashed over the next few months. When the Europeans return from summer vacations, all hell is going to break out over there.

There are a lot of Europeans holding BTC and when they need to raise cash because of the liquidity crisis that will be caused by the contagion, they will sell what is liquid."

Two very interesting points.  I will watch as hell breaks loose over in Europe.  August is their vacation month, and much of the place grinds to a halt.  Serious selling would start in September.

And, yes, in a pinch, they will sell what is liquid!  They need money, they will go for the easier-to-get money.  If I, however, were living in Europe (but with my asset structure as here in the USA), I would be buying BTC.  To take it with me, or at least keep "money" out of the hands of the safe deposit box raiding gangsters of Greece's .gov.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34394


I also in the past pointed out that Snowden made his final commitment to his plan precisely in April 2013 which marked the peak of the USA (which will break apart and not be united) in the other 224 year cycle of change in Armstrong's models.

Perhaps I am one of those "brilliant minds coming together". Not to be braggart, but I know the details of the work I am doing. I point that out not to boost my ego, but rather to offer it as evidence that I think Armstrong's model prediction of "brilliant minds coming together" may be correct.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34398