Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 17. (Read 118254 times)
we are back +1000$
So I guess the "crash" has just moved us back to more "normal" growth at this point?
I guess the good thing is that each rise shows us that we are on our way to those new highs. It should give us some confidence of where Bitcoin is going anyways.
I guess the good thing is that each rise shows us that we are on our way to those new highs. It should give us some confidence of where Bitcoin is going anyways.
chart, I have not found a reason to adjust the plots of this Andrews Pitchfork and more reasons to leave it on.
So... sell at US$1K until April?
No... you...
No... you...
The target price for December is somewhere around $420 (if I can see clearly from the chart)
So, the price of $1100 is 2.6X trend. Which is in orange territory(not red yet). Maybe sell a small portion if needed, I do not recommend selling all as the trend catch up pretty quickly at 20% a month.
So... sell at US$1K until April?
No... you...
No... you...
Can we get an update on the graph in the OP?
14,000,000,000 % INCREASE.
there's your division by zero - considering that in 2008, bitcoin value was zero, now we literally look at an infinite rise
Incorrect. Bitcoin did not exist in 2008. What Sirius sold in 2009 for $5 was exactly the same thing that, if kept, would now be worth $5M.
The market cap and the 14B% is of course a publicity stunt, but the 1M% increase is very much real. He told this to me in person.
This progression happens in every starting endeavor.
It begins with nothing, and progresses.
Why the hyperbole?
Bitcoin is in beta, (I remind myself of this every time I re-balance my meager portfolio to keep no asset above 5%.)
It is still the early days, though Bitcoin is getting a bit overextended with all the current attention.
Its all good though, just yet another test which makes us stronger in an antifragile way.
It begins with nothing, and progresses.
Why the hyperbole?
Bitcoin is in beta, (I remind myself of this every time I re-balance my meager portfolio to keep no asset above 5%.)
It is still the early days, though Bitcoin is getting a bit overextended with all the current attention.
Its all good though, just yet another test which makes us stronger in an antifragile way.
14,000,000,000 % INCREASE.
there's your division by zero - considering that in 2008, bitcoin value was zero, now we literally look at an infinite rise
Now, it seems that I accidentally destroyed my calculation sheet 
, so perhaps the ones who helped me previously, can recalculate the trendline and redraw the chart. Because the new value is above the previous trendline, it should steepen/raise it ever so slightly.
[…]
The current price of $1,144 is 249% ahead, which is an amber light that there is a high probability of a deep crash.
, so perhaps the ones who helped me previously, can recalculate the trendline and redraw the chart. Because the new value is above the previous trendline, it should steepen/raise it ever so slightly.[…]
The current price of $1,144 is 249% ahead, which is an amber light that there is a high probability of a deep crash.
To whoever does the charts: could we have a chart in which the regression is plotted as y=0 and the price is drawn above of below it? The current price of 1144 would be plotted at 2.49. Useful to judge the over(bought,sold) conditions quickly and reliably.
Imagine the market cap growth from sirius selling BTC5,000 for $5 at the time when it was 5% of the bitcoins (market cap = $100) to the 14 billion of today. That is:
14,000,000,000 % INCREASE. WE ARE ALREADY IN ALPHA CENTAURI; WHO CARES ABOUT THE REMAINING LOCAL BUS TRIP!!!!!!
14,000,000,000 % INCREASE. WE ARE ALREADY IN ALPHA CENTAURI; WHO CARES ABOUT THE REMAINING LOCAL BUS TRIP!!!!!!
In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation
It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?
I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.
A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.
I am not surprised, Bitcoin is the first significant asset in the history to have its price completely decided by the market, thus the meteoric rise, think a moment how many folds will Google's stock price multiplies had they IPOed at near $0.
November datapoint is here!
517.00
Now, it seems that I accidentally destroyed my calculation sheet , so perhaps the ones who helped me previously, can recalculate the trendline and redraw the chart. Because the new value is above the previous trendline, it should steepen/raise it ever so slightly.
Compared to previous trendtarget, the November price was 56% ahead, so not exactly cheap.
The current price of $1,144 is 249% ahead, which is an amber light that there is a high probability of a deep crash.
Especially notable is that the $600-$1,200 area has seen (relatively) very little volume, evidenced by the monthly vwa of only $517.
517.00
Now, it seems that I accidentally destroyed my calculation sheet
, so perhaps the ones who helped me previously, can recalculate the trendline and redraw the chart. Because the new value is above the previous trendline, it should steepen/raise it ever so slightly.Compared to previous trendtarget, the November price was 56% ahead, so not exactly cheap.
The current price of $1,144 is 249% ahead, which is an amber light that there is a high probability of a deep crash.
Especially notable is that the $600-$1,200 area has seen (relatively) very little volume, evidenced by the monthly vwa of only $517.
I am not worried about new money drying up, the general population is just beginning to discover bitcoin and the Chinese have just begun trading.
Personally I think we will have to wait for some time before the there is a serious dip.
Personally I think we will have to wait for some time before the there is a serious dip.
The dip will come when you least expect it. How many truly, honestly expect a dip that could come today, or any day now?
I do. But there are not many. Hopefully tomorrow and the November average will show how ridiculously ahead of the trend it has suddenly become by rising so much in just 1 month.
I am not worried about new money drying up, the general population is just beginning to discover bitcoin and the Chinese have just begun trading.
Personally I think we will have to wait for some time before the there is a serious dip.
Personally I think we will have to wait for some time before the there is a serious dip.
@rpietila. Will you make a new graph with a new trend line when the November figures are in?
I can make the trendline equation + adjust the targets, someone else can post the new graph and I update the OP.
At any rate, we are now seriously above/ahead of the trendline, which means that there is a much greater downside risk (more probable and more deeper) than most of us believe. I am afraid that if the current holders have not sold because it's going to the moon, the suddenly feel an urge to sell at $500 because even that price gives quite a return for bitcoins that have been owned for more than 2 months. Meanwhile the new money will dry up. That 2 weeks ago was not a crash does not mean that now would not be. It is much more probable now as we are higher.
A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.
You pick an arbitrary transaction between private parties to create some irrational hyperbole.
The first bitcoin<->fiat transaction is hardly arbitrary.
Quote
I guess you will delete this post too.
Of course. You are embarrassing yourself with off-topic rant in a thread that is especially dedicated to finding out about the price history in pre-exchange period. It is like jumping in a surgery room and disturbing everyone saying: "surgery is arbitrary!!". Perhaps, but that's what we do here. Now, go attend to your own business.
In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation
It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?
I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.
A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.
You pick an arbitrary transaction between private parties to create some irrational hyperbole.
Heck if I note that Dori in a Thirld World country internet cafe gave me free internet access ($0.25 per hour normally) in exchange for my promise to share some of the ownership of Art-O-matic, then does that mean I count the gain after 3 years of the $1.2 million IPO valuation that I was offered in 2001 as a counter-example to your claim.
Have you priced the Tulip mania in comparison? Are you sure you really want to show the "investment" only matches manias and not real investments throughout history?
The gloating is what people who deserve to lose their talents do, because they aren't productive any more, because they've been made too rich to do any real work.
I guess you will delete this post too.
As I understand it he is trying to find the very first transaction to get a relevant starting point. I don't find that arbitrary.
In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation
It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?
I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.
A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.
You pick an arbitrary transaction between private parties to create some irrational hyperbole.
Heck if I note that Dori in a Thirld World country internet cafe gave me free internet access ($0.25 per hour normally) in exchange for my promise to share some of the ownership of Art-O-matic, then does that mean I count the gain after 3 years of the $1.2 million IPO valuation that I was offered in 2001 as a counter-example to your claim.
Have you priced the Tulip mania in comparison? Are you sure you really want to show the "investment" only matches manias and not real investments throughout history?
The gloating is what people who deserve to lose their talents do, because they aren't productive any more, because they've been made too rich to do any real work.
I guess you will delete this post too.
While i respect your opinion as much as anyones, i strongly disagree with your belief of how bitcoin is a malevolent innovation destined to fail and possibly cause major damage.
I have read through several of your posts, and most notably is your constant tendency to reference existent companies, as if bitcoin is even remotely close to a company. You can't estimate or predict the future of bitcoin by "logical economic speculation" using traditional knowledge. This is not a company, this is not a stock. This is bitcoin, a digital cryptocurrency with tendencies we've never seen the likes of.
People need to start realizing that in order to predict the future of bitcoin and evaluate it's risk of failure, you need to think about the psychological nature of the population. You need to estimate when information reaches certain demographics of the population, and how the infrastructure is being developed. The development of the protocol is also important to keep an eye on, as it is being worked on constantly and will most definitely improve on a faster pace given increased interest and market cap. People invest when they see potential growth in the future. Bitcoin will fail when the population loses that faith entirely.
In my personal opinion, i believe there will come a day when stabilization of bitcoin is completely possible. It requires these aforementioned steps to be fulfilled successfully, and i believe they will be. Everyone is entitled to their personal opinion, but i suggest a more open-minded, liberal view, when trying to predict the future of such a revolutionary innovation.
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