Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 18. (Read 118205 times)

@rpietila. Will you make a new graph with a new trend line when the November figures are in?

I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.

A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.

It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?

Two days more, then we will have November average, which looks quite different from October.

Also I received information from sirius, he said that definitely the first forex transaction involving Bitcoin happened in early 2009 and he was a counterpart. He gave away 5,000 bitcoins and received a certificate for $5. At that time Bitcoin "did not have even 10 users". Do you think we should try to populate the "2009-early 2010" section with better data or not, including this one?

In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  

Possible SantaClaus rally up to that green triangle before new years.

Pardon those dots, the orange ones are bearish calls and bullish are green @ tradingview charting.

@rpietila

brilliant, I agree with you.

Indeed the internet was able to give me a much larger market. Before the internet I was able to sell 30,000 copies of WordUp yet had to use distributors (who took a large %), do physical manufacturing and shipping, etc.. Upon the arrival of the internet, I was able to distribute 1 million freeware copies of CoolPage (roughly the same unit sales as WordUp though but no middle man other than the payment processors so much higher profit and less time wasted). The internet reflects the growth in the usage of the computer also.


Seriously Risto, order 5000 IU Vitamin D3 tablets produced from wool's oil. This is a fundamental hormone of the immune system, so it will deal with almost any health issue systemically, even lifts mood. I don't know the specifics of your health issue, but I would be probably dead or wallowing in bed if I hadn't discovered the D3 in August for my auto-immune condition. You can go up to 30,000 IU daily for about 30 days before toxicity to the liver. About 10,000 IU daily sustained. Best to monitor liver above that. Don't intake calcium (milk, cheese, etc) while supplementing in high doses. Consider Vit K2 simultaneously.

http://www.vitamindwiki.com/VitaminDWiki

http://www.vitamindwiki.com/Hypothesis+of+Autoimmunity+which+includes+Barr+Virus+and+Vitamin+D+Deficiency+%E2%80%93+2012


Agreed material things burden me.

I am programming out of house without any furniture except a bed, eroded wooden table I found in the back yard, a chair, a ref, and an aircon. My beat up 2003 model year diesel SUV sits outside, because I can't travel efficiently to go eat without it.

My SUV serves as my closet for my clothes, basketball, bottled water supply, etc.


I value it at maybe $billions. Actually priceless as you say. Agreed $1 million is conservative. I generated more than that in (properly) inflation adjusted dollars 1998 - 2006 on the internet.


I think you are involved in a scheme now, perhaps not consciously as you may really believe in Bitcoin as a good thing and not see what I see that is an evil thing in its current multiple failure modes.

But difference of opinion and analysis that is what makes a market, so I will agree to disagree.


I entirely disagree. I think it not at all coercion-resistant. That is the main reason I turned against it. That is why I wrote the article Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch. And then after that it became apparent to me that the transactions couldn't scale for numerous reason both technical and economics (concentration of holdings).


That is why I am uber sad and motivated to not let Bitcoin take down all of us. Without us, the internet will take a heavy blow. I see a very serious evil behind Bitcoin's flaws. You are cutting to the core of it.

Whether you agree or disagree with me, at least I hope you understand my motivation is based on the same concept that you claim motivates you. It is just we see the prospective scenery differently at the moment.


Agreed a major conceptual advance, but in my opinion (analysis, which I have bared for all to read and attempt to refute) the design is not what we actually need to accomplish that conceptual utopia.


Exactly.


I remember the Parable of the Talents. These bits are only on loan for us to maximize results with. It is about advancing knowledge and health.


Bitcoin is not the internet. In my opinion is a trojan that can severely damage the internet.


It surely will spawn something. But it won't necessarily be Bitcoin. As Peter Schiff said today, do you remember all the search engines before google, such as Yahoo, Ask Jeeves, Altavista, Excite, etc..


Google is arguably more influential on the internet than Bitcoin and no one is arguing for 50% of the world.

Your equating of Bitcoin == internet is illogical. The internet is a zillion things, not one thing. If ever it became one thing, then it won't be the internet any more.

I made my worst investing decisions when I was so sick in 2012. I lost $75,000. I think you are in a similar foggy, haze with your equating of internet == Bitcoin.


Yes and I know exactly what form it is in. Knowledge. You carry it with you. It can't be stolen, you can't lose it, and it is not fungible.


Exactly. Our knowledge will be unique and highly sought after, because we love diversity. As an example, listen a new song you love 500 times. You will love it much less. Diversity of creation is God's creation.

But standing between now and that utopia is a very menancing threat. That a simple or super majority humans are not ready for this transition and the governments are bankrupt and will fight for that old world.

We will first crash the globe.

For example, China will let the Yuan float between now and 2020, and it will rise in value as China transitions away from subsidizing exports to a more balanced economy with consumers reaping growth. Yet to get there will crash the exports along with the crashing western debt bubble. Thus China will rebalance by shrinking the misallocated export and fixed capital investment (and SOEs) sectors, and the consumer sector which is small will grow but not enough nominally to offset that collapse in the wasteful sectors that must die. This will be a contribution to global contagion coming after 2015.

You told some time back that you would not sell your experience to me at any cheap price. What part of your experience is only valuable in the context of Internet? What would you say is the value of Internet to you, or to an average person?

As for me, I am able to live without a good health. I would pay much to gain one, though.

But I don't own a house, have a car, or TV, or coffee maker, even though I could buy those things. They are negative value to me.

Without Internet, the world would go back to information repression. Dark ages. Let's say I value the freedom of Internet to $1 million. In actuality I value it much more, because instead of going to work, I spend my days solidifying the Internet by posting valuable free information there. I would make much more money than $1 million by going to work and scheming something that profits me in the expense of others.

I think Bitcoin brings even more important things to the game than Internet. It is the coercion-free money (transfer protocol) of the Internet, and capable of bringing such abundance and freedom that the oppressive structures of the world would just lose their grip. Vote, or exit. Bitcoin enables exit in actuality for large groups of brilliant people, whereas PM's only enabled exit for very few (like you and me), and those could not leverage their exit any way. Internet enabled exit for VC investors (pun), but their money sits in the controlled financial instruments. Bitcoin is the most important exit, considering everything that has been available so far.

So what is my net worth calculation? Health. Knowledge. Most of the other things are worth zero (and for this reason I don't have them). Oh yes, and some financial wealth, most of it in bitcoins.
 
Is it so difficult to think that the Internet is worth a double-digit percentage of the world? The world is valued at $400T, which does not include Internet. I cannot easily dream how Bitcoin protocol in practicality changes the world (any more than I was able to grasp how many industries were revolutionized by Internet before it started to happen), but I can say that $6T, gold's market cap, is only realistic in the case that Bitcoin does not turn out to be more than digital gold.

If it really takes off, it makes most of the valued structures in the world obsolete (the same way as I sold the cars and did not buy a TV even for free). The real limit (in mathematical sense, limit is the absolute upper bound) for Bitcoin's value is more than 50% of the world.

In Old Testament times, the property rights of land could not be enforced, or were not applicable in cases that land was only used for herding. The technology was uniform and there was no capital stock (material or immaterial). The wealth of people consisted of cattle, salt, cloths and garments, and gold and silver. The gold and silver accounted for more than half of all the wealth (including land!).

Perhaps we are entering in an age where most of people's wealth is again in most hidable, most protable, most usable form, as the industrial age and its huge capital requirements give way to Internet based businesses with immaterial capital, capital which can be created directly from knowledge, by mixing in only a trivial amount of money, which is ubiquituous anyway.

Soon everybody is so rich that money will only be used to buy groceries. The more interesting things of this life will not be (able to be) bought with money, any more than they are now. The difference is that nobody will be out of groceries

From the btctrend.py script introduced earlier in the thread based upon rpietila's trendline, here are your requested milestones:

$ python btctrend.py 2016-02-16
100640.41

$ python btctrend.py 2017-01-13
1006228.87

$ python btctrend.py 2019-09-30
1000153517.46

$ python btctrend.py 2022-06-19
1005387157377.89

For the second set of numbers, I'd recommend checking out justusranvier's "milestones" thread.

edit: kdrop22 is right. I would never actually expect to see a trillion dollars per coin unless the US turns into Zimbabwe. I don't think there's that much wealth in circulation in the world.

While it would be very easy to extrapolate after Aug 2016 and provide you the answer. I would caution against doing so. My assumptions at this point is that exponential growth will hold, anywhere from 2 to 3 years, after that we will switch over to a more linear growth model.
Note: See previous posts on this thread by Slipperyslope on the S-curve model.

Black swans are rare by definition, that's the point. We can make our thinking more robust to black swans by understanding that there will always be a gap between concepts and being, yet the gap is not so wide as to make concepts useless, nor is it so small as to make them coextensive. It's simply a matter of hoping for the best, and preparing for the worst.  

Thank you.

Very interesting post and graphics, thanks!

A warning sign, and an indication to take a look to the support levels.

However this is bitcoin...this time its different. 

Anyone want to check what is the volume weighted price so far this month?

And should we change the weighting? Currently it is 100% Bitstamp. I think it is the best if we want to have 100% one exchange. Do we?

watching this

Yeah it's true that these numbers get so astronomical that it hardly matters anyway. It's going to be "lots and lots of cash."

While I agree this is true. I think people are just being conservative using today's economy as basis for calculating the expected future value of Bitcoin.
The numbers are so big and unimaginable anyway, what's a few orders of magnitude.

I'm imagining the news stories in 15 years when somebody finds a forgotten wallet with a few Bitcoins.
"Instant multi-billionaire!"
 

As long as Bitcoin retains dominance, the altcoins will only ever account for a few percent of the total cryptocurrency market cap. Compared to the exponential growth and multiple orders of magnitude of error in our projections, that percentage should be negligible from where we stand now.

Newbies remark here: we have to consider other cryptocurrencies as well, not only Bitcoin...