Topic: Martingale System - page 4. (Read 11573 times)

This. A straight martingale method is never going to guarantee you anything. The house has an edge. You do not have an unlimited bank roll. You WILL fail. However, you can do smaller martingales and take your profit and run. I wouldn't even bother but it's possible.

Counting cards is technically not cheating as it is not illegal, nor does it give an advantage that is not available to anyone else.

Cheating would be if you were to somehow rig the game so that you know the outcome prior to placing your bet. 

Their house edge is caused by their rules and subtle things that are harder to notice...  The percentage point edge doesn't cause 20 losses in a row, that's just statistical probability.  In games of chance that rely on shuffling, rolling dice, etc., statistical probability basically realizes that everything will happen at some point.  You will get 20 losses in a row, you will get 20 wins in a row at some point, as long as you stay.  It's like pulling a blackjack followed by another.  It happens, it's statistically not often, but it does and will happen.  If you want to not get large loss-runs, then to decrease your chances, don't play as long.  That's how the house edge takes people.  If they have a 1% average, and you start with $100, their rules and games will result in taking $1 from that $100 every hour, on average.  Long sittings just increase your chances of the chance circumstances, both good and bad, of happening.  If you're wanting to make money, minimizing the chances of those occurrences is best. 

Where the edge comes from, in, say...  A BTC dice game is how they set the high/low and the bets.  Some of them display high as 5250 to 9999 and the low at 4750 down to 1.  High/low as a name gives the impression it's 50/50, but actually that would be a 0.95 chance of winning, not an even chance.  Just-dice cleverly uses decimals to distract people, >50.4999, <49.5000.  It's very distracting and misleading, subconsciously gives you the idea that it's one or the other, but you bet high, you get 50.4999 to 99.9999, whereas they get 0.0001 to 50.4998.  The button says <49.5000 but that's only for you if you click on low.  They get the edge from the extra 4 decimals' worth of number combinations that could be there.  I think that's actually a much higher edge on just dice than 1%.  Casinos, also, they use the 0 and 00 sections on Roulette that give them more than a 2% edge on people betting on the more straightforward one or the other bets.

Hey, I hope I can give you some advice, as I'm someone who's spent a significant amount of time gambling and working on the best ways to turn profit over the years.  First off, there's never a guaranteed method to win every time, unless you've found a way to cheat.  Even cheating isn't a guaranteed win if you find a way to do it.  For example, card counting in blackjack.  You don't actually know when a card is coming up, but you add and subtract based on the cards that have been drawn out of the shoe, and you're waiting for when the numbers go further in one direction, indicating that there is a significantly greater chance of 10's drawn than normal, which increases your odds of pulling a 20 on the flop and also increases the chance that the house will bust, due to the rules outlining hitting (anything under 17) and staying (anything 17 and up).

So let's get into what you're wanting to do, make money.  Firstly, if you're going with the 2x multiplier, the odds are as close to in your favour as you can get.  The odds against you are just over 1.05x, or you could say your odds at winning are 0.95x.  All gambling games win because of that.  These odds basically mean that if you sat there and kept playing, the house will win 100 hands for your 95.  You'll but in a few bitcoin, go up, go down, then up, but not as far up, then down more, and it'll continue over time.  However, the first thing you have to do is set rules.  I know having a losing streak for 50 hands in a row seems almost impossible, even though we all know it can happen, but the one truth that I can tell you is that the more hands you play, the higher your chances are of having that happen.  So you really should set a limit on how many hands you will play.  Either have a definitive number or have a maximum number, and stick with it.  It's tempting if you're down to try and win the money back, but it's much better to cash out and come back tomorrow.  You'll be clear thinking and have greater chances of winning the next day with a fresh start.  I recommend having a hand limit no higher than 100.  You can always do 100 hands twice in a day.

Next, you're already on the right track...  Looking for a betting strategy.  Mathematics, son!  Mathematics is the key to closing the gap on the house's edge, and sometimes being able to actually tip them in your favour.  Now the Martingale system is the first one people usually come up with.  You won't want to use a bot with it if you're experimenting, it WILL absolutely get you to the point where your money's all gone.  Too fast at betting, and not able to make the decision to walk away.  The problem with the Martingale system is exponential growth.  The amount you could lose compared to how much you can win actually slights the house's edge even more.  Let's say you set a rule that you'll walk away if you lose 6 hands in a row, which carries a 2.1256% chance of losing your 63 chips you've got at the bankroll to support 6 losing hands.  You have pretty good odds of winning that 1 chip, at 97.8744%.  You double up every hand to win that one unit back, so if you're on 5 losses, and on your last roll, if you're trying to win $5 you're risking $315.  If you sit down and play, you will absolutely reach this level at some point.  If you play 200 hands, you're almost guaranteed to reach this point before the 200th hand.  The only time you should use the Martingale system is when you have a very large bankroll, and you're looking to make a little bit of pocket change.  e.g., If you want $50 to go out with friends on the weekend, or want to put gas in the car but not actually be out the money, head to the casino with $1500 to $2000 in your pocket, sit down at Blackjack, Baccarat or War (roulette's red/black and odd/even is actually much worse chances due to the 0 and 00 spot) and set your starting unit at $10, and set your walk away point at $50 or less.  It's almost impossible to lose when aiming at winning between 1 and 3 times, but I usually go up to 5 with it.  I've lost maybe around $600 or $700 once, and about $300 or $400 another time like this, but I've won $50 exponentially more times.

The D'alembert Method actually works much better with slightly tweaked rules, and increases your odds, speeds up the rate at which you earn money while slowing down the speed at which you can lose money, with the only downside really being that it takes more concentration to maintain your focus and rules.  In order to try and win $50 in with $5 units, you'll probably be either busted or have won before you reach 30 hands, but the D'alembert Method is slower, and could run you the whole 100 and not have you there yet.  This is a system I used for a long time, and you can actually play for hours with it, as long as you watch for one risk I'll get into in a moment.  The basics of the D'alembert Method is that you start with one unit, and if you lose, you increase by one unit on the next hand, lose again, increase the bet one more unit.  Then, if you win the next hand, decrease one unit.  Lose again, increase one, then the next one, you win, so let's decrease it one more unit.  Now take a look at the math of the example I just gave; -$5, -$10, +$15, -$10, +$15.  You just lost 3 hands out of 5, but you are up $5.  Also, let's say you had the same 63 units bankroll as a 6-loss Martingale bank, so $315.  If you lost 6 in a row, you're down $105 instead of $315.  Still $210 bankroll left to play with, so your next hand is $35 and you win, you're down to $70 behind.  If you use this method, you will find you get to bets in the $20 to $30 range easily, but stick to your rules, and you work the house edge right back.  The edge against you in Blackjack is the second smallest in the casino (as long as you can follow the blackjack strategy and not allow human emotion to get you to stay when strategy says hit, or vice versa).  The best odds game removes that from the equation, though, which is betting on Banker in Baccarat (though payout is 0.95:1).  Lastly, let me explain what I hinted to earlier, the biggest flaw or risk in this method...  Losing streaks, where you're winning 1 of 5 hands, or say lose 6 in a row, win one, then lose another 5. Or possibly losing 3 of 5, so you're making profits still, but your bets are getting high.  I've been up a couple hundred profit, but been upward of $150 hands before I thought this through.  The higher your bet, the greater the chance of breaking your bank from a smaller losing streak.  So set rules in this area too.  Some rules I've used well (and this is where the concentration really kicks in for this method) are having interim win points set, like reset goals or even taking a break to go for a walk or a drink then and returning after (don't stay at any game for too long, always make sure to sit, grab what you can, then leave for at least a bit).  For example, if I'm getting $100 or $200 today, I'm going to do it in $50 chunks.  It's harder for casino edges to get their hooks in with short-terms.  I do my bets like above, keeping count of what my next hand's bet will be on the win or loss, and also keeping track of my +/- balance in my head.  The moment I reach +50, it's break time.  Even still, while working to $50, certain times, it's going to be a back and forth game, and your bets will be getting higher and higher, so determine a rule for that for the day, like once the bet becomes $20+, the moment you reach +2 units from your last highest balance, you reset to the initial $5 bet.  Risk of high bets destroying your bankroll averted.

The last one that I find you can have a lot of fun with is the Fibonacci Method, using those magical numbers that can be found in everything, everywhere you go... Be it in sunflowers or how rabbits breed (true).  The Fibonacci sequence starts at 0, then increases.  You get the next number in the sequence by adding the last two together.  Here's what the beginning of the infinite sequence looks like.  0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, .... Now, you can develop your own methods for betting, but once again, make rules that keep you in check and don't aim to stay sitting too long.  This method is similar to the Martingale, but your bankroll can handle a larger loss run, if you make it through a loss run you have the ability to actually gain more than one unit out of it, and you can get to your win goal quicker due to the structure resulting in a more balanced risk to gain with possible loss and profits.  Not to mention, it's math, so you'll be developing and working out the logical portion of your brain while doing it!  With these numbers, you can set anywhere in the series as your starting point, and you can choose between betting those numbers as currency, like $8, $13, or you could use them as units for your bets, like 5 $5 chips, then 8 $5 chips, etc.  This is not like the D'alembert modified method I've listed above, however, you will, like Martingale, bust if you try and keep going and going.  I personally don't go over 50 hands max with this method, and usually make more than I ever came close to with Martingale, due to the versatility of the magic numbers.  You stage the bets like my version of the D'alembert, but instead of only winning 1 unit of the last series, regardless of how long of a streak you're losing, you always win back the money from the previous two bets.  Due to this fact, an extremely efficient way to bet is to move up in the sequence one number for each loss, and each win, go back two.  If you win only 1 of every 3, you will break even, but you'll win more often than that in the long run, so I usually just follow through with 2 back on a win until I'm back at my starting bet again, then keep going.  As for when the numbers get higher, after a loss on 34, I modify the rules to minimize a high loss percentage streak from letting my bets get outside of my bank by adding a rule to start from the beginning when and if I win 2 of 3 hands, either 2 in a row or W/L/W, as both of them will result in a significant profit.  You could also have a forward 1 on loss, back 1 on win bet, and implement a point where you will do the two steps back or 2 in 3 win reset to prevent the chances of it getting too high..  This method works best on games of chance where you don't control any of the game, such as betting Banker on Baccarat, Casino War, High-Low or Sic-bo, craps, and roulette (I enjoy roulette with this method, otherwise hate the game).  In games like roulette, or the freebitco.in over/under game, this method has one more way of betting that can be more profitable in a shorter timeframe, too (not without increased risk).  With the over/under game, there's the option to increase the payout by decreasing the numbers that're over/under...  If you set the payout up to 3:1, you can increase the bet to the next number with every loss, and 1 win will allow you to reset to the starting number. I recommend starting with at least 5, so that way on a hot streat you actually win a more significant amount.


Phew.  That was a lot of explaining.  Please experiment, but I'm sure that this explanation will help you understand some more elaborate and more efficient strategies.  Keep in mind that you need to set rules and guidelines every time you're about to log in or go somewhere to gamble, choosing and modifying the right ones based on your experience with them will increase your success in the games, whereas breaking your self-imposed rules will put you at risk for losing much more than you planned.  You are never on a roll, so never stay past your limit thinking you'll just go for a bit more.  I've done this many times, and sometimes ended up with good results, most often though, went up a bit, almost lost everything, then made it back to less than if I walked at my limit. Though I mentioned above I'd lost larger amounts twice, though only a portion of the bank I had with me.  Never put your whole bank up or dip back into your pocket to add to the bankroll you're playing with.  I like to go into a casino with $2,000 ideally, but never less than $1,000.  I never cash it all into chips, this is my overall bankroll.  I separate it into at least 4 parts, and then if you lose a game's bankroll, you have much more than that left, so you can make it back.  If you bankrupt that too, it's probably good to take the rest of the week off, but you've got multiple chances to make any losses back with the separate banks.  I haven't ever lost my second of 4 or 5 bankrolls though.  Remember, the D'alembert will work best when you want to play for longer times, or multiple times throughout the day, and the Fibonacci is when you want to get in and out.




--I'm 30 years old and have been a gambler since I was 19.  It took years to develop and work out the best ways to increase profitability, and when I gamble, I don't gamble for fun, just for profit.  Try out my methods, and let me know how you're doing with them.  If you've got any questions, let me know and I'll give you the best answers I can.  Hope you break the bank on freebitco.in !


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This is exactly correct. Over time you will have both winning and loosing streaks that stretch into the double digits. This will not happen often but it will happen. Very similar to how there can be multiple blocks found just seconds apart from eachother

why ... loose all for what?   

But isnt that house edge like any gambling site.

Thats where the 1% house edge comes in... or are they referring to per roll?

There are plenty of potential incentives for anyone to make up a story.

It is even possible for 20+ loss in a row. I have seen people losing like 25 or more in a row. As usual varience is a key, the lose streak will come eventually if you play long enough.

I have loss 15 times in a row so the best is just avoid gambling.

Honestly, I don't have the time to make up such a story, I have much better things to do. I just want to say one successful experience and yes, I have lost quite some money in martingale. I did not encourage anyone to use martingale, furthermore I discourage people to use it. What can I gain from making up such a story anyway?

dont use that scrypt suddenly your all bitcoins will remove .. so dont try if you dont want to lose..

While ranochigo has no proof of the doubling, we also have no proof that he is lying. And, I don't see any incentive he has to make up such a story, and even ranochigo him doesn't suggest people to use martingale.
We should just let it go.

don't play and you'll be the winner

It is possible but it is just very unlikely. It is even less credible with the absence of proof.

Oops, sorry I meant 100% profit per day. Well, I ran it for a few days, 10 hours per day and didn't bust. Mathematically speaking, it isn't possible, but there is a small chance it can happen. Which is true. I rarely have that streak again. There are more lose streaks than win streak. It was a long time ago anyway. My bot is pretty fast, average 6 bets per second.

Getting 200% profit means simply going to from 0.001 to 0.003.  If you bet 0.001, won, and then bet another 0.001 and won - you would be at the same place.  You have a slightly less than 1/4 chance using conventional betting assuming a near 50/50 odds.

First, he said "from 0.001 to 0.002", which is 100% profit only.
True that it is more likely to lose the whole balance, but the chance to get 100% profit isn't that low statistically speaking.

Mathematically, it simply doesn't work. You are more likely to lose all you have through a bad streak than you are of reaching 200% profit. The exact calculation can be found lying around on the web.

It works for a brief amount of time until it bursts in a glorious flame. If you do it, double up and run. I have always managed to double and even triple up on it. Never turned a profit though because eventually, you will go bust.