Hahahahaha
I agree with a lot of what you were saying jaysabi, and I was about to send you a merit for outlining the situation like that, until you started beating up upon so called "bitcoin maximalists."
I don't know that I'm "beating up on them" unless identifying their motivation to believe what they believe is
beating up on them. If you disagree, say why. I note that you only seemed to disagree but didn't say what in my assessment made it wrong in your opinion. I'll hear it out.
I already said what I was going to say.. it was my response, and I believe that I backed it up or explained myself sufficiently. You do not need to agree (and of course, it appears that you do not).
I'm just trying to square what the maximalists say vs. what their actions would show if they were true believers. Because if you were convinced that bitcoin was going to make you rich, like guaranteed rich, and it was only a matter of time, you would want to be buying as much as you can at as low of a price as you can.
Not necessarily. The future is based on a series of probabilities, and also individuals have cashflow concerns as well. Sure some people might be able to lump sum invest, but others are better able to manage their investments by figuring out their individual circumstances and then dollar cost averaging and attempting to reach their investment target with the passage of time - and hopefully as their wealth (or net worth) increases.
That would require NOT spreading the gospel to keep the price as low as possible for as long as possible.
Maybe, maybe not. People have all kinds of ways of communicating their own strategies and their beliefs.
But that's not what they're doing, so then I try to figure out why they're evangelizing if it's against their own economic interests if they're such true believers, and the conclusion I've reached is the one I already stated.
Your further explanation sounds more crazy than your earlier post. i was all with you on the overall theory until you got into specifics. Perhaps I find that you are trying to lump too many people into some kind of similar category.
It's not about being right, it's about convincing others they're right because that's the only thing that sustains or increases the price. I see the same behavior and motivations with short sellers. Being "right" about their bet isn't the point, what causes price movements is other people agreeing they're right. That does not mean to say that I think bitcoin holders are in a desperate situation, as you characterized my point, so let me dispel that notion. I'm only making a comment on motivation and likening it what I see in other (non-bitcoin) markets, because no matter the medium (bitcoin, stocks, etc.), economic motivation dictates actions.
There is some truth in what you are saying, but still seems like you are trying to take one angle too far when price is affected by a multitude of factors, including some of the ones that you are pointing out. I don't feel that I need to say anything more than what I have already said on this particular topic... at least not at this point.
It's nearly impossible to have a spirited discussion with you because it's never clear you're understanding my point you're responding to (which could entirely be my fault for expressing it horribly!) but also because your responses are so vague and abstract that further response wouldn't be intelligible.
Well that's too bad. I guess.
For example, You: "Maybe, maybe not. People have all kinds of ways of communicating their owns strategies and their beliefs." I know what this means generally, but how does this respond specifically to the very specific point I'm raising to which you are responding?
It is probably not as difficult to figure out as you are trying to make it out to be.
That being, that if you think Bitcoin is going to the moon, how does having it go to the moon
I doubt that I said that bitcoin is going to the moon. But I did say that there are three great current bitcoin price prediction models namely: stock to flow, 4 year fractal and s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects. The ideas behind those models should be accounted for.
NOW benefit you in the long term
I am already benefiting from bitcoin, so I look at that 208 week moving average which is at about $7,200, and it is quite a bit into my fuck you status territory.. so I am good in this range and if BTC prices go up, I am even MOAR better.
when keeping the price as low as possible so you can buy as much as possible over time would ultimately result in you having far more money in the future?
sure.. people who are accumulating might think that way. I am not in a BTC accumulation phase. I am largely in maintenance, and I could be in liquidation if I wanted, but I am not really in a rush for that, either.
This specifically is what I'm talking about when I say that the "evangelists" are working against their own economic interests if they actually believe what they say.
Good for you. If you are attempting to make a point, then probably you need to be specific in some regards.
Earlier mass adoption = higher prices sooner = less bitcoin you could have bought at cheaper prices = less future money for you.
Are we talking about the future? or the past?
I am more about going with it is rather than trying to prescribe some kind of desired direction.. just go with the flow and figure out ways to profit from that.
This is a very specific premise I've raised, so how is the vague response you answered with even addressing the premise?
If we are talking about what someone who is considering getting into bitcoin should do, then first they should figure out their situation and then try to stack sats and accumulate until they reach their targets. Bitcoin does not give any shits if you want it to go up or down.. you just have to do your best based on what you believe might happen and what you believe your situation to be and how you can maneuver your own situation in order NOT to over extend yourself financially or psychologically.
Without a specific example to illustrate your counterpoint, it looks like you're just dismissing it without a basis for it.
Well if you are trying to make some kind of point, then back it up. I think that I said whatever I was going to say already.
I don't mean to be rude, I just can't have a conversation about such vague ideas when it's clear we're both talking past each other.
Ok. we can pause for now, until you say something again that might cause me to respond. Then I will respond, if I so choose.
