Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
Not really, you can also bust on the first few rounds, even if you have a big balance, the risk is actually higher here. 
Topic: Martingale System - page 12. (Read 11565 times)
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
If the very first bet fails, and you keep doubling down as per the system you could very well lose your betting cap and not have made a single satoshi.
If you're going to gamble, just place the damn bets independently and enjoy it responsibly. Don't try to out-hink a system which is stacked against you.
As long as the house has an edge there is no "system" to beat them - just algorithms to control your losses 
That's right. You can change the odds around, but the edge remains precisely the same. If the house edge is 1% and your total bet is X, your expected profit is -X/100.You can make it much more likely that you'll win than that you'll lose, and thus much more likely that the house will lose than that they'll win. But when you do lose, it will be *huge*.
So, you can turn this: 51% of the time you lose $1, 49% of the time you make $1.
Into this: 99.9% of the time you make $1, 0.1% of the time you lose just over $1,000.
Bitcoin betting systems see lots of people using Martingale. As a result, they have long stretches in which they lose money. Operators have become concerned that there was an exploit or defect in their system. But then you have the good day that makes up for all the losses.
Martin gale will work on small ammounts on a big balance. Just quit whilst you're ahead and don't get greedy.
As long as the house has an edge there is no "system" to beat them - just algorithms to control your losses
What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15 non winning streaks and then started betting.
The bets are independent, so the chance of future bets will stay the same.
Yup:
Quote from: Wikipedia
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false...
...There is another way to emphasize the fallacy. As already mentioned, the fallacy is built on the notion that previous failures indicate an increased probability of success on subsequent attempts.
...There is another way to emphasize the fallacy. As already mentioned, the fallacy is built on the notion that previous failures indicate an increased probability of success on subsequent attempts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15 non winning streaks and then started betting.
The bets are independent, so the chance of future bets will stay the same.
What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15 non winning streaks and then started betting.
If you have a string of bad "luck" then you could quickly either hit the max bet or your bankroll would run out. This is the flaw of this type of gambling system.
I didn't know what Martingale was until I read about it and realized I was actually doing the exact same thing on Freebitco.in when I wanted to turn my balance into a nice round number just before withdrawing - e.g. having a balance of 29,980 satoshis and betting 20 satoshis to reach 30,000 satoshis. If I lose the bet, I would bet 40 satoshis, and so on until I won it all back plus the 20 satoshis. It worked well for me so far but I would definitely stop if I lost a large enough amount (fortunately that hasn't happened yet).
Martingale works semi-reliably if you have a very large balance and only bet very small amounts. But anything more than that and people tend to underestimate the frequency of losing streaks. The more bets you place in order to bring yourself to a reasonable profit, the more you're exposing yourself to encountering such a losing streak, and when that happens, you can easily blow away your entire balance - thus negating the strategy overall.
EDIT: Some rewording.
Martingale works semi-reliably if you have a very large balance and only bet very small amounts. But anything more than that and people tend to underestimate the frequency of losing streaks. The more bets you place in order to bring yourself to a reasonable profit, the more you're exposing yourself to encountering such a losing streak, and when that happens, you can easily blow away your entire balance - thus negating the strategy overall.
EDIT: Some rewording.
What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15 non winning streaks and then started betting.
As it is pure probability, it can work, but there is no guarantee.
However the chance is probably higher than winning the lottery
the problem is with martingale you can lose more fast than lottery, even if you have bad luck you can lose only in 5 min However the chance is probably higher than winning the lottery
As i allready explained somewhere , martingale is not a good system enough, since you have to have like 100 BTC to be able to make 0.001 per day with a really fast script to be on the safe side.
There are a lot of people that can confirm that 34 streaks (non winning numbers) happened , now to transform that in numbers:
1-0.00000001
..
.
.
32-21.47483648
33-42.94967296
34-85.89934592
Sum till this bet is 171.79869183 BTC, Are you still sure you want to do martingale?
What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15 non winning streaks and then started betting.
There are a lot of people that can confirm that 34 streaks (non winning numbers) happened , now to transform that in numbers:
1-0.00000001
..
.
.
32-21.47483648
33-42.94967296
34-85.89934592
Sum till this bet is 171.79869183 BTC, Are you still sure you want to do martingale?
What would happen then if I waited till there had been already a run of 10 or 15 non winning streaks and then started betting.
As it is pure probability, it can work, but there is no guarantee.
However the chance is probably higher than winning the lottery
However the chance is probably higher than winning the lottery
It may work for a short while, but when you lose, you lose big. It's worth a shot for faucets and 'free' BTC, but certainly not to actually try to make some coins.
It's great for freerolls, like on PrimeDice. You can actually have a shot at running it up, withdrawing some profit, and letting the rest run. But it's a bit risky to do with your own money, IMO.
It may work for a short while, but when you lose, you lose big. It's worth a shot for faucets and 'free' BTC, but certainly not to actually try to make some coins.
Quote
Thanks for this. i'll try this system but will not push to the limit.
It's not a system. It's a strategy. For every 10+ wins in a row there's an equal chance of losing 10x.
Say you're betting 1000 doge. If you need to overcome 10 losses it'll cost over 500,000 ...
Variance doesn't mean casino edge
i'm not too sure about freebitco.in, i have not checked it out. but as others have mentioned, martingale will always fail....
In reality the results is you either win a few bet units or lose whole your bankroll. You won't have fun. Just play a normal strategy.
Yes it is fun to let them think it works if you or I run a Casino.
I do not.. lol.. assuming you do not either yeah ?
The fun about Martingale is to think it works so we are ruining the fun of many players, I almost feel bad
And don't stop when you won a lot; do one more bet to double up
I do not.. lol.. assuming you do not either yeah ?
You serious ?
If it was guaranteed we would all be millionaires...
You may win.. say $10k... then go again.. win another $10k... then go again and lose it all...
Do not do it... its silly.. unless you have unlimited bank roll, which I am guessing you don't.
If you just want to have a bit of fun give it a go, but if you win. stop.... i repeat.. stop!
If it was guaranteed we would all be millionaires...
You may win.. say $10k... then go again.. win another $10k... then go again and lose it all...
Do not do it... its silly.. unless you have unlimited bank roll, which I am guessing you don't.
If you just want to have a bit of fun give it a go, but if you win. stop.... i repeat.. stop!
is it really worth the try. i'm curious about it and want to try it on freebitco.in. I also found a script online.
The fun about Martingale is to think it works so we are ruining the fun of many players, I almost feel bad
And don't stop when you won a lot; do one more bet to double up
Quote
Thanks for this. i'll try this system but will not push to the limit.
It's not a system. It's a strategy. For every 10+ wins in a row there's an equal chance of losing 10x.
Say you're betting 1000 doge. If you need to overcome 10 losses it'll cost over 500,000 ...
Jump to: