Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 370. (Read 647251 times)

Correct except (your math is slightly wrong and) you need to keep enough BTC margin in your account to guard against a margin call if the price moves up interim. I was originally going to short at $315 with $70 of BTC margin, but then I decided not to do it because:

1. I don't trust that Bitfinex might require KYC and I can not comply easily with that (my name is not on my billing address).

2. I don't 100% trust that Bitfinex's margin calls can move fast enough if the price gaps down instantly, thus causing a default. Don't 100% trust bitfinex won't get hacked. Just a very miniscule doubt that bitfinex isn't shaving coins.

3. I have so much upside on the coin I am developing (10,000+% gains), it is stupid for me to lose time and risk necessarily development capital on shorting.

4. Leave it for those who need it more than I do, so they can invest in my "Bitcoin killer" coin later

5. I sold into $dollars, which is a non-leveraged short position anyhoo.


Technically your balance is $1500, because you owe 5 BTC @ $300 per BTC.

Also you can hold your margin in BTC on bitfinex, and purportedly then you don't need to submit to KYC requirements even though you sold have also $1500 cash balance. Apparently only if you move fiat in or out of bitfinex from and to a bank then you need to do KYC.

Am I correct thinking short makes you more profit than buying back if things go well?

Buying back: sell 5 btc at 300, get 1500 usd, buy bac at 100, get 15 btc.
Short: you have 1500 usd on finex, you borrow 5 btc at 300 usd, you sell them on the market, so effectiveley you have now a 3K balance on finex, you buy back 5 btc at 100 for 500usd, you pay back the 5 btc, and you no have a 2500 usd balance on finex, or 25 btc at 100 (minus interests on the 1:1 loan)

Also, what are the risks ? Can you get margin called if price goes too high ? what is the % you should be safe gambling with and how do you calculate it?

@TPTB: are you gonna short it or you have more expected value elsewhere? im thinking about doing it, the trouble is finding the entry point and evaluating the daily interests and the counterparty risk because its gonna be a 3 months short

We have some news regarding Greece. IMF spokesman declared today that without a haircut, IMF won't be a part of the loan that Greece has asked. Maybe we will have some news until mid August about this matter.

TPTB_need_war: I REALLY am curious if you're correct on your BTC dump prediction (in sync with gold low). For the sake of argument, (and because I like to be the Devil's advocate) I'd say it would be difficult to see a new low for BTC. Here's a thought: I believe what we're now experiencing as 'capitulation' is the effect of this "dump" you're probably expecting. BTC is en route to higher levels.

Let's see who wins.

Absolutely! But it will be very difficult to convince people of that by then, because they will become so pessimistic since they've lost so much money. That is why I am trying convince wise people to stand aside now into dollar cash (not Euros!).

The multi-year bull market is coming because of a stampede into private assets after Europe starts to really implode in 2016. USA will strengthen as a safe haven from Europe until mid or end of 2017, then USA will also implode and private assets will go very high after that.

Don't give up on crypto-currency, just realize this is a market dominated by speculation and thus this speculative downside is coming. Also crypto-currency is still maturing. Bitcoin is not the final answer. Trust me on that insight as I am doing the technology myself.

I am just curious, do you think that after final capitulation BTC (& other cryptos) will start a new multi-year bull market?

I placed my capitulation about $385 - $400. Above $400 I am definitely wrong.

no time to go back and read your posts now.. will watch and remember this one. So if nothing happens (bearish) on week of aug 10 then you are invalidated (or we get above $400).

Is your predicton invalid if we get above $315?

You should review my record (courtesy of Armstong and my interpretations). I have called every major move in BTC since $1000.

For example, in May I posted all over the place in these forums predicting a rise in summer to $315 and then a fall back below $150.

Did you not see my silver prediction in 2010?

I am a sort of prophet.

Wow! Armstrong confirms the low in gold will likely be in the $600 - $700 range! Yikes   Armstrong wrote recently how that near the low, even the former bulls are borrowing gold to sell it short, which is what drives the extreme low.

Ditto BTC, they will sell that fucker short down to double-digits. You've been warned. Once the momentum gets rolling to the short direction, you will see the same overshoot to the downside that we saw on the overshoot to the upside to $1000+ for Bitcoin. It wasn't easy to borrow short on the way up to $1000+ which may have contributed to why the price was able to overshoot so much. Now it is very easy to margin sell short with one-click on bitfinex and if you don't exchange fiat in or out of bitfinex then apparently you don't even need to give them an id (no KYC in that case apparently). I can't offer any assurances on the stability of bitfinex policies nor on whether they can remain solvent in a market that moves too fast.

Want some free money? Short gold and BTC with a several month timeline.

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):



By deflation he means that deflation is not confined to a decline in prices (which itself isn't even confined to only be caused by contraction of M or V in the Quantity Theory of Money), but also can be due to a contraction in economic activity caused by debt overload and its ramifications such as government raises taxes to gain revenue to service the egregious debt load.

Stagflation (de-inflation) can occur when the economic activity is contracting and the production of certain goods is contracting faster. This can happen for example because China was doing all the world's manufacturing and was operating on negative profits due to carry trade in debt, so when the tide goes out we see that cost of manufactured goods was the most naked.

Edit: add the timing on the collapse of the Euro:

new article about gold http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35296

@TPTB: can you explain what armstrong exactly means by "deflation" ? at college i learned it was the decrease in price. i know some use it as a decrease of the monetary supply too. but armstrong use a totally different definition, and from what i gather from his latest article on gold, it something like a decrease in the monetary supply available to someone

for him, it seems an increase in taxation implies deflation

can you expand on this ?

The coming Little Ice Age:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35288

Being pretty busy with the university right now; I really want to talk to the guy but I'm not sure he will reply to me once he figures out that I may have a clue on how he makes his predictions. Besides, I'm not 100% sure he's for real. I know the Physics behind it, I know the Math, but... let's say for the sake of argument, I keep a 1% he's a part of TPTB (or he has inside info).

I promise you though, I'll ring a bell when I have the time to put together a nice letter for him.

Please email Armstrong. He has coded his model with a myopia that isn't detecting such statistical anomalies. Thus his myopia.

My fuzzy logic engine had worked out probabilities over years of observation, but your example is much more incisive. Kudos.

I posted it yesterday on another forum, but I think it's significant enough for cross-posting :

Let's say that the Greek gov't had (phenomenally) two choices. The first one was the USA/EU camp, the other was BRICS. What do you think happened there? To have a vantage point of the situation, let me present you some more facts in the timeline.

1. The EU summit had happened where mrs Merkel first outspoken the Grexit scenario.
2. Tsipras at the time was with Putin at St. Petersburg talking about how epicly wrong mrs Merkel was.
3. Eurogroup summit - Varoufakis had been abolished.
4. Referendum - 62% vote for no austerity measures.
5. Tsipras agrees to more austerity measures and a 3rd Memorandum for Greece.

What I see by watching all these facts, is that the Greek government never had a choice. Putin has offered something pro bono (the pipe) in exchange for Greece's friendship (and for being the middleman) towards the EU (Greece's veto for Ukraine was a nice gift). Everybody knows that he needs the EU because of their enormous energy needs. He has the gas, he needs clients. Fortifying his stance against the EU by taking Greece with him, would've been utterly wrong and he knew it.

China on the other hand would've been a nice alternative. Now, please take some time to judge what happened in China and PRECISELY WHEN! 25 Greek debts were eliminated in their stock exchange. Turkey (!) offered to buy the Greek debt too. Funnily enough, they can't form a government and today they had a suicide attack within their territory with 25 dead.

Now, here comes the question: Do you believe ALL the above happened by pure luck or coincidence? What are the odds?

The charade was by design:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35241

Is Armstrong starting to realize they knew all along?

I could not agree more. Here's a nice article from zerohedge I've read last night.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/tsipras-asked-putin-10-billion-print-drachmas-greek-media-reports

This pretty much concludes to what I had in mind all this time (and pretty much agree with you TPTB_need_war). That Putin is in the same game with the rest of the "gang". Well... it's crystal clear:

If confirmed, first and foremost look for a growing schism between Europe and the US (which has clearly been pushing Merkel's buttons via the IMF's ever louder demands for a debt haircut not to mention Jack Lew's rather direct intervention in the Greek bailout negotiations) and an increasing sense of friendly proximity between Berlin (and Brussels) and Moscow.

The biggest loser in this game of realpolitik, once again, are the ordinary Greek people.