Massive spike to $7 (then $15.9499) sunday 3PM BST at MtGox

Edward50

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Quote from: Cluster2k on September 11, 2011, 08:41:42 PM

Well, I wake up this morning and the massive volatility returned. It let me get rid of some bitcoins in the low $7 range but even those Asks were too low. These massive and on the surface irrational looking trades are very interesting, to say the least.

What is Odd is that it somehow got the price to go higher and currently stay higher. Makes me wonder what is going on. Now it looks like the Bid orders are getting bloated again.

I seriously doubt that the average person is going to buy bitcoins at this range, when they just got beaten pretty badly lately and most likely the price will probably go back down.

This is why I think its someone or some kind of cartel working here on the pricing. Maybe its just bots also. But it is definitely not a rational person doing this.

dooglus

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Checking the same getTrades.php API now shows that the trades at 8.5, 10.5, 12.5 have disappeared from the trade history:

This is the same time period as I pasted a couple of posts up from here, and now only the nine 5.5 trades still exist in that time range:

Code:

{"date":1315753350,"price":"5.51206","amount":"0.51","price_int":"551206","amount_int":"51000000","tid":"1315753350870615","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753350,"price":"5.51205","amount":"9.51","price_int":"551205","amount_int":"951000000","tid":"1315753350900809","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753353,"price":"5.50227","amount":"2.84442602","price_int":"550227","amount_int":"284442602","tid":"1315753353208319","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753362,"price":"5.50227","amount":"35","price_int":"550227","amount_int":"3500000000","tid":"1315753362025600","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753374,"price":"5.50217","amount":"1.1","price_int":"550217","amount_int":"110000000","tid":"1315753374882708","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753407,"price":"5.50217","amount":"19","price_int":"550217","amount_int":"1900000000","tid":"1315753407440568","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753420,"price":"5.50207","amount":"21","price_int":"550207","amount_int":"2100000000","tid":"1315753420123491","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753420,"price":"5.50227","amount":"9","price_int":"550227","amount_int":"900000000","tid":"1315753420149017","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753445,"price":"5.50227","amount":"8.51","price_int":"550227","amount_int":"851000000","tid":"1315753445862485","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},

Did an explanation from MtGox appear anywhere, whether official or unofficial?

Cluster2k

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Well, I wake up this morning and the massive volatility returned. It let me get rid of some bitcoins in the low $7 range but even those Asks were too low. These massive and on the surface irrational looking trades are very interesting, to say the least.

skull88

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Quote from: rebuilder on September 11, 2011, 04:14:03 PM

Quote from: Nagle on September 11, 2011, 03:29:50 PM

With Mt. Gox having a flaky period again, I'd suggest pulling all assets out of Mt. Gox. If you're not going to trade it in the next 24

I considered this. Unfortunately, withdrawing EUR ( in my case) is too much of a hassle, and converting my USD assets to Bitcoin to withdraw seems very risky at this point.

US Dollar to Euro currency (SEPA zone)

Why don't use this option? Huh

opticbit

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Quote from: Cluster2k on September 11, 2011, 11:40:24 AM

Quote from: Vandroiy on September 11, 2011, 11:37:36 AM

Quote from: grod on September 11, 2011, 11:28:06 AM

Bots rely on pricing data to make their decisions.

Guess what happens when they get fed a bunch of bogus data?

Right, I didn't think of that. But the bot writers should know this problem, as it has been there for a while already. Still, it is a possible explanation.

I'm not so sure whether Mtgox gives warranty of their feeds being correct 100% of the time. I agree that this is very questionable, but might still be the case.

Imagine the NASDAQ reporting AAPL spiking to $900 a share and back again with no order executed in between. There would be questions asked, to say teh least.

Scottrade did this with NWA around the time of the Delta merger announcement. Went from $~4 to ~$400 for a minute and back to normal.

old_engineer

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Quote from: dooglus on September 11, 2011, 05:46:49 PM

If you ignore the dollar price and just look at the cents, it's a very smooth price movement. ( Cool

.50227 to (5).50227 to (12).50028. I wonder what kind of a programming error could cause this.

Ding ding ding we have a winner! At least we know that they're doing integer matching. And we can also conclude that either they have no regression testing in place, or it's grossly insufficient, 'cause this is just a stupid programming error that should be caught by automated regression testing.

dooglus

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johnj

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Quote from: dooglus on September 11, 2011, 05:19:00 PM

Here's the part of http://mtgox.com/api/0/data/getDepth.php where the price spiked. Note the isolated trades over $10. Looks like it must be a bug in the order matching:

Ruh roh

dooglus

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Here's the part of http://mtgox.com/api/0/data/getTrades.php where the price spiked. Note the isolated trades over $10. Looks like it must be a bug in the order matching:

Code:

{"date":1315753350,"price":"8.56343","amount":"0.1","price_int":"856343","amount_int":"10000000","tid":"1315753350781803","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753350,"price":"8.51303","amount":"36.81","price_int":"851303","amount_int":"3681000000","tid":"1315753350846659","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753350,"price":"5.51206","amount":"0.51","price_int":"551206","amount_int":"51000000","tid":"1315753350870615","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753350,"price":"5.51205","amount":"9.51","price_int":"551205","amount_int":"951000000","tid":"1315753350900809","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753350,"price":"8.51105","amount":"4.05","price_int":"851105","amount_int":"405000000","tid":"1315753350960337","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753350,"price":"8.51103","amount":"28.5702","price_int":"851103","amount_int":"2857020000","tid":"1315753350982440","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753351,"price":"8.51102","amount":"3.05","price_int":"851102","amount_int":"305000000","tid":"1315753351004599","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753351,"price":"10.50328","amount":"5","price_int":"1050328","amount_int":"500000000","tid":"1315753351032421","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753352,"price":"8.50227","amount":"33.99","price_int":"850227","amount_int":"3399000000","tid":"1315753352779862","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753352,"price":"8.50227","amount":"10.6","price_int":"850227","amount_int":"1060000000","tid":"1315753352983925","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753353,"price":"8.50227","amount":"6.885","price_int":"850227","amount_int":"688500000","tid":"1315753353111261","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753353,"price":"5.50227","amount":"2.84442602","price_int":"550227","amount_int":"284442602","tid":"1315753353208319","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753362,"price":"5.50227","amount":"35","price_int":"550227","amount_int":"3500000000","tid":"1315753362025600","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753374,"price":"5.50217","amount":"1.1","price_int":"550217","amount_int":"110000000","tid":"1315753374882708","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753407,"price":"5.50217","amount":"19","price_int":"550217","amount_int":"1900000000","tid":"1315753407440568","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753408,"price":"12.50028","amount":"50.56934435","price_int":"1250028","amount_int":"5056934435","tid":"1315753408850547","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
{"date":1315753420,"price":"5.50207","amount":"21","price_int":"550207","amount_int":"2100000000","tid":"1315753420123491","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753420,"price":"5.50227","amount":"9","price_int":"550227","amount_int":"900000000","tid":"1315753420149017","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},
{"date":1315753445,"price":"5.50227","amount":"8.51","price_int":"550227","amount_int":"851000000","tid":"1315753445862485","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid"},

edit (Sun Sep 11 19:39:05 PDT 2011) : fixed URL - getTrades,php, not getDepth.php

dooglus

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Quote from: Nagle on September 11, 2011, 01:45:19 PM

Quote

Mt. Gox isn't saying what their FOREX fees and spreads are. If they're buying and selling currencies with no spread and no fee other than their Bitcoin trading fee, they're exploitable.

They don't say, but if you look any non-USD orderbook you can see by the gap between bid and ask prices that they're charging 2.5% on all non-USD trades in addition to the 0.6% or so commission. So they're fine so long as they're within 3% of the correct price.

mb300sd

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Drunk Posts

Quote from: rebuilder on September 11, 2011, 04:14:03 PM

Quote from: Nagle on September 11, 2011, 03:29:50 PM

With Mt. Gox having a flaky period again, I'd suggest pulling all assets out of Mt. Gox. If you're not going to trade it in the next 24

I considered this. Unfortunately, withdrawing EUR ( in my case) is too much of a hassle, and converting my USD assets to Bitcoin to withdraw seems very risky at this point.

I think you can open a Dwolla without a bank account and just transfer usd between it and mtgox.

rebuilder

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Quote from: Nagle on September 11, 2011, 03:29:50 PM

With Mt. Gox having a flaky period again, I'd suggest pulling all assets out of Mt. Gox. If you're not going to trade it in the next 24

I considered this. Unfortunately, withdrawing EUR ( in my case) is too much of a hassle, and converting my USD assets to Bitcoin to withdraw seems very risky at this point.

fcmatt

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well whatever happened.. i was glad to sell a few more BTC above 6 dollars today.

edited to add: hurry up transfer.. i want to shortly sell a couple more above 7 if things go right ;-)

dserrano5

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Quote from: Nagle on September 11, 2011, 03:29:50 PM

If you're not going to trade it in the next 24 hours, get your money out.

24 hours is more than enough to see the price reach that $2 some people is talking about. Now *that* is a serious buying opportunity in the short term.

Nagle

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With Mt. Gox having a flaky period again, I'd suggest pulling all assets out of Mt. Gox. If you're not going to trade it in the next 24 hours, get your money out. You can always put it back in later if you want to trade.

(This can't cause a "run" on Mt. Gox, since they supposedly have 100% of the customer's assets. And if they don't, it's better to know sooner than later.)

Nagle

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Quote from: anu on September 11, 2011, 02:08:03 PM

Quote from: Nagle on September 11, 2011, 01:45:19 PM

Mt. Gox isn't saying what their FOREX fees and spreads are. If they're buying and selling currencies with no spread and no fee other than their Bitcoin trading fee, they're exploitable.

I am under the impression that you always have to go through Bitcoin on MtGox. That makes 2 fees for each currency conversion.

Currently the only withdrawal options on their site are USD and EUR. It's not clear that they fully support transactions in other currencies.

BCEmporium

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TradeHill already has it, and it doesn't mean you can trade USD for EUR there, for an instance, it just means you can buy or sell BTC from and to USD or EUR. If you want to convert USD to EUR you would need to go through BTC first.

anu

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RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol

Quote from: Nagle on September 11, 2011, 01:45:19 PM

Mt. Gox isn't saying what their FOREX fees and spreads are. If they're buying and selling currencies with no spread and no fee other than their Bitcoin trading fee, they're exploitable.

I am under the impression that you always have to go through Bitcoin on MtGox. That makes 2 fees for each currency conversion.

Nagle

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Quote

I'm betting on another MtGox bug. They've just opened 15 new currencies. Chances are something went wrong.

That's what I suspect.

Now that Mt. Gox offers trading in multiple currencies, they're effectively a FOREX market. That may draw the attention of people who aren't interested in Bitcoins, but can take advantage of Mt. Gox's general ineptitude. If Mt. Gox gets a currency conversion rate even slightly wrong, they can be clobbered.

Mt. Gox isn't saying what their FOREX fees and spreads are. If they're buying and selling currencies with no spread and no fee other than their Bitcoin trading fee, they're exploitable.

Villem Anton

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Quote from: RandyMarsh on September 11, 2011, 12:55:05 PM

...

I have a trade at over 6, exceuted 30 seconds after that, there was deffinetly no drop, I however had a buy order in at 4.89 similtaniously which did not get filled. So gox is up to its old tricks of selectively filling random orders, so the data is correct, trades are being executed at these ridiculous prices randomly, thus defeating the point of the exchange.

Mark Karpeles, Take responsibility.

Well someone should call these amatures at mtgox and have them close trading for now. They most likely have a bug and someone is taking advantage of it at this very moment!

Topic: Massive spike to $7 (then $15.9499) sunday 3PM BST at MtGox (Read 9352 times)