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Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 18. (Read 118242 times)

legendary
Activity: 2282
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Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
November 29, 2013, 06:56:16 PM
@rpietila. Will you make a new graph with a new trend line when the November figures are in?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
November 29, 2013, 01:54:03 PM
In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin

It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?

I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.

A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
November 29, 2013, 01:27:24 PM
In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin

It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
November 29, 2013, 04:55:34 AM
Two days more, then we will have November average, which looks quite different from October.

Also I received information from sirius, he said that definitely the first forex transaction involving Bitcoin happened in early 2009 and he was a counterpart. He gave away 5,000 bitcoins and received a certificate for $5. At that time Bitcoin "did not have even 10 users". Do you think we should try to populate the "2009-early 2010" section with better data or not, including this one?

In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin
hero member
Activity: 503
Merit: 501
November 26, 2013, 07:27:40 PM
Possible SantaClaus rally up to that green triangle before new years.

Pardon those dots, the orange ones are bearish calls and bullish are green @ tradingview charting.

sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
November 26, 2013, 05:11:09 PM
@rpietila

brilliant, I agree with you.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
November 26, 2013, 04:31:58 AM
That confirms my expectation of a price peak 2015 +/- 1 year, i.e. I don't expect we make it to 2017 before Bitcoin's bubble has collapsed. This is my opinion. No way Bitcoin makes it to $1 million per BTC, because that would be a $20 trillion market cap which is much larger chunk of the global net worth than I think is realistic for what what I view to be an irrational mania not supported by fundamental value of a currency.

You told some time back that you would not sell your experience to me at any cheap price. What part of your experience is only valuable in the context of Internet? What would you say is the value of Internet to you, or to an average person?

Indeed the internet was able to give me a much larger market. Before the internet I was able to sell 30,000 copies of WordUp yet had to use distributors (who took a large %), do physical manufacturing and shipping, etc.. Upon the arrival of the internet, I was able to distribute 1 million freeware copies of CoolPage (roughly the same unit sales as WordUp though but no middle man other than the payment processors so much higher profit and less time wasted). The internet reflects the growth in the usage of the computer also.

As for me, I am able to live without a good health. I would pay much to gain one, though.

Seriously Risto, order 5000 IU Vitamin D3 tablets produced from wool's oil. This is a fundamental hormone of the immune system, so it will deal with almost any health issue systemically, even lifts mood. I don't know the specifics of your health issue, but I would be probably dead or wallowing in bed if I hadn't discovered the D3 in August for my auto-immune condition. You can go up to 30,000 IU daily for about 30 days before toxicity to the liver. About 10,000 IU daily sustained. Best to monitor liver above that. Don't intake calcium (milk, cheese, etc) while supplementing in high doses. Consider Vit K2 simultaneously.

http://www.vitamindwiki.com/VitaminDWiki

http://www.vitamindwiki.com/Hypothesis+of+Autoimmunity+which+includes+Barr+Virus+and+Vitamin+D+Deficiency+%E2%80%93+2012

But I don't own a house, have a car, or TV, or coffee maker, even though I could buy those things. They are negative value to me.

Agreed material things burden me.

I am programming out of house without any furniture except a bed, eroded wooden table I found in the back yard, a chair, a ref, and an aircon. My beat up 2003 model year diesel SUV sits outside, because I can't travel efficiently to go eat without it.

My SUV serves as my closet for my clothes, basketball, bottled water supply, etc.

Without Internet, the world would go back to information repression. Dark ages. Let's say I value the freedom of Internet to $1 million.

I value it at maybe $billions. Actually priceless as you say. Agreed $1 million is conservative. I generated more than that in (properly) inflation adjusted dollars 1998 - 2006 on the internet.

In actuality I value it much more, because instead of going to work, I spend my days solidifying the Internet by posting valuable free information there. I would make much more money than $1 million by going to work and scheming something that profits me in the expense of others.

I think you are involved in a scheme now, perhaps not consciously as you may really believe in Bitcoin as a good thing and not see what I see that is an evil thing in its current multiple failure modes.

But difference of opinion and analysis that is what makes a market, so I will agree to disagree.

I think Bitcoin brings even more important things to the game than Internet. It is the coercion-free money (transfer protocol) of the Internet,

I entirely disagree. I think it not at all coercion-resistant. That is the main reason I turned against it. That is why I wrote the article Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch. And then after that it became apparent to me that the transactions couldn't scale for numerous reason both technical and economics (concentration of holdings).

and capable of bringing such abundance and freedom that the oppressive structures of the world would just lose their grip. Vote, or exit. Bitcoin enables exit in actuality for large groups of brilliant people,

That is why I am uber sad and motivated to not let Bitcoin take down all of us. Without us, the internet will take a heavy blow. I see a very serious evil behind Bitcoin's flaws. You are cutting to the core of it.

Whether you agree or disagree with me, at least I hope you understand my motivation is based on the same concept that you claim motivates you. It is just we see the prospective scenery differently at the moment.

whereas PM's only enabled exit for very few (like you and me), and those could not leverage their exit any way. Internet enabled exit for VC investors (pun), but their money sits in the controlled financial instruments. Bitcoin is the most important exit, considering everything that has been available so far.

Agreed a major conceptual advance, but in my opinion (analysis, which I have bared for all to read and attempt to refute) the design is not what we actually need to accomplish that conceptual utopia.

So what is my net worth calculation? Health. Knowledge. Most of the other things are worth zero (and for this reason I don't have them).

Exactly.

Oh yes, and some financial wealth, most of it in bitcoins.

I remember the Parable of the Talents. These bits are only on loan for us to maximize results with. It is about advancing knowledge and health.


Is it so difficult to think that the Internet is worth a double-digit percentage of the world? The world is valued at $400T, which does not include Internet.

Bitcoin is not the internet. In my opinion is a trojan that can severely damage the internet.


I cannot easily dream how Bitcoin protocol in practicality changes the world (any more than I was able to grasp how many industries were revolutionized by Internet before it started to happen), but I can say that $6T, gold's market cap, is only realistic in the case that Bitcoin does not turn out to be more than digital gold.

It surely will spawn something. But it won't necessarily be Bitcoin. As Peter Schiff said today, do you remember all the search engines before google, such as Yahoo, Ask Jeeves, Altavista, Excite, etc..


If it really takes off, it makes most of the valued structures in the world obsolete (the same way as I sold the cars and did not buy a TV even for free). The real limit (in mathematical sense, limit is the absolute upper bound) for Bitcoin's value is more than 50% of the world.

Google is arguably more influential on the internet than Bitcoin and no one is arguing for 50% of the world.

Your equating of Bitcoin == internet is illogical. The internet is a zillion things, not one thing. If ever it became one thing, then it won't be the internet any more.

I made my worst investing decisions when I was so sick in 2012. I lost $75,000. I think you are in a similar foggy, haze with your equating of internet == Bitcoin.


In Old Testament times, the property rights of land could not be enforced, or were not applicable in cases that land was only used for herding. The technology was uniform and there was no capital stock (material or immaterial). The wealth of people consisted of cattle, salt, cloths and garments, and gold and silver. The gold and silver accounted for more than half of all the wealth (including land!).

Perhaps we are entering in an age where most of people's wealth is again in most hidable, most protable, most usable form, as the industrial age and its huge capital requirements give way to Internet based businesses with immaterial capital, capital which can be created directly from knowledge, by mixing in only a trivial amount of money, which is ubiquituous anyway.

Yes and I know exactly what form it is in. Knowledge. You carry it with you. It can't be stolen, you can't lose it, and it is not fungible.


Soon everybody is so rich that money will only be used to buy groceries. The more interesting things of this life will not be (able to be) bought with money, any more than they are now. The difference is that nobody will be out of groceries Smiley

Exactly. Our knowledge will be unique and highly sought after, because we love diversity. As an example, listen a new song you love 500 times. You will love it much less. Diversity of creation is God's creation.

But standing between now and that utopia is a very menancing threat. That a simple or super majority humans are not ready for this transition and the governments are bankrupt and will fight for that old world.

We will first crash the globe.

For example, China will let the Yuan float between now and 2020, and it will rise in value as China transitions away from subsidizing exports to a more balanced economy with consumers reaping growth. Yet to get there will crash the exports along with the crashing western debt bubble. Thus China will rebalance by shrinking the misallocated export and fixed capital investment (and SOEs) sectors, and the consumer sector which is small will grow but not enough nominally to offset that collapse in the wasteful sectors that must die. This will be a contribution to global contagion coming after 2015.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
November 26, 2013, 03:47:25 AM
That confirms my expectation of a price peak 2015 +/- 1 year, i.e. I don't expect we make it to 2017 before Bitcoin's bubble has collapsed. This is my opinion. No way Bitcoin makes it to $1 million per BTC, because that would be a $20 trillion market cap which is much larger chunk of the global net worth than I think is realistic for what what I view to be an irrational mania not supported by fundamental value of a currency.

You told some time back that you would not sell your experience to me at any cheap price. What part of your experience is only valuable in the context of Internet? What would you say is the value of Internet to you, or to an average person?

As for me, I am able to live without a good health. I would pay much to gain one, though.

But I don't own a house, have a car, or TV, or coffee maker, even though I could buy those things. They are negative value to me.

Without Internet, the world would go back to information repression. Dark ages. Let's say I value the freedom of Internet to $1 million. In actuality I value it much more, because instead of going to work, I spend my days solidifying the Internet by posting valuable free information there. I would make much more money than $1 million by going to work and scheming something that profits me in the expense of others.

I think Bitcoin brings even more important things to the game than Internet. It is the coercion-free money (transfer protocol) of the Internet, and capable of bringing such abundance and freedom that the oppressive structures of the world would just lose their grip. Vote, or exit. Bitcoin enables exit in actuality for large groups of brilliant people, whereas PM's only enabled exit for very few (like you and me), and those could not leverage their exit any way. Internet enabled exit for VC investors (pun), but their money sits in the controlled financial instruments. Bitcoin is the most important exit, considering everything that has been available so far.

So what is my net worth calculation? Health. Knowledge. Most of the other things are worth zero (and for this reason I don't have them). Oh yes, and some financial wealth, most of it in bitcoins.
 
Is it so difficult to think that the Internet is worth a double-digit percentage of the world? The world is valued at $400T, which does not include Internet. I cannot easily dream how Bitcoin protocol in practicality changes the world (any more than I was able to grasp how many industries were revolutionized by Internet before it started to happen), but I can say that $6T, gold's market cap, is only realistic in the case that Bitcoin does not turn out to be more than digital gold.

If it really takes off, it makes most of the valued structures in the world obsolete (the same way as I sold the cars and did not buy a TV even for free). The real limit (in mathematical sense, limit is the absolute upper bound) for Bitcoin's value is more than 50% of the world.

In Old Testament times, the property rights of land could not be enforced, or were not applicable in cases that land was only used for herding. The technology was uniform and there was no capital stock (material or immaterial). The wealth of people consisted of cattle, salt, cloths and garments, and gold and silver. The gold and silver accounted for more than half of all the wealth (including land!).

Perhaps we are entering in an age where most of people's wealth is again in most hidable, most protable, most usable form, as the industrial age and its huge capital requirements give way to Internet based businesses with immaterial capital, capital which can be created directly from knowledge, by mixing in only a trivial amount of money, which is ubiquituous anyway.

Soon everybody is so rich that money will only be used to buy groceries. The more interesting things of this life will not be (able to be) bought with money, any more than they are now. The difference is that nobody will be out of groceries Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 260
Merit: 251
November 25, 2013, 11:15:28 PM
Using rpietilas trend line the price reaches  $1000 in May 2014, $10,000 in April 2015 and $300,000 in August 2016.
Beeing totally crappy at math I wonder if someone could please tell me when it reaches respectively 100,000 USD 1000,000 USD 1000,000,000 (billion) and 1000,000,000,000 (trillion) USD using that trend line.
Yes, I realize it will never go that high, but I'm just interested in the hypothetical dates.

I also wonder if anyone could please tell me when a BTC firs hit (on Bitstamp) respectively 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, 100 and 500 USD.


From the btctrend.py script introduced earlier in the thread based upon rpietila's trendline, here are your requested milestones:

$ python btctrend.py 2016-02-16
100640.41

$ python btctrend.py 2017-01-13
1006228.87

$ python btctrend.py 2019-09-30
1000153517.46

$ python btctrend.py 2022-06-19
1005387157377.89

For the second set of numbers, I'd recommend checking out justusranvier's "milestones" thread.

edit: kdrop22 is right. I would never actually expect to see a trillion dollars per coin unless the US turns into Zimbabwe. I don't think there's that much wealth in circulation in the world.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
November 25, 2013, 11:11:03 PM
Using rpietilas trend line the price reaches  $1000 in May 2014, $10,000 in April 2015 and $300,000 in August 2016.
Beeing totally crappy at math I wonder if someone could please tell me when it reaches respectively 100,000 USD 1000,000 USD 1000,000,000 (billion) and 1000,000,000,000 (trillion) USD using that trend line.
Yes, I realize it will never go that high, but I'm just interested in the hypothetical dates.

I also wonder if anyone could please tell me when a BTC firs hit (on Bitstamp) respectively 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, 100 and 500 USD.


While it would be very easy to extrapolate after Aug 2016 and provide you the answer. I would caution against doing so. My assumptions at this point is that exponential growth will hold, anywhere from 2 to 3 years, after that we will switch over to a more linear growth model.
Note: See previous posts on this thread by Slipperyslope on the S-curve model.

full member
Activity: 122
Merit: 100
November 25, 2013, 08:37:56 PM
And in the end your resolution requirements can never be high enough because of the disproportionate role of tail events that are difficult to predict and the psychological bias implicit in reduction to theory that favors certainty and denies ambiguity (because of death anxiety). In other words:
What you are saying is not coming through. Black swans are quite common globally, but rare within single constricted systems. FAPP we need to take the risk to omit them - and suffer the eventual consequences without whining when we repeat that risk over and over again until the unlikely becomes nearly certain on a personal scale.

Black swans are rare by definition, that's the point. We can make our thinking more robust to black swans by understanding that there will always be a gap between concepts and being, yet the gap is not so wide as to make concepts useless, nor is it so small as to make them coextensive. It's simply a matter of hoping for the best, and preparing for the worst.  
member
Activity: 91
Merit: 10
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
November 25, 2013, 11:30:49 AM
Very interesting post and graphics, thanks!
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
November 24, 2013, 10:06:24 PM
Risto if am I not mistaken it appears to me the volatility is rising?

What would rising volatility tell you, if anything about a trading market?

A warning sign, and an indication to take a look to the support levels.

However this is bitcoin...this time its different.  Wink
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
November 24, 2013, 04:01:39 PM
Anyone want to check what is the volume weighted price so far this month?

And should we change the weighting? Currently it is 100% Bitstamp. I think it is the best if we want to have 100% one exchange. Do we?
hero member
Activity: 905
Merit: 1001
November 24, 2013, 03:55:54 PM
watching this Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
November 24, 2013, 03:38:37 PM
Yeah it's true that these numbers get so astronomical that it hardly matters anyway. It's going to be "lots and lots of cash."
legendary
Activity: 1145
Merit: 1001
November 24, 2013, 03:36:30 PM
This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existant markets?

One almost universal mistake made in long-term price targets is the ceteris paribus fallacy. The idea is that Bitcoin will be used for everything that gold and fiat money is used for today, and everything else will stay the same. The reasoning goes, "If Bitcoin takes over the world, the price will reflect the value of what it took over: gold's functionality as a store of value, PayPal's transactional functionality, and the money supply of the world's currencies." Such estimates generally put the target price between $100,000 and several million dollars (in today's dollars).

That's a bit like arguing, in 1994, that email will be worth the value of the postal system.

Looking to a future year when the entire global economy is denominated in bitcoins, 1 BTC won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of today's global output. It won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of whatever the global output would have been in that year if Bitcoin had never arisen. It will be worth ~1/21,000,000 of the global output of a Bitcoin-enabled world.

A world with friction-free commerce, small and relatively much more efficient government (if any), absolutely booming business thanks to predictable "monetary policy" and market-defined interest rates and free stock markets, and a radically internationalized division of labor. Any one of those four should be enough to increase global output by an order of magnitude, if not more. But all four of them at once? Not to mention all the future applications like escrow, smart property, assurance contracts, distributed autonomous corporations (DACs) and autonomous agents, etc.

Given all that, and taking into account how all of this is included in the binary bet, I think the target price should be in the billions per coin. The timescale is less clear, but probably within a decade after mainstream adoption is reached.

Anyone with an mBTC will be set for life.

EDIT: To be clear, the price target for initial mainstream adoption probably is between $100,000 and $10,000,000 or so. I'm guessing $1 million as a conservative target. But once the dust settles we start into the economy-wide effects of a Bitcoin world and continue up a few more orders of magnitude in not very many years.

While I agree this is true. I think people are just being conservative using today's economy as basis for calculating the expected future value of Bitcoin.
The numbers are so big and unimaginable anyway, what's a few orders of magnitude.

I'm imagining the news stories in 15 years when somebody finds a forgotten wallet with a few Bitcoins.
"Instant multi-billionaire!"
 Grin Grin Grin
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
November 24, 2013, 03:35:41 PM
As long as Bitcoin retains dominance, the altcoins will only ever account for a few percent of the total cryptocurrency market cap. Compared to the exponential growth and multiple orders of magnitude of error in our projections, that percentage should be negligible from where we stand now.
member
Activity: 68
Merit: 10
November 24, 2013, 03:03:18 PM
This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existant markets?

One almost universal mistake made in long-term price targets is the ceteris paribus fallacy. The idea is that Bitcoin will be used for everything that gold and fiat money is used for today, and everything else will stay the same. The reasoning goes, "If Bitcoin takes over the world, the price will reflect the value of what it took over: gold's functionality as a store of value, PayPal's transactional functionality, and the money supply of the world's currencies." Such estimates generally put the target price between $100,000 and several million dollars (in today's dollars).

That's a bit like arguing, in 1994, that email will be worth the value of the postal system.

Looking to a future year when the entire global economy is denominated in bitcoins, 1 BTC won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of today's global output. It won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of whatever the global output would have been in that year if Bitcoin had never arisen. It will be worth ~1/21,000,000 of the global output of a Bitcoin-enabled world.

A world with friction-free commerce, small and relatively much more efficient government (if any), absolutely booming business thanks to predictable "monetary policy" and market-defined interest rates and free stock markets, and a radically internationalized division of labor. Any one of those four should be enough to increase global output by an order of magnitude, if not more. But all four of them at once? Not to mention all the future applications like escrow, smart property, assurance contracts, distributed autonomous corporations (DACs) and autonomous agents, etc.

Given all that, and taking into account how all of this is included in the binary bet, I think the target price should be in the billions per coin. The timescale is less clear, but probably within a decade after mainstream adoption is reached.

Anyone with an mBTC will be set for life.

EDIT: To be clear, the price target for initial mainstream adoption probably is between $100,000 and $10,000,000 or so. I'm guessing $1 million as a conservative target. But once the dust settles we start into the economy-wide effects of a Bitcoin world and continue up a few more orders of magnitude in not very many years.

Newbies remark here: we have to consider other cryptocurrencies as well, not only Bitcoin...

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