Buying 1.0 GOXBTC for BTC0.01
Will send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns
no offense... the odds are much better than thatWill send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns
i do not know why you are thinking so or from where your informations are coming...
i tried to analyze all informations to find out how high the odds are and came to conclusion that its not much higher than 2-3%.
You are right, its much better than 1goxBTC-->0.01BTC, but that what is going on in bitcoinbuilder is for sure loss-business for buyer.
speculating does not need facts, mostly rumors are enough. odds are anyway everybody's personal issue and for sure i´m not able to calculate your odds. so as always most important is to have:
possibly many facts (practically no real facts in case of gox);
hear/collect all rumors (lots of them out there);
have a bunch of intuition (very personal sensible skill);
Sort all this with bit of analysis skills (without that better don´t speculate);
set your own high/low limits (thats how you can measure your odds);
playing poker, you do not know your opposites cards (facts) neither, but if you are skipping calculating odds (winning chances) then better do not play poker...
if we would have ALL facts, we would not need to calculate odds.
What is your limited choice here? Gox dead to gox alive. Those odds would be 50% without more info.
Given the fact that we KNOW the cold wallets are still full and untouched, but we don't know if they can access them in the near future (again, 50%):
Chance for them to be alive and able to pay out: ? There are wayyy too many inputs there. you can't possibly even try to measure the odds.
