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Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 374. (Read 646767 times)

sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 257
July 03, 2015, 02:33:41 PM
#22
I am looking forward to Armstrong's comments re Greece tomorrow and the near-future.

I think I understand this better than Armstrong does.

Perhaps the Troika will use the big stick of capital controls to induce the Greeks to vote for the Troika's bailout terms which contains a few carrots with more austerity.

The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.


Remember my prediction in 2010 in the "Understanding Everything Fundamentally" essay.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html#europe

"Coase’s theorem says that an inefficient internal order will continue for as long as there remains an unavoidable frictional barrier insulating it from the more efficient external possibilities. The fundamental reason the EU crisis will not result in a disintegration of the union, at least not until its people significantly abandon collectivism, is that organisms which are unable to comprehend the mechanism by which they are consuming resources faster than their ecosystem can replenish, thus are unable to stop the mechanism before they perish. So the implosion of the friction and thus the order only occurs when they perish, because they will continue to repeat the mechanism which they do not understand to be a cause of their suffering. This can be verified in a petri dish, as an organism will reproduce until it consumes all of its food or oxygen."

Yet another in my growing list of "I told you so". Armstrong finally starting to realize what I told him years ago, that the Euro was designed from the beginning to federalized Europe.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34228

Quote
You Can Check-In for the Euro – But You Can Never Leave

...Brussels has a hidden clause that shows from the very beginning this was a covert action to federalize Europe displacing democratic institutions from the top down...

...This Article 352 allows the EU to wage economic war on any member state to force its will upon the people regardless of what they vote. This is an amazing authoritarian view for this is not just about maintaining a single currency, it is now all about centralized power. The EU is now in a position to carry out coercive measures against Greece that are completely outside any legal framework.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/02/business/international/greece-bailout-tsipras.html

Quote
With its banking system shut down and access to further aid cut off, Greece faced the prospect of further debt defaults...

...Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany made clear on Tuesday that she favored waiting until after the Greek referendum on Sunday to reopen talks, and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, repeated that message on Wednesday after news of Mr. Tsipras’s letter became public.

I told you so:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34268

Quote
In a TV interview, Mr. Varoufakis said very clearly, “This is a very dark moment for Europe. They have closed our banks for the sole purpose of blackmailing what?

...

The Troika deliberately closed the banks to punish the people of Greece, and to show them what exiting the euro means. This appears to be their only way of diverting the crisis with orchestrating a fake “YES” vote to economic suicide. The Troika will attempt to rig the referendum as they did with the Scottish elections.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34373

Quote
EU Openly Wants To Overthrow the Greek Government

The Deutsche-Wirtschafts-Nachrichten is reporting that the head of the EU and Merkel are now openly calling for the overthrow of the Greek Government. It is their way or no way. To defend a failed Euro, they will not tolerate any democratic process that disagrees with their vision of a federalized Europe. This is World War III, just in economic domination coming from Brussels.

The President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, has stated that holding new elections in Greece is now mandatory when the people vote for the reform program of the creditors. He insists that any relief for the Greeks, which is blackmail keeping their banks closed, will be bridged with a technical transitional government until elections are held that approve only their candidates, and that this will be a requirement of further negotiations. “If this transitional government is a reasonable agreement with the donors, then Syriza time was over. Then Greece has another chance, ” said Schulz. This is outright dictatorship for not a single member of the Troika is elected by the people including the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde.

We have been forecasting a Crisis is Democracy would emerge by 2015.75 back at our 1985 conference. This is just how all societies collapse. Unfortunately, well – it is here.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 257
July 02, 2015, 08:22:50 AM
#21
Throwing all the Martin Armstrong related posts here, that kLee deleted from his PnF thread in the Speculation subforum. I think this commentary is too valuable to be lost from the public eye. Thanks to kLee for creating this extra work for me.




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PnF looks promising though.

huh  Huh

Let kLee fool himself so he can learn the hard way, but I thought you were based in mathematical facts not superstitution.



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TPTB with all the respect to you and Armstrong can we keep this thread PnF related?

I will leave, but before I go I want to point out that PnF and other technical anal-sis, is useless. Quoting Armstrong's energy model points out why that is the case (thus on topic). I've helped you make some money which you desperately need given your illness.

Any way good luck, I will not post in your threads again.



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I will LMAO when we breach $300 and then stabilize above it never to see below again.

If we move significantly above $400, then you can LMAO with confidence. Otherwise, you are very likely to be the greater fool, based on Armstrong's thesis of public vs. private assets and the timing of the coming contagion in October as I explained upthread.

Remember capital flows chase capital flows, because of the wealth effect (i.e. the market price and thus market cap > the capital invested). Thus when the stampede is in a certain direction, capital follows there and out of where it was. Then you have to add the margin calls and leverage induced liquidity contagion that exacerbates the effect.

Has Armstrong specifically stated anything about future BTC predictions? That would've been a nice incentive for me to buy his "Socrates" S/W. Smiley

Afaik he makes only predictions regarding to gold. And Anonymint treats gold and bitcoins the same way, as private assets.

Afaik he has written about private assets as a class of assets, not only as gold. He has explained how the US stock market has apparently phased shifted and moved recently from being aligned with public assets to alignment with private assets, which is why it is moving into a low for October instead of a blowoff peak. Back in August 2012 when he predicted a doubling or tripling of the US stock market, he made it clear that this could either come before October or in 2017, depending on whether the stock market phased shifted or not. By now, he is reasonably certain it has phase shifted. The USD has also aligned with private assets for the period 2015.75 to 2017.95. After that 2017.95, all hell will break loose, pandemics, global war, etc.. and the USD is toast.

He has not written about Bitcoin except to say he hates cryptocurrency and thinks it is doomed. I dismiss this as myopia on his part because his global flows models can't pick up on such small caps and he hates it because he thinks all cryptocurrency is associated with the move to electronic money totalitarianism and he also looks at it as a false hope at odds with his "Solution Conference" solution (debt for equity swaps).

It is possible that Bitcoin is off in its own world and has no correlation to other private assets. I strongly doubt it.

The speculative ramps for Bitcoin in 2011 and 2013 correlated with those in gold and silver. Bitcoin has been aligning itself with private assets, just with more speculative volatility because it was such a small market cap.



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trading is so easy when we have a machine that predicts the future and you guys to translate its data Cheesy thanks!

Yw, but remember one has to be cautious until the market has confirmed. Looks like we have confirmation now.

So many people saying I am insane or am on ignore. Hopefully insanely rich and peacefully ignored, lol.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34170

The risk you are failing to attribute to gold is that you won't be able to find any where to sell it.

The government will close down all black markets when they move us to electronic money.

Black markets can only exist where the mainstream money is not trackable. Ponder that.

Your only chance to not lose all your wealth will be an anonymous crypto-currency. Remember I warned you and you didn't listen.

Why would someone who has anonymous crypto-currency want to trade it for gold wherein they risk their anonymity in a sting operation. Duh.




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Silver is headed below $12 and gold below $1050.

The reason for that is the strong Dollar.

No. You will see the private assets rise with the dollar after October.

The reason is because there is a mad rush into the short end of the bond curve in Europe as the contagion there develops into the BIG BANG in October (which btw has been predicting by Armstrong since 1985 when he first published his model's prediction!).

Understand that capital chases capital, because it heads where the prices are rising the fastest.

So this is sucking capital out of other assets.

Also during a contagion, the most liquid (not leveraged assets) are sold first.

This coming low in private assets is to set up their massive rise after the BIG BANG in October.




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The mad rush into short end of the yield curve for safe haven in bonds will be the peak of government Oct 2015 (i.e. public assets), which will be a low in private assets (i.e. stocks, gold, Bitcoin).

After that we in the crazy global sovereign debt collapse and private assets will rise like crazy.

For the moment we are having a seasonal summer bounce in private assets to suck in all the greater fools before the collapse into the low Oct 2015. Of course it is possible that this summer rally already peaked. I was thinking more to $315, but it doesn't have to be. I still think it will, to pull in more "Bitcoin to the mood types".

Quote
The WEC will be critical to surviving what comes next, not just a single day. The crazy period we face is 2015.75 into 2017.90.

We have been warning that we may see a Phase Transition in equities BEGIN with the 2015.75 and the FALSE MOVE. But this should be the PEAK in government – NOT the peak in markets outside of interest rates.

I am really curious how it will play out. Your point makes sense in my eyes, i am just not brave enough to sell my coins in hope to buy back significantly lower. These are very interesting times.

The best (safest) choice right now is to HODL and wait. I've no intention on moving even a tiny bit.

I will be selling every BTC I own if we hit $300. And doubling my BTC when I buy back below $150.

I can't promise that of course, but I've watched Armstrong's model over the years and it has always been correct (if you understand how time and price are orthogonal and you need to weigh other factors in the model). For example, it predicted the closing price for oil Dec. 31, 2014 at $54 back when oil was $100+ and no one was expecting the collapse.

There absolutely will be a mad stampede into the short-end of the yield curve in bonds in Europe as the debt contagion LIQUIDITY CRISIS over there is unleashed over the next few months. When the Europeans return from summer vacations, all hell is going to break out over there.

There are a lot of Europeans holding BTC and when they need to raise cash because of the liquidity crisis that will be caused by the contagion, they will sell what is liquid.

Must read:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33799

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33843

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/33837

P.S. my resolve is aided also by the fact that I am working on an altcoin and think I will see a lot more upside there than I ever will with BTC, thus I my perspective on BTC is as more a savings account and not an investment (relatively speaking). This removes a lot of the "Bitcoin to the moon" emotion that clouds the rationality of others. They are too married to their investment.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
July 01, 2015, 12:19:44 PM
#20
Quote
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34083
It appears that a June closing on cash below 11095 in the Euro will reflect GRexit. ...
closing was above that.
google gave me several slightly different values for this, what is the canon data source for these predictions?
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 257
July 01, 2015, 07:04:53 AM
#19
macgsa,

Here is more info on Armstrong's models. See for example the Energy Model which is claimed to be an improvement on one-dimensional oscillators or stochastic indicators.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models

P.S. Don't tell iCebreaker, he might blow a fuse.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 257
July 01, 2015, 06:45:37 AM
#18
I am looking forward to Armstrong's comments re Greece tomorrow and the near-future.

I think I understand this better than Armstrong does.

Perhaps the Troika will use the big stick of capital controls to induce the Greeks to vote for the Troika's bailout terms which contains a few carrots with more austerity.

The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.

Remember my prediction in 2010 in the "Understanding Everything Fundamentally" essay.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html#europe

"Coase’s theorem says that an inefficient internal order will continue for as long as there remains an unavoidable frictional barrier insulating it from the more efficient external possibilities. The fundamental reason the EU crisis will not result in a disintegration of the union, at least not until its people significantly abandon collectivism, is that organisms which are unable to comprehend the mechanism by which they are consuming resources faster than their ecosystem can replenish, thus are unable to stop the mechanism before they perish. So the implosion of the friction and thus the order only occurs when they perish, because they will continue to repeat the mechanism which they do not understand to be a cause of their suffering. This can be verified in a petri dish, as an organism will reproduce until it consumes all of its food or oxygen."

Yet another in my growing list of "I told you so". Armstrong finally starting to realize what I told him years ago, that the Euro was designed from the beginning to federalized Europe.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34228

Quote
You Can Check-In for the Euro – But You Can Never Leave

...Brussels has a hidden clause that shows from the very beginning this was a covert action to federalize Europe displacing democratic institutions from the top down...

...This Article 352 allows the EU to wage economic war on any member state to force its will upon the people regardless of what they vote. This is an amazing authoritarian view for this is not just about maintaining a single currency, it is now all about centralized power. The EU is now in a position to carry out coercive measures against Greece that are completely outside any legal framework.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/02/business/international/greece-bailout-tsipras.html

Quote
With its banking system shut down and access to further aid cut off, Greece faced the prospect of further debt defaults...

...Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany made clear on Tuesday that she favored waiting until after the Greek referendum on Sunday to reopen talks, and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, repeated that message on Wednesday after news of Mr. Tsipras’s letter became public.
sr. member
Activity: 268
Merit: 256
June 29, 2015, 05:59:47 PM
#17
Today there are two groups of Scots: Unionists;
and those who feel they have been well and truly shafted by Westminster.

Mostly by sins of omission, like omitting to mention that the fracking rights
had been sold off the week before the referendum, or praising the industries
involved in green energy, and omitting to mention the plans to slash the
budget subsidy. These omissions seem to roll out every week since the vote.

The clincher though was fear. The whisper ... that pensions might be at risk
in an independent Scotland.

That particular fear factor will not work in Greece, because the Troika have
already made their intentions plain. But there are others.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 257
June 29, 2015, 04:17:28 PM
#16

The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.


As much as I loathe to pick over the smallest, and seemingly trivial, point raised in the inexorable and revelatory car crash monologue that is TPTB/Anonymint/Coincube/Martin Armstrong on BitcoinTalk, could I just be so bold as to ask you to expand on this point a little.

    Just for those of us that aren't in the know or in with the "in" crowd - or geniuses perhaps - for those of us like my poor humble ass self for eg .

    As you know, the devil is in the detail, so I'd be glad for you to flesh it out a bit.

   Thanks man.

In case you weren't aware of the allegations of massive voter fraud (including some Youtube evidence of vote counters doing massive fraud) in the Scottish vote for independence.

In case you weren't aware of the promises made and scare tactics employed in the mass media to keep the sheepeople dependent.
full member
Activity: 196
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hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
June 29, 2015, 02:17:28 PM
#14

The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.


As much as I loathe to pick over the smallest, and seemingly trivial, point raised in the inexorable and revelatory car crash monologue that is TPTB/Anonymint/Coincube/Martin Armstrong on BitcoinTalk, could I just be so bold as to ask you to expand on this point a little.

    Just for those of us that aren't in the know or in with the "in" crowd - or geniuses perhaps - for those of us like my poor humble ass self for eg .

    As you know, the devil is in the detail, so I'd be glad for you to flesh it out a bit.

   Thanks man.



legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
June 29, 2015, 12:10:09 PM
#13
Quote
I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial).
I can't really discuss grand strategy but we could start with using this thread to keep track of his predictions.
Quote
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34083
It appears that a June closing on cash below 11095 in the Euro will reflect GRexit. A month-end closing for June below 10520 level will be very bearish short-term. However, keep in mind that the major Bearish Reversal lies down at the 10335 level. Therefore, only a monthly closing BELOW 10335 will CONFIRM the 11500 is the extent of any rally.
...
Until we see a monthly closing BELOW 10520, then it remains possible that we could still exceed the 11500 level. A monthly closing BELOW the 10335 will confirm the high is in place and signal phase two will begin with the Euro falling below the 80 cent level relative to the US dollar.

iirc, main prediction is for an event to take around Oct 1. Be interesting to see, in light of current events, whether this is on target.
hero member
Activity: 723
Merit: 503
June 29, 2015, 10:42:47 AM
#12
Do you guys know how to read that kind of chart ?

sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
June 29, 2015, 05:56:14 AM
#11
Criminal Conviction: On September 29, 1999, Armstrong was indicted by a federal grand jury for having conspired with employees of Republic New York involving Japanese investors. Republic New York pleaded guilty to fraud in federal court on December 17, 2001 and agreed upon a restitution order on January 9, 2002 of $606 million.

Should I believe this ? : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 257
June 28, 2015, 07:56:49 PM
#10
I am looking forward to Armstrong's comments re Greece tomorrow and the near-future.

I think I understand this better than Armstrong does.

Perhaps the Troika will use the big stick of capital controls to induce the Greeks to vote for the Troika's bailout terms which contains a few carrots with more austerity.

The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.

Remember my prediction in 2010 in the "Understanding Everything Fundamentally" essay.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html#europe

"Coase’s theorem says that an inefficient internal order will continue for as long as there remains an unavoidable frictional barrier insulating it from the more efficient external possibilities. The fundamental reason the EU crisis will not result in a disintegration of the union, at least not until its people significantly abandon collectivism, is that organisms which are unable to comprehend the mechanism by which they are consuming resources faster than their ecosystem can replenish, thus are unable to stop the mechanism before they perish. So the implosion of the friction and thus the order only occurs when they perish, because they will continue to repeat the mechanism which they do not understand to be a cause of their suffering. This can be verified in a petri dish, as an organism will reproduce until it consumes all of its food or oxygen."
legendary
Activity: 2828
Merit: 1792
June 28, 2015, 06:53:25 PM
#9
...

I was only five years behind you, TPTB!  I got out in 2008 right before the big storm hit.

Retirement accounts are one of the last "Big Pots of Easy Money" for .gov to steal.  If my figure is correct, that is over a trillion dollars.  That would cover the budget deficit for two years (not counting budget tricks).

I am looking forward to Armstrong's comments re Greece tomorrow and the near-future.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 257
June 28, 2015, 06:20:46 PM
#8
...

"Obama is Targeting Your Retirement Accounts"

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31455

From today.  I cashed-out my IRA several years ago, thinking that .gov might just try this sort of thing.  IRAs and 401k's are easy targets.  Beware.

I cashed out in 2003, thinking it was coming. I wrote about it coming in the Jason Hommel forum in 2007. My thinking is usually so far ahead of others.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
June 28, 2015, 12:49:19 PM
#7
Quote
I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial).
I can't really discuss grand strategy but we could start with using this thread to keep track of his predictions.
Quote
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34083
It appears that a June closing on cash below 11095 in the Euro will reflect GRexit. A month-end closing for June below 10520 level will be very bearish short-term. However, keep in mind that the major Bearish Reversal lies down at the 10335 level. Therefore, only a monthly closing BELOW 10335 will CONFIRM the 11500 is the extent of any rally.
...
Until we see a monthly closing BELOW 10520, then it remains possible that we could still exceed the 11500 level. A monthly closing BELOW the 10335 will confirm the high is in place and signal phase two will begin with the Euro falling below the 80 cent level relative to the US dollar.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1001
legendary
Activity: 2828
Merit: 1792
June 08, 2015, 04:12:25 PM
#5
...

"Obama is Targeting Your Retirement Accounts"

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31455

From today.  I cashed-out my IRA several years ago, thinking that .gov might just try this sort of thing.  IRAs and 401k's are easy targets.  Beware.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1001
June 07, 2015, 04:36:26 AM
#4
The business cycle and the future, by martin armstrong:
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
legendary
Activity: 2828
Merit: 1792
June 07, 2015, 01:17:53 AM
#3
...

Armstrong's cyclicality is complicated for a Junior Armstrong Student like me, I will have to look at it some more.  "Waves upon waves" (through time) seems to cover it.  The math (of sine waves for example) can get out of hand very quickly though.

Did he call the race in advance?

Also, where does his 8.6 year cycle come from? 

(Alternatively, if he has an "FAQs" or similar re his basic ideas, please let me know)


BTW, I remember watching the Belmont in 1973 when Secretariat ran away from all of 'em.  Was WAY AHEAD of the pack.  What a horse.  Practically the whole country was watching.
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