Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend - page 24. (Read 118205 times)

I just explained to you that a logistic model isn't applicable to speculation markets, yet it is applicable to bonafide technology adoption (e.g. the adoption of radio, TV, cars, cell phones, etc).

Rather in speculation markets, you see exponential growth in price, followed by a waterfall crash.

Don't conflate the adoption of crypto-currency in general (which is also a speculation and not certain) with the speculation that Bitcoin is all perfect.

Replacing a financial system that has been around for 100s of years with a new model for society requires much analysis. This is not as straightforward as the obvious benefit of a TV or cell phone. It seems the aggregate outcomes for Bitcoin are dystopian thus can't possibly be stable.

As an applied mathematician you should understand well that models are irrelevant if misapplied.

And thus I am not posting off-topic.

My third sentence and multiple usage of the word "harvester" indicated that I am not referring to "perpetual energy", but energy from the sun. The source of >99% our energy.

+1 Agreed.  Bring it to the appropriate thread. You (Anony) obviously have important thinking to share. I've read some of your writing, and you do raise many points worth exploring.

However, I'm not sure what you are trying to accomplish in general. You come across as confused, desperate for attention, paranoid and perhaps mentally unstable - and you are pissing people off left and right.
Is that what you are going for? I doubt it.

IMHO... (you did not ask, but here goes)

If you are trying to influence, you have a lot learn. I'm pretty forgiving, open minded, usually curious about new arguments,  but I'm already tired of your juvenile BS and blustery arrogance. Get over it and maybe you can actually be helpful to folks here.

If you are trying to extrovert your thoughts to get clearer yourself - which is what you have said-  I suggest you stay in the right thread, and at least be respectful - if you want to attract real thinking partners. Just throwing your feces around, showing off your "intelligence" does not help anybody, and just makes you more alienated than before.

Good luck.

Huh? 

Great!

My university degree is in applied mathematics. Please explain with what math you learned why a logistic function is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.

As I expected the usual perpetual motion delusions. Thanks for being honest.

You will soon see what I am doing. And I really need to stop talking.

So try to be fair if I am not around here to defend myself tit-for-tat.

Wealth is not what you pay bills with, that is salary or income. If you are wealthy, personal expenses are irrelevant.

To become and remain wealthy, what you are producing for society has to be outsized the average in value.

Indeed adoption of new technologies is usually logistic.

However, this assumes the technology is not threatening to society-at-large, which I have reasoned Bitcoin is.

Thus I am expecting is an unstable exponential growth, with a waterfall crash which is what we see in market speculation, not technology adoption.

Market speculation is identified characteristically by greed instead adoption of technology for personal use and efficiency.

I recently tried to buy some BTC anonymously and found out just how inefficient the process is (as in an entire day lost over $110 purchase).

Sorry but I am not hijacking, I am correcting your myopia.

If you want to talk math, I minored in math. No problem.

I do remember the verse, but it's referring to heaven and earth ain't it.

I agree somewhat.  I don't really care about wealth except the mortgage, power, internet and grocery stores keep asking for it.  So, I do need wealth for freedom.  But I don't really care whether I have 1 million, 10 million or 100 million as long as I can have the freedom to work on the things I want to and keep the above at bay.

And SlipperySlope, thank you very much for the graphs.  They are extremely enlightening.

By not seeing life with your negative attitude.

But to be honest, I don't know yet, I'm only 21, and I'm not at that stage in my life. Right now I'm learning. Economically speaking, it should be a simple matter of investing in things that will return more energy than that put in to create such an energy harvester. Who knows, maybe a solar harvester in orbit that can focus energy here, or I can fund research into asteroid mining. Perhaps I can work in neuroscience and help advance AI to the point that we can solve the problems we face today with greater ease.

What are you doing to make this place a better place?

First, I do not appreciate your hijack of this important thread.

Second, my post is about using a logistic function to model bitcoin prices. Perhaps your reasoning is shallow, e.g. drawing wrong conclusions at a glance. There is an excellent Wikipedia article that explains what a logistic function is - and explains its many uses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Seriously, if you do not understand the math I would be glad to teach it to you.

Concrete details please?

Because I've heard that nonsense many times and it never works out once we discuss the details. It is always some uneconomic delusion you are feeding yourself.

Tell me how? Enlighten me.

And with the freedom my wealth will afford me,  I can help build a better world where wealth is irrelevant.

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

Remember the larger your capital is, the less effectively you can invest it to good. This is just a fact that smaller things grow faster. Find the math in the links of my prior post.

More knowledge nearly always produces more good than more money. Money is just a claim on future labor, but the claim is only as valuable as your knowledge to deploy it.

This is why money eventually growing wings and flys away. It must be that way, else life stops advancing and dies. The wise return it back to society so it can be employed effectively sooner.


Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.

The key takeaway in my mind is the incentive for a strong altcoin is now unfathomably rich. It is unthinkable that an altcoin won't appear soon that significantly challenges Bitcoin. Luckily you will get some warning of that and time to evaluate.

If I were investing in BTC, I would be holding and buying as much as could on a regular basis and especially increasing purchases on significant dips. I am not investing in BTC because I think it is insane from a tax perspective when the G20 is planning to confiscate everything and there is not reliable anonymity in (nor that can be layered on top of) BTC (when considering the threat of jail time and targeting by the socialism as a "wealthy speculator" who caused the entire crisis). The anonymity we can layer on top of Bitcoin is maybe reliable 95% of the time if we are really careful (which most of you have no clue on), but 5% is just too risky considering the threat.

Gold fever tends to make people blind to the threats.

And I don't trust they won't clawback and raise taxes retroactively to past years! Governments do very crazy things when they implode.

It is a very dangerous time to have wealth.

If as the us dollar declines in relative value to Bitcoin and the assets of the masses don't appreciate in us dollars as fast as Bitcoin is, then they are being devalued. Bitcoin has already risen from pennies to $370 which is roughly 30,000x. If Bitcoin becomes the global currency, then it rises another 30,000x to get there, then the masses will be roughly 1/30,000 poorer, unless we also revalue their assets upwards simultaneously.

However, such an implosion of the us dollar will mean the global economy implodes so most assets will actually decline in value, since there are very few people who own Bitcoin to buy them (rich are conservative with investments and don't spend a high percentage of their wealth on discretionary items). Also most of the masses don't own any assets and are in net debt.

This is why the design of Bitcoin's coin reward supply is fatally flawed. If you don't distribute it out the masses, then you end up with dystopian outcomes.

I don't have time to tit-for-tat respond to every comment that appeared here since my prior post, so I will just refer them to the following two linked threads so they can read my rebuttals to their incorrect logic:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3571891

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3570718

My logistic analysis is akin to your own log regression analysis. It does not say much about the bubble fluctuations that we have seen in the past and expect in the future. Rather it suggests some average trends.

And could not agree more with your timing advice.

The speculative bubbles always see a blowoff top, which is characterized by steepening slope in the price curve (ie. "going parabolic" instead of just "exponential"). In this sense your curve can only be correct if we expect an overshoot of a hefty magnitude over the trendline. In 2011 the price reached 50x the trend, last spring 4 times, now we are already 1.3 times. If the final bubble is a mere 10 times the long-term valuation, we are talking about $50 million per coin. If otoh your line is used to predict the bubble top, it is drawn incorrectly from the general price trend.

If your point was to say that after 36-48 months we will start the ascension to Alpha Centauri, then we certainly agree, and the most sensible timing for purchase is NOW. 

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..



red - assume a $5,000,000 maximum bitcoin price when fully adopted by financial speculators
orange - $1,000,000
green - $100,000
blue - $40,000

I also re-fit each case to more accurately pass through the final price history data point. It is clear now that the exponential portion of the logistic curve, i.e. the straight line on the log chart, does not predict the maximum price. Here are the corresponding price targets summarized ...



The key result of this analysis is that we should not expect the current exponential growth of bitcoin prices to last more than 36-48 months - even under the most bullish imaginable scenario. Buy sooner rather than later is my obvious conclusion.

The shared spreadsheet containing commentary, calculations and charts can be viewed, or copy/edited, at ...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc

Perhaps.

I don't think we can rule it out. Therefore it is smart to take that scenario into account also. Regardless of whether Bitcoin was salted since the beginning or not, as long as central bankers rule the world, the more wealth you have in any kind or form, to be ignorant of central bankers is dangerous. But the fearmongering does not take us anywhere. Rather we should prepare how to use the incredible financial resources that will soon be at our disposal, to the benefit of mankind.

CB have coerced Bill Gates &co to give away their wealth to detrimental causes such as abortion clinics, vaccination, primary propaganda education, GMO, climate change, and the like. If we do likewise, Bitcoin did not bring much benefit. If we do nothing, same thing. Since I am more sure than ever that bitcoin's exchange rate will continue to go up, I have given up trying to make more of them, rather try to make the most benefit of them.

See my main thread also.