Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 21. (Read 118266 times)

Despite my minds natural tendency to want to improve on better, and better - even when it is already amazing and life changing, I will follow Risto's (I now know your name ) guidance and the wisdom in GCI's post and listen to the great speculator:

Quoted from the investment classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" written in the early 20th C by a famous speculator called Jesse Livermore:
Quote
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

Quote
"I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience to sit tight. Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end."

Bitcoin has corrected my over-thinking behavior quite violently many times now over the last couple of years. Hard as it is, "sitting" is my current spiritual discipline and bitcoin practice.


Edit = Addendum: I was pm'd and reminded that Livermore died broke by suicide. That does take a little of the shine off the quotes  ... but you get the point.

Sir, it would be beneficial for you to acknowledge that under mental pressure even the brightest of us can go bonkers and grow sour, like the OP and some others of us can witness from personal experience. But happily there is a simple remedy; Take a break from Bitcoin and after some months come back refreshed.

There's no need to worry about every one of us bitcoin holders. You will have your drama, yes, not all of us will be part of it however. Through our newly grown wealth we will either have come up with the means to circumvent the cusp of total slavery personally, or developed collaboration to mitigate or altogether avert the impending doom.

I think we all agree with you that you'd better stop spending your days writing what is - witty but - essentially unproductive crap on the fora. Please go to work and develop the altcoin that will save the world, the one supreme system for whose implementation I - and likely numerous others - have offered you assistance in private. But like we humans often inadvertently do, you procrastinate and always come back to only talk. Why don't you just walk the walk? It would be so much better!

Agreed of course on the undeniable math in your post. And good to see that you realize there must be a final target, and a permanent crash from the trendline.

However, one thing apparently all of you are not factoring in your analysis, is that none of that nor diversification can likely help you.

Imagine what happens when this 21st century tulip mania ponzi scheme crashes.

This will make Bernie Madoff look like a flea an elephant's arse.

Not $1 billion, but $1 trillion of private investors' wealth will go poof.

So of course the government will be asked to clawback all the gains from those who profited from the ponzi scheme.

And of course you will end up paying taxes on your gains, even after they confiscate them from you.

YOU WILL END UP IN JAIL because you won't be able to pay the taxes after they confiscate the "ill gotten ponzi scheme gains", if you invest and profit on Bitcoin. Governments don't act rationally towards people that are hated by society. There will be much jealously and anger towards those who profited on BitCON.

The taxes will be raised also (retroactive net worth taxes will come for Europeans), but that is besides the point.

Do you really think you can profit for doing nothing? You have added nothing to society and are only stealing from it. I will be laughing at you as you go to jail. You deserve it.

Mark my word.

Now I am really done here.

Have fun flaming me. I will not reply again.

Excellent post! I am interested in seeing what the November average turns out to be, and how it affects the trendline and trendtargets.

I suspect that the bigger the pool of btc holders, the harder it is for the spot price to stay far from the trend line for as long. So over time the spot price line will tend to straighten and follow the trend line more closely.

The other thing that occurs to me is that the price can still crash and stay higher than the trend line, if it started far enough above it.

Very intriguing to find that original chart which seems to obey the real life BTC trend up to this point! When analyzing whether the current bubbly situation is overbought and how much, it should be emphasized once again that the trend rises rapidly causing misperception in the theoretical "equilibrium value" at any point in future.



Not more than a couple of weeks ago we broke the trendline uphill at $300 and now are about double the theoritical equilibrium target. However with the target rising fast it will reach $700 by Feb-March 2014 after which anything below that is undervalued.

It could be that BTC remains above the trendline for long, like it did for 17 months in late 2010 gaining a maximum of 80x ($32) the trend breakpoint ($0.4) before declining back below trend at $5 (12x break above line). [Approximate figures taken from the chart, don't unfortunately have quick access to real value points]

Just for the shits, extrapolated to the current situation a similar bubble would mean hitting $24000 /coin before crashing back to trend at $3600 in April 2015. But I suspect this time the oscillation down will likely happen much sooner as it did in May this year.

The only valid trading advice, like rpietila and others have said many times is BUY BELOW TRENDLINE and only add to your coins before hitting your final target (should be in the $10k's or $100k's). Attempting to trade coins before that almost certainly destines you to complete failure in obtaining back the coins you sold and thought you'd soon buy back cheaper. I witnessed that once again today by burning my Bitfinex winnings of the past week to where I would think the trend would turn and correct at $600. A small price to pay at this stage for the realization that thou shalt not attempt margin trading against the trend with your precious coins .

Comparing disruption is not precisely clear - in my opinion the Internet conceptually subsumes Bitcoin.

I entirely agree with your appraisal of the phenomenon, and recall the similar enthusiasm that drove bitcoin prices from $1 to $32 in a few months back in the spring of 2011 - when there was hardly any concrete evidence of what would subsequently happen in today's underlying bitcoin economy.

Fun thread to read though. I'll say this though, with regards to price prediction of BTC:

We are witnessing price discovery (As Max Keiser has continually pointed out). And using traditional stock analysis tools (until we have more data) is dangerous. (But, the data is accruing and I can't argue with what has been presented in this thread with prices of $10,000 in a relatively short time span.) But let's look at what we are analyzing. BTC is not a stock (exclusively). Lets try to list what it is and see why traditional forms of analysis are lacking.

BTC is:

A stock (in the network, in a sense)
A currency
A payment protocol
A commodity
An asset
A protocol (And this is where things get scary)
Disruption in ways we can't foresee.
ETC. (Please add to this list)

A protocol that most likely can't be made illegal. And this protocol implements a blockchain. And this blockchain can be used for a host of other functions:
Ownership tracking (e.g. stocks, property, etc.), Voting, etc.

So, when we use traditional stock analysis tools to look at BTC, we must remember that BTC is not JUST a stock, currency, etc. I laugh when I hear "MACD is crossing. Things looking overbought." That often held true, but we can see that rules are being broken and then further defined.

Bill gates said it well (but he was saying what Eric Schmidt had already said): "I think it's a technical tour de force, but that's an area where governments are gonna maintain a dominant role." - As BTC grows, we will see the government, banks, insititutional structures perhaps attack it. Depends on if it saves us and nullifies them. And BTC can (and probably is) being used as a form of economic warfar. The US brought down The Soviet Union in large part by bringing in counterfeit Rubles. China does not like owning so many inflated dollars and further seeing it as the world currency. See where I am going with this?

And as my signature states, BTC is so much more:

We are dealing with something who's force we may not see again in our lifetimes. And that is strange, for I thought the Internet was that and now I'm not so sure which is more Disruptive in the grand scale of things...

Enjoy the ride and congrats on taking part in the largest social experiment of all time (by the people and for the people),

Its About Sharing

 

Thanks. Sounds too risky for me. And now especially for Americans dealing with foreign banks given the FATCA requirements. If someone won't sell to me directly, I will have to stand on the sidelines.

BTC-e website states, that their bank may require some documentation to process wires.
Regarding, egopay and other options you will end up paying 3 to 5% or more in comissionsions alone.

Occam's razor is a fuzzy heuristic not a perfect truth, yet some of his summary is not what I think (and seems too complex to me also to be possible) and some of his summary is only what I conjectured not what I stated as fact. For example, I never postulated that Bitcoin was created by inept lower ranks of the elite such as central banks, as that would be too unlikely to organize and I conjecture Bitcoin was instead created with one of many results being destruction of the nation-state central banks (since the goal is to replace them with one-world central bank!)

One thing we can conclude factually beyond any doubt is that coin rewards decline asymptotically to <1% by 2033 and <0.2% by 2040 and so on. And that FACT allows a game theory that can not be denied as follows.


Until someone presents another game theory that shows how cartels won't do what they always do when a power vacuum opportunity is presented to them, then I conclude these are facts and the deniers are deluding themselves.

I think I have differentiated in my writing between my conjecture and facts. The above appears to be a fact.

It isn't amazing when readers confuse facts and fiction and then attribute only the fiction to the writer. That is the nature of public discourse in forums. Sound bites and groupthink work well. Whereas the exchange of critical thinking gets muddled across the wire. Sorry I don't have the time to get the communication perfect. I would rather write software code, since my past experience is my software speaks much louder in the market place than my forum discussions.

try third-world country exchanges, like btc-e.com, wire funds to the exchange, buy coins, done (you can travel there and open a local bank account, but that would be needed only if you want to withdraw). should not really be hard or expensive (I'd estimate a 2-3% overhead on conversion and transactions).

Hey AnonyMint!

Thank you for your intriguing perspective on current events. I have been reading some of your posts spread out across several threads and I feel like I still don't exactly understand what you are talking about. This could be, because you are talking about lots of things   

It seems to be that there are conspiracy theories involved - I love conspiracy theories. I don't mean this in a derogatory sort of way as in "I like to feel intellectually superior while making fun of conspiracy theorists." I consider myself a disciple of Robert Anton Wilsons thinking on conspiracy theories - that they are in his words "normal mammalian politics" and to deny their existence, or regard any of them as 100% true or 100% false is to engage in sloppy thinking.

I would like to see a thread summarizing the structure of the conspiracy you're trying to discuss. If your goal is to spread your idea(s) and get feedback, I feel that would be the way to go.

Here's what I understand from your posts so far:

(please correct me if I got anything mixed up)

- Bitcoin is a conspiracy by central bankers.
- The goal of the conspiracy is greater control over the monetary system.
- The goal is to be achieved by releasing Bitcoin into a cultural narrative based on the idea of Hegelian Thesis-Antithesis - where they control both the Thesis (current monetary system) and Antithesis (Bitcoin - a proposed alternative monetary system). This narrative is expected to produce huge amounts of concentrated wealth in the ranks of early adopters. With technological unemployment rendering ever larger portions of the population destitute, the bankers can then embark on a public witch-hunt campaign backed by popular opinion to steal said wealth.
- I am not sure whether you are suggesting that the central bankers have a way of tracking and/or stealing from Bitcoin users at whim?
- A potential solution sidestepping this scheme would be development of a truly anonymous alt-coin, which would allow the "smart capital" of people with a vision how to rebuild an economy to hide, while triggering a fast collapse of the old economy.
- You are working on the protocol to such an alt-coin?
- All of this involves (your old friend?) rpietila proposing socialist solutions, while you are talking about free-market solutions? I'm not sure I can detect any socialist leanings in rpietila.

Hope you can clarify these things. I have seen rpietila state before that your scenario is plausible and therefore worth investigating. I agree. We don't know the origin of the Bitcoin protocol so investigating any entity with the means and motivation to create the protocol seems therefore worthwhile. Also it's fun! Even though investigating your vision does feel like being a detective in a dark noir story about a desperate future 

Have people thought of the risk of moving BTC through exchanges when they are 1,000,000 or even hundrends of thousands a piece?

What's stopping an exchange from amassing hundreds of millions and just closing down. We have no reprocussions yet. Right now the price is so low (but getting there) that with the volume, they'll be moving sooooo much more money in the future.

Bookmarked this thread, very interesting indeed.

I like where you are going with this.  Please keep us informed, especially if there are holes to fill.

I figured someone would turn my own logic on that one against my argument.

Agreed while there is no viable alternative, then for the little guy it is better to buy Bitcoin than do nothing. My theory of concern applies more the large net worth investors (I actually stated that but it got buried in the discussion).

I don't want the hassle of taking a small position in BTC and then be subject to tax audit later because of it, it would just slow me down (especially that would force me back to USA which I haven't visited since 2006). If don't feel safe to buy in large size, then I am wasting my time.

Why would anyone see exponential growth of prices in speculation bubbles as abnormal? They are the norm. Look at Cisco and Microsoft stock price history.

What is abnormal is to expect prices to rise from fractions of a penny to $1,000,000. Also the rate of doubling with Bitcoin may be abnormal(i.e. the exponent in the rate of price growth), but I didn't verify by comparing it against for example the Cisco and Microsoft cases. Perhaps the rate of doubling is what causes people to say Bitcoin is in a bubble when in fact it is just on trendline as all bubbles do. Bubbles crash when their nominal rate of increase becomes unsustainable, that is why I say not to worry about a bubble top until BTC reaches $trillion(s) or thereabouts.

And that $1,000,000 outcome is not yet assured. It would be highly abnormal if it is reached. I can think of no example in history except perhaps the Tulip Mania (did it reach that range of extremes?).

Variable and short-term analysis seems to me to be the antithesis of sound and rational tax and retirement planning, but heck what do I know since I haven't even begun my planning for retirement.

A very good analogy! People rejecting bitcoin now remind me of that. Everybody is given a way out of the upcoming financial devastation, but most people stubbornly reject it as a false gift from the god of the machine. But this one is actually here to help You just need a little bit of faith, that's all.

I thought I was done in this thread, but I do need to respond to the thread owner my friend Risto...


Well I like facts, not fiction.

The positive is that for example China has huge pent-up prosperity just waiting to burst upon the world, once the cronies release the masses from their FX controls and the imbalances that has created. You can read mpettis.com to understand the nature of these structural imbalances well. Ditto India, and most of the developing world.

So I actually have a very positive outlook. But to get there, requires making the right decisions. When the flood is rising and God sends you a boat and you say, "no thanks, I trust God to save me", then he sends you a helicopter and you repeat, "no thanks, I trust God to save me".

So then who can you blame if God sent me to warn you?

I wouldn't be posting here and planning to do something if I didn't think we can win. I only play a strong hand, otherwise I don't play.


True but imo misses the point. Overall their control is always increasing (on trend), because the trend of humans relying less on themselves or their local tribe and relying more on the central government is increasing.

Rothschilds et al profits from the fundamental game theory of big government (and I see you've seen my point at link below):

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3583722


This is expected by the game theory. History demonstrates it to be true over and over.

The difference now is they have technology that is so invasive of our privacy. We even need to remember to remove the battery from our mobile lest they turn it on remotely and track everything.


They have more abundant resources than they need when you propose to make 7 billion people destitute with 1/2 of world's wealth going to Bitcoins created in the first 4 years. How many people does it take to kill each Bitcoiner? And they won't kill you, rather my hypothesis is they will enact laws that redistribute your wealth back to the system. They will spread the idea in the media that we must take it all back from the speculators, i.e. "tax the rich", "operation wallstreet oppose the top 1%", "we are the 99%". Did you forget recent riots and events. And of course who will take most of the wealth the government confiscates from the Bitcoiner? (not the people, the people only get debt, toxic healthcare, etc)

Many of you will become corrupted to save your ass, you will agree to join their system to avoid prosecution. This is how they laugh at the silly goldbugs.


That is not codified in law. FBI did not rule on tax issues.

Attorneys speak from both sides of their mouth. Always look for the loophole.


I never postulated slaughter of Bitcoiners. I wrote prison, or at least destitute and a lifelong debt to the government (which might feel almost like a prison especially if they restrict your travel such as no passport as US Senator Feinstein has proposed until you can pay). Yes it is just a theory. I could be wrong. Feinstein is head of the Congressional committee that oversees the NSA.

The megadeath I am referring to is what socialism does periodically to the masses and how that will happen this time is always unpredictable.


Rather I will attempt to play the game in a much smarter way. They have attuned my senses to my strengths. Following the herd was never one of my strengths. I was always early. This time I am early again, even though it looks for the moment I am late.

As I said upthread, I don't blame Bitcoiners, since there is no viable alternative. That needs to be rectified.


Agreed. Remember the exponential curve (which looks linear on the log axis) is a huge bubble at the end. It can even be decelerating and still look like an increase on the non-log chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CSCO&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=


Good for those who want to play the wiggles.

But in the end, the big picture choices matter and the wiggles don't.