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As a user who already have experience cashback promotion.
There are always some limits, sometimes based on the "VIP-Rank" you have. If the casino offers cashback 10% and you have a total deposit of 5,000$ you're not gonna get 500$, sometimes there has a maximum like 100$ for 'Silver-VIP' with Turnover. Something like those schemes,
people who are interested in "VIP-TRANSFER" mostly want the bonus too no matter if he losing or not.Perhaps, the casino can created. Every user who are successfully qualifies for VIP-Transfer gets a bonus of maybe 100-300$ no matter whether he on los/wins PNL but with turnover. Maybe 15-20x, I think still make sense and is gonna to make everyone happy (cause turnover under 20x still can be archiveve). Since casino don't want losing, turnover will avoided user to win but with a some good %chance for user to archive the turnover. I bet more then 95% the money will coming back again.
Sometimes, you need to treat it with a bonus no matter if he was losing/winning cause the new user took the part in VIP Transfer are quite brave to leave his previous casino to deposit into new casino (trying to sacrifice in the beginning from the bonus with turnover, for long term progress user). There might be speculation in their heads, okay "METAWIN, give me bonus even not in losing". I will try to stay a while and deposit again to play here to chase more bonus".
If new user who taking VIP-Transfer not getting bonus cause his statistic even or profits, there has some chance he will think to back into his previous casino again due he having high rank + more profitable for the bonus.