When Will International Tourism Recover?Summarizing 2020, international tourism dropped 70%, and the optimistic recovery scenario says it will spring back up no sooner than Q3 2021, according to the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). “UNWTO’s Panel of Experts foresees a rebound in international tourism mostly in the third quarter of 2021, however, around 20% of experts suggested the rebound could occur only in 2022”, says the report. There are a number of obstacles the industry is facing on the way to the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment, the lack of coordinated response among countries to ensure coordinated restrictions, as well as the deteriorating economic environment.
“The drop until August represented 700 million fewer arrivals compared to the same period in 2019 and translated into a loss of $730bn in export revenues from international tourism. This was more than eight times the loss experienced on the back of the 2009 global economic and financial crisis”, the report points out.
According to the UNWTO, international arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year.
All world regions recorded large declines: Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer from the impact of COVID-19, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals, followed by Africa and the Middle East (both - 69%), Europe (-68%) and the Americas (-65%).
“Following its gradual reopening of international borders, Europe recorded comparatively smaller declines in July and August (-72% and -69%, respectively). The recovery was short-lived however, as travel restrictions and advisories were reintroduced amid an increase in contagions”, says UNWTO.
On the other side of the spectrum, Asia and the Pacific recorded the largest declines with -96% in both months, reflecting the closure of borders in China and other major destinations in the region.
The organisation concludes its report by saying “Demand for travel remains largely subdued due to the ongoing uncertainty about the pandemic and low confidence. Based on the latest trends, UNWTO expected an overall drop close to 70% for the whole of 2020”.
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