Sure, you might get lucky, and you might not.
Michael Saylor on Citron's short bet on MicroStrategy
Even with a lot of short-term upside, shorts could be played on shorter timeframes and be profitable, yet it seems like a gamble since it seems that what Saylor is doing is not even very outrageous, so that buyers of the convertibles can sell once their target price is reached, and so then if the target price is reached, the debt is resolved, and if the target price is not reached, then the debt would just be resolved at the time of its expiry several years down the road and at near zero percent costs to MSTR... It seems like a win win.. so I surely am not opposed to that part of what they seem to be doing.
On a personal level, I am fine with own plain ole boring and regular direct BTC ownership... and I am not bothered about some folks getting more profits than the regular boring BTC-ers like my lil selfie or that Saylor has found and implemented a kind of money glitch that seems to be working pretty damned well (at least so far and some of the products seem fairly innovative and genius) that also seems to pump my bags, too.. and even inspire others to buy BTC and try similar strategies as Saylor/MSTR is employing..
I am also not opposed to having some adventure and diversification in the various ways that we might invest, even if I am not going to do it myself.
Let's say that I have 30 bitcoin and you have 3 bitcoin. I say that I have enough bitcoin so I don't need to be fucking around with these various tools, even though I could increase my stash faster. Let's say that you are able to increase your profits so much that you catch up to me... Am I going to be mad because I could have had done better? I doubt it. I am fine with what I am doing with my hypothetical 30 BTC and it is enough for my lifestyle including whatever other assets I might have and other anticipated costs.
I suppose we could change the hypothetical where we both have 30 BTC, and then I might say? Why you doing that, but then your doing that leads you to have 100 BTC and I only have 30 BTC.
Or we could change it in the other direction, and I have 3 BTC, but I want to get to 30 BTC, then maybe if I had higher aspirations for my BTC, then maybe I might find time to add MSTR to my mix of investments.
He presents his ideas and various ideas about bitcoin quite well, though I am not exactly excited whenever he goes down any path poo-pooing self custody or various kinds of smaller ways that people might use or transact with bitcoin.
I am not horribly bothered by any pushing up of the BTC price that he might be doing, even though some poor people might not have time to get into bitcoin at a fast enough pace as price pressures continue to be upwardly on bitcoin based on Bigger and BIGGER players coming to bitcoin and also employing varius finacialization tools in their acquisition of bitcoin.
2) Saylor/MSTR has accumulated less than 2% of the BTC supply, so I am not sure how much he might be able to get or the impact on the rest of the BTC ecosystem.. especially if he is taking coins off the market and then not doing anything else with the coins.
3) of course, many rich people accumulating BTC drives up BTC prices for everyone else, yet everyone else still should want to get in earlier rather than later, but whatever there are a lot of people, institutions and governments sitting on their hands while guys like Saylor (MSTR) are sucking up as many coins as they believe that they are able to accomplish. I don't see how any of it can be stopped, except just people who know should just accumulate as many BTC as they can too, and yeah there are going to be a lot of people who fail/refuse to aggressively accumulate BTC, so it is just going to cost them more later, in the event that they later decide that they want to get some.
BTC still works whether the price is high or low, and yeah sure it has implications in regards to whether it is high or low, yet I don't see anything to panic about unless you are a no coiner or a low coiner, then you might urgently want to get some BTC... but if you don't want to, then you don't have to... that's fine too.
Even though BlackRock does not own the actual BTC they are custodying, I thought Saylor did not have a chance to keep up with them, yet Saylor really stepped up the game in recent times.
I am doubting if he will be able to keep up with BlackRock's custodying the coins of other, especially since MSTR and Saylor ends up in way smaller ownership of the coins.. but whatever, I am not that wedded to any ideas about who owns what.. at least not so far.. Maybe a few years down the road there might be some need to worry, but I would think that there would not be so many problems so long as each of them actually have the coins they claim to have.
Ongoing BTC buying pressure seems to be coming from a lot of places, and not just Blackrock and Saylor/MSTR.
We cannot stop anyone who holds private keys from selling on the market. That's their choice.
We could try to anticipate how likely it might be to get mass sales like that..., which sure we see those kinds of things some times, and if they come at inopportune times, then all of a sudden BTC is on sale.
That cannot be controlled either. How you going to stop BIG players from buying BTC?
They cannot own it all. Anyone can buy it, and right now you get more than 1,000 satoshis for a dollar, which might not be true for long... but anyone can afford to buy some BTC in case it catches on or in case its price goes up even more than it already is.
I'm now wondering if Saylor's prediction of more than $13m per Bitcoin will materialize. At the pace it is growing, anything's possible.
That is in 21 years. His prediction seems pretty conservative, but yeah, we have around 5.5 cycles between now and 21 years, so that is quite a ways out... so of course, there are likely going to be a lot of changes in bitcoin between now and then...and I am not going to proclaim to know. I expect that there will continue to be ups and downs in bitcoin and also that the general direction is UP like Saylor says.. but yeah, the details are hard to know, to the extent that the details matter in terms of what any of us might plan to do during such time in which we might have also identified what we expect to be ongoing and continuous growth in this asset class in which it is open to anyone to buy.. and sure, those with more discretionary income and those with more access to exchanges or places of buying /selling are going to be advantaged over those who don't have discretionary income or access to exchanges... and so the world is not exactly fair, but having information and acting upon it to our advantage is the most we might be able to expect to be able to do..