Topic: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ - page 61. (Read 20690 times)

Companies like this really move btc higher in the mid-term

I already said what I was going to say.. it was my response, and I believe that I backed it up or explained myself sufficiently.  You do not need to agree (and of course, it appears that you do not).


Not necessarily.  The future is based on a series of probabilities, and also individuals have cashflow concerns as well.  Sure some people might be able to lump sum invest, but others are better able to manage their investments by figuring out their individual circumstances and then dollar cost averaging and attempting to reach their investment target with the passage of time - and hopefully as their wealth (or net worth) increases.



Maybe, maybe not.  People have all kinds of ways of communicating their own strategies and their beliefs.


Your further explanation sounds more crazy than your earlier post.  i was all with you on the overall theory until you got into specifics.  Perhaps I find that you are trying to lump too many people into some kind of similar category.


There is some truth in what you are saying, but still seems like you are trying to take one angle too far when price is affected by a multitude of factors, including some of the ones that you are pointing out.  I don't feel that I need to say anything more than what I have already said on this particular topic...  at least not at this point.

I don't know that I'm "beating up on them" unless identifying their motivation to believe what they believe is beating up on them.  If you disagree, say why.  I note that you only seemed to disagree but didn't say what in my assessment made it wrong in your opinion.  I'll hear it out.  I'm just trying to square what the maximalists say vs. what their actions would show if they were true believers.  Because if you were convinced that bitcoin was going to make you rich, like guaranteed rich, and it was only a matter of time, you would want to be buying as much as you can at as low of a price as you can.  That would require NOT spreading the gospel to keep the price as low as possible for as long as possible.  But that's not what they're doing, so then I try to figure out why they're evangelizing if it's against their own economic interests if they're such true believers, and the conclusion I've reached is the one I already stated.  It's not about being right, it's about convincing others they're right because that's the only thing that sustains or increases the price.  I see the same behavior and motivations with short sellers.  Being "right" about their bet isn't the point, what causes price movements is other people agreeing they're right.  That does not mean to say that I think bitcoin holders are in a desperate situation, as you characterized my point, so let me dispel that notion.  I'm only making a comment on motivation and likening it what I see in other (non-bitcoin) markets, because no matter the medium (bitcoin, stocks, etc.), economic motivation dictates actions.

I think some are using their services because they don't know how to deal with crypto and they feel secure that someone is holding their assets. But for most crypto users here, of course, we want to hold our own bitcoins. We feel safe if it is in our wallets. Those companies are banking from their investors' insufficient knowledge in handling crypto portfolio. Or we can think also that some are lazy looking into crypto, and they just want an established company to do their business.

The company is entirely controlled by Saylor.  Board can't even check him, he can appoint anyone to the board on account of his control of voting shares, so he's naturally only appointed yes-men.  If you're buying in, you're buying into Saylor's leadership specifically.

Investing in MicroStrategy in order to invest in Bitcoin seems dumb.  If you want to invest in bitcoin, just invest in bitcoin.  The more middlemen you put between you and bitcoin the more things can go wrong.

Seems to me that we don't really disagree in any kind of meaningful sense even if we might have differing ways of characterizing Saylor's actions or the potential repercussions of such actions on the company or the bitcoin market more broadly. 

So seems no need to take my characterizations personally... for example, if I assert that you are emphasizing negativisms too much.. that's my opinion.. and of course, you likely believe that you are attempting to be realistic (or more realistic) in the way you post or what you emphasize about the situation that you see. 

Does not seem to be a BIG deal to me that members are going to post from differing perspectives and emphasize differing angles in regards to even seeing similar facts but speculating differently about the ramifications of such facts.


Hahahahaha

I agree with a lot of what you were saying jaysabi, and I was about to send you a merit for outlining the situation like that, until you started beating up upon so called "bitcoin maximalists."

In other words, the punchline of your post seems to attempt to describe a situation as if bitcoin maximalists (to the extent that there is such a thing) are in a kind of desperate position, currently,... which seems to be far from the actual current bitcoin price dynamics posture or the underlying forces that seem to be ongoingly contributing to UPpity pressures upon corns.

In other words, Bitcoin is in a great position, currently, even if it were to drop to retest $12k (40% correction from the most recent top of $19,918) or some other kind of extreme level of "unexpected bearishness" and likely the actual position of bitcoin currently is better than expected from the perspective of many so called "bitcoin maximalists."  Sure, in any camp there are going to be pie in the sky people who are shocked by any kind of BTC correction or they largely expect the BTC price to ONLY go up.. blah blah blah.. but the reality of the matter is that 30%, 40% or even 50% corrections can happen in bitcoin even during a bullrun.. but still does not mean that they are going to happen just because they can.

So yeah market/price direction of bitcoin or any other asset can be pushed in part by propaganda, but there are quite a few other factors at play too that propaganda might not be able to overcome, and we have seen it many times in bitcoin's history in which it seemed that the doomers and gloomers were out there outlining the so many reasons that bitcoin was going to move down before up or even move down without coming up or some other variations of the theory, and those folks ended up chasing after the train and bitcoin prices did not end up going down as they had propagated.. and those supposed lower prices that were inevitable (or highly likely) were never seen again in bitcoin.

You see the same type of actions and motivations with short sellers who take massive short positions against a stock and then very publicly list all the things wrong with the company.  The reason they do this is not because they themselves believe it's true (though I'm sure that is the case), but more importantly they need everyone else to agree with them in order to profit.  It's not enough to be right, you need other people to agree you're right.  Same with MicroStrategy and everyone else taking positions in Bitcoin.  Because there is no intrinsic value, they only profit if everyone agrees with them and pushes the price up.  That's why the bitcoin maximalists are so loud.  It's not about being right, it's about you believing they're right, and those two things aren't the same.

JayJuanGee, here we go again. I am not spreading neither doom nor gloom: I have shared what I felt it was in line with my thinking. The market is always right, any market. Anyway you are right on one thing, because I believe MS is betting other people's money.

You are projecting doom and gloom, acquafredda.. and sure, likely many traditional financial folks are considering his various moves to be employing too much gambling and too much doubling down, almost like the Martingale method which has odds that are against it.

So sure it will be interesting to see how these strategies might play out over the coming one to two years.  He is not making short term plays in regards to what the market might think in the short term, so I doubt that your emphasis on short term perception is likely how Saylor (and perhaps his team) is thinking about these matters - and hopefully his legal counsel is solid enough to ensure that he does not experience too many costs in that direction.. Of course, there are always going to be some legal costs when dealing with decently large public companies, and even interesting kinds of costs with such bold (and seemingly exploratory) moves such as the ones that Saylor is trying out.   He is surely getting a lot of attention with these moves, and I doubt that attention whore explains what he is seeking, either (at least not completely).   

Michael Saylor is getting crazy, I guess. Wild move.
Investors clearly were not enthusiastic about the announcement. Nor was Citi analyst Tyler Radke, who downgraded the company's stock from neutral to sell. Radke believes MicroStrategy's share price gains have become "overextended," and that this new debt offering and bitcoin-buying strategy make the company an incrementally riskier investment.
Why MicroStrategy Stock Is Tumbling Today

In the end this is not Michael Saylor's money, but someone else's.

Microstrategy is going to officially turn into a Bitcoin Hedge Fund in disguise:

MicroStrategy Announces Pricing of Offering of Convertible Senior Notes



If they use this sales proceeds to buy Bitcoin, they are going to add roughly 30,000 BTC to their assets. This will take them to a total of 70,000 BTC, or 0.39% of total Bitcoin supply.

They really seem to go all-in to Bitcoin, but even they as a company are limited in the amount of money they own, and with which they can buy Bitcoin or is there some catch (lending or borrowing money) with which they would still continue to buy even more BTC? Michael Saylor has obviously gone crazy for BTC, and from several videos I’ve watched it is evident that the man is fascinated with the same to the point that he intends to put all the eggs in the same basket.

---

Saylor is the majority shareholder and can actually make any decision on his own - others are just politely informed, but they can’t stop decisions like this. If memory serves me well, I think I have read that shareholders agreed with the decision in the original investment decision, so I believe that is the case now as well.

They are leaning more towards the later at this point.
I was actually very speculative about their intentions from the beginning; it would have been difficult to hold bitcoins for at least hundred years and remain only a holder even though they already had a good investor base. Also Saylor has dedicated his social handles to discuss Bitcoin and its fundamentals, very little else is talked about in relation to MSTR, so it makes sense to switch into hedge fund or add it as a branch of the company, while creating competition for Grayscale.
It's however still pretty early to judge with certainty the direction the company is going, looking in from outside.

I would assume stakeholders and board members have a say in some of these decisions and would probably be aware of the long term plans of the company.

They are unstoppable.

MicroStrategy Plans $400M Raise; Net Proceeds Will Fund More Bitcoin Buys

Full statement





I start questioning MicroStrategy nature here. What are they? A software company or a bitcoin hedge fund? I never saw anyone issuing debt to buy...their treasury asset.
It make sense to be a bitcoin hedge fund, but let’s make it clear for all your stakeholders.

Regardless of how we feel about them, they are one of the biggest OTC brokers in the west, and they are highly focused on regulatory compliance and licensing, which may be attractive to a large public company. I wouldn't expect past exchange outages to factor into this type of decision since it would obviously be matched OTC.

I cannot really agree with your characterization that I bolded above, Harriti.

Sure there are some major financial institutions in the USA that are getting on the bitcoin bandwagon.. but surely a quite minority--- but even with a minority of financial institutions entering into bitcoin, that is likely to have a quite bullish effect on BTC prices - absent some anomalies along the way.

So, yeah, surely this contagion is bullish for bitcoin prices.. and likely going to continue to have snowballing effects - even though we cannot presume that the price movement and the trend is "in the bag" or guaranteed - even though odds and the set up look quite wonderful for both BTC HODLers and any new entrants into the space... who might be able to front run some of the anticipated ongoing BTC accumulation momentum that seems to be taking place.



Well the poor better get their fucking shit together and start buying bitcoin.. otherwise, you are correct they are going to have to pay higher prices.  This is an informational matter, not a matter of how much money that anyone has.. of course, the more disposable income that anyone has, the better they are able to benefit, relatively speaking.

There are likely going to be plenty of poor (*or not very rich folks) who end up benefiting from this ongoing transfer of wealth, and those who are informed and start to actually act on their information are going to benefit the most, relatively speaking... and sure there are a lot of normies who either are not informed or they are NOT acting with the information because of whatever reasons, including some of them believing nonsensical thoughts that seem to kind of be contained in your post, 7788bitcoin, suggesting that it might be too late.. blah blah blah..

If you look at that concept of capitalist then only the rich will be investing in bitcoin considering the price keeps on rising and you cannot expect poor people to invest in bitcoin expecting them to use it as a currency. It is a fine line if you consider things on that aspect and anyone who invested in it from the beginning can earn a huge profit.

When the market is rallying we hear all the positive news and that is the same during the last rally and hence it is not a big surprise after all .

This is a sign that the price of Bitcoin will soon surpass the $ 20k price point towards a new much higher ATH. The major financial institutions in the US now no longer seem interested in foreign exchange, their truth is Bitcoin and they are investing more and more money in Bitcoin.
Maybe they will create a new trend in this Crypto market by pushing the price of Bitcoin even higher, maybe we will see Bitcoin at 30k $ early in Q2 2021.

They did it again:


https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1334990791496884224?s=20

Here a brief recap of their holdings: they bought very close to the ATH, still they are 60% in the money!



[LINK]


EDIT: Added this recap in OP.

There should always be an analyst in the big company. A company like micro strategy will never take a big decision like that without tried to analyze the potential of bitcoin in the future.
1 thing that i know about the bitcoin if bitcoin has limited supply and this gives a clue for the future of bitcoin.
no inflation and that will become a rare thing in the future.