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Topic: Martingale System - page 5. (Read 11565 times)

legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 4418
Crypto Swap Exchange
July 06, 2014, 10:04:57 PM
So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.
I call BS on this as 200% profit means that you have thousands of wins prior to losing 18 in a row. Your odds of that happening are just not there
Its up to you to believe it or not, I left it there for a few days, from 0.001 to 0.002.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
July 06, 2014, 10:01:36 PM
So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.
I call BS on this as 200% profit means that you have thousands of wins prior to losing 18 in a row. Your odds of that happening are just not there
hero member
Activity: 603
Merit: 500
July 06, 2014, 09:35:40 PM
So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.

It depends on your luck, like in all gambling. But it is better to do a x2 bet than making hundreds or thousands of bets with martingale. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 4418
Crypto Swap Exchange
July 06, 2014, 09:01:59 PM
So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
Unfortunately, no. It was pretty long time ago. Impossible to even profit from this in a long run. In many occasions, I have got a 18 lose streak. It was probably just my luck.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 260
July 06, 2014, 07:30:14 PM
So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
Do you have any screen shots of you doing this? I think that it is very far fetched that you could have tippled your money using the martingale system.
newbie
Activity: 26
Merit: 0
July 06, 2014, 06:56:55 PM
I have used the 999dice autobot - https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/999dicecom-autobet-bot-563437 which uses the Martingale system.

It started very well and I was up 40mBTC however a 20 round losing streak wiped me out.

That taught me a valuable lesson and I haven't used it since.

legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
July 06, 2014, 06:44:23 PM
So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
Very very little. The amount you make is very small relative to the amount you can lose. In exchange, the probability that you will lose is very, very low.

It's like a lottery in reverse. With a lottery, the amount you lose is very, very small and the amount you can win is very, very large. But in exchange, the chance that you will win is very small. With a progressive betting system, the amount you win is very, very small. And the amount you can lose is very, very large. But in exchange, the chance that you will win is very high.

And with both, because the house has an edge, the house's expected profit will always be positive and the player's expected gain will always be negative.
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 4418
Crypto Swap Exchange
July 06, 2014, 04:05:38 PM
So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
I have tried a few runs with one satoshi as base. At lucky times, I made 200% the amount in one day while I have lost 0.001 within seconds on many other days. Your expected profit is and will be negative since House edge exist, people only use it because they think they can succeed.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
July 06, 2014, 02:01:43 PM
As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.
Being able to double your bankroll using martingale is very difficult. You need to start with a bankroll large enough to have at least 10 consecutive losses in order to have a very small chance that you will lose your entire bankroll. However this means that you need to have a bankroll 1,024 times your original bet. So you would need to win a total of 1024 times before having 10 consecutive losses in order to double your bankroll.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
July 06, 2014, 01:52:15 PM
So how much can you make using martingale? It seems very little then.
legendary
Activity: 1134
Merit: 1002
July 06, 2014, 01:15:32 PM
As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.
If you repeat a progressive system, you defeat the entire point of the progressive system.

Lotteries have a very low amount that you lose relative to what you can win. The great thing about buying a lottery ticket is that at most you lose $1, and you can win millions. But if you keep buying lottery tickets every time you lose, you lost that advantage. And that advantage is the only good thing about a lottery.

Martingale, and other progressive betting systems, are reverse lotteries. The amount you win is small, but the odds of you losing are small too. If you play over and over, you defeat the entire point by drastically increasing the odds of a loss.

If you're going to play over and over, there's no point in using a progressive system. That undoes all the work of minimizing your chance of a loss that the progressive bets did.


Very well said.
The chance to lose 10 or 15 or 20 times consecutively is very low, but if you keep betting, it will eventually occur.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
July 06, 2014, 01:38:16 AM
As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.
If you repeat a progressive system, you defeat the entire point of the progressive system.

Lotteries have a very low amount that you lose relative to what you can win. The great thing about buying a lottery ticket is that at most you lose $1, and you can win millions. But if you keep buying lottery tickets every time you lose, you lost that advantage. And that advantage is the only good thing about a lottery.

Martingale, and other progressive betting systems, are reverse lotteries. The amount you win is small, but the odds of you losing are small too. If you play over and over, you defeat the entire point by drastically increasing the odds of a loss.

If you're going to play over and over, there's no point in using a progressive system. That undoes all the work of minimizing your chance of a loss that the progressive bets did.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
July 06, 2014, 12:27:09 AM
lol, martingale. yeah that lost me some coins. Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 519
Merit: 500
July 06, 2014, 12:18:46 AM
As long as the house has the edge, you are facing an uphill battle.  If you try to win a little and stop the streak and wait for the next day, then the odds are that before you double your bankroll you will go bust.  Unless you quit after your very first win, you will always risk losing your entire bankroll.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 260
July 05, 2014, 10:43:24 PM

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

It's a good thing to start when you're ahead - sure, but the profit from each win is so tiny that you'll only be a few satoshis ahead anyways if you stop within a safe time frame.
This is correct, the amount you will win needs to be very small compared to your original bankroll that you will need to go through several very bad streaks to potentially be up any meaningful amount.
newbie
Activity: 55
Merit: 0
July 05, 2014, 07:30:33 PM
is it really worth the try. i'm curious about it and want to try it on freebitco.in. I also found a script online.

wheres the script you found? are you still using it?

im looking for the same thing as well.
newbie
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
July 05, 2014, 06:58:58 PM

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

It's a good thing to start when you're ahead - sure, but the profit from each win is so tiny that you'll only be a few satoshis ahead anyways if you stop within a safe time frame.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 260
July 05, 2014, 02:39:16 PM

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

The amount you will be ahead will always be small when using the martingale system. You will win in increments of your minimum bet, which by definition needs to be very small.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1012
Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.
July 05, 2014, 01:48:09 PM
If this did really work there would be no gambling sites because they would be bankrupt because everyone would be using this method.
Gambling sites do lose a lot of money due to people gambling using the Martingale system. In fact, the majority of people who use the Martingale system properly will make money. There are gambling sites that have more losing days than winning days because they have a lot of customers who are using Martingale correctly.

Of course, they win a lot more. And when they have winning days, the amounts they win are *much* greater than the amounts they lose. That's what Martingale does. It's like a reverse lottery where the house gives you $1, but one in a million times they blow up your house, kill your children, and cut off a few of your fingers. (Perhaps the Hunger Games are a better analogy.)

I would dispute this. If the house has an edge of n% then on average the house will make n% off of every bet that is wagered assuming that the gambler is not somehow cheating or manipulating the system
That is not inconsistent with what I said at all. It is absolutely true that if the house edge is n%, then the house's expected profit will be n% of the total amount wagered.

It's like solo mining versus pool mining at a low hash rate. The one thing that doesn't change is your expected return as a function of your hash rate. However, you can change the variance drastically.

Progressive betting systems allow gamblers to change the variance so much that the house loses money on more days than they make money. Of course, their average is still positive, the variance just becomes enormous.

Imagine if 99 days out of 100, the house loses $1,000, but one day out of 100, the house makes $1,000,000. That pattern shows the house losing most of the time but nevertheless having an expected profit on each wager. If all or most of the wagers are coming from progressive betting systems, the house's returns can take this kind of pattern.
hero member
Activity: 674
Merit: 500
July 05, 2014, 10:48:55 AM
Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.
It is possible, although slim to lose out in the short run, there is still a small risk to bust.

Exactly.
And after you stop with a little bit profit today, you would likely come back tomorrow and repeat the process again and again to get some "easy profit"...

It is unlikely to encounter a long losing streak if you just play a handful of bets. But if you keep betting again and again, the chance will become larger and larger...

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