Topic: May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed - page 3. (Read 5584 times)

maybe the BTC Price will rise to 400+ or it stays.
When it stays many miners will shut down.. but then de diff will be more less...
no one can say what will happen

Read the link. seems like the s-3 will still earn money!

a 1 ph farm of s-3's    using .035 cents per kwatt  earns 1737 usd a day.

they may be at 0.025 cents and earn 1929 usd a day.

this farm would still earn up until the halfing.

How will this affect diff.  My guess is stable diff until 50 days or 100 days before the halfing .

I do not know what to think the halfing will do.

I saw the following, and thought a link here would be interesting:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--1072474

I think we'll see the impact of this in the near future, which will mean a positive increase in difficulty. 

@Phil: You might to amend the title to say picks are closed.

It is nice to see almost a negative 2 on difficultly.  This past months have been surprising with number of negatives.

And we are kinda stuck in sub 240 price.  Seems anytime in past week we get over eventually we end up in 230's once again.

here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24
138 5-27  -6        -30

about 1487 made we should be at  1517

1487/1517 =  0.98022   - 1 =  -0.01977  or  (-1.977%) The real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

529 blocks left    (-1.97%) just about a perfect match  since we got past all of the last adjustment in bitcoinwisdom's prediction model


Once again not much change price at 238 usd

yeah    you can look here


https://blockchain.info/address/114J9nTVYHq5ZXA5hKorTLpyF6pxZgL6pf

I really like watching your rental philipma1957.  Is there a way for us to see when/if it hit's blocks? 

I saw the current stat's on speed but not sure how to tell with that pool if your hitting blocks.   Neat idea of you to share it though thanks for doing it.

Ya, this is what I figure too. In particular Inner Mongolia, where a lot of mines are, is hitting summer for the first time for most of these mines. In terms of MW of capacity, about 75% has only been online since September. Even if it doesn't shut the mine down, heat could easily cause a 5% decrease in hash rates.

I did have some nice cool rainy weather. But that changed today and heat got up there.  I was thinking I could wait to install my new gable fan till weekend but if it keeps heating up I might need to turn it into a mid week project.

Summer in the north kicking in I bet.  I know I'm turning a few of mine off now, getting too hot.

I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.

here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24


about 1353 made we should be 1377

1353/1377 =  0.98257   - 1 =  -0.017429  or  (-1.743%)  real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

663 blocks left    (-1.43%)


Once again not much change price at 238 usd

I speculate that part of the reason things are pretty stable is simply the fact that there is no faster tech coming about soon, and no one _has_ to replace their gear to keep pace.

End of last summer the arms race was booming - many new miner hardware tech came about - I went from S1 to Terraminer to S3 within a period of 4 months, each with a different chipset and better, more power efficient.  But, I HAD to, in order to keep up with the diff jumps.  It was expensive, but back then coin was also at $600, which meant I could mine and turn that around for more gear and infrastructure costs for less.

Now my latest gear has been in place since January - S5's and SP31/35 units.  Since then the diff has adjusted a total of around 15-20% in over 5 months, instead of in 5 weeks.  I haven't had to upgrade anything to keep pace with growing diff, and my miners are still very viable and profitable.  In fact they're probably making more now even after the 20% diff increases, since they're now paid off and fully positive ROI has been achieved.

Part of it is the fact that you can't buy any more SPTech gear, so there's no new gear coming out from them.  Bitmain has S5 and S4+, but with the price of BTC, they're really not selling much.  I believe it's related to the price, and the upcoming halving also has an effect.  People may very well be just hanging on to what we have now as they possibly see themselves being out of the game in less than a year.  Who wants to spend a ton of money R&D'ing new gear which can take many months, for what could be very little profit return with coin so low.  If I'm a large mine, and my gear is still very profitable now as it was almost 6 months ago, why would I want to rip it all out for a very marginal increase in profit, and on top of that have to pay back all that hardware I just bought, when I'm still running perfectly fine on what I have.

I agree with a lot of Phil's previous statements - if coin goes up, people power on and chase that profit.  If diff goes up and coin doesn't, gear gets turned off and we dip the next cycle.  There's just not a price point right now that's conducive to profit, especially with summer coming and many places with higher prices for electricity coupled with the need to have even more cooling to offset the extra ambient temps from summer.

my 3 little s-3's will mine until 2016.   I have a low cost for them 2.4 cents winter 3.2 cents summer.  only problem is max power I can burn is 900-1000 watts

they have mined since july of 2014 batch 1 units.

BTC price has been fairly stable for weeks now, very interesting.

I'm about to power down some of my mining for the summer, it's getting too hot in my home office.

The best time as far as ROI in 3 months was GPU's.  You could get them paid for and there was still a gaming market that kept used prices nice if you ever sold.

Yes with asic's its not a bad thing they are not being thrown away.  But I would still love to have my 3 month ROI back.

I don't think that's sad. ROI in 3 months would probably mean you'd have to throw the hardware away after 3 months. Now I'm sure my S3s will reach their 1-year anniversary and they have ROIed 200%+ without even including the resale value.

Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

Morning Bitwisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,460,500,339 (-0.71%)
Adjust time:    After 747 Blocks, About 5.3 days
Hashrate(?):    329,610,766 GH/s

And price hanging around 238.

Pretty sure some companie have low w/gh device but will keep them.
Bitmain can actually right now do 0.3 with th bm1384 so I guess they just wait and slow down the RnD.
Home mining will be harder to do.
 

I could also be looking to far in advance.  But I think having could be coming into play with low btc price.   

Companies can do R/D now with not rushing and spending smart as btc price is low.   And really releasing the < .25 W  if the hardware companies can save till having could allow them to transition very easily without much profit loss with new efficiency.

I think we will see a few before having, but I don't think we will see a huge push.  Which ultimately is good for all this old gear we all got much lower difficulty then most of us thought we would have for past few months.