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Topic: Martingale System - page 11. (Read 11573 times)

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June 23, 2014, 06:51:27 AM
#75
People seem to think they're not going to lose 10+ bets in a row but the longer you play the more likely this is to happen. Martingale most certainly isn't a magic money making scheme and most people learn that the hard way.
Neg
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Activity: 224
Merit: 100
June 23, 2014, 06:44:17 AM
#74
What does 2^23 mean? 23 loses and you're cleaned out?

at 23 losses you'd lose 2^23-1 your initial bet

2^23= 8.388.608 by the way

so, if you would bet 1 satoshi and lose 23 bets in a row, you'd be betting 0.08388608 just to win 1 satoshi. (with 49.5/50.5 chance to win/lose)

if you have a bankroll of 1 bitcoin you could fail a maximum of 25 times before you go bankrupt, assuming your initial bet is a single satoshi.

first bet = 1 satoshi
second bet = 2 satoshi
third bet = 4 satoshi
4th = 8
5th = 16
6th = 32
7th = 64
.....
10th = 512
......
20th = 524288 satoshi
25th = 33554432 satoshi

total = 67108863 satoshi (0.67108863 bitcoin)

Yeah thought that's what it meant. Thanks.
full member
Activity: 172
Merit: 100
June 23, 2014, 06:40:06 AM
#73
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.
It isn't worth is to use 1BTC to get 1 satoshi. If you actually want to use it to make a decent profit, example, 0.01, you can bust within the first few rounds, variance occurs so you might get a very bad streak immediately.

But you won't just win 1 satoshi. You could start betting 1 satoshi each time but if you've got a 1btc balance eventually you'll have a big loosing streak and eventually win where you make a little profit. Rinse and repeat.

2^23 and that 1BTC is gone.  It most likely won't happen on the first bet, but it very well could.  The fact you fail to understand odds is saddening.  Whatever the final exit limit is can be calculated at 2^(X-1) - X is the number of times you can fail before loosing everything.

This is the reason casinos have table limits to keep absurdity out.

I know the odds and I didn't say it was foolproof. You're unlikely to hit 23 loses for a while and obviously you take the gamble that this wont happen on your first rounds. Get greedy and gamble all day and you'll most certainly lose out.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
June 23, 2014, 06:35:41 AM
#72
What does 2^23 mean? 23 loses and you're cleaned out?

at 23 losses you'd lose 2^23-1 your initial bet

2^23= 8.388.608 by the way

so, if you would bet 1 satoshi and lose 23 bets in a row, you'd be betting 0.08388608 just to win 1 satoshi. (with 49.5/50.5 chance to win/lose)

if you have a bankroll of 1 bitcoin you could fail a maximum of 25 times before you go bankrupt, assuming your initial bet is a single satoshi.

first bet = 1 satoshi
second bet = 2 satoshi
third bet = 4 satoshi
4th = 8
5th = 16
6th = 32
7th = 64
.....
10th = 512
......
20th = 524288 satoshi
25th = 33554432 satoshi

total = 67108863 satoshi (0.67108863 bitcoin)
DrG
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 1035
June 23, 2014, 06:23:44 AM
#71
What does 2^23 mean? 23 loses and you're cleaned out?

23 sequential losses in a row and you're cleaned out.

First loss lose 1, double it to 2
Second loss lose 2, double it to 4 (you lost 3 total)
Third loss lose 4, double it to 8 (you lost 7 total).

You keep going until you reach your max hoping you'll win and "rinse and repeat" as noted above.  It works if you only want to bet a few times and have lots to risk, but as noted before you're doing a reverse lottery - risking a lot for a little gain which many would say is stupid.

If you're going to gamble, just gamble and enjoy. Don't think you can beat math.
Neg
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Activity: 224
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June 23, 2014, 06:06:25 AM
#70
What does 2^23 mean? 23 loses and you're cleaned out?
DrG
legendary
Activity: 2086
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June 23, 2014, 05:51:36 AM
#69
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.
It isn't worth is to use 1BTC to get 1 satoshi. If you actually want to use it to make a decent profit, example, 0.01, you can bust within the first few rounds, variance occurs so you might get a very bad streak immediately.

But you won't just win 1 satoshi. You could start betting 1 satoshi each time but if you've got a 1btc balance eventually you'll have a big loosing streak and eventually win where you make a little profit. Rinse and repeat.

2^23 and that 1BTC is gone.  It most likely won't happen on the first bet, but it very well could.  The fact you fail to understand odds is saddening.  Whatever the final exit limit is can be calculated at 2^(X-1) - X is the number of times you can fail before loosing everything.

This is the reason casinos have table limits to keep absurdity out.
full member
Activity: 172
Merit: 100
June 23, 2014, 04:55:39 AM
#68
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.
It isn't worth is to use 1BTC to get 1 satoshi. If you actually want to use it to make a decent profit, example, 0.01, you can bust within the first few rounds, variance occurs so you might get a very bad streak immediately.

But you won't just win 1 satoshi. You could start betting 1 satoshi each time but if you've got a 1btc balance eventually you'll have a big loosing streak and eventually win where you make a little profit. Rinse and repeat.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1015
June 23, 2014, 01:30:06 AM
#67
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.

If the very first bet fails, and you keep doubling down as per the system you could very well lose your betting cap and not have made a single satoshi.

If you're going to gamble, just place the damn bets independently and enjoy it responsibly.  Don't try to out-hink a system which is stacked against you.
Exactly. Whenever I tell people how much I'm up from dice games, they seem to think that it's impossible that I did that without using some kind of "system". All I did was bet what I was comfortable with at whatever odds I felt like playing at.

Want to know the secret about gambling? Variance is important, as it is the only way you can win against the house edge. The easiest way to have high variance is to only play a few times and then stop completely.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 260
June 22, 2014, 11:54:06 PM
#66
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.
It isn't worth is to use 1BTC to get 1 satoshi. If you actually want to use it to make a decent profit, example, 0.01, you can bust within the first few rounds, variance occurs so you might get a very bad streak immediately.
Depending on where you start with your betting then you could very well do essentially this. Your maximum reward will be the amount of your original bet, however you need to double your bet every time time you lose your bet.
legendary
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June 22, 2014, 09:43:03 PM
#65
Martingale is good for free money, but I wouldn't risk anything. Risking too much for too little gain.
It actually isn't that good for free money, you can bust within a short amount of time, before you get any profit and if you do get a little profit, it isn't actually a lot unless you do it in the long run which is risky. You can get greedy and lose it all.
hero member
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Merit: 1000
June 22, 2014, 09:37:32 PM
#64
Martingale is good for free money, but I wouldn't risk anything. Risking too much for too little gain.
legendary
Activity: 3038
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June 22, 2014, 08:43:33 PM
#63
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.
It isn't worth is to use 1BTC to get 1 satoshi. If you actually want to use it to make a decent profit, example, 0.01, you can bust within the first few rounds, variance occurs so you might get a very bad streak immediately.
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June 22, 2014, 04:10:59 PM
#62
Just mak sur eyou martingale at the dice sites I am invested in.  Grin
hero member
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June 22, 2014, 04:07:46 PM
#61
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.

You can certainly run up small amounts, though. I wouldn't risk much. But I've made good gains on Martingale, taking profit early always. Sure, my luck could turn though, but at this point, I only bet with pure profit.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 260
June 22, 2014, 03:58:05 PM
#60
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here.

This gambling system works so that you must take ever escalating risks to potentially receive a small reward that does not increase with your increased risk.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
June 22, 2014, 03:44:14 PM
#59
Will work if you have an infinite supply of wealth. Smiley

is it really worth the try. i'm curious about it and want to try it on freebitco.in. I also found a script online.

For martingale to work two things need to be true:

1) The gambler needs infinite amount of wealth/bankroll
2) The casino/house needs infinite amount of price money

If either of these statements is false, martingale will not be profitable in the long run.

Justdice only has a 1% house edge though, (and recently luck has been 100.05%) so your profitability could be 99% which is much better than most other casinos.

However don't gamble to become rich, as gamlbing will only make you poor. Gamble for fun if you like.

sr. member
Activity: 518
Merit: 250
June 22, 2014, 06:30:46 AM
#58
As long as the house has an edge there is no "system" to beat them - just algorithms to control your losses  Cheesy

True for the dice system, at least in my experience.
You could get up to 80% profit using a good algorithm and a little luck, but more than 100% will quickly fail
legendary
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June 22, 2014, 05:07:35 AM
#57
martingale system is like playing with electricity.  don't do it, lol.
legendary
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June 22, 2014, 04:58:17 AM
#56
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
That makes it a reverse lottery. That increases your probability of winning, but also increases the ratio of how much you win to how much you lose. It's like a reverse lottery where you get $1, but you have a one in a million chance of losing your house, wife, car, kids, job, and dignity.
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