Topic: Martingale System - page 6. (Read 11573 times)

Quote from: Harley997 on July 04, 2014, 05:07:09 PM

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

It is possible, although slim to lose out in the short run, there is still a small risk to bust.

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Quote from: Farmer17 on July 05, 2014, 10:17:48 AM

Quote from: Harley997 on July 04, 2014, 05:07:09 PM

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

Farmer17

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Quote from: ranochigo on July 05, 2014, 10:27:35 AM

Cashing out or building it in small increments doesn't help at all, it does not affect the variance and in some time, you will eventually bust.

It will just cost you more tx fee for your withdrawals and re-deposits.

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Quote from: Farmer17 on July 05, 2014, 10:17:48 AM

Quote from: Harley997 on July 04, 2014, 05:07:09 PM

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Cashing out or building it in small increments doesn't help at all, it does not affect the variance and in some time, you will eventually bust.

Farmer17

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Quote from: Harley997 on July 04, 2014, 05:07:09 PM

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

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Quote from: Harley997 on July 04, 2014, 05:07:09 PM

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.

Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

As I said above, you're up after 1 winning bet. But who quits after 1 bet? The answer is nobody. The second bet might very well be the one that breaks your bank. If you cash it out the odds are in casino's favor so you will most likely go bust before earning back your initial roll-out.

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Quote from: Harley997 on July 04, 2014, 05:07:09 PM

Quote from: Harley997 on July 04, 2014, 05:07:09 PM

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.

Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

BtcGains

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I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.

Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

Harley997

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I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.

Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

ALToids

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I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.

The first bet that you win you are ahead. Most people will not quit after winning just one bet.

Try martingale on PD during Happy Hour and see how hard it is to get to 50K. I tried for 3 happy hours and finally succeeded only to have the autobet continue 7 more rounds and lose almost everything.

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Quote from: JoelKatz on July 02, 2014, 11:48:42 AM

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.

BtcGains

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I don't gamble but I've seen friends online lose a lot of money using martingale on dice
Usually starts with "oh hey look at me making lots of money with this cool new method"
Ends up losing a ton of money

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Quote from: JoelKatz on July 02, 2014, 11:48:42 AM

If this did really work there would be no gambling sites because they would be bankrupt because everyone would be using this method.

Gambling sites do lose a lot of money due to people gambling using the Martingale system. In fact, the majority of people who use the Martingale system properly will make money. There are gambling sites that have more losing days than winning days because they have a lot of customers who are using Martingale correctly.

Of course, they win a lot more. And when they have winning days, the amounts they win are *much* greater than the amounts they lose. That's what Martingale does. It's like a reverse lottery where the house gives you $1, but one in a million times they blow up your house, kill your children, and cut off a few of your fingers. (Perhaps the Hunger Games are a better analogy.)

Well, if I am going to make one 98% bet every day for 100 days in PD, I could expect to have 98 "winning days" and only 2 "losing days" on average, but at the same time expect to lose 1% of my bet amount due to the 1% house edge.

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Quote from: DannyElfman on July 02, 2014, 11:22:46 PM

If this did really work there would be no gambling sites because they would be bankrupt because everyone would be using this method.

Gambling sites do lose a lot of money due to people gambling using the Martingale system. In fact, the majority of people who use the Martingale system properly will make money. There are gambling sites that have more losing days than winning days because they have a lot of customers who are using Martingale correctly.

Of course, they win a lot more. And when they have winning days, the amounts they win are *much* greater than the amounts they lose. That's what Martingale does. It's like a reverse lottery where the house gives you $1, but one in a million times they blow up your house, kill your children, and cut off a few of your fingers. (Perhaps the Hunger Games are a better analogy.)

I would dispute this. If the house has an edge of n% then on average the house will make n% off of every bet that is wagered assuming that the gambler is not somehow cheating or manipulating the system

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I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything Sad

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Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Do you have a source on this?

Several conversations with small gambling site operators.

Quote

The Martingale system can effectively be countered by a small spread between the minimum and maximum bet size allowed. 7

For example, if the min bet was .01 BTC and the max bet was 1.0BTC then the gambler would only need a loosing streak of 7 in order to fail. After the 7th loss the better will have just placed a bet of .64BTC and would need to bet 1.28BTC in order to continue using the system properly. If they only bet 1BTC and win then they would still be down .28BTC

By "Martingale", I don't just mean the classic Martingale system but any progressive betting system whose purpose is to drastically decrease the gambler's probability of losing. The counter to having a small spread is the d'Alembert system.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/cancellation/

With a progressive system, you can reduce your chances of losing to be about as low as you like. It follows necessarily that the house's chance of losing can be pushed as high as you'd like. The cost, of course, is the amount you win gets small and the amount you lose, should you lose, gets very, very, very high.

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Quote from: JoelKatz on July 02, 2014, 11:48:42 AM

If this did really work there would be no gambling sites because they would be bankrupt because everyone would be using this method.

Gambling sites do lose a lot of money due to people gambling using the Martingale system. In fact, the majority of people who use the Martingale system properly will make money. There are gambling sites that have more losing days than winning days because they have a lot of customers who are using Martingale correctly.

Of course, they win a lot more. And when they have winning days, the amounts they win are *much* greater than the amounts they lose. That's what Martingale does. It's like a reverse lottery where the house gives you $1, but one in a million times they blow up your house, kill your children, and cut off a few of your fingers. (Perhaps the Hunger Games are a better analogy.)

Do you have a source on this?

The Martingale system can effectively be countered by a small spread between the minimum and maximum bet size allowed. 7

For example, if the min bet was .01 BTC and the max bet was 1.0BTC then the gambler would only need a loosing streak of 7 in order to fail. After the 7th loss the better will have just placed a bet of .64BTC and would need to bet 1.28BTC in order to continue using the system properly. If they only bet 1BTC and win then they would still be down .28BTC

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Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.